Hideous-Racer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$145.7K

Unrealized P&L

-$18.3K

Hit rate

69.1%

Resolved

28,940

Trades

769,516

lifetime

Volume

$262.6M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$341

Open exposure

$445.9K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-08 00:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 311 days

Categories

Other

47% 54% +$310,976

Politics

46% 58% -$196,888

Crypto

4% 64% +$113,796

Sports

2% 54% -$60,164

Tech

2% 53% -$18,424

Pop-Culture

0% 46% -$3,631

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 3275 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-82,348	-$67,662	97¢	$-80248	-$12,586	10-30 07:02
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	+51,374	$39,258	90¢	$46.0K	+$6,722	11-07 06:15
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+30,000	$27,708	98¢	$29.5K	+$1,797	09-17 18:53
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	+30,000	$20,600	90¢	$27.2K	+$6,550	11-05 16:37
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-22,941	-$19,247	98¢	$-22402	-$3,154	10-15 15:07
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	+21,438	$17,952	95¢	$20.4K	+$2,403	11-05 13:23
Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	+21,204	$18,417	87¢	$18.4K	+$31	11-07 09:37
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	No	-16,830	-$9,372	99¢	$-16720	-$7,348	06-05 17:53
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+16,611	$15,423	98¢	$16.3K	+$914	06-04 03:36
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	+14,483	$13,517	98¢	$14.2K	+$640	11-07 21:41
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	-14,485	-$11,064	92¢	$-13254	-$2,190	11-03 10:29
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+10,603	$10,202	98¢	$10.4K	+$221	11-07 11:14
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	-11,000	-$7,601	92¢	$-10175	-$2,573	11-07 23:09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+13,000	$8,853	76¢	$9.9K	+$1,092	11-06 21:06
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+10,000	$9,725	99¢	$9.9K	+$180	11-07 16:43
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	+10,000	$9,800	99¢	$9.9K	+$65	11-02 01:52
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	+10,079	$7,346	96¢	$9.6K	+$2,280	11-05 12:15
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+14,461	$17,326	66¢	$9.6K	-$7,709	11-07 12:03
Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Yes	+10,110	$7,795	77¢	$7.8K	-$10	11-07 22:33
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+11,407	$19,980	68¢	$7.7K	-$12,281	11-07 10:22
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	No	+8,338	$4,975	90¢	$7.5K	+$2,571	11-06 10:07
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	+6,000	$5,842	98¢	$5.9K	+$59	11-07 11:15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	+5,800	$5,753	100¢	$5.8K	+$35	11-07 12:17
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	No	+6,232	$4,845	92¢	$5.8K	+$920	11-05 15:14
Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	+5,972	$5,411	93¢	$5.6K	+$143	11-05 15:53
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	No	-6,000	-$4,516	90¢	$-5430	-$914	10-14 06:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+6,052	$1,554	90¢	$5.4K	+$3,862	10-11 21:06
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?	No	+6,086	$5,444	84¢	$5.1K	-$362	11-06 09:46
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	No	-5,695	-$5,420	89¢	$-5069	+$351	10-25 16:17
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+5,000	$4,745	95¢	$4.7K	-$2	11-06 22:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6,482	$4.40M	2,840,300	2,863,432	-23,132	No	-$40,088	07-02 01:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4,098	$4.08M	2,194,490	2,419,938	-225,448	No	+$28,056	05-31 21:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6,595	$3.84M	2,560,495	2,327,763	+232,732	No	-$17,417	06-01 03:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	1,846	$3.69M	2,239,759	1,830,687	+409,072	Yes	-$26,971	06-17 21:16
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	825	$2.60M	1,299,896	1,407,994	-108,098	Yes	+$6,970	04-08 23:29
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2,153	$2.45M	1,326,989	1,344,117	-17,128	No	+$10,197	05-26 00:02
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1,606	$1.99M	1,113,282	1,023,835	+89,447	Yes	+$13,113	03-17 12:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1,504	$1.90M	1,014,498	1,018,158	-3,660	No	+$12,857	05-12 02:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3,074	$1.81M	1,213,206	1,199,064	+14,142	No	+$15,533	07-28 03:37
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1,251	$1.66M	779,118	922,566	-143,448	Yes	+$0	01-28 20:14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	3,639	$1.63M	1,593,329	1,564,266	+29,063	open	—	10-11 21:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	495	$1.62M	815,420	870,236	-54,815	No	+$17,181	06-11 20:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4,165	$1.57M	1,363,858	1,321,852	+42,006	Yes	-$80,197	06-17 01:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1,542	$1.56M	999,458	851,225	+148,233	No	-$15,584	05-15 15:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2,986	$1.45M	826,923	882,219	-55,295	No	-$3,641	04-26 16:32
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1,926	$1.45M	767,027	783,927	-16,899	No	+$14,692	04-25 22:21
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1,213	$1.44M	1,132,690	569,899	+562,790	No	+$48,505	06-03 23:05
