Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
open
Total volume
$141,638
$1,683 in 24h
Trades
2,014
Unique wallets
339
Liquidity
$28,184
Latest YES mid
10¢
Latest NO mid
90¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-09 22:29
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-13.0¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $26.2K
vs crowd: 14% YES on $86.0K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 30 | $902 | $23.4K | $22.5K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 47 | $650 | $37.1K | $36.5K |
| 🐟 Fish | 79 | $8.2K | $7.8K | +$325 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 183 | $2.4K | $5.6K | $3.2K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 9 | $285 | $25.9K | $25.6K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 21 | $6.4K | $8.1K | $1.7K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 16 | $108 | $1.2K | $1.1K |
| Median | 29 | $81 | $1.4K | $1.3K |
| Below median | 69 | $251 | $2.0K | $1.7K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 16 | $152 | $1.1K | $910 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 27 | $269 | $7.2K | $6.9K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 18 | $785 | $13.4K | $12.6K |
| unranked | 134 | $3.8K | $13.7K | $9.9K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bronze-Hostess 0xda2d…1cee | Yes | +24,637 | $6,216 | $6,216 | 52 | 06-04 10:55 |
| Stable-Fog 0x1de9…831d | No | +22,903 | $20,000 | $20,000 | 7 | 07-07 10:38 |
| Blaring-Surge 0xcb89…a2e8 | No | +9,611 | $8,247 | $8,247 | 40 | 07-07 14:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x75a2…6992 | Yes | +7,500 | $1,152 | $1,152 | 13 | 07-07 10:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x15d2…bc1a | Yes | +4,285 | $489 | $489 | 2 | 07-07 14:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x8d7c…5968 | No | +3,662 | $3,150 | $3,150 | 1 | 06-21 07:22 |
| Faraway-Hardcover 0x8c57…f939 | No | +2,814 | $2,250 | $2,250 | 1 | 06-11 17:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x3d09…654f | Yes | +2,330 | $513 | $513 | 3 | 06-21 20:28 |
| Dead-Lava 0x629b…995a | No | +2,110 | $1,627 | $1,627 | 3 | 07-05 12:02 |
| Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4 | Yes | +2,029 | $460 | $460 | 1 | 06-02 17:48 |
| Determined-Gear 0x9f08…73a8 | Yes | +2,000 | $280 | $280 | 2 | 06-21 07:22 |
| Monopoly_Money 0x7ea7…79ac | No | +1,749 | $1,337 | $1,337 | 4 | 06-04 10:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8ff…c93b | No | +1,728 | $1,444 | $1,444 | 6 | 06-26 05:49 |
| Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | No | +1,439 | $1,040 | $1,483 | 13 | 07-08 02:45 |
| Shallow-Polyp 0x39b0…07d1 | Yes | +1,020 | $245 | $245 | 25 | 05-29 11:33 |
| Elegant-Unique 0x9879…5e70 | No | +1,018 | $799 | $799 | 6 | 05-30 17:44 |
| Deficient-Ark 0x730d…d448 | No | +1,000 | $810 | $810 | 2 | 06-18 11:21 |
| Liquid-Comment 0x8fe7…4f20 | Yes | +979 | $245 | $245 | 1 | 05-29 11:00 |
| Great-Barbeque 0x07e0…1db9 | Yes | +908 | $148 | $148 | 16 | 06-24 14:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xbeb9…aea6 | Yes | +800 | $104 | $104 | 2 | 06-24 14:58 |
| Weird-Freedom 0xeca0…e8f8 | No | +750 | $606 | $606 | 2 | 06-12 09:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x7d56…0ba5 | Yes | +650 | $110 | $110 | 2 | 06-22 15:09 |
| Unaware-Jackal 0x8964…0bec | No | +640 | $556 | $556 | 17 | 07-06 20:46 |
| Indolent-Entry 0xf1a5…3dc3 | Yes | +600 | $150 | $150 | 1 | 05-29 14:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x0134…9054 | No | +516 | $428 | $428 | 3 | 06-18 18:20 |
| Linear-Completion 0x9370…9e88 | No | +500 | $377 | $917 | 3 | 07-05 12:02 |
| Poor-Menopause 0xc781…59d7 | No | +500 | $415 | $415 | 4 | 06-25 21:01 |
| Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | +402 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 07-07 12:00 |
| Sardonic-Archer 0xc9ad…79d0 | No | +400 | $356 | $356 | 1 | 07-06 07:49 |
| Limited-Graphic 0x5943…2ef2 | No | +390 | $310 | $310 | 5 | 06-21 20:28 |
| Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | No | +365 | $302 | $302 | 4 | 06-22 15:18 |
