Realized P&L
-$36.0K
Unrealized P&L
-$30.0K
Hit rate
73.7%
Resolved
650
Trades
464,560
lifetime
Volume
$192.5M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$414
Open exposure
$430.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-13 12:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 27 days
Categories
Other
47%
46%
$-49,073
Politics
46%
61%
+$12,636
Crypto
4%
50%
$-50
Tech
1%
67%
$-237
Sports
1%
80%
+$887
Pop-Culture
0%
50%
$-156
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 5722 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | +166,659 | $159,819 | 78¢ | $129.2K | $-30,659 | 06-13 11:28 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | +65,676 | $61,372 | 98¢ | $64.2K | +$2,827 | 06-13 12:30 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | No | -30,096 | $-28,570 | 98¢ | $-29630 | $-1,059 | 06-10 00:23 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | -50,509 | $-28,899 | 48¢ | $-23992 | +$4,907 | 06-13 12:16 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | -17,679 | $-16,442 | 94¢ | $-16707 | $-265 | 06-05 06:17 | |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | +18,688 | $16,543 | 89¢ | $16.6K | +$43 | 06-13 06:13 | |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | +29,879 | $14,951 | 55¢ | $16.3K | +$1,333 | 06-13 09:33 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | +30,230 | $15,486 | 52¢ | $15.9K | +$385 | 06-13 09:17 | |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +16,568 | $11,233 | 82¢ | $13.7K | +$2,436 | 06-13 11:20 | |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | No | -16,405 | $-12,360 | 82¢ | $-13534 | $-1,174 | 06-10 14:51 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | +11,235 | $11,113 | 98¢ | $11.0K | $-131 | 06-13 08:19 | |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | -11,587 | $-8,610 | 80¢ | $-9327 | $-717 | 06-08 23:09 | |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 | No | -10,219 | $-6,030 | 74¢ | $-7613 | $-1,583 | 06-05 17:53 | |
| 2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? | Yes | -8,267 | $-6,201 | 74¢ | $-6159 | +$41 | 06-13 09:21 | |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | -11,520 | $-2,601 | 48¢ | $-5472 | $-2,871 | 06-11 23:41 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | -6,687 | $-4,396 | 78¢ | $-5216 | $-819 | 06-13 08:18 | |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | Yes | -6,817 | $-2,173 | 72¢ | $-4874 | $-2,701 | 06-05 23:45 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | -5,000 | $-4,350 | 88¢ | $-4425 | $-75 | 06-11 00:33 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | No | -4,910 | $-4,299 | 90¢ | $-4394 | $-95 | 06-13 11:25 | |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | -6,007 | $-3,784 | 65¢ | $-3905 | $-120 | 06-11 20:44 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | +7,000 | $3,053 | 52¢ | $3.7K | +$622 | 06-13 00:10 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | No | +3,755 | $3,551 | 90¢ | $3.4K | $-159 | 06-13 12:01 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | +3,255 | $2,393 | 94¢ | $3.0K | +$650 | 06-13 12:23 | |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | No | +4,416 | $1,768 | 64¢ | $2.8K | +$1,058 | 06-13 02:38 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | -3,069 | $-2,506 | 86¢ | $-2624 | $-118 | 06-13 12:09 | |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? | No | -3,753 | $-786 | 70¢ | $-2623 | $-1,837 | 06-01 12:05 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | -3,105 | $-2,550 | 84¢ | $-2608 | $-58 | 06-12 12:12 | |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | +2,630 | $2,447 | 95¢ | $2.5K | +$62 | 06-12 02:36 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | +2,585 | $2,161 | 97¢ | $2.5K | +$343 | 06-09 06:29 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | -4,173 | $-2,149 | 57¢ | $-2400 | $-251 | 06-12 14:29 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 4,020 | $3.96M | 2,109,802 | 2,374,326 | -264,524 | open | — | 05-31 21:55 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 6,492 | $3.70M | 2,471,765 | 2,246,635 | +225,130 | open | — | 06-01 03:20 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 825 | $2.60M | 1,299,896 | 1,407,994 | -108,098 | open | — | 04-08 23:29 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 2,145 | $2.44M | 1,319,122 | 1,342,244 | -23,122 | open | — | 05-26 00:02 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 1,606 | $1.99M | 1,113,282 | 1,023,835 | +89,447 | open | — | 03-17 12:39 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 1,499 | $1.89M | 1,014,493 | 1,008,432 | +6,061 | open | — | 05-12 02:22 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 2,033 | $1.75M | 1,127,662 | 957,814 | +169,848 | open | — | 06-13 11:28 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 1,251 | $1.66M | 779,118 | 922,566 | -143,448 | open | — | 01-28 20:14 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15 | 468 | $1.57M | 779,546 | 848,228 | -68,682 | open | — | 06-11 20:07 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | 1,523 | $1.50M | 957,975 | 822,613 | +135,363 | open | — | 05-15 15:27 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 2,986 | $1.45M | 826,923 | 882,219 | -55,295 | open | — | 04-26 16:32 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 1,926 | $1.45M | 767,027 | 783,927 | -16,899 | open | — | 04-25 22:21 |
| us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519 | 1,494 | $1.38M | 874,962 | 667,813 | +207,149 | open | — | 04-05 03:51 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 826 | $1.38M | 774,967 | 756,674 | +18,293 | open | — | 06-13 13:00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | 1,936 | $1.37M | 827,159 | 758,292 | +68,867 | open | — | 04-30 23:37 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 3,496 | $1.33M | 2,570,710 | 2,426,094 | +144,615 | open | — | 02-28 08:40 |
| us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31 | 612 | $1.33M | 797,193 | 554,309 | +242,885 | open | — | 02-04 00:15 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 666 | $1.29M | 855,953 | 489,755 | +366,198 | open | — | 04-09 18:47 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 2,038 | $1.28M | 1,019,348 | 1,015,627 | +3,721 | open | — | 02-28 08:46 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 967 | $1.24M | 683,477 | 714,032 | -30,555 | open | — | 03-24 23:19 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 810 | $1.21M | 614,630 | 641,882 | -27,252 | open | — | 05-12 14:04 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 870 | $1.12M | 578,021 | 585,949 | -7,928 | open | — | 03-02 16:56 |
| megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733 | 1,307 | $1.02M | 872,041 | 288,787 | +583,254 | open | — | 05-01 10:01 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 481 | $1.01M | 606,252 | 558,149 | +48,102 | open | — | 03-12 19:20 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | 705 | $983.3K | 1,876,788 | 1,882,996 | -6,207 | open | — | 05-31 21:32 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 609 | $959.3K | 444,899 | 532,196 | -87,297 | open | — | 02-03 02:03 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 272 | $927.9K | 754,797 | 176,989 | +577,807 | open | — | 01-04 15:05 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026 | 1,321 | $915.3K | 547,225 | 544,050 | +3,175 | open | — | 04-22 20:14 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | 810 | $909.1K | 542,398 | 526,126 | +16,272 | open | — | 05-23 04:20 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 465 | $878.0K | 461,885 | 479,545 | -17,660 | open | — | 03-04 19:10 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||