Hideous-Racer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$150.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$16.9K

Hit rate

69.1%

Resolved

28,870

Trades

766,790

lifetime

Volume

$262.0M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$342

Open exposure

$394.6K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-05 07:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 309 days

Categories

Other

47% 54% +$311,083

Politics

46% 58% -$191,717

Crypto

4% 64% +$113,796

Sports

2% 54% -$60,164

Tech

2% 53% -$18,429

Pop-Culture

0% 46% -$3,631

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 3275 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-82,348	-$67,662	97¢	$-79877	-$12,215	10-30 07:02
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	+51,340	$39,230	87¢	$44.7K	+$5,436	11-04 17:08
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+30,000	$27,708	98¢	$29.4K	+$1,737	09-17 18:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-22,941	-$19,247	98¢	$-22402	-$3,154	10-15 15:07
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	+21,297	$17,821	92¢	$19.6K	+$1,750	11-05 08:25
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	No	-16,830	-$9,372	99¢	$-16586	-$7,213	06-05 17:53
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+16,611	$15,423	98¢	$16.3K	+$898	06-04 03:36
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	-14,485	-$11,064	92¢	$-13398	-$2,335	11-03 10:29
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	+12,411	$9,538	94¢	$11.6K	+$2,066	11-04 17:27
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	-12,000	-$8,462	92¢	$-11100	-$2,638	11-04 13:38
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	+11,000	$10,540	100¢	$11.0K	+$450	11-04 04:35
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+10,000	$9,539	96¢	$9.6K	+$81	11-04 19:59
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	+10,000	$9,800	95¢	$9.5K	-$305	11-02 01:52
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	No	+9,944	$6,461	90¢	$9.0K	+$2,538	11-05 05:11
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	+8,940	$8,735	88¢	$7.8K	-$913	11-04 12:39
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+10,461	$14,616	73¢	$7.6K	-$7,011	11-05 02:13
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	+8,468	$6,915	84¢	$7.2K	+$240	11-03 13:42
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+7,145	$6,675	100¢	$7.1K	+$463	11-03 22:42
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	+6,738	$6,480	100¢	$6.7K	+$247	11-03 23:35
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	+7,073	$6,327	94¢	$6.7K	+$357	11-05 04:50
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	No	+6,632	$5,207	90¢	$5.9K	+$729	11-03 19:55
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	No	-6,000	-$4,516	90¢	$-5370	-$854	10-14 06:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+6,052	$1,554	88¢	$5.3K	+$3,741	10-11 21:06
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+5,372	$5,977	94¢	$5.1K	-$901	11-05 04:43
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	+5,212	$4,875	96¢	$5.0K	+$155	11-05 00:35
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	No	-5,695	-$5,420	86¢	$-4926	+$494	10-25 16:17
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	+5,181	$4,647	86¢	$4.5K	-$165	10-19 17:47
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+4,000	$3,746	97¢	$3.9K	+$118	11-05 03:56
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+4,000	$3,234	94¢	$3.7K	+$516	11-05 00:41
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	+4,027	$4,856	91¢	$3.7K	-$1,185	11-04 14:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	6,482	$4.40M	2,840,300	2,863,432	-23,132	No	-$40,088	07-02 01:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4,098	$4.08M	2,194,490	2,419,938	-225,448	No	+$28,056	05-31 21:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	6,595	$3.84M	2,560,495	2,327,763	+232,732	No	-$17,417	06-01 03:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	1,846	$3.69M	2,239,759	1,830,687	+409,072	Yes	-$26,971	06-17 21:16
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	825	$2.60M	1,299,896	1,407,994	-108,098	Yes	+$6,970	04-08 23:29
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2,153	$2.45M	1,326,989	1,344,117	-17,128	No	+$10,197	05-26 00:02
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1,606	$1.99M	1,113,282	1,023,835	+89,447	Yes	+$13,113	03-17 12:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1,504	$1.90M	1,014,498	1,018,158	-3,660	No	+$12,857	05-12 02:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3,074	$1.81M	1,213,206	1,199,064	+14,142	No	+$15,533	07-28 03:37
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1,251	$1.66M	779,118	922,566	-143,448	Yes	+$0	01-28 20:14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	3,639	$1.63M	1,593,329	1,564,266	+29,063	open	—	10-11 21:06
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	495	$1.62M	815,420	870,236	-54,815	No	+$17,181	06-11 20:07
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4,165	$1.57M	1,363,858	1,321,852	+42,006	Yes	-$80,197	06-17 01:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1,542	$1.56M	999,458	851,225	+148,233	No	-$15,584	05-15 15:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2,986	$1.45M	826,923	882,219	-55,295	No	-$3,641	04-26 16:32
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1,926	$1.45M	767,027	783,927	-16,899	No	+$14,692	04-25 22:21
