Outstanding-Change — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$747

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

14.3%

Resolved

Trades

39,849

lifetime

Volume

$2.22M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 08-10 11:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Politics

43% 33% $-177

Other

37% 18% $-420

Sports

11% 17% $-150

Crypto

8% — —

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 146 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	367	$35.9K	33,654	32,435	+1,219	open	—	04-01 00:47
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	622	$33.4K	28,795	28,755	+39	open	—	03-30 09:34
will the us invade iran by march 31	438	$28.9K	26,417	26,076	+341	open	—	03-30 06:19
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	541	$28.3K	27,620	27,220	+400	open	—	03-08 17:34
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	331	$24.1K	21,912	21,712	+200	open	—	03-29 20:19
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	473	$22.7K	21,783	21,382	+400	open	—	03-28 22:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	261	$22.1K	19,783	19,783	+0	open	—	04-05 10:38
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	264	$21.1K	15,033	15,233	-200	open	—	03-31 01:38
will uae strike iran by march 31	247	$19.9K	14,565	14,642	-76	open	—	03-30 22:36
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	231	$17.9K	11,709	11,699	+10	open	—	03-31 11:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	143	$17.6K	11,780	11,780	+0	open	—	04-23 17:47
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	278	$17.1K	15,945	15,945	+0	open	—	04-17 04:00
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	202	$16.9K	12,044	11,869	+176	open	—	03-19 20:38
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	227	$16.6K	11,993	11,793	+200	open	—	03-28 23:23
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	227	$15.1K	8,968	8,968	+0	open	—	03-08 20:35
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	191	$14.7K	10,588	10,788	-200	open	—	03-08 19:34
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	185	$14.2K	9,994	9,922	+72	open	—	03-08 13:50
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	196	$13.9K	12,891	12,891	+0	open	—	03-21 19:24
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	351	$13.7K	13,809	13,545	+264	open	—	03-30 07:19
Iran leadership change by April 30?	195	$13.5K	10,772	10,772	+0	open	—	04-07 13:49
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	326	$13.1K	10,319	10,317	+1	open	—	03-30 15:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	231	$12.6K	10,994	10,794	+200	open	—	04-06 02:41
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	202	$12.4K	11,496	11,377	+119	open	—	04-16 15:17
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	141	$12.3K	7,653	7,653	+0	open	—	04-07 08:19
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	258	$11.7K	10,876	10,776	+100	open	—	04-16 19:38
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	184	$11.6K	9,394	9,449	-55	open	—	04-15 23:50
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	230	$11.2K	10,696	10,596	+100	open	—	04-17 09:32
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	122	$11.1K	7,088	6,944	+144	open	—	02-27 20:20
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	62	$10.8K	6,126	6,126	+0	open	—	04-15 06:02
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	246	$10.8K	10,354	10,345	+9	open	—	04-03 20:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 13:02:51	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0xe13348…
08-10 13:02:49	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x635fca…
08-10 13:02:28	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x20d537…
08-10 11:59:36	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	SELL	162	20¢	$32	0x9b47ea…
08-10 11:35:07	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	SELL	36	17¢	$6	0x65992b…
08-10 11:19:27	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0x19c2d9…
08-10 11:15:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	SELL	44	96¢	$43	0xc13f41…
08-10 11:13:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	SELL	115	96¢	$111	0xcd1c9f…
08-10 11:01:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	SELL	34	96¢	$32	0xd58412…
08-10 09:35:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x3f11ab…
08-10 09:34:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x373080…
08-10 08:36:13	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026	Yes	SELL	298	43¢	$128	0x56da9c…
08-10 08:06:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	SELL	200	12¢	$24	0x1e2e26…
08-10 07:04:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	Yes	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0xc1f06c…
08-10 07:03:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x2457e9…
08-10 07:03:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xf658af…
08-10 05:49:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	142	83¢	$118	0x68a2b5…
08-10 05:31:04	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	13¢	$10	0xa27d4f…
08-10 05:12:34	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	13¢	$10	0xa3aabc…
08-10 04:51:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xe71f48…
08-10 04:32:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0xf2279a…
08-10 03:51:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xd69f50…
08-10 03:42:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x1f9f75…
08-10 03:18:16	will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x401dc1…
08-10 03:13:45	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0xe31968…
08-10 03:13:43	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026	Yes	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0xf66321…
08-10 03:13:42	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026	Yes	BUY	48	51¢	$24	0xc62804…
08-10 02:42:06	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0x451c5e…
08-10 01:14:04	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	51	54¢	$28	0x0f9f97…
08-10 00:49:06	will rio ferdinand attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806201203759	Yes	SELL	14	23¢	$3	0xbdad29…
08-10 00:45:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	Yes	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0xd29cf8…
08-10 00:43:09	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	99	5¢	$5	0x1f487c…
