Realized P&L
-$36.0K
Unrealized P&L
-$105.2K
Hit rate
73.7%
Resolved
650
Trades
503,970
lifetime
Volume
$206.3M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$409
Open exposure
$313.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-05 06:48
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 27 days
Categories
Politics
47%
61%
+$12,636
Other
46%
46%
$-49,073
Crypto
4%
50%
$-50
Sports
1%
80%
+$887
Tech
1%
67%
$-237
Pop-Culture
0%
50%
$-156
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 5722 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | -75,638 | $-15,683 | 100¢ | $-75525 | $-59,842 | 07-02 01:39 | |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? | Yes | -40,343 | $-31,526 | 97¢ | $-38972 | $-7,446 | 07-04 21:01 | |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | No | +33,637 | $32,331 | 100¢ | $33.6K | +$1,272 | 07-03 16:15 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | -33,319 | $-6,633 | 84¢ | $-28154 | $-21,522 | 07-05 09:49 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | -35,132 | $-2,635 | 52¢ | $-18444 | $-15,809 | 07-04 11:14 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | -17,679 | $-16,442 | 96¢ | $-16963 | $-522 | 06-05 06:17 | |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | No | -16,340 | $-12,288 | 88¢ | $-14297 | $-2,009 | 06-24 04:04 | |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | No | +12,157 | $7,787 | 80¢ | $9.8K | +$1,999 | 07-04 18:02 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | No | +10,000 | $9,060 | 90¢ | $9.0K | $-40 | 07-04 14:07 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | -10,000 | $-9,705 | 90¢ | $-8950 | +$755 | 07-05 00:40 | |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 | No | -10,219 | $-6,030 | 86¢ | $-8839 | $-2,809 | 06-05 17:53 | |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | No | -6,223 | $-4,236 | 78¢ | $-4885 | $-649 | 06-27 09:00 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | No | -4,910 | $-4,299 | 98¢ | $-4789 | $-490 | 06-13 11:25 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | -5,000 | $-4,350 | 94¢ | $-4675 | $-325 | 06-11 00:33 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | +30,807 | $552 | 12¢ | $3.9K | +$3,299 | 07-05 04:10 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | -4,155 | $-3,441 | 88¢ | $-3636 | $-195 | 06-14 22:26 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | -5,007 | $-2,819 | 68¢ | $-3380 | $-560 | 06-23 03:14 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | No | +5,464 | $3,103 | 58¢ | $3.2K | +$67 | 07-05 07:03 | |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | No | -3,592 | $-2,054 | 87¢ | $-3136 | $-1,082 | 07-05 01:30 | |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | No | +3,413 | $2,472 | 81¢ | $2.8K | +$292 | 07-04 23:16 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | -4,176 | $-2,808 | 62¢ | $-2568 | +$240 | 07-05 07:20 | |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | -2,270 | $-1,841 | 88¢ | $-2009 | $-167 | 06-24 01:59 | |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Yes | -10,149 | $-1,829 | 20¢ | $-1979 | $-150 | 06-23 11:53 | |
| Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | No | +2,000 | $1,880 | 90¢ | $1.8K | $-74 | 06-30 03:58 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +2,043 | $1,532 | 88¢ | $1.8K | +$255 | 06-11 17:30 | |
| Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | No | +2,489 | $1,503 | 62¢ | $1.6K | +$53 | 07-05 00:42 | |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | No | -1,950 | $-1,048 | 70¢ | $-1375 | $-327 | 07-04 16:22 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | +36,761 | $1,639 | 4¢ | $1.3K | $-298 | 07-03 06:41 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | +5,000 | $439 | 26¢ | $1.3K | +$886 | 07-04 03:34 | |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in May? | No | +1,252 | $1,251 | 100¢ | $1.3K | +$0 | 05-29 19:59 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 4,020 | $3.96M | 2,109,802 | 2,374,326 | -264,524 | open | — | 05-31 21:55 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 6,492 | $3.70M | 2,471,765 | 2,246,635 | +225,130 | open | — | 06-01 03:20 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 1,059 | $3.33M | 1,982,527 | 1,557,104 | +425,424 | open | — | 06-17 21:16 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 2,828 | $3.21M | 1,832,261 | 1,902,132 | -69,871 | open | — | 07-02 01:39 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 825 | $2.60M | 1,299,896 | 1,407,994 | -108,098 | open | — | 04-08 23:29 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 2,145 | $2.44M | 1,319,122 | 1,342,244 | -23,122 | open | — | 05-26 00:02 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 1,606 | $1.99M | 1,113,282 | 1,023,835 | +89,447 | open | — | 03-17 12:39 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 1,499 | $1.89M | 1,014,493 | 1,008,432 | +6,061 | open | — | 05-12 02:22 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 1,251 | $1.66M | 779,118 | 922,566 | -143,448 | open | — | 01-28 20:14 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15 | 468 | $1.57M | 779,546 | 848,228 | -68,682 | open | — | 06-11 20:07 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 1,523 | $1.50M | 957,975 | 822,613 | +135,363 | open | — | 05-15 15:27 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 2,986 | $1.45M | 826,923 | 882,219 | -55,295 | open | — | 04-26 16:32 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 1,926 | $1.45M | 767,027 | 783,927 | -16,899 | open | — | 04-25 22:21 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 1,494 | $1.38M | 874,962 | 667,813 | +207,149 | open | — | 04-05 03:51 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | 1,936 | $1.37M | 827,159 | 758,292 | +68,867 | open | — | 04-30 23:37 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 3,496 | $1.33M | 2,570,710 | 2,426,094 | +144,615 | open | — | 02-28 08:40 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 612 | $1.33M | 797,193 | 554,309 | +242,885 | open | — | 02-04 00:15 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 666 | $1.29M | 855,953 | 489,755 | +366,198 | open | — | 04-09 18:47 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 2,038 | $1.28M | 1,019,348 | 1,015,627 | +3,721 | open | — | 02-28 08:46 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 967 | $1.24M | 683,477 | 714,032 | -30,555 | open | — | 03-24 23:19 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 810 | $1.21M | 614,630 | 641,882 | -27,252 | open | — | 05-12 14:04 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 870 | $1.12M | 578,021 | 585,949 | -7,928 | open | — | 03-02 16:56 |
| megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733 | 1,307 | $1.02M | 872,041 | 288,787 | +583,254 | open | — | 05-01 10:01 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 481 | $1.01M | 606,252 | 558,149 | +48,102 | open | — | 03-12 19:20 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | 705 | $983.3K | 1,876,788 | 1,882,996 | -6,207 | open | — | 05-31 21:32 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 609 | $959.3K | 444,899 | 532,196 | -87,297 | open | — | 02-03 02:03 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 272 | $927.9K | 754,797 | 176,989 | +577,807 | open | — | 01-04 15:05 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026 | 1,321 | $915.3K | 547,225 | 544,050 | +3,175 | open | — | 04-22 20:14 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 810 | $909.1K | 542,398 | 526,126 | +16,272 | open | — | 05-23 04:20 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 465 | $878.0K | 461,885 | 479,545 | -17,660 | open | — | 03-04 19:10 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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