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1,494	$1.38M	874,962	667,813	+207,149	No	-$6,174	04-05 03:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1,936	$1.37M	827,159	758,292	+68,867	No	+$14,652	04-30 23:37
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3,496	$1.33M	2,570,710	2,426,094	+144,615	Yes	+$18,045	02-28 08:40
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	612	$1.33M	797,193	554,309	+242,885	Yes	+$1,600	02-04 00:15
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	666	$1.29M	855,953	489,755	+366,198	Yes	+$19,646	04-09 18:47
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2,038	$1.28M	1,019,348	1,015,627	+3,721	Yes	+$18,814	02-28 08:46
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	967	$1.24M	683,477	714,032	-30,555	No	+$712	03-24 23:19
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	813	$1.21M	614,639	642,187	-27,548	No	+$3,174	05-12 14:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	870	$1.12M	578,021	585,949	-7,928	Yes	+$4,095	03-02 16:56
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	768	$1.06M	1,903,480	1,948,833	-45,353	Yes	+$1,328	05-31 21:32
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1,540	$1.05M	645,920	444,747	+201,174	Yes	+$16,838	04-29 18:00
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	1,307	$1.02M	872,041	288,787	+583,254	No	+$11,471	05-01 10:01
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	481	$1.01M	606,252	558,149	+48,102	Yes	-$7,989	03-12 19:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 00:11:42	Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xbf9768…
11-08 00:07:00	Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0xd50d38…
11-08 00:00:04	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	17	81¢	$14	0x1c1ca5…
11-07 23:52:52	Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 1%?	No	SELL	31	93¢	$29	0x1ea056…
11-07 23:39:36	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	BUY	176	84¢	$148	0xcf08e4…
11-07 23:35:16	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	SELL	1,286	97¢	$1,244	0x5479de…
11-07 23:26:58	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 45 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	11	1¢	$0	0x7d34ae…
11-07 23:19:49	Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	77¢	$35	0x607060…
11-07 23:17:12	Carlson's Republican nomination odds hit 6% by December 31?	No	BUY	118	87¢	$103	0xfa1aca…
11-07 23:16:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-28 House election by 18%-21%?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0x19a7bc…
11-07 23:15:52	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-28 House election by 18%-21%?	Yes	BUY	211	0¢	$0	0x1465c6…
11-07 23:15:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-28 House election by 18%-21%?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x6e0a82…
11-07 23:09:36	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in October?	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x96ec7d…
11-07 23:09:27	Will Kathy Hochul win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xa4d49a…
11-07 23:09:19	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	1,986	92¢	$1,828	0xd26189…
11-07 23:00:13	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	224	76¢	$171	0xec038f…
11-07 22:44:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,255	96¢	$1,205	0xb7c8d2…
11-07 22:33:45	US imports Russian diesel by January 31?	No	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x463917…
11-07 22:33:40	US imports Russian diesel by January 31?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xf11f95…
11-07 22:33:40	US imports Russian diesel by January 31?	No	BUY	500	82¢	$410	0x39ba92…
11-07 22:33:39	US imports Russian diesel by January 31?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xca60b5…
11-07 22:33:39	Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0x66ae5a…
11-07 22:32:21	Will Rockstar release GTA VI on PC after March 2027?	Yes	BUY	54	74¢	$40	0xd8233b…
11-07 22:29:55	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	320	90¢	$287	0xf0c8ed…
11-07 22:29:55	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	231	89¢	$206	0xe30079…
11-07 22:29:55	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	261	90¢	$234	0xb7ead9…
11-07 22:29:55	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	630	90¢	$564	0x2b9d05…
11-07 22:29:55	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	75	90¢	$67	0x1203a3…
11-07 22:29:55	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x0d5e52…
11-07 22:29:46	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xcd07be…
11-07 22:29:40	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	BUY	23	84¢	$20	0xdd9ba6…
11-07 22:26:21	Any member-elect blocked from being sworn in?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x195c52…
11-07 22:25:34	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	1,623	99¢	$1,610	0x13ad3f…
11-07 22:18:10	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	SELL	25	86¢	$22	0xa93dba…
11-07 22:11:43	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x8625bc…
11-07 22:09:27	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0xba5278…
11-07 22:09:25	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0xf6588e…
11-07 22:09:25	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	BUY	47	92¢	$43	0x90a4b5…
11-07 22:09:25	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	470	6¢	$28	0x356311…
11-07 22:09:25	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	No	BUY	21	92¢	$19	0x291af5…
11-07 22:08:55	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	Yes	SELL	308	91¢	$281	0x5d41d0…
