Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
open
Total volume
$64,425
$1,683 in 24h
Trades
825
Unique wallets
218
Liquidity
$28,184
Latest YES mid
20¢
Latest NO mid
80¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-18 22:39
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-23.2¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $5.3K
vs crowd: 23% YES on $39.9K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 18 | $834 | $7.4K | $6.5K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 31 | $278 | $9.9K | $9.7K |
| 🐟 Fish | 49 | $7.0K | $8.8K | $1.9K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 120 | $1.2K | $4.5K | $3.3K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 7 | — | $5.3K | $5.3K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 13 | $6.2K | $1.4K | +$4.9K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 9 | $79 | $895 | $816 |
| Median | 17 | $1 | $1.0K | $1.0K |
| Below median | 47 | $124 | $1.2K | $1.1K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 13 | $115 | $910 | $795 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 19 | $245 | $5.3K | $5.0K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 14 | $640 | $4.0K | $3.4K |
| unranked | 79 | $1.8K | $10.6K | $8.8K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bronze-Hostess 0xda2d…1cee | Yes | +24,637 | $6,216 | $6,216 | 52 | 06-04 10:55 |
| General-Councilman 0xacea…8b97 | No | +7,671 | $5,697 | $5,697 | 5 | 06-05 00:01 |
| Faraway-Hardcover 0x8c57…f939 | No | +2,814 | $2,250 | $2,250 | 1 | 06-11 17:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x75a2…6992 | Yes | +2,311 | $494 | $494 | 2 | 06-18 11:21 |
| Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4 | Yes | +2,029 | $460 | $460 | 1 | 06-02 17:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x3d09…654f | Yes | +1,771 | $400 | $400 | 2 | 06-18 21:23 |
| Monopoly_Money 0x7ea7…79ac | No | +1,749 | $1,337 | $1,337 | 4 | 06-04 10:55 |
| Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | No | +1,695 | $1,261 | $1,261 | 10 | 06-08 22:15 |
| Dead-Lava 0x629b…995a | No | +1,555 | $1,155 | $1,155 | 2 | 05-31 20:01 |
| Plastic-Larder 0x355e…a038 | No | +1,300 | $983 | $1,311 | 13 | 06-18 21:23 |
| Monthly-Paranoia 0xc85d…18b2 | No | +1,127 | $853 | $853 | 33 | 06-04 10:55 |
| Shallow-Polyp 0x39b0…07d1 | Yes | +1,020 | $245 | $245 | 25 | 05-29 11:33 |
| Elegant-Unique 0x9879…5e70 | No | +1,018 | $799 | $799 | 6 | 05-30 17:44 |
| Deficient-Ark 0x730d…d448 | No | +1,000 | $810 | $810 | 2 | 06-18 11:21 |
| Liquid-Comment 0x8fe7…4f20 | Yes | +979 | $245 | $245 | 1 | 05-29 11:00 |
| Untrue-Croup 0xdf6c…eb44 | No | +790 | $601 | $601 | 5 | 06-08 22:06 |
| Weird-Freedom 0xeca0…e8f8 | No | +750 | $606 | $606 | 2 | 06-12 09:07 |
| Raw-Steam 0x588c…1bf4 | No | +600 | $462 | $624 | 5 | 06-17 14:59 |
| Indolent-Entry 0xf1a5…3dc3 | Yes | +600 | $150 | $150 | 1 | 05-29 14:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x0134…9054 | No | +516 | $428 | $428 | 3 | 06-18 18:20 |
| Wilted-Burden-Survivor 0xd8d5…8935 | No | +500 | $385 | $385 | 2 | 06-05 00:01 |
| Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | +496 | $337 | $1,860 | 11 | 06-18 21:23 |
| Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | +453 | $367 | $795 | 7 | 06-18 21:23 |
| Striped-Employ 0x5768…08fd | No | +340 | $255 | $255 | 1 | 05-28 07:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x8ae5…bf65 | No | +329 | $250 | $250 | 1 | 05-29 07:58 |
| United-Minor 0x8d8d…37d4 | Yes | +318 | $70 | $70 | 1 | 06-01 23:05 |
| Scarce-Footnote 0x714f…66d5 | No | +300 | $231 | $231 | 1 | 05-29 15:14 |
| Linear-Completion 0x9370…9e88 | No | +300 | $222 | $222 | 1 | 05-31 20:01 |
| Tan-Creativity 0xbdd0…550a | No | +264 | $209 | $209 | 28 | 06-17 15:03 |
| Jolly-Leader 0x0330…eb8f | No | +260 | $198 | $198 | 1 | 05-28 07:50 |
| Colorless-Patio 0xc5a6…995c | No | +257 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 05-30 11:24 |
| Weepy-Wild 0xf5e8…a1ce | No | +247 | $195 | $195 | 2 | 06-14 17:50 |
