Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
open
Total volume
$6,895
$172 in 24h
Trades
221
Unique wallets
57
Liquidity
$2,591
Latest YES mid
33¢
Latest NO mid
67¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-13 11:01
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+34.0¢
(top1%: 84% YES on $625
vs crowd: 50% YES on $4.2K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 9 | $169 | $952 | $782 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $546 | $160 | +$385 |
| 🐟 Fish | 16 | $879 | $888 | $9 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 23 | $522 | $87 | +$435 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $527 | $98 | +$430 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 8 | $221 | $173 | +$48 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $86 | $77 | +$9 |
| Median | 7 | $178 | $596 | $418 |
| Below median | 9 | $117 | $28 | +$89 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | — | $227 | $227 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $72 | $701 | $629 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $29 | $12 | +$18 |
| unranked | 18 | $886 | $176 | +$710 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short-Term-Chopsticks 0x0749…6de9 | Yes | +2,152 | $702 | $702 | 13 | 06-10 21:59 |
| Determined-Gear 0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | +1,582 | $527 | $527 | 6 | 06-11 20:45 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +1,000 | $679 | $679 | 1 | 06-11 20:45 |
| Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | +584 | $386 | $728 | 10 | 06-08 01:53 |
| Essential-Subset 0x1ed8…37c1 | Yes | +540 | $175 | $175 | 7 | 06-02 19:29 |
| (anonymous) 0x770a…7d17 | Yes | +318 | $140 | $140 | 2 | 06-05 00:39 |
| Triangular-Increase 0x66a5…56cb | Yes | +300 | $96 | $96 | 2 | 06-11 22:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xedc6…20fc | Yes | +260 | $89 | $89 | 3 | 06-12 11:38 |
| Humming-Jiffy 0x4d6b…a7b4 | Yes | +200 | $62 | $62 | 2 | 06-11 22:33 |
| Reflecting-Marker 0xd2fa…ed3e | No | +200 | $110 | $110 | 2 | 05-29 09:01 |
| 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | +179 | $123 | $123 | 1 | 06-11 22:33 |
| Intent-Beck 0x08c9…a2ef | No | +159 | $109 | $109 | 2 | 06-09 05:12 |
| Worldly-Dump 0xc18b…3917 | Yes | +138 | $39 | $87 | 2 | 06-08 01:53 |
| Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | +134 | $87 | $113 | 3 | 06-10 05:33 |
| Ordinary-Confectionery 0xa5e3…4d7e | No | +103 | $68 | $128 | 4 | 06-01 13:28 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +91 | $29 | $29 | 6 | 06-11 20:45 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +74 | $21 | $123 | 10 | 06-10 14:24 |
| Suburban-Ecliptic 0x476c…ce52 | No | +73 | $49 | $49 | 2 | 06-09 09:30 |
| Overdue-Premeditation 0xdccb…ea1a | No | +43 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 06-01 08:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xd87e…e87d | Yes | +39 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 06-12 00:17 |
| Medium-Procurement 0x6919…da67 | Yes | +30 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-01 13:28 |
| Elegant-Guacamole 0x7dd1…a7f6 | No | +30 | $21 | $21 | 3 | 06-13 11:01 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +19 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-08 01:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x62e3…9696 | Yes | +19 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-02 08:30 |
| Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | Yes | +15 | $5 | $11 | 4 | 06-05 19:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | +14 | $4 | $26 | 12 | 06-13 11:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x3349…2afe | Yes | +14 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-04 09:48 |
| Closed-Rating 0x505e…affc | Yes | +13 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-05 18:48 |