11-07 22:01:18	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	712	88¢	$626	0x52e02a…
11-07 22:00:54	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	6¢	$60	0x9243b1…
11-07 21:56:37	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $20.25B by November 30?	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x15c059…
11-07 21:47:28	Aryeh Deri out as Shas Leader by December 31?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x06d6cb…
11-07 21:41:31	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	1,572	97¢	$1,531	0x828bb1…
11-07 21:37:43	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	530	6¢	$32	0xff307d…
11-07 21:35:13	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x924ead…
11-07 21:32:45	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	SELL	238	86¢	$205	0x7abe9a…
11-07 21:28:55	Will Kathy Hochul win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0x4b8732…
11-07 21:28:48	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x08dab1…
11-07 21:26:12	Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	102	86¢	$88	0x8e94fe…
11-07 21:24:31	Will Bill Hill win the AK-AL House seat?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xff995a…
11-07 21:24:31	Will Bill Hill win the AK-AL House seat?	No	BUY	107	95¢	$102	0xe67e95…
11-07 21:24:31	Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?	Yes	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xdbfc9c…
11-07 21:24:31	Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?	Yes	BUY	137	94¢	$128	0xcc6b4f…
11-07 21:24:31	Will Bill Hill win the AK-AL House seat?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x8db361…
11-07 21:24:31	Will Bill Hill win the AK-AL House seat?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x8340b2…
11-07 21:24:31	Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?	Yes	BUY	363	94¢	$340	0x226bb3…
11-07 21:22:45	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	206	76¢	$157	0x1fe77e…
11-07 21:22:25	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x75bc35…
11-07 21:16:58	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x896715…
11-07 21:16:58	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x416ba2…
11-07 21:16:58	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x2a93f1…
11-07 21:16:57	Government shutdown by December 12?	No	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0xf05e9b…
11-07 21:16:57	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	BUY	31	61¢	$19	0x1ba7e6…
11-07 21:16:55	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x7ad5c3…
11-07 21:16:55	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	BUY	40	61¢	$24	0x4606b8…
11-07 21:16:55	Government shutdown by December 31?	No	BUY	14	61¢	$9	0x37e2b2…
11-07 21:08:49	Next Israeli government a minority government?	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x543e81…
11-07 21:00:10	Will Liu Chien-kuo win the next Yunlin County Magistrate election?	No	SELL	227	88¢	$200	0x319260…
11-07 20:58:43	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0xc4cb14…
11-07 20:56:37	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	No	SELL	489	86¢	$421	0x5169ec…
11-07 20:56:21	Will Bill Hill win the AK-AL House seat?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x588f2e…
11-07 20:55:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1,000	80¢	$797	0x73b5fb…
11-07 20:52:24	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$27	0x68cdae…
11-07 20:52:04	Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	19	89¢	$17	0x67f08f…
11-07 20:51:12	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	159	89¢	$142	0x3d7527…
11-07 20:40:00	Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	6	88¢	$6	0x743af0…
11-07 20:37:57	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	154	79¢	$121	0x4e3750…
11-07 20:34:13	Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x6993bb…
11-07 20:33:58	Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	86¢	$20	0x0a241c…
11-07 20:29:42	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	602	91¢	$548	0x8ec7d9…
11-07 20:15:06	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0xaffda3…
11-07 20:13:40	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	227	66¢	$149	0x667aff…
11-07 20:08:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	273	66¢	$179	0x3db010…
11-07 20:06:40	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-14 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x19edcb…
11-07 19:57:37	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	16¢	$4	0x737858…
11-07 19:56:03	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	16¢	$3	0x88544f…
11-07 19:55:28	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x4c0167…
11-07 19:55:03	Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	394	95¢	$375	0xc87008…
11-07 19:53:45	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	360	73¢	$263	0xf16c59…
11-07 19:53:43	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	118	73¢	$86	0x98333f…
11-07 19:53:03	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	17¢	$4	0xe696fa…
11-07 19:53:00	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xb722dc…
11-07 19:47:25	Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	800	95¢	$761	0x96f0e2…
11-07 19:45:36	Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xd0aa25…
11-07 19:45:18	Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?	No	BUY	66	85¢	$56	0xc166c5…
11-07 19:38:43	Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2028?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0xca19a8…
11-07 19:38:19	Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0x431cc4…