Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b276…f5da22
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← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$4
Unrealized P&L
+$134
Hit rate
63.2%
Resolved
61
Trades
18,931
lifetime
Volume
$56.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$1.03K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-01
last 07-21 00:08
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Other
63% 44% $-7
Politics
28% 69% +$5
Tech
5% 0% $-2
Pop-Culture
2% — —
Sports
2% 100% +$1
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 843 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +123 $46 82¢ $101 +$54 07-11 17:45
AI bubble burst in 2026? No +94 $69 84¢ $79 +$10 06-24 21:30
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No +80 $63 92¢ $73 +$10 06-20 02:53
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +72 $50 99¢ $71 +$21 07-13 14:43
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +91 $76 66¢ $60 $-16 07-11 04:43
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes +53 $42 84¢ $45 +$3 07-18 05:29
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No +55 $36 78¢ $43 +$7 07-20 14:53
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No +40 $27 84¢ $33 +$6 07-20 18:40
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +45 $32 70¢ $32 $-0 07-12 07:11
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes +31 $25 98¢ $31 +$6 07-09 05:40
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes +32 $27 92¢ $30 +$3 07-17 13:08
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No +38 $28 78¢ $29 +$1 07-11 11:15
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? No +59 $26 50¢ $29 +$3 06-23 20:15
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +43 $22 67¢ $29 +$7 06-28 07:13
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +40 $30 70¢ $28 $-2 07-20 08:35
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +81 $13 34¢ $27 +$14 07-10 06:40
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Yes +53 $27 50¢ $27 $-0 06-23 19:35
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No +30 $21 84¢ $25 +$4 06-28 19:30
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +36 $14 64¢ $23 +$9 07-12 15:30
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes +23 $17 96¢ $23 +$6 06-25 04:26
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +43 $24 52¢ $23 $-1 07-08 01:30
Kash Patel out by December 31? No +35 $16 62¢ $22 +$6 06-26 02:04
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +34 $15 62¢ $21 +$6 06-17 00:46
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +72 $19 30¢ $21 +$2 07-12 07:38
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +43 $17 48¢ $20 +$3 07-20 16:16
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No +24 $10 77¢ $18 +$8 06-12 17:37
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No +23 $15 80¢ $18 +$4 07-13 12:43
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes +99 $55 18¢ $18 $-38 07-12 02:00
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? No +34 $20 52¢ $18 $-2 07-14 00:10
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No +22 $14 79¢ $17 +$3 07-19 16:37