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1,213	$1.44M	1,132,690	569,899	+562,790	No	+$48,505	06-03 23:05
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1,494	$1.38M	874,962	667,813	+207,149	No	-$6,174	04-05 03:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1,936	$1.37M	827,159	758,292	+68,867	No	+$14,652	04-30 23:37
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3,496	$1.33M	2,570,710	2,426,094	+144,615	Yes	+$18,045	02-28 08:40
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	612	$1.33M	797,193	554,309	+242,885	Yes	+$1,600	02-04 00:15
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	666	$1.29M	855,953	489,755	+366,198	Yes	+$19,646	04-09 18:47
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2,038	$1.28M	1,019,348	1,015,627	+3,721	Yes	+$18,814	02-28 08:46
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	967	$1.24M	683,477	714,032	-30,555	No	+$712	03-24 23:19
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	813	$1.21M	614,639	642,187	-27,548	No	+$3,174	05-12 14:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	870	$1.12M	578,021	585,949	-7,928	Yes	+$4,095	03-02 16:56
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	768	$1.06M	1,903,480	1,948,833	-45,353	Yes	+$1,328	05-31 21:32
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1,540	$1.05M	645,920	444,747	+201,174	Yes	+$16,838	04-29 18:00
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	1,307	$1.02M	872,041	288,787	+583,254	No	+$11,471	05-01 10:01
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	481	$1.01M	606,252	558,149	+48,102	Yes	-$7,989	03-12 19:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 08:58:46	Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?	No	BUY	1,000	44¢	$440	0xb4e1e1…
11-05 08:56:19	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	177	8¢	$14	0x8b08df…
11-05 08:55:57	Will Mississippi be the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	93¢	$58	0x6f5070…
11-05 08:51:01	Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	No	SELL	647	88¢	$569	0x8d2b49…
11-05 08:31:54	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	76	23¢	$18	0x8cfba1…
11-05 08:31:13	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	200	23¢	$46	0x3482e4…
11-05 08:27:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x6121b8…
11-05 08:26:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	265	48¢	$127	0xed3d8e…
11-05 08:26:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	280	47¢	$131	0xe969ff…
11-05 08:26:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0x684bfa…
11-05 08:26:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0x4d2ba5…
11-05 08:25:34	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	SELL	56	93¢	$52	0x527bac…
11-05 08:25:33	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0x96893d…
11-05 08:25:10	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	SELL	866	93¢	$805	0x911b55…
11-05 08:21:07	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x07fc48…
11-05 08:09:57	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	86	73¢	$63	0xbbcf9c…
11-05 08:08:39	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	2,000	27¢	$532	0x0840db…
11-05 08:06:27	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,000	3¢	$32	0x071094…
11-05 08:04:25	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	17	92¢	$15	0xf7fdfc…
11-05 08:01:51	Will Trump say "Allah" on November 4?	Yes	BUY	38	0¢	$0	0xf22cc8…
11-05 08:01:45	Aryeh Deri out as Shas Leader by December 31?	No	SELL	15	87¢	$13	0xcd34b9…
11-05 07:58:27	Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and US gas not hit $3.50 by the end of 2026?	No	BUY	106	5¢	$6	0xa0e7b1…
11-05 07:55:30	Will Mississippi be the closest Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	93¢	$75	0xa07b44…
11-05 07:49:24	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x8f3189…
11-05 07:42:46	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	29¢	$286	0x73572e…
11-05 07:40:21	Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and US gas not hit $3.50 by the end of 2026?	No	BUY	219	5¢	$12	0x2eec20…
11-05 07:35:10	Will Trump say "Allah" on November 4?	Yes	BUY	152	0¢	$0	0x6ce351…
11-05 07:31:06	Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and US gas not hit $3.50 by the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0x1ed098…
11-05 07:22:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?	Yes	SELL	1,003	96¢	$963	0xc1b21c…
11-05 07:21:48	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?	No	SELL	198	96¢	$191	0x7866a5…
11-05 07:20:43	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	124	23¢	$28	0x3bb90f…
11-05 07:19:22	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1,000	87¢	$870	0x933c3c…
11-05 07:15:21	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	292	92¢	$269	0xf2100e…
11-05 07:15:21	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	52	92¢	$48	0x1192e7…
11-05 07:13:55	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x121b3e…
11-05 07:13:33	Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0x42262d…
11-05 07:11:34	Will Wang Mei-hui win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xe32702…
11-05 07:09:48	Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?	No	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0x1b6112…
11-05 07:09:45	Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xe635fe…
11-05 07:09:42	Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x93f81f…
11-05 07:09:42	Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?	No	BUY	29	74¢	$22	0x125532…