| Striped-Employ 0x5768…08fd | No | +340 | $255 | $255 | 1 | 05-28 07:50 |
| Tan-Creativity 0xbdd0…550a | No | +334 | $267 | $267 | 29 | 06-22 15:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x8ae5…bf65 | No | +329 | $250 | $250 | 1 | 05-29 07:58 |
| Honest-Cufflink 0x40c2…b2fc | Yes | +310 | $34 | $58 | 22 | 07-07 12:00 |
| Scarce-Footnote 0x714f…66d5 | No | +300 | $231 | $231 | 1 | 05-29 15:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xd4f7…73bb | No | +300 | $237 | $237 | 13 | 06-30 09:23 |
| Jolly-Leader 0x0330…eb8f | No | +260 | $198 | $198 | 1 | 05-28 07:50 |
| General-Councilman 0xacea…8b97 | No | +254 | $-490 | $11,883 | 28 | 07-01 02:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xb6ad…9378 | Yes | +226 | $45 | $45 | 3 | 06-12 09:08 |
| Teeming-Min 0x198a…3ca3 | No | +200 | $174 | $174 | 2 | 07-05 16:11 |
| Filthy-Shallot 0xd13c…02f4 | No | +200 | $150 | $150 | 1 | 05-28 07:57 |
| Euphoric-Flan 0x529d…6381 | No | +200 | $156 | $156 | 1 | 06-18 21:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x9cf6…559d | No | +199 | $155 | $155 | 1 | 06-09 04:31 |
| Wonderful-Volatility 0x0739…aba8 | No | +186 | $153 | $185 | 3 | 07-07 12:00 |
| Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | +174 | $28 | $622 | 133 | 07-07 14:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xa6f1…2994 | Yes | +174 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 06-07 16:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xb38c…3f22 | Yes | +156 | $32 | $32 | 20 | 06-15 11:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xb15d…2851 | Yes | +148 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 07-07 15:41 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +122 | $24 | $24 | 6 | 06-18 21:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xd29b…d17d | Yes | +115 | $17 | $17 | 3 | 07-06 20:11 |
| Dry-Thermals-Spur 0xa60b…7a4f | Yes | +101 | $61 | $1,029 | 45 | 07-01 02:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xb146…c098 | Yes | +96 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 06-28 23:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x393d…8fae | Yes | +95 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-07 10:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x8619…7aa3 | Yes | +62 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 05-30 10:48 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 22:29:23 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | SELL | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0x82a879… |
| 07-09 22:29:23 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | SELL | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0x97259e… |
| 07-09 22:29:23 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | SELL | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0xa816a1… |
| 07-09 22:29:23 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | SELL | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0xd8fde7… |
| 07-09 22:29:23 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0xd8fde7… |
| 07-09 22:29:23 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0x82a879… |
| 07-09 22:29:23 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0x97259e… |
| 07-09 22:29:23 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0xa816a1… |
| 07-09 22:28:56 | (anonymous) 0x2bf3…ae28 | No | SELL | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0xffc46c… |
| 07-09 22:28:56 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0xffc46c… |
| 07-09 22:28:41 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xc994b5… |
| 07-09 22:28:41 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x05d337… |
| 07-09 22:28:41 | (anonymous) 0x39b2…157c | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x05d337… |
| 07-09 22:28:41 | (anonymous) 0x1241…d325 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xc994b5… |
| 07-09 22:28:40 | (anonymous) 0x75c5…870f | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x8441c4… |