| Artistic-Tire 0xcd6b…68f5 | No | +239 | $172 | $172 | 1 | 05-28 07:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xb6ad…9378 | Yes | +226 | $45 | $45 | 3 | 06-12 09:08 |
| Unwelcome-Reserve 0x5651…66a6 | Yes | +217 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-01 14:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xd4f7…73bb | No | +200 | $154 | $154 | 4 | 06-13 09:53 |
| Euphoric-Flan 0x529d…6381 | No | +200 | $156 | $156 | 1 | 06-18 21:23 |
| Filthy-Shallot 0xd13c…02f4 | No | +200 | $150 | $150 | 1 | 05-28 07:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x9cf6…559d | No | +199 | $155 | $155 | 1 | 06-09 04:31 |
| Vital-Quality 0x6f64…32b3 | No | +184 | $145 | $145 | 1 | 06-07 09:14 |
| Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | +174 | $37 | $275 | 33 | 06-18 11:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xa6f1…2994 | Yes | +174 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 06-07 16:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xb38c…3f22 | Yes | +156 | $32 | $32 | 20 | 06-15 11:01 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +122 | $24 | $24 | 6 | 06-18 21:33 |
| Great-Barbeque 0x07e0…1db9 | Yes | +100 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 06-11 18:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xe10f…e0e5 | Yes | +95 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-13 09:53 |
| Wilted-Sonata 0x643f…6663 | Yes | +86 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-01 09:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x8619…7aa3 | Yes | +62 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 05-30 10:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xb15d…2851 | Yes | +48 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-14 04:25 |
| Solid-Mistake 0x5622…89ad | Yes | +45 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-30 21:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x502d…aea0 | Yes | +45 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-11 13:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b3f…0fa5 | Yes | +45 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-18 22:39 |
| Pretty-Daybed 0x88de…2f7e | Yes | +43 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-31 12:55 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 22:39:44 | (anonymous) 0x9b3f…0fa5 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 22¢ | $10 | 0x853945… |
| 06-18 22:39:44 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | BUY | 7 | 78¢ | $6 | 0x853945… |
| 06-18 22:39:44 | Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | No | BUY | 8 | 78¢ | $6 | 0x853945… |
| 06-18 22:39:44 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 22¢ | $7 | 0x853945… |
| 06-18 21:33:07 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 20¢ | $6 | 0x551c3c… |
| 06-18 21:33:07 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | Yes | BUY | 10 | 20¢ | $2 | 0x551c3c… |
| 06-18 21:33:07 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 13 | 80¢ | $10 | 0x551c3c… |
| 06-18 21:33:07 | Motionless-Shout 0x2df0…0a84 | No | BUY | 53 | 80¢ | $42 | 0x551c3c… |
| 06-18 21:28:55 | Motionless-Shout 0x2df0…0a84 | No | BUY | 52 | 80¢ | $42 | 0x31766e… |
| 06-18 21:28:55 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 2 | 81¢ | $2 | 0x31766e… |
| 06-18 21:28:55 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 20¢ | $6 | 0x31766e… |
| 06-18 21:24:17 | Guilty-Trail 0xae58…e5c5 | No | BUY | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x401920… |
| 06-18 21:24:17 | Grown-Billion 0x0da4…edde | No | SELL | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x401920… |
| 06-18 21:24:14 | Guilty-Trail 0xae58…e5c5 | No | BUY | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x7790b4… |
| 06-18 21:24:14 | Grown-Billion 0x0da4…edde | No | SELL | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x7790b4… |
| 06-18 21:24:02 | Grown-Billion 0x0da4…edde | No | SELL | 9 | 82¢ | $8 | 0x25c35c… |
