Interesting-Aspic — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.26K

Unrealized P&L

+$2.33K

Hit rate

49.8%

Resolved

746

Trades

10,623

lifetime

Volume

$92.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$7.00K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-20 14:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 197 days

Categories

Other

49% 47% -$857

Politics

32% 41% -$2,287

Sports

14% 59% -$37

Tech

2% 45% -$41

Crypto

2% 65% -$37

Pop-Culture

0% 33% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 100 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Discord IPO before 2027?	No	+633	$273	94¢	$595	+$322	07-11 05:11
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+585	$286	100¢	$582	+$297	08-21 14:37
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	+668	$350	86¢	$578	+$229	08-13 18:38
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+596	$268	83¢	$495	+$226	07-31 12:04
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	+469	$262	91¢	$427	+$165	06-19 22:21
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	Yes	+388	$201	98¢	$381	+$180	08-16 19:20
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	No	+390	$221	96¢	$376	+$156	05-10 21:30
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	+373	$201	82¢	$304	+$103	07-31 20:00
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	No	+281	$138	98¢	$276	+$139	09-02 11:56
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	+279	$146	86¢	$238	+$93	08-15 14:36
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	No	+270	$139	86¢	$231	+$92	10-01 09:47
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+206	$113	100¢	$206	+$94	08-09 09:25
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+279	$155	70¢	$197	+$42	08-14 03:58
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+324	$136	60¢	$194	+$58	08-05 08:07
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	+196	$113	97¢	$189	+$76	07-09 17:00
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	+193	$86	82¢	$159	+$73	08-13 16:30
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?	No	+164	$100	86¢	$142	+$42	08-23 09:22
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+324	$194	40¢	$130	-$65	08-10 08:43
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Yes	+155	$60	84¢	$129	+$69	08-27 17:43
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	+173	$102	72¢	$124	+$22	08-12 18:41
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	No	+134	$71	90¢	$120	+$50	07-08 20:55
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	+145	$69	80¢	$115	+$47	08-27 12:23
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?	No	+116	$62	94¢	$109	+$47	07-17 10:11
will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	No	+119	$66	92¢	$109	+$43	08-24 18:08
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	+126	$67	84¢	$105	+$39	05-13 18:18
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	No	+105	$59	97¢	$102	+$43	06-16 13:25
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+596	$319	17¢	$101	-$218	07-31 15:42
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	+718	$331	14¢	$97	-$234	08-13 18:56
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	+95	$52	100¢	$95	+$43	08-09 23:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+101	$39	94¢	$95	+$56	05-26 05:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	30	$1.9K	6,820	2,900	+3,920	No	+$633	01-16 19:54
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	106	$1.4K	2,829	1	+2,828	No	+$22	04-25 18:49
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	118	$981	1,996	0	+1,996	Yes	+$17	04-14 06:52
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	108	$981	1,632	345	+1,287	Yes	+$174	02-28 17:13
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	39	$961	1,918	0	+1,918	No	-$2	06-22 08:37
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	44	$958	930	580	+350	Yes	+$1	02-28 06:49
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	19	$802	7,300	0	+7,300	No	-$802	01-16 16:29
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	57	$760	1,539	0	+1,539	Yes	+$9	06-16 09:33
will arvell reese be the second pick in the 2026 nfl draft	50	$755	1,521	0	+1,521	No	+$4	04-23 20:59
will juan pablo velasco win the 2026 santa cruz gubernatorial election 929	111	$733	1,474	0	+1,474	Yes	+$4	04-13 12:58
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	166	$729	1,487	0	+1,487	Yes	+$9	03-07 00:00
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	48	$680	1,387	0	+1,387	open	—	08-13 18:56
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	81	$677	1,330	0	+1,330	No	-$22	04-26 22:12
bitboy convicted	192	$668	1,381	0	+1,381	No	+$31	03-31 07:46
Discord IPO before 2027?	60	$615	1,246	0	+1,246	open	—	07-17 12:56
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	37	$614	1,211	0	+1,211	No	-$9	06-22 20:11
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	17	$590	6,000	0	+6,000	No	-$590	01-29 12:59
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	31	$588	1,192	0	+1,192	open	—	07-31 15:42
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	49	$581	1,171	0	+1,171	open	—	08-22 16:34