11-05 07:09:42	Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?	No	BUY	1,000	76¢	$760	0x0ed584…
11-05 07:03:45	Will Drake release a new album by December 31?	No	SELL	84	88¢	$74	0xd62d77…
11-05 07:02:15	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xf0722f…
11-05 07:01:28	Will Jay Z appear at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x01776b…
11-05 07:01:27	Will Jay Z appear at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	BUY	157	3¢	$5	0xf0444a…
11-05 06:58:39	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5,000	3¢	$150	0xd4164a…
11-05 06:53:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,000	78¢	$1,560	0xeff049…
11-05 06:52:52	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	877	77¢	$675	0x5f5ecd…
11-05 06:39:09	Will Katherine Clark be the next House Majority Leader?	No	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0xee2988…
11-05 06:38:57	Will Katherine Clark be the next House Majority Leader?	No	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xa25aff…
11-05 06:34:57	Will Wang Mei-hui win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	130	75¢	$97	0xba6cc0…
11-05 06:21:21	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	59	22¢	$13	0x991d31…
11-05 06:17:30	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	122	7¢	$8	0x334f81…
11-05 06:08:16	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	36	22¢	$8	0x09b0c0…
11-05 05:56:48	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	63	82¢	$52	0x6a74ba…
11-05 05:55:04	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	90	79¢	$71	0xbfc375…
11-05 05:52:37	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x5522b3…
11-05 05:49:49	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xb7d628…
11-05 05:46:25	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	296	7¢	$21	0xb3c18a…
11-05 05:45:34	Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and US gas hit $3.50 by the end of 2026?	No	BUY	45	93¢	$42	0x866424…
11-05 05:35:54	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	392	3¢	$11	0x9cfd04…
11-05 05:29:49	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	1,286	85¢	$1,093	0xaa3e9f…
11-05 05:29:49	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x804ab0…
11-05 05:28:22	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x812a33…
11-05 05:27:58	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	No	BUY	118	92¢	$108	0x731686…
11-05 05:25:45	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	No	BUY	62	92¢	$57	0x46b830…
11-05 05:22:06	Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x936446…
11-05 05:20:25	Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	37	65¢	$24	0x29518d…
11-05 05:20:06	Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xf9fb23…
11-05 05:19:21	Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0x1bc125…
11-05 05:15:07	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xc058bf…
11-05 05:14:33	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	3	3¢	$0	0xa98011…
11-05 05:12:48	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2028 elections?	Yes	BUY	250	23¢	$57	0x4b80f9…
11-05 05:11:57	UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	No	SELL	268	91¢	$244	0xdbf62f…
11-05 05:05:45	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	180	93¢	$168	0x0c79ca…
11-05 05:02:33	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	5¢	$153	0xd7997a…
11-05 05:01:48	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	140	86¢	$121	0xb28462…
11-05 05:01:40	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	246	86¢	$211	0x4a7269…
11-05 05:01:39	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x2d58d2…
11-05 04:50:03	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	2,000	95¢	$1,900	0x1c95b7…
11-05 04:49:22	Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	5,000	5¢	$245	0xa5dba4…
11-05 04:43:36	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	95¢	$32	0x92044b…
11-05 04:33:55	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?	No	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0xb1a5f5…
11-05 04:26:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?	Yes	BUY	317	95¢	$301	0x556de8…
11-05 04:16:49	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	55	86¢	$47	0x940a3e…
11-05 04:16:46	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	78	86¢	$67	0xa7f234…
11-05 04:16:18	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	335	86¢	$288	0xac6171…
11-05 04:16:16	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	78	86¢	$67	0x574b3f…
11-05 04:16:16	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x4ad932…
11-05 04:16:16	Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	55	86¢	$47	0x22ac4b…
11-05 04:15:27	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xe0ea64…
11-05 04:15:27	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	120	92¢	$110	0x8cac98…
11-05 04:15:15	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x9e3c42…
11-05 04:15:15	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	120	92¢	$110	0x769cdf…
11-05 04:14:27	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	96	92¢	$88	0xc30c24…
11-05 04:14:27	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0x2b4b19…
11-05 04:14:18	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xf54091…
11-05 04:14:16	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	48	92¢	$44	0xff6cf0…
11-05 04:13:51	Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0x787098…