Realized P&L
-$241
Unrealized P&L
-$91
Hit rate
76.2%
Resolved
1,579
Trades
21,436
lifetime
Volume
$114.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$763
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-21
last 10-27 03:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 117 days
Categories
Other
62% 69% -$169
Politics
19% 73% -$27
Crypto
9% 60% -$24
Sports
5% 77% +$8
Tech
5% 74% -$28
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 477 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +200 $114 56¢ $113 -$1 10-26 22:04
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? No +100 $83 79¢ $79 -$4 10-27 02:12
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +100 $79 68¢ $68 -$10 10-26 11:48
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +200 $79 33¢ $66 -$13 10-26 14:17
will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232 No +100 $57 46¢ $46 -$12 10-26 10:37
Blue tsunami in 2026? No +80 $34 41¢ $33 -$1 10-27 01:11
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +160 $34 20¢ $32 -$2 10-26 14:21
Kash Patel out by December 31? No -40 -$31 80¢ $-32 -$1 10-13 18:15
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +40 $28 70¢ $28 +$0 09-23 20:51
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $31 26¢ $26 -$6 10-24 05:23
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? No +41 $26 61¢ $25 -$1 10-26 23:34
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +80 $24 30¢ $24 $0 10-26 11:04
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $28 22¢ $22 -$6 10-26 15:14
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +100 $23 19¢ $19 -$4 10-26 21:48
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? No +40 $22 48¢ $19 -$3 10-24 23:07
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +30 $23 60¢ $18 -$5 10-25 08:42
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +50 $19 30¢ $15 -$4 10-23 18:29
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? Yes +47 $18 32¢ $15 -$3 10-26 17:06
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 +20 $12 61¢ $12 +$0 10-26 14:21
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? No +15 $15 80¢ $12 -$3 10-25 15:59
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +40 $12 29¢ $11 -$1 10-25 04:31
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes +50 $12 16¢ $8 -$4 10-26 12:31
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Yes +40 $4 13¢ $5 +$1 10-26 17:39
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026? No +5 $4 96¢ $5 +$1 08-13 11:08
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No +5 $4 96¢ $5 +$1 07-08 14:18
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +5 $4 96¢ $5 +$1 08-28 16:14
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? No +5 $2 95¢ $5 +$3 08-17 15:59
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? No +5 $4 95¢ $5 +$0 08-15 04:32
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? No +50 $22 9¢ $5 -$17 10-25 22:02
will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638 No +5 $3 94¢ $5 +$1 07-13 02:39