Past-Disguise — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$100.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.25K

Hit rate

53.9%

Resolved

23,028

Trades

108,363

lifetime

Volume

$2.60M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$14.6K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 01:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 204 days

Categories

Other

82% 48% -$92,437

Politics

12% 33% -$4,923

Sports

4% 40% -$2,711

Tech

2% 37% +$920

Crypto

0% 50% -$1,657

Pop-Culture

0% 33% +$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 2167 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in October?	No	+1,452	$907	100¢	$1.4K	+$542	10-13 01:02
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+15,359	$1,255	6¢	$845	-$410	10-15 14:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	No	+838	$417	99¢	$834	+$417	10-11 14:20
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	No	+804	$270	98¢	$790	+$520	08-31 02:36
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	+746	$567	95¢	$708	+$141	08-02 18:38
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+603	$590	98¢	$591	+$1	10-28 21:28
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	+804	$601	68¢	$543	-$58	10-29 21:35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+1,005	$535	52¢	$528	-$8	10-30 00:32
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	+603	$537	86¢	$522	-$15	10-28 20:05
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	-1,560	-$139	33¢	$-518	-$379	05-01 23:25
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+525	$352	97¢	$508	+$156	09-14 08:00
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+700	$474	72¢	$500	+$26	10-29 22:57
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+1,005	$493	48¢	$477	-$16	10-30 00:12
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+603	$446	76¢	$461	+$15	10-29 22:43
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	+595	$434	70¢	$419	-$15	10-29 22:44
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+634	$423	64¢	$409	-$14	10-29 23:18
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	+658	$403	60¢	$395	-$8	10-29 03:37
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	+408	$376	96¢	$390	+$14	10-29 16:02
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+603	$380	64¢	$389	+$9	10-29 21:06
Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	+402	$368	90¢	$364	-$4	10-29 22:09
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+402	$340	86¢	$348	+$8	10-29 17:44
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	+503	$320	64¢	$320	$0	10-29 22:43
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	No	+401	$299	80¢	$319	+$20	10-30 01:55
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	+322	$205	96¢	$310	+$105	08-16 20:00
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	No	+405	$295	72¢	$290	-$6	10-29 17:49
Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	+340	$267	84¢	$284	+$17	10-29 20:18
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	+303	$281	94¢	$284	+$3	10-29 00:33
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	+303	$80	90¢	$273	+$193	08-29 23:53
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+658	$260	40¢	$263	+$3	10-29 03:36
will the highest score achieved by an anthropic claude model on humanitys last exam in 2026 be 60 or higher 20260723190836287	No	+351	$273	74¢	$262	-$11	08-18 17:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	4	$7.3K	3,640	3,640	+0	Yes	+$8	05-09 18:26
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	248	$6.9K	24,516	24,266	+250	open	—	10-27 17:14
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	480	$6.8K	24,152	24,180	-28	open	—	10-27 10:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	75	$6.7K	8,864	9,583	-719	Yes	+$3,863	05-09 05:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	78	$5.6K	7,092	4,642	+2,450	Yes	-$207	10-20 05:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	44	$4.6K	4,851	3,051	+1,799	No	+$155	09-24 01:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	45	$4.1K	6,055	2,826	+3,230	Yes	-$123	10-13 16:03
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	158	$4.1K	3,601	3,473	+128	Yes	-$1	06-08 14:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	54	$3.9K	4,039	3,730	+309	open	—	10-20 19:58
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	48	$3.8K	3,080	2,382	+698	No	-$57	08-30 10:49
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	56	$3.5K	4,470	4,470	+0	No	+$179	10-05 08:33
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	204	$3.1K	13,362	8,864	+4,498	Yes	-$343	09-12 23:49
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	369	$3.0K	32,149	31,799	+350	No	+$588	07-27 23:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	27	$2.9K	5,890	7,000	-1,110	No	-$101	05-28 04:12
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	318	$2.9K	18,290	16,695	+1,596	No	+$48	03-19 07:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	51	$2.8K	4,829	1,807	+3,022	No	-$29	09-19 23:01
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	53	$2.8K	3,348	1,826	+1,522	Yes	-$17	08-20 23:55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	35	$2.8K	4,100	2,423	+1,677	open	—	10-16 14:52
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week?	157	$2.7K	3,743	2,937	+806	Yes	-$469	06-01 12:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	49	$2.6K	4,018	2,340	+1,678	Yes	+$45	09-21 17:34
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	97	$2.5K	6,011	6,011	+0	No	+$140	05-20 03:02
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	33	$2.5K	2,200	2,533	-333	No	+$1,458	05-15 07:43