| Advanced-Airmail 0x94d7…868b | No | +12 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 11:38 |
| Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | No | +12 | $7 | $38 | 6 | 06-12 11:38 |
| Ready-Configuration 0xe448…92d7 | Yes | +6 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-06 08:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x4e4e…7c90 | No | +6 | $3 | $13 | 4 | 06-05 07:08 |
| Puny-Cheesecake 0xaca4…b335 | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-06 06:18 |
| Smug-Effacement 0xaf13…72ca | Yes | +5 | $2 | $5 | 3 | 06-08 01:48 |
| Joyful-Monsoon 0x0b34…ffc3 | No | +3 | $2 | $24 | 6 | 06-01 03:49 |
| Adorable-Mirror 0x00a1…0304 | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-28 21:02 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +2 | $-4 | $140 | 23 | 06-12 00:17 |
| Indelible-Roast 0x9231…2212 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-31 11:25 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +1 | $-0 | $80 | 5 | 06-13 10:59 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | +1 | $-1 | $33 | 4 | 06-05 10:37 |
| Awkward-Coevolution 0x2d27…234d | No | +1 | $0 | $10 | 2 | 05-31 02:57 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 11:01:12 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 31¢ | $3 | 0x402f12… |
| 06-13 11:01:12 | Elegant-Guacamole 0x7dd1…a7f6 | No | BUY | 10 | 69¢ | $7 | 0x402f12… |
| 06-13 10:59:19 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 4 | 31¢ | $1 | 0xf3f93d… |
| 06-13 10:59:19 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 6 | 69¢ | $5 | 0xf3f93d… |
| 06-13 10:59:19 | Elegant-Guacamole 0x7dd1…a7f6 | No | BUY | 10 | 69¢ | $7 | 0xf3f93d… |
| 06-13 10:58:06 | Elegant-Guacamole 0x7dd1…a7f6 | No | BUY | 10 | 69¢ | $7 | 0xa93c21… |
| 06-13 10:58:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 10 | 69¢ | $7 | 0xa93c21… |
| 06-12 13:42:22 | Studious-Way 0x4907…cdc2 | No | SELL | 7 | 65¢ | $5 | 0x5b7bb6… |
| 06-12 13:42:22 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 35¢ | $2 | 0x5b7bb6… |
| 06-12 11:38:04 | (anonymous) 0xedc6…20fc | Yes | BUY | 2 | 31¢ | $1 | 0x9be389… |
| 06-12 11:38:04 | Studious-Way 0x4907…cdc2 | No | BUY | 7 | 69¢ | $5 | 0x9be389… |
| 06-12 11:38:04 | Beloved-Laryngitis-Hunger 0xb2d5…ff8b | No | SELL | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0x9be389… |
| 06-12 11:38:03 | Advanced-Airmail 0x94d7…868b | No | BUY | 12 | 68¢ | $8 | 0x329bc4… |
| 06-12 11:38:03 | Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | No | SELL | 12 | 68¢ | $8 | 0x329bc4… |
| 06-12 00:17:30 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x237d92… |
| 06-12 00:17:30 | (anonymous) 0xd87e…e87d | Yes | BUY | 39 | 34¢ | $13 | 0x237d92… |
| 06-12 00:17:30 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 2 | 33¢ | $0 | 0x237d92… |
| 06-12 00:17:30 | Beloved-Laryngitis-Hunger 0xb2d5…ff8b | No | BUY | 5 | 65¢ | $3 | 0x237d92… |
| 06-12 00:17:30 | Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | No | BUY | 12 | 68¢ | $8 | 0x237d92… |
| 06-12 00:17:30 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 15 | 65¢ | $10 | 0x237d92… |
| 06-11 22:33:10 | Triangular-Increase 0x66a5…56cb | Yes | BUY | 39 | 32¢ | $12 | 0xd2f581… |
| 06-11 22:33:10 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | BUY | 179 | 69¢ | $123 | 0xd2f581… |
| 06-11 22:33:10 | Humming-Jiffy 0x4d6b…a7b4 | Yes | BUY | 135 | 31¢ | $42 | 0xd2f581… |
| 06-11 22:33:10 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | No | SELL | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0xd2f581… |
| 06-11 20:45:30 | Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | BUY | 1,000 | 68¢ | $679 | 0xfe731f… |
| 06-11 20:45:30 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 32¢ | $19 | 0xfe731f… |
