Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
open
Total volume
$9,951
Trades
134
Unique wallets
46
Liquidity
$3,090
Latest YES mid
17¢
Latest NO mid
83¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-30
last 06-14 23:54
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-15.5¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $1.3K
vs crowd: 15% YES on $6.8K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 11 | $51 | $3.7K | $3.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 12 | $321 | $1.9K | $1.6K |
| 🐟 Fish | 11 | $530 | $94 | +$435 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 12 | $144 | $21 | +$123 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | — | $1.3K | $1.3K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | — | $30 | $30 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $20 | $1.3K | $1.3K |
| Median | 3 | $4 | $10 | $6 |
| Below median | 9 | $67 | $43 | +$24 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 8 | $41 | $789 | $748 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | — | $2.1K | $2.1K |
| unranked | 11 | $912 | $95 | +$817 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | No | +2,500 | $2,060 | $2,060 | 4 | 06-08 06:10 |
| Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | +2,458 | $440 | $450 | 2 | 06-08 06:10 |
| Unique-Roundabout 0xa5fd…36d1 | Yes | +2,394 | $195 | $435 | 7 | 06-14 23:54 |
| Pristine-Business 0x014c…820c | No | +990 | $840 | $1,386 | 2 | 06-14 23:54 |
| Heavy-Gentleman 0x7e01…63be | No | +760 | $607 | $607 | 4 | 06-11 19:23 |
| Blind-Simplification 0x51b4…89b8 | Yes | +267 | $79 | $79 | 3 | 06-11 19:23 |
| Frequent-Protection 0x41e7…97a8 | Yes | +250 | $42 | $42 | 1 | 06-14 23:54 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +95 | $16 | $40 | 7 | 06-14 23:54 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +81 | $10 | $10 | 3 | 06-02 03:05 |
| Made-Up-Jaw 0xe5aa…87ac | Yes | +56 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-30 01:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x5f16…131a | Yes | +40 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-12 09:37 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +40 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 06-12 09:37 |
| Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | +40 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 06-08 06:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | +29 | $36 | $533 | 10 | 06-14 04:25 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | +21 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-06 23:23 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +15 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 06-01 23:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | No | +14 | $11 | $31 | 3 | 06-11 20:00 |
| Blank-Childhood 0xc98b…73e8 | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 06-11 19:15 |
| Super-Wedding 0x2a61…4020 | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-11 20:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x48e7…4641 | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-04 08:22 |
| Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | +5 | $4 | $12 | 2 | 06-14 23:54 |
| Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | +4 | $0 | $3 | 2 | 05-31 23:08 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-14 23:54:12 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 51 | 83¢ | $42 | 0x817664… |
| 06-14 23:54:12 | Unique-Roundabout 0xa5fd…36d1 | Yes | SELL | 715 | 17¢ | $120 | 0x817664… |
| 06-14 23:54:12 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0x817664… |
| 06-14 23:54:12 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 71 | 17¢ | $12 | 0x817664… |
| 06-14 23:54:12 | Frequent-Protection 0x41e7…97a8 | Yes | BUY | 250 | 17¢ | $42 | 0x817664… |
| 06-14 23:54:12 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0x817664… |
| 06-14 23:54:12 | Pristine-Business 0x014c…820c | No | SELL | 328 | 83¢ | $273 | 0x817664… |
| 06-14 04:25:25 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 19 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x85e94a… |
| 06-14 04:25:25 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | SELL | 24 | 81¢ | $19 | 0x85e94a… |
| 06-14 04:25:25 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x85e94a… |
| 06-14 04:14:52 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 17¢ | $4 | 0x8b9728… |
| 06-14 04:14:52 | Fixed-Allowance 0x0504…3799 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 17¢ | $4 | 0x8b9728… |