| 06-18 21:24:02 | (anonymous) 0x89b8…f32d | No | BUY | 9 | 82¢ | $8 | 0x25c35c… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Euphoric-Flan 0x529d…6381 | No | BUY | 200 | 78¢ | $156 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | (anonymous) 0x0e19…3f79 | No | BUY | 1 | 82¢ | $1 | 0x9e5abd… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 115 | 79¢ | $91 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 20¢ | $2 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | (anonymous) 0x3d09…654f | Yes | BUY | 1,355 | 22¢ | $300 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Grown-Billion 0x0da4…edde | No | SELL | 1 | 82¢ | $1 | 0x9e5abd… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 20¢ | $2 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Ecstatic-Longitude 0xa579…aad0 | No | BUY | 222 | 77¢ | $171 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | BUY | 100 | 79¢ | $79 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | BUY | 101 | 77¢ | $78 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | BUY | 85 | 80¢ | $68 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Grown-Billion 0x0da4…edde | No | SELL | 1 | 82¢ | $1 | 0x7e0831… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | (anonymous) 0xb554…d502 | No | BUY | 1 | 82¢ | $1 | 0x7e0831… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | BUY | 306 | 77¢ | $236 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 21¢ | $1 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 21:23:59 | Plastic-Larder 0x355e…a038 | No | BUY | 100 | 78¢ | $78 | 0xb44102… |
| 06-18 18:20:50 | (anonymous) 0x0134…9054 | No | BUY | 208 | 82¢ | $171 | 0xdc6bbc… |
| 06-18 18:20:50 | Grown-Billion 0x0da4…edde | No | SELL | 208 | 82¢ | $171 | 0xdc6bbc… |
| 06-18 18:06:17 | (anonymous) 0x5a6b…77c9 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x205af2… |
| 06-18 18:06:17 | Grown-Billion 0x0da4…edde | No | SELL | 22 | 82¢ | $18 | 0x205af2… |
| 06-18 16:52:59 | Grown-Billion 0x0da4…edde | No | SELL | 8 | 82¢ | $6 | 0xcea58c… |
| 06-18 16:52:59 | (anonymous) 0x92aa…0341 | No | BUY | 8 | 82¢ | $6 | 0xcea58c… |
| 06-18 16:50:16 | (anonymous) 0x9100…9b51 | No | BUY | 89 | 82¢ | $73 | 0x1f05d8… |
| 06-18 16:50:16 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x1f05d8… |
| 06-18 16:50:16 | Grown-Billion 0x0da4…edde | No | SELL | 84 | 82¢ | $69 | 0x1f05d8… |
| 06-18 16:03:02 | Thorny-Carpeting 0xb3b2…da22 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 17¢ | $1 | 0x82975e… |
| 06-18 16:03:02 | (anonymous) 0x5a6b…77c9 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x82975e… |
| 06-18 16:03:02 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 17¢ | $0 | 0x82975e… |
| 06-18 15:43:13 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 10 | 83¢ | $8 | 0x602560… |
| 06-18 15:43:13 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0x602560… |
| 06-18 15:43:13 | (anonymous) 0x0134…9054 | No | BUY | 205 | 84¢ | $171 | 0x602560… |
| 06-18 15:43:13 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | SELL | 168 | 84¢ | $141 | 0x602560… |
| 06-18 15:43:13 | (anonymous) 0x5a6b…77c9 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x602560… |
| 06-18 15:37:55 | (anonymous) 0x5a6b…77c9 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0x4f9b35… |
| 06-18 15:37:55 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0x4f9b35… |
| 06-18 12:01:49 | (anonymous) 0x0134…9054 | No | BUY | 103 | 83¢ | $86 | 0x799112… |
| 06-18 12:01:49 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 6 | 82¢ | $5 | 0x799112… |
| 06-18 12:01:49 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 18¢ | $3 | 0x799112… |
| 06-18 12:01:49 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 83 | 83¢ | $69 | 0x799112… |
| 06-18 11:30:17 | Motionless-Shout 0x2df0…0a84 | No | BUY | 10 | 81¢ | $8 | 0x080560… |
| 06-18 11:30:17 | Villainous-Pug 0x86dd…1af2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 19¢ | $2 | 0x080560… |
| 06-18 11:21:43 | (anonymous) 0x75a2…6992 | Yes | BUY | 1,022 | 19¢ | $194 | 0xc205e3… |