| 06-11 20:45:30 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 43 | 68¢ | $29 | 0xfe731f… |
| 06-11 20:45:30 | Triangular-Increase 0x66a5…56cb | Yes | BUY | 261 | 32¢ | $84 | 0xfe731f… |
| 06-11 20:45:30 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | No | SELL | 16 | 68¢ | $11 | 0xfe731f… |
| 06-11 20:45:30 | Determined-Gear 0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | BUY | 620 | 32¢ | $199 | 0xfe731f… |
| 06-10 21:59:00 | Short-Term-Chopsticks 0x0749…6de9 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xa185f7… |
| 06-10 21:59:00 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xa185f7… |
| 06-10 21:57:30 | Short-Term-Chopsticks 0x0749…6de9 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x5f9103… |
| 06-10 21:57:30 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x5f9103… |
| 06-10 21:57:18 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 6 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x0fd583… |
| 06-10 21:57:18 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 45 | 67¢ | $30 | 0x0fd583… |
| 06-10 21:57:18 | Short-Term-Chopsticks 0x0749…6de9 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 33¢ | $17 | 0x0fd583… |
| 06-10 14:24:12 | Safe-Family 0xf350…f3ff | Yes | SELL | 570 | 32¢ | $184 | 0x1474e3… |
| 06-10 14:24:12 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 24 | 32¢ | $8 | 0x1474e3… |
| 06-10 14:24:12 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 37 | 32¢ | $12 | 0x1474e3… |
| 06-10 14:24:12 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 9 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x1474e3… |
| 06-10 14:24:12 | Determined-Gear 0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | BUY | 500 | 32¢ | $161 | 0x1474e3… |
| 06-10 07:54:51 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 8 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x3b5825… |
| 06-10 07:54:51 | Short-Term-Chopsticks 0x0749…6de9 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 33¢ | $3 | 0x3b5825… |
| 06-10 07:53:24 | Short-Term-Chopsticks 0x0749…6de9 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xbe01f0… |
| 06-10 07:53:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 33¢ | $3 | 0xbe01f0… |
| 06-10 07:53:12 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x0796ba… |
| 06-10 07:53:12 | Short-Term-Chopsticks 0x0749…6de9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x0796ba… |
| 06-10 07:52:54 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x1b7e2a… |
| 06-10 07:52:54 | Short-Term-Chopsticks 0x0749…6de9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0x1b7e2a… |
| 06-10 07:52:43 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0xb90215… |
| 06-10 07:52:43 | Short-Term-Chopsticks 0x0749…6de9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 33¢ | $2 | 0xb90215… |
| 06-10 06:51:00 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 32¢ | $3 | 0xd708d0… |
| 06-10 06:51:00 | Definitive-Quart 0x689a…92f1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 32¢ | $7 | 0xd708d0… |
| 06-10 06:51:00 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 32¢ | $3 | 0xd708d0… |
| 06-10 05:33:45 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 8 | 34¢ | $3 | 0x814fc7… |
| 06-10 05:33:45 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 8 | 66¢ | $5 | 0x814fc7… |
| 06-10 05:33:25 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 5 | 34¢ | $2 | 0x4a18df… |
| 06-10 05:33:25 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 12 | 66¢ | $8 | 0x4a18df… |
| 06-10 05:33:25 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 8 | 34¢ | $3 | 0x4a18df… |
| 06-09 09:30:30 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 32¢ | $3 | 0x8a929a… |
| 06-09 09:30:30 | Suburban-Ecliptic 0x476c…ce52 | No | BUY | 62 | 68¢ | $42 | 0x8a929a… |