| 06-14 03:59:39 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 2 | 19¢ | $0 | 0x73e32e… |
| 06-14 03:59:39 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | SELL | 15 | 81¢ | $12 | 0x73e32e… |
| 06-14 03:59:39 | (anonymous) 0x7b2c…c9a8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x73e32e… |
| 06-13 09:23:18 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xd4cad6… |
| 06-13 09:23:18 | (anonymous) 0xf8f2…96cf | Yes | SELL | 53 | 17¢ | $9 | 0xd4cad6… |
| 06-13 09:23:18 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | BUY | 15 | 17¢ | $3 | 0xd4cad6… |
| 06-13 09:23:18 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 17¢ | $0 | 0xd4cad6… |
| 06-13 09:23:18 | (anonymous) 0x7b2c…c9a8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 17¢ | $1 | 0xd4cad6… |
| 06-12 09:37:12 | (anonymous) 0x5f16…131a | Yes | BUY | 40 | 25¢ | $10 | 0x992eb9… |
| 06-12 09:37:12 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 40 | 75¢ | $30 | 0x992eb9… |
| 06-11 20:00:30 | Super-Wedding 0x2a61…4020 | No | BUY | 12 | 83¢ | $10 | 0x367b86… |
| 06-11 20:00:30 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | No | SELL | 12 | 83¢ | $10 | 0x367b86… |
| 06-11 19:23:34 | Heavy-Gentleman 0x7e01…63be | No | BUY | 167 | 70¢ | $117 | 0xeaf2eb… |
| 06-11 19:23:34 | Blind-Simplification 0x51b4…89b8 | Yes | BUY | 167 | 30¢ | $50 | 0xeaf2eb… |
| 06-11 19:18:42 | Blind-Simplification 0x51b4…89b8 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 30¢ | $8 | 0xf90e57… |
| 06-11 19:18:42 | Heavy-Gentleman 0x7e01…63be | No | BUY | 27 | 70¢ | $19 | 0xf90e57… |
| 06-11 19:15:04 | Heavy-Gentleman 0x7e01…63be | No | BUY | 66 | 70¢ | $47 | 0x7944af… |
| 06-11 19:15:04 | Blank-Childhood 0xc98b…73e8 | No | BUY | 6 | 79¢ | $5 | 0x7944af… |
| 06-11 19:15:04 | Blind-Simplification 0x51b4…89b8 | Yes | BUY | 73 | 29¢ | $21 | 0x7944af… |
| 06-10 03:39:48 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | No | BUY | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x9fc364… |
| 06-10 03:39:48 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 20 | 81¢ | $16 | 0x9fc364… |
| 06-10 03:35:25 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | SELL | 94 | 82¢ | $77 | 0xbf0737… |
| 06-10 03:35:25 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0xbf0737… |
| 06-10 03:35:25 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 28 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xbf0737… |
| 06-10 03:35:25 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | No | BUY | 6 | 81¢ | $5 | 0xbf0737… |
| 06-10 03:35:25 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0xbf0737… |
| 06-10 03:35:25 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 30 | 19¢ | $6 | 0xbf0737… |
| 06-10 00:21:18 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 28¢ | $0 | 0x9bce72… |
| 06-10 00:21:18 | (anonymous) 0x5886…dbe4 | No | SELL | 1 | 72¢ | $1 | 0x9bce72… |
| 06-09 01:02:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 46 | 17¢ | $8 | 0x1b29e5… |
| 06-09 01:02:24 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | SELL | 85 | 83¢ | $71 | 0x1b29e5… |
| 06-09 01:02:24 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 17¢ | $7 | 0x1b29e5… |
| 06-09 00:08:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 45 | 17¢ | $8 | 0xd5a328… |
| 06-09 00:08:24 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 69 | 17¢ | $12 | 0xd5a328… |
| 06-09 00:08:24 | Immediate-Ring 0xdae3…cf78 | Yes | SELL | 136 | 17¢ | $23 | 0xd5a328… |
| 06-09 00:08:24 | Fixed-Allowance 0x0504…3799 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 17¢ | $4 | 0xd5a328… |
| 06-08 12:47:57 | (anonymous) 0x6c18…926a | Yes | SELL | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x2575d6… |
| 06-08 12:47:57 | Energetic-Gasp 0xcceb…f030 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x2575d6… |
| 06-08 09:57:00 | (anonymous) 0x5886…dbe4 | No | BUY | 1 | 83¢ | $1 | 0x09f8fc… |
| 06-08 09:57:00 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 1 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x09f8fc… |
| 06-08 06:33:12 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 10 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x838eee… |
| 06-08 06:33:12 | (anonymous) 0x6c18…926a | Yes | BUY | 10 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x838eee… |
| 06-08 06:10:48 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 10 | 82¢ | $8 | 0x0e7219… |