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	27	$545	1,015	0	+1,015	Yes	-$37	08-14 10:59
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?	33	$524	1,061	0	+1,061	open	—	08-15 04:02
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	111	$489	930	26	+904	Yes	+$0	02-28 06:10
will jeremiyah love be the third pick in the 2026 nfl draft	33	$476	958	0	+958	Yes	+$3	04-23 23:55
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title?	36	$471	926	0	+926	Yes	-$8	08-05 01:06
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	40	$457	896	0	+896	open	—	06-19 22:21
will trump visit china by march 31	115	$430	882	0	+882	No	+$24	03-10 00:51
will david bailey be the third pick in the 2026 nfl draft	51	$407	830	0	+830	No	+$8	04-24 00:16
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	20	$406	792	0	+792	Yes	-$10	09-02 23:49
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	32	$406	818	0	+818	No	+$3	08-18 14:04
will david bailey be the second pick in the 2026 nfl draft	29	$404	810	0	+810	Yes	+$1	04-23 20:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 14:13:42	Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2027?	No	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0xe41f9a…
10-13 15:49:12	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x0817ec…
10-09 09:33:21	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	43	42¢	$18	0x82f4b3…
10-09 09:32:15	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	42¢	$0	0x140c7c…
10-06 11:20:42	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x7ef282…
10-05 18:28:14	Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Yes	BUY	17	65¢	$11	0x8a6ba9…
10-03 17:48:51	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	23	80¢	$18	0x6979f1…
10-03 15:59:38	Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0xf64c6a…
10-01 09:47:47	Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xe300f9…
09-26 18:06:50	Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x1baa16…
09-21 10:45:51	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x5b4283…
09-21 10:45:30	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xafb562…
09-21 10:45:30	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	BUY	19	67¢	$13	0x2d57f1…
09-17 14:27:48	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?	No	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0x32be41…
09-13 17:29:18	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	43	74¢	$31	0x352ffb…
09-10 09:19:13	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	No	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x286d85…
09-10 09:19:12	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	No	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x7a185f…
09-07 05:34:40	Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xca4ea0…
09-07 05:01:22	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	48	53¢	$26	0xb5d4b8…
09-07 01:18:19	Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xfbbd2c…
09-06 17:02:46	Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xcbdd27…
09-06 16:20:43	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	BUY	50	47¢	$23	0xa92fb8…
09-06 16:02:30	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xdb02b2…
09-06 15:44:19	Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xba4c48…
09-06 12:20:43	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	No	BUY	49	33¢	$16	0xf2ffea…
09-06 07:25:18	Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	Yes	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0x5912a4…
09-06 06:22:51	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xe698e8…
09-06 04:11:43	Will Michael Sowers win the 2026 PLL Attackman of the Year?	No	BUY	24	46¢	$11	0xc6f4f6…
09-06 03:50:37	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	No	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x92087f…
09-05 21:44:33	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	Yes	BUY	40	42¢	$17	0xb7e105…
09-05 21:44:30	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xd371c4…
09-05 21:40:01	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x34782b…
09-05 14:11:52	Will Drake be the second most streamed artist for 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0x9883ef…
09-05 06:46:25	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xcd0bd3…
09-05 00:57:52	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x8c5efd…
09-04 23:12:12	Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	No	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x075a9a…
09-04 17:32:49	Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	No	BUY	32	59¢	$19	0xa6ae08…
09-04 17:31:43	Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan?	No	BUY	32	53¢	$17	0x701910…
09-04 14:43:01	Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x464072…
09-04 14:03:49	Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?	No	BUY	19	46¢	$9	0x1cb638…
09-04 13:56:46	Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0x1e3a58…
09-04 12:53:01	Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	No	BUY	36	47¢	$17	0xf49669…
09-04 12:39:07	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x72a969…
09-04 12:34:37	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x0cf39b…