| 07-09 22:28:40 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xa6fbf3… |
| 07-09 22:28:40 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x8441c4… |
| 07-09 22:28:40 | (anonymous) 0xdc7d…b552 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xa6fbf3… |
| 07-09 22:28:38 | (anonymous) 0x5923…49cd | No | SELL | 5 | 90¢ | $5 | 0x72031f… |
| 07-09 22:28:38 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | BUY | 5 | 90¢ | $5 | 0x72031f… |
| 07-09 22:28:08 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0xcd31b9… |
| 07-09 22:28:08 | Jubilant-Direction 0x7c83…d800 | No | SELL | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0xcd31b9… |
| 07-09 22:28:02 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | SELL | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0x2f62ea… |
| 07-09 22:28:02 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0x2f62ea… |
| 07-09 22:28:01 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 2 | 89¢ | $1 | 0x727045… |
| 07-09 22:28:01 | (anonymous) 0x2bf3…ae28 | No | SELL | 2 | 89¢ | $1 | 0x727045… |
| 07-09 22:27:49 | (anonymous) 0xb554…d502 | No | SELL | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0x220725… |
| 07-09 22:27:49 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0x220725… |
| 07-09 22:27:47 | Dependent-Millimeter 0x9b22…3a92 | No | SELL | 8 | 90¢ | $8 | 0x8ac5d7… |
| 07-09 22:27:47 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0xfec93d… |
| 07-09 22:27:47 | Untrue-Croup 0xdf6c…eb44 | No | SELL | 300 | 90¢ | $270 | 0x8ac5d7… |
| 07-09 22:27:47 | (anonymous) 0x0e19…3f79 | No | SELL | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0xfec93d… |
| 07-09 22:27:47 | United-Minor 0x8d8d…37d4 | Yes | SELL | 510 | 10¢ | $49 | 0x8ac5d7… |
| 07-09 22:27:47 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | SELL | 202 | 91¢ | $184 | 0x8ac5d7… |
| 07-08 06:42:58 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | SELL | 1 | 89¢ | $0 | 0x5f2b38… |
| 07-08 06:42:58 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 1 | 89¢ | $0 | 0x5f2b38… |
| 07-08 06:42:32 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0x57d5bc… |
| 07-08 06:42:32 | (anonymous) 0x2bf3…ae28 | No | SELL | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0x80f8a6… |
| 07-08 06:42:32 | (anonymous) 0x95e8…81ef | No | SELL | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0x57d5bc… |
| 07-08 06:42:32 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 0 | 89¢ | $0 | 0x80f8a6… |
| 07-08 06:42:19 | Golden-Chivalry 0x2762…2cf6 | No | BUY | 3 | 89¢ | $2 | 0xd466c4… |
| 07-08 06:42:19 | (anonymous) 0x1241…d325 | No | SELL | 3 | 89¢ | $3 | 0xd466c4… |
| 07-08 06:42:19 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 1 | 90¢ | $1 | 0xd466c4… |
| 07-08 06:42:16 | Linear-Leaver 0x2811…6818 | No | BUY | 33 | 91¢ | $30 | 0x51ca13… |
| 07-08 06:42:16 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 14 | 91¢ | $13 | 0x51ca13… |
| 07-08 06:42:16 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | SELL | 19 | 91¢ | $17 | 0x51ca13… |
| 07-08 02:45:32 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x605641… |
| 07-08 02:45:32 | (anonymous) 0x1241…d325 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x605641… |
| 07-08 02:45:31 | (anonymous) 0x2bf3…ae28 | No | BUY | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0x46ef05… |
| 07-08 02:45:31 | (anonymous) 0x95e8…81ef | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xc25904… |
| 07-08 02:45:31 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0x46ef05… |
| 07-08 02:45:31 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xc25904… |
| 07-08 02:45:28 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 4 | 90¢ | $4 | 0x6628a1… |
| 07-08 02:45:28 | Our-Dough 0x38e5…95e7 | No | SELL | 53 | 90¢ | $48 | 0x6628a1… |
| 07-08 02:45:28 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | BUY | 49 | 90¢ | $44 | 0x6628a1… |
| 07-08 01:42:49 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x0aa1d1… |
| 07-08 01:42:49 | (anonymous) 0x1241…d325 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x0aa1d1… |