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	15	$2.4K	3,748	2,701	+1,047	No	-$760	10-28 17:21
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	406	$2.3K	34,524	31,297	+3,227	No	+$125	09-26 12:13
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	360	$2.3K	37,953	35,195	+2,758	No	+$376	07-21 18:03
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	24	$2.2K	2,851	1,415	+1,436	No	+$115	08-25 02:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	20	$2.2K	4,762	711	+4,051	Yes	+$38	09-10 11:59
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	79	$2.2K	2,000	2,080	-80	Yes	+$38	05-24 20:44
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	32	$2.2K	1,972	1,872	+100	No	+$28	06-02 14:51
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	215	$2.1K	6,671	6,522	+149	Yes	+$1,386	03-25 08:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 02:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0xdb8924…
10-30 02:41:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	16	22¢	$3	0x26d812…
10-30 02:40:49	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 40%-45%?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xbde73e…
10-30 02:40:49	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 40%-45%?	No	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x9aed33…
10-30 02:40:09	Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	21¢	$4	0xdfc818…
10-30 02:40:09	Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	No	BUY	21	81¢	$17	0x469883…
10-30 02:38:00	Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?	No	BUY	51	89¢	$45	0x204849…
10-30 02:37:33	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x38af36…
10-30 02:37:25	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-13 House election by 65%-70%?	No	BUY	21	78¢	$16	0x6abd16…
10-30 02:37:12	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xd9d630…
10-30 02:37:12	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 31?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x18f9dc…
10-30 02:36:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	19	7¢	$1	0xb52e0f…
10-30 02:35:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-02 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	19	19¢	$4	0x93c82f…
10-30 02:35:19	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x244615…
10-30 02:34:16	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0x44faf1…
10-30 02:32:52	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	21	68¢	$14	0x5976bc…
10-30 02:32:49	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	61	86¢	$52	0x101bed…
10-30 02:32:07	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-02 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	14	33¢	$4	0xf1071c…
10-30 02:31:58	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-02 House election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	21	69¢	$14	0xf1add6…
10-30 02:30:03	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	18	60¢	$10	0x7bf24c…
10-30 02:29:07	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	51	80¢	$41	0x6f7e9b…
10-30 02:27:25	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 31?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xbf94df…
10-30 02:26:27	Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0xfd51d3…
10-30 02:25:55	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x1dfd76…
10-30 02:24:57	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 31?	No	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0xd9de05…
10-30 02:24:55	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x987049…
10-30 02:24:55	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0x761182…
10-30 02:21:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-06 House election by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	21	73¢	$15	0x9f6a6d…
10-30 02:19:37	Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	16	57¢	$9	0x721ee2…
10-30 02:19:33	Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xacc20c…
10-30 02:14:40	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on October 31?	No	BUY	21	73¢	$15	0xece346…
10-30 02:14:15	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0xa79f05…
10-30 02:13:42	Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?	Minnesota	SELL	21	47¢	$10	0x3230f0…
10-30 02:13:31	Will Republicans win the Ohio and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xe57dcf…
10-30 02:13:30	Will Democrats win the Ohio and Texas Senate seats?	No	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0xbcc4c3…
10-30 02:13:30	Will Republicans win the Ohio Senate seat, and Democrats win Texas?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2cbf53…
10-30 02:13:28	Will Republicans win the Ohio Senate seat, and Democrats win Texas?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xcb8f8d…
10-30 02:13:28	Will Republicans win the Ohio Senate seat, and Democrats win Texas?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0x7a6eb9…
10-30 02:12:18	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on October 31?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xb07e97…
10-30 02:11:55	Will Ethena reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	21	95¢	$20	0x41320d…
10-30 02:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on October 30?	No	BUY	21	73¢	$15	0xf0b6b6…
10-30 02:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on October 30?	No	BUY	21	83¢	$17	0xac2b32…
10-30 02:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 17°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x92a6e5…