08-10 00:42:52	gemini 4pt0 released by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0xbd4b1d…
08-10 00:39:07	will rio ferdinand attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806201203759	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x6e658e…
08-10 00:19:09	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 31	No	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0x0d1faf…
08-10 00:18:54	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 31	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0xc08d53…
08-10 00:07:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454	Yes	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x2ffd21…
08-10 00:06:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x976e06…
08-09 23:50:33	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	28¢	$56	0x305377…
08-09 23:41:51	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0x3bb9aa…
08-09 22:02:43	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	BUY	101	54¢	$55	0x06b6f9…
08-09 21:09:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x3689d0…
08-09 19:55:34	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	No	SELL	200	71¢	$142	0x105254…
08-09 18:07:13	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	54	18¢	$10	0x84c22a…
08-09 16:04:36	will the gta 6 extended look be at least 10 minutes long 20260807064756492	No	SELL	2	10¢	$0	0x3bd4be…
08-09 13:39:16	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x5df9d4…
08-09 13:30:25	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x4b51dd…
08-09 13:26:03	gemini 4pt0 released by september 30 2026	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x56074b…
08-09 13:10:52	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	32	20¢	$6	0xe412f3…
08-09 13:09:28	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	100	19¢	$19	0x15d4e1…
08-09 13:08:57	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	200	19¢	$38	0x0a956c…
08-09 12:43:55	will rio ferdinand attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806201203759	Yes	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x994fce…
08-09 12:39:42	will rio ferdinand attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806201203759	Yes	SELL	6	26¢	$2	0xe7213c…
08-09 12:29:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	SELL	111	67¢	$74	0xc96fae…
08-09 12:29:21	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	SELL	89	67¢	$60	0x3f72b0…
08-09 11:51:54	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	121	3¢	$4	0xad0c1b…
08-09 11:04:48	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x681703…
08-09 10:54:12	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	17	3¢	$1	0xf3dc3b…
08-09 10:54:12	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	62	3¢	$2	0x78ce73…
08-09 10:41:33	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0x4c7583…
08-09 09:20:21	will diogo dalot attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000827858	Yes	SELL	30	16¢	$5	0xca1ee7…
08-09 09:20:21	will diogo dalot attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260807000827858	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x01c027…
08-09 07:33:43	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	Yes	SELL	145	45¢	$65	0x4b234a…
08-09 07:06:00	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xfa59ed…
08-09 07:06:00	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	Yes	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x5b6889…
08-09 05:30:16	will rio ferdinand attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806201203759	Yes	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0x3fb905…
08-09 03:22:40	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 31	Yes	SELL	34	17¢	$6	0x97035f…
08-09 02:52:42	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 31	Yes	SELL	34	17¢	$6	0xc3c02b…
08-09 02:52:15	jeanine pirro out as dc us attorney by august 31	Yes	BUY	68	17¢	$12	0xf4a2e8…
08-09 02:22:46	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	SELL	200	72¢	$144	0x9c36ca…
08-09 00:07:36	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x2562bd…
08-08 22:57:15	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x4aabf3…
08-08 22:42:09	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	85	31¢	$26	0x93be5e…
08-08 22:35:27	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	Yes	BUY	200	17¢	$34	0xb089bc…
08-08 22:27:54	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$7	0xe207d6…
08-08 21:20:15	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0xf0da42…
08-08 21:20:15	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0xa4d3bc…
08-08 21:20:13	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xdcb0d9…
08-08 21:20:13	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x219ef7…
08-08 21:20:12	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x1fbd2f…
08-08 21:19:51	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0xaa4dcd…
08-08 21:18:51	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x9c4777…
08-08 21:17:40	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0xa9e725…
08-08 21:17:40	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x093b54…
08-08 21:17:15	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0xac83eb…
08-08 21:17:07	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x087eef…
08-08 21:16:39	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0xffb16b…
08-08 21:16:07	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x862cc7…
08-08 21:15:34	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0xa6f3ac…
08-08 21:02:39	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0xb0c1b3…
08-08 21:02:37	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x61f32a…
08-08 21:02:37	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x02c464…
08-08 21:02:36	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xeac898…
08-08 21:02:36	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	34¢	$3	0x1fb884…
08-08 20:31:46	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	Yes	BUY	200	57¢	$115	0xeae477…
08-08 20:13:37	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x6273ee…
08-08 20:02:04	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x1e10e6…
08-08 20:01:09	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xed0c72…
08-08 19:40:27	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x1689b2…
08-08 19:39:15	Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x4d30c6…