Realized P&L
-$14
Unrealized P&L
-$36
Hit rate
75.1%
Resolved
10
Trades
2,039
lifetime
Volume
$18.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$299
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-09
last 07-01 07:09
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Other
57% 71% $-1
Crypto
26%
Politics
11% 0% $-5
Pop-Culture
4%
Sports
1% 0% $-8
Tech
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027? Yes -63 $-25 46¢ $-29 $-4 06-22 12:39
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? No +25 $21 84¢ $21 +$0 07-01 07:09
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes +98 $19 16¢ $16 $-3 06-23 17:52
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No +54 $15 24¢ $13 $-2 06-24 17:03
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes +34 $11 36¢ $12 +$1 06-23 22:53
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +15 $10 73¢ $11 +$1 06-30 19:05
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +45 $13 24¢ $11 $-2 06-25 00:03
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +15 $10 70¢ $10 +$0 06-29 20:23
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026? Yes +62 $10 16¢ $10 +$0 06-25 11:11
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +15 $10 68¢ $10 +$0 06-30 02:34
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +12 $10 83¢ $10 $-0 07-01 01:01
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No +13 $10 74¢ $10 $-0 06-29 17:53
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +32 $10 30¢ $9 $-0 06-17 18:40
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes +45 $10 20¢ $9 $-1 06-24 18:55
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +32 $10 29¢ $9 $-1 06-17 20:37
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +36 $10 24¢ $9 $-1 06-17 13:52
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No +52 $11 15¢ $8 $-3 06-23 09:46
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes +56 $10 15¢ $8 $-2 06-20 19:49
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes +58 $12 14¢ $8 $-5 06-21 03:53
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +50 $10 16¢ $8 $-2 06-21 11:46
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes +27 $9 27¢ $7 $-2 06-24 08:59
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +30 $10 24¢ $7 $-3 06-21 11:46
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes +58 $10 12¢ $7 $-3 06-17 17:36
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes +45 $10 16¢ $7 $-3 06-18 22:39
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +38 $10 18¢ $7 $-3 06-28 01:54
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes +62 $10 11¢ $7 $-3 06-21 08:53
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes +69 $5 10¢ $7 +$1 06-25 06:16
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? No -18 $-8 36¢ $-6 +$2 06-09 02:44
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes +60 $10 11¢ $6 $-4 06-21 13:49
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes -18 $-11 34¢ $-6 +$5 06-25 19:12