| 06-09 09:30:30 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 15 | 32¢ | $5 | 0x8a929a… |
| 06-09 09:30:30 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 37 | 32¢ | $12 | 0x8a929a… |
| 06-09 05:12:03 | Intent-Beck 0x08c9…a2ef | No | BUY | 68 | 67¢ | $46 | 0x94880e… |
| 06-09 05:12:03 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 32¢ | $10 | 0x94880e… |
| 06-09 05:12:03 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 13 | 66¢ | $9 | 0x94880e… |
| 06-09 05:12:03 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | No | SELL | 18 | 68¢ | $12 | 0x94880e… |
| 06-09 05:12:03 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 7 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x94880e… |
| 06-08 01:53:52 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | BUY | 19 | 63¢ | $12 | 0x2b0553… |
| 06-08 01:53:52 | Worldly-Dump 0xc18b…3917 | Yes | SELL | 62 | 39¢ | $24 | 0x2b0553… |
| 06-08 01:53:52 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 100 | 62¢ | $62 | 0x2b0553… |
| 06-08 01:53:52 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 19 | 37¢ | $7 | 0x2b0553… |
| 06-08 01:48:12 | Smug-Effacement 0xaf13…72ca | Yes | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x303636… |
| 06-08 01:48:12 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 5 | 63¢ | $3 | 0x303636… |
| 06-07 13:51:39 | Determined-Gear 0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 39¢ | $10 | 0x41bd49… |
| 06-07 13:51:39 | Crazy-Cranberry 0xaa81…aaf7 | No | BUY | 18 | 61¢ | $11 | 0x41bd49… |
| 06-07 13:51:39 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 8 | 61¢ | $5 | 0x41bd49… |
| 06-07 13:03:21 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 19 | 33¢ | $6 | 0xfaf44b… |
| 06-07 13:03:21 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 19 | 67¢ | $13 | 0xfaf44b… |
| 06-07 13:03:07 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 19 | 33¢ | $6 | 0x0dc7b5… |
| 06-07 13:03:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 27 | 33¢ | $9 | 0x0dc7b5… |
| 06-07 13:03:07 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 75 | 33¢ | $25 | 0x0dc7b5… |
| 06-07 13:03:07 | Admirable-Samurai 0x1229…df38 | No | SELL | 123 | 67¢ | $82 | 0x0dc7b5… |
| 06-07 13:03:07 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 2 | 33¢ | $1 | 0x0dc7b5… |
| 06-07 09:41:34 | Short-Term-Chopsticks 0x0749…6de9 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 32¢ | $4 | 0xcf2b0b… |
| 06-07 09:41:34 | Suburban-Ecliptic 0x476c…ce52 | No | BUY | 11 | 68¢ | $7 | 0xcf2b0b… |
| 06-06 08:06:43 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 33¢ | $2 | 0xf323d7… |
| 06-06 08:06:43 | Ready-Configuration 0xe448…92d7 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 33¢ | $2 | 0xf323d7… |
| 06-06 06:18:22 | Puny-Cheesecake 0xaca4…b335 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x5e4a73… |
| 06-06 06:18:22 | Smug-Effacement 0xaf13…72ca | Yes | SELL | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x5e4a73… |
| 06-05 19:20:28 | Substantial-Loading 0x6f8b…56ed | No | SELL | 0 | 69¢ | $0 | 0xe63348… |
| 06-05 19:20:28 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 12 | 31¢ | $4 | 0xe63348… |
| 06-05 19:20:28 | Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 31¢ | $4 | 0xe63348… |
| 06-05 19:20:28 | Thick-Star 0x4508…8195 | Yes | SELL | 29 | 31¢ | $9 | 0xe63348… |
| 06-05 19:20:28 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 31¢ | $2 | 0xe63348… |
| 06-05 19:15:27 | Thick-Star 0x4508…8195 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 34¢ | $10 | 0xa16c76… |
| 06-05 19:15:27 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 17 | 34¢ | $6 | 0xa16c76… |
| 06-05 19:15:27 | Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | No | BUY | 12 | 66¢ | $8 | 0xa16c76… |
| 06-05 18:48:30 | Closed-Rating 0x505e…affc | Yes | BUY | 13 | 37¢ | $5 | 0xcbdc91… |