| 07-08 01:42:46 | Well-Worn-Loss 0xdaf0…9ff3 | No | SELL | 3 | 90¢ | $3 | 0xb7422e… |
| 07-08 01:42:46 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | BUY | 3 | 90¢ | $3 | 0xb7422e… |
| 07-08 00:51:16 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 6 | 91¢ | $6 | 0x19636e… |
| 07-08 00:51:16 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 12 | 91¢ | $11 | 0x19636e… |
| 07-08 00:51:16 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | BUY | 18 | 91¢ | $17 | 0x19636e… |
| 07-08 00:50:59 | (anonymous) 0x5923…49cd | No | BUY | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0x02cb92… |
| 07-08 00:50:59 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0x02cb92… |
| 07-08 00:50:58 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x986c27… |
| 07-08 00:50:58 | (anonymous) 0x1241…d325 | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x986c27… |
| 07-08 00:50:55 | (anonymous) 0xf040…d11f | No | BUY | 6 | 91¢ | $5 | 0xeabbb2… |
| 07-08 00:50:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 6 | 91¢ | $5 | 0xeabbb2… |
| 07-08 00:50:55 | Dull-Universe 0x1f0a…f7aa | No | BUY | 369 | 90¢ | $332 | 0xcaa813… |
| 07-08 00:50:55 | (anonymous) 0x616f…a17b | No | SELL | 369 | 90¢ | $332 | 0xcaa813… |
| 07-07 15:41:41 | (anonymous) 0xb15d…2851 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 10¢ | $10 | 0xee74ca… |
| 07-07 15:41:41 | Unsung-Climb 0xcf37…993f | No | BUY | 100 | 90¢ | $90 | 0xee74ca… |
| 07-07 14:43:13 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 33 | 90¢ | $30 | 0x497252… |
| 07-07 14:43:13 | Unsung-Climb 0xcf37…993f | Yes | SELL | 299 | 9¢ | $27 | 0x497252… |
| 07-07 14:43:13 | Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 10¢ | $10 | 0x497252… |
| 07-07 14:43:13 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | SELL | 90 | 9¢ | $8 | 0x497252… |
| 07-07 14:43:13 | (anonymous) 0x15d2…bc1a | Yes | BUY | 2,475 | 9¢ | $224 | 0x497252… |
| 07-07 14:43:13 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 903 | 9¢ | $81 | 0x497252… |
| 07-07 14:43:13 | Blaring-Surge 0xcb89…a2e8 | No | BUY | 1,000 | 91¢ | $910 | 0x497252… |
| 07-07 14:43:13 | (anonymous) 0xd43f…c66b | No | BUY | 5 | 90¢ | $4 | 0x497252… |
| 07-07 14:43:13 | (anonymous) 0x82ae…2890 | No | BUY | 45 | 91¢ | $41 | 0x497252… |
| 07-07 13:47:02 | (anonymous) 0x5923…49cd | No | SELL | 10 | 91¢ | $9 | 0x6ee1af… |
| 07-07 13:47:02 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x6ee1af… |
| 07-07 12:04:11 | Well-Worn-Loss 0xdaf0…9ff3 | No | SELL | 27 | 91¢ | $25 | 0xe45da2… |
| 07-07 12:04:11 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 15 | 91¢ | $14 | 0xe45da2… |
| 07-07 12:04:11 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | BUY | 12 | 91¢ | $11 | 0xe45da2… |
| 07-07 12:01:40 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 10¢ | $0 | 0x37dfda… |
| 07-07 12:01:40 | Spherical-Fringe 0x04b3…1b7e | No | SELL | 1 | 90¢ | $1 | 0x37dfda… |
| 07-07 12:01:38 | Legitimate-Rebellion 0xc109…450b | No | SELL | 16 | 92¢ | $15 | 0x570d18… |
| 07-07 12:01:38 | Artistic-Tire 0xcd6b…68f5 | No | SELL | 1,857 | 94¢ | $1,745 | 0x570d18… |
| 07-07 12:01:38 | Unsung-Climb 0xcf37…993f | Yes | BUY | 299 | 7¢ | $21 | 0x570d18… |
| 07-07 12:01:38 | Unwelcome-Reserve 0x5651…66a6 | Yes | SELL | 2,274 | 6¢ | $141 | 0x570d18… |
| 07-07 12:01:38 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 8 | 92¢ | $7 | 0x570d18… |
| 07-07 12:01:38 | Dependent-Millimeter 0x9b22…3a92 | No | SELL | 7 | 93¢ | $7 | 0x570d18… |
| 07-07 12:01:38 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | BUY | 23 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x570d18… |
| 07-07 12:01:20 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x479557… |
| 07-07 12:01:20 | Wordy-Bark 0xe762…064b | No | SELL | 13 | 90¢ | $11 | 0x479557… |
| 07-07 12:01:19 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x0e9ee6… |
| 07-07 12:01:19 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 10¢ | $1 | 0x3c2fd5… |
| 07-07 12:01:19 | Wordy-Bark 0xe762…064b | No | SELL | 13 | 90¢ | $12 | 0x0e9ee6… |