| 06-18 11:21:43 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | BUY | 31 | 82¢ | $26 | 0xc205e3… |
| 06-18 11:21:43 | Deficient-Ark 0x730d…d448 | No | BUY | 949 | 81¢ | $768 | 0xc205e3… |
| 06-18 11:21:43 | Whimsical-Defender 0x3797…8be6 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xc205e3… |
| 06-18 11:21:43 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 19¢ | $5 | 0xc205e3… |
| 06-18 06:48:02 | Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | SELL | 19 | 82¢ | $16 | 0xe216da… |
| 06-18 06:48:02 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 18¢ | $3 | 0xe216da… |
| 06-18 06:48:02 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | BUY | 4 | 82¢ | $3 | 0xe216da… |
| 06-18 05:30:31 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | BUY | 1 | 82¢ | $1 | 0x6c7243… |
| 06-18 05:30:31 | Novel-Mouse 0x2782…a28a | No | SELL | 1 | 82¢ | $1 | 0x6c7243… |
| 06-18 02:25:29 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 1 | 83¢ | $1 | 0x8fa266… |
| 06-18 02:25:29 | Unsung-Fit 0x35f7…8058 | No | BUY | 1 | 83¢ | $1 | 0x8fa266… |
| 06-18 00:37:22 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | SELL | 5 | 83¢ | $4 | 0xd27c92… |
| 06-18 00:37:22 | Splendid-Progression 0xf13f…31cb | Yes | SELL | 28 | 17¢ | $5 | 0xd27c92… |
| 06-18 00:37:22 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 23 | 83¢ | $19 | 0xd27c92… |
| 06-17 23:18:53 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 201 | 18¢ | $36 | 0x9adc06… |
| 06-17 23:18:53 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | BUY | 594 | 82¢ | $487 | 0x9adc06… |
| 06-17 23:18:53 | Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | SELL | 795 | 82¢ | $652 | 0x9adc06… |
| 06-17 22:04:47 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 111 | 18¢ | $20 | 0xdb57a5… |
| 06-17 22:04:47 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | BUY | 2 | 82¢ | $2 | 0xdb57a5… |
| 06-17 22:04:47 | Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | SELL | 114 | 82¢ | $93 | 0xdb57a5… |
| 06-17 21:47:58 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | BUY | 3 | 82¢ | $2 | 0x5a4c45… |
| 06-17 21:47:58 | (anonymous) 0x9836…9e73 | No | SELL | 3 | 82¢ | $2 | 0x5a4c45… |
| 06-17 19:59:01 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | SELL | 275 | 83¢ | $228 | 0x319248… |
| 06-17 19:59:01 | Honest-Cufflink 0x40c2…b2fc | Yes | BUY | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x319248… |
| 06-17 19:59:01 | (anonymous) 0x45b4…e428 | Yes | SELL | 526 | 17¢ | $90 | 0x319248… |
| 06-17 19:59:01 | (anonymous) 0xccdf…b8a7 | No | SELL | 5 | 82¢ | $4 | 0x319248… |
| 06-17 19:59:01 | Fine-Tractor 0x2aaa…94e5 | No | SELL | 151 | 83¢ | $125 | 0x319248… |
| 06-17 19:59:01 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | SELL | 10 | 82¢ | $8 | 0x319248… |
| 06-17 17:37:02 | Fearful-Independence 0x8190…b247 | No | SELL | 51 | 81¢ | $42 | 0x9bf5da… |
| 06-17 17:37:02 | Deficient-Ark 0x730d…d448 | No | BUY | 51 | 81¢ | $42 | 0x9bf5da… |
| 06-17 15:03:40 | (anonymous) 0xc8a0…44a0 | No | SELL | 211 | 80¢ | $168 | 0x696980… |
| 06-17 15:03:40 | Tan-Creativity 0xbdd0…550a | No | BUY | 39 | 80¢ | $31 | 0x696980… |
| 06-17 15:03:40 | Limited-Graphic 0x5943…2ef2 | No | BUY | 172 | 80¢ | $138 | 0x696980… |
| 06-17 15:00:07 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | SELL | 1 | 80¢ | $1 | 0xdb2956… |
| 06-17 15:00:07 | Tan-Creativity 0xbdd0…550a | No | BUY | 1 | 80¢ | $1 | 0xdb2956… |
| 06-17 14:59:26 | (anonymous) 0xc8a0…44a0 | No | BUY | 211 | 81¢ | $171 | 0x973a40… |
| 06-17 14:59:26 | Raw-Steam 0x588c…1bf4 | No | SELL | 100 | 81¢ | $81 | 0x973a40… |
| 06-17 14:59:26 | Fearful-Independence 0x8190…b247 | No | SELL | 41 | 81¢ | $33 | 0x973a40… |
| 06-17 14:59:26 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | SELL | 70 | 81¢ | $57 | 0x973a40… |
| 06-17 14:54:59 | Tan-Creativity 0xbdd0…550a | No | BUY | 6 | 80¢ | $5 | 0x6cd7e0… |
| 06-17 14:54:59 | (anonymous) 0x2d01…b7ea | No | SELL | 6 | 80¢ | $5 | 0x6cd7e0… |