10-30 02:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x7080e2…
10-30 02:10:39	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on October 31?	No	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x204d64…
10-30 02:10:37	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xd4edff…
10-30 02:10:36	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 31?	No	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0x593b44…
10-30 02:10:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	46	81¢	$37	0xa569f4…
10-30 02:10:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	46	19¢	$9	0x973722…
10-30 02:09:57	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	13¢	$0	0x916b19…
10-30 02:09:42	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0x518347…
10-30 02:09:34	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	25	17¢	$4	0xce5342…
10-30 02:09:34	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0xc20bc7…
10-30 02:09:24	Will Anthropic raise between $95B and $105B in its IPO?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0xf8f8ae…
10-30 02:09:22	Will Anthropic raise between $95B and $105B in its IPO?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x52d468…
10-30 02:08:43	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-15 House election by 3%-6%?	No	BUY	21	78¢	$16	0xa0b3d8…
10-30 02:08:06	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	17	78¢	$13	0xe1d37a…
10-30 02:07:49	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on October 31?	No	BUY	21	73¢	$15	0x2ac54c…
10-30 02:05:40	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-04 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	21	20¢	$4	0xdeac7d…
10-30 02:05:40	Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0x131d85…
10-30 02:05:39	Will Steve Hilton win Fresno County in the California governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0x615ce3…
10-30 02:05:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	51	40¢	$20	0x4c6c89…
10-30 02:05:06	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	No	BUY	51	56¢	$29	0xbe600e…
10-30 02:05:06	Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	51	44¢	$22	0x758ccd…
10-30 02:04:40	Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?	Yes	BUY	21	41¢	$9	0xa4eff9…
10-30 02:04:40	Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?	No	BUY	21	59¢	$12	0x91290e…
10-30 02:04:19	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xd22a9b…
10-30 02:02:57	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0x447167…
10-30 02:01:55	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	8	44¢	$3	0xe38d3c…
10-30 02:01:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 30?	No	BUY	21	37¢	$8	0x1a20e1…
10-30 02:01:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x09ff2c…
10-30 02:01:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-08 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	21	78¢	$16	0xd07b6a…
10-30 02:00:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x37ab29…
10-30 02:00:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	29¢	$4	0xd7d666…
10-30 02:00:19	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0xce5a80…
10-30 02:00:19	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	21	39¢	$8	0x867fee…
10-30 02:00:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0x17ecb0…
10-30 02:00:19	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 31?	No	BUY	21	69¢	$14	0x007697…
10-30 01:59:19	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-06 House election by 12%-15%?	No	SELL	21	78¢	$16	0x1325e0…
10-30 01:58:51	Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0xc33503…
10-30 01:57:31	Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x536fc0…
10-30 01:57:18	Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xe08287…
10-30 01:56:16	Will Trump say "Communist" or "Socialist" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	No	BUY	95	67¢	$64	0x9f7fcf…
10-30 01:56:16	Will Trump say "Communist" or "Socialist" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x1e2f67…
10-30 01:55:46	Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	No	BUY	200	77¢	$154	0xc5b276…
10-30 01:55:42	Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	Yes	BUY	201	25¢	$50	0xa0d471…
10-30 01:51:06	Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	SELL	42	10¢	$4	0x91b7ba…
10-30 01:50:39	Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xc588d1…
10-30 01:50:16	Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$17	0x0e8c8e…
10-30 01:50:15	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-16 House election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0x1a1471…
10-30 01:50:09	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-16 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	21	22¢	$5	0x06ebe0…
10-30 01:49:22	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x7d6be0…
10-30 01:48:40	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x45c66b…
10-30 01:46:31	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0xeab28a…
10-30 01:46:31	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 30?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xdb5df4…
10-30 01:46:31	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x4bad5f…
10-30 01:45:06	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 31?	No	BUY	21	75¢	$16	0x0ff65b…
10-30 01:44:52	Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0x0f46b2…
10-30 01:44:51	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xab739e…
10-30 01:44:51	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 30?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x960177…