09-04 11:00:49	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0xba235c…
09-04 10:07:37	Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?	No	BUY	0	64¢	$0	0x5abba5…
09-04 09:55:15	Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe24ff0…
09-04 07:49:45	Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x944785…
09-04 07:29:07	Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xcb0e3d…
09-04 07:29:03	Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x307819…
09-04 07:24:52	Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?	No	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x8a4567…
09-04 06:32:10	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x2594c2…
09-04 06:06:15	Will Luis Arraez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x8eeb4d…
09-04 05:47:57	Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan?	No	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x34438f…
09-04 05:05:42	Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	No	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0x4ad806…
09-04 00:52:46	Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x75d5b9…
09-04 00:14:28	Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x083d48…
09-03 17:01:39	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?	No	BUY	14	61¢	$9	0xbfe2b9…
09-03 16:50:01	Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	38¢	$5	0x77641f…
09-03 14:50:03	Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x40bc30…
09-03 14:11:31	Will Drake be the second most streamed artist for 2026?	No	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0x6783b2…
09-03 12:37:21	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x508c3e…
09-03 09:50:33	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x9b4c15…
09-03 07:27:07	Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xc394fb…
09-03 07:27:04	Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x5b73ec…
09-03 04:17:12	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	No	BUY	33	44¢	$14	0x97345a…
09-03 04:16:28	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x816efd…
09-03 04:11:27	Will Michael Sowers win the 2026 PLL Attackman of the Year?	Yes	BUY	24	54¢	$13	0xd28353…
09-03 03:51:04	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x4535c3…
09-03 03:50:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x52f726…
09-03 03:19:07	Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0xdf03fe…
09-03 02:16:12	Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0xa0c39b…
09-02 23:49:10	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	41¢	$17	0x79a0d5…
09-02 23:38:42	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	56¢	$23	0x6d7c8f…
09-02 23:05:49	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	Yes	BUY	24	43¢	$10	0x223a26…
09-02 21:31:45	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x05fe9c…
09-02 21:20:07	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x76e937…
09-02 21:19:57	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xa0d939…
09-02 20:16:12	Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	No	BUY	29	58¢	$17	0xe3e2db…
09-02 13:30:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Yes	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x7a3297…
09-02 11:56:49	Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x89f884…
09-02 05:08:57	Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?	No	BUY	14	48¢	$7	0xf629fd…
09-01 21:36:19	Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	BUY	26	36¢	$9	0x4fd295…
09-01 20:22:16	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x353534…
09-01 20:22:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x4e107e…
09-01 17:53:34	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	No	BUY	13	57¢	$7	0x02aebe…
09-01 17:15:28	Tom Holland as Spider-Man?	No	BUY	28	44¢	$12	0x060df7…
09-01 16:10:15	Will Caitlin Clark have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xc9c91b…
09-01 16:10:13	Will Caitlin Clark have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xb6bcf6…
09-01 15:26:58	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	BUY	50	42¢	$21	0xcd3cf2…
09-01 15:00:09	SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x061dbc…
09-01 14:03:28	Will Caitlin Clark have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?	No	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0x05dd26…
09-01 14:03:15	Will Caitlin Clark have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?	No	BUY	15	41¢	$6	0x736f0a…
09-01 13:26:31	Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x46477f…
09-01 13:15:30	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	48	50¢	$24	0x0bea72…
09-01 09:05:37	Will Caitlin Clark have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?	Yes	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x9aa9e9…
09-01 09:03:25	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x427bfd…
09-01 04:07:54	Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Yes	BUY	29	46¢	$13	0x80ec0f…
09-01 03:07:25	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x03aa8b…
09-01 02:48:39	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0x75a38e…