| 06-08 06:10:48 | Blank-Childhood 0xc98b…73e8 | No | BUY | 6 | 83¢ | $5 | 0x0e7219… |
| 06-08 06:10:48 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 432 | 18¢ | $76 | 0x0e7219… |
| 06-08 06:10:48 | Sparse-Traffic 0x54e1…9d5a | Yes | BUY | 2,514 | 18¢ | $445 | 0x0e7219… |
| 06-08 06:10:48 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | No | BUY | 2,000 | 82¢ | $1,646 | 0x0e7219… |
| 06-08 06:10:48 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | BUY | 40 | 82¢ | $33 | 0x0e7219… |
| 06-08 06:10:48 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | BUY | 10 | 82¢ | $8 | 0x0e7219… |
| 06-08 06:10:48 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 16 | 83¢ | $13 | 0x0e7219… |
| 06-07 16:44:07 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | SELL | 45 | 83¢ | $38 | 0x4bf566… |
| 06-07 16:44:07 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | No | BUY | 39 | 83¢ | $32 | 0x4bf566… |
| 06-07 16:44:07 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 6 | 83¢ | $5 | 0x4bf566… |
| 06-07 16:32:00 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 10 | 84¢ | $8 | 0x9e1bb6… |
| 06-07 16:32:00 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 432 | 16¢ | $67 | 0x9e1bb6… |
| 06-07 16:32:00 | Pristine-Business 0x014c…820c | No | BUY | 1,318 | 84¢ | $1,113 | 0x9e1bb6… |
| 06-07 16:32:00 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | SELL | 876 | 85¢ | $740 | 0x9e1bb6… |
| 06-07 16:26:15 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0x5196d9… |
| 06-07 16:26:15 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 320 | 83¢ | $265 | 0x5196d9… |
| 06-07 16:26:15 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | No | BUY | 315 | 83¢ | $261 | 0x5196d9… |
| 06-07 12:57:40 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | No | BUY | 146 | 83¢ | $121 | 0xf0784a… |
| 06-07 12:57:40 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 146 | 83¢ | $121 | 0xf0784a… |
| 06-07 12:57:07 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 100 | 83¢ | $83 | 0x26a037… |
| 06-07 12:57:07 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | BUY | 100 | 83¢ | $83 | 0x26a037… |
| 06-07 12:57:06 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xaddfc8… |
| 06-07 12:57:06 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xaddfc8… |
| 06-06 23:26:10 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | BUY | 237 | 82¢ | $194 | 0x0554de… |
| 06-06 23:26:10 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 474 | 82¢ | $389 | 0x0554de… |
| 06-06 23:23:18 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | No | BUY | 21 | 85¢ | $18 | 0x19b26d… |
| 06-06 23:23:18 | Considerate-Commandment 0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | SELL | 21 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x19b26d… |
| 06-06 23:23:18 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | SELL | 35 | 15¢ | $5 | 0x19b26d… |
| 06-06 23:23:18 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 809 | 85¢ | $687 | 0x19b26d… |
| 06-06 23:23:18 | Heavy-Gentleman 0x7e01…63be | No | BUY | 500 | 85¢ | $425 | 0x19b26d… |
| 06-06 23:23:18 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | BUY | 232 | 85¢ | $197 | 0x19b26d… |
| 06-06 01:10:57 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | SELL | 36 | 87¢ | $32 | 0x7fbdd6… |
| 06-06 01:10:57 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 34 | 13¢ | $4 | 0x7fbdd6… |
| 06-06 01:10:57 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 13¢ | $0 | 0x7fbdd6… |
| 06-04 08:22:51 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x3a0af7… |
| 06-04 08:22:51 | (anonymous) 0x48e7…4641 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x3a0af7… |
| 06-02 21:56:10 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 12¢ | $6 | 0xf0608b… |
| 06-02 21:56:10 | (anonymous) 0x5287…3a16 | No | BUY | 30 | 88¢ | $26 | 0xf0608b… |
| 06-02 21:56:10 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 80 | 88¢ | $71 | 0xf0608b… |
| 06-02 03:05:44 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 12¢ | $6 | 0x541f99… |
| 06-02 03:05:44 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x541f99… |
| 06-02 03:05:44 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 24 | 12¢ | $3 | 0x541f99… |
| 06-02 03:05:44 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | No | BUY | 79 | 88¢ | $69 | 0x541f99… |
| 06-02 03:05:00 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x79eb93… |
| 06-02 03:05:00 | (anonymous) 0x7438…b741 | Yes | BUY | 32 | 12¢ | $4 | 0x79eb93… |