Wilted-Burden-Survivor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.37K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.1%

Resolved

Trades

18,645

lifetime

Volume

$4.30M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$231

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-01

last 08-10 05:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Other

51% 83% $-360

Politics

39% 57% $-1,009

Crypto

5% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 389 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	385	$270.1K	139,789	137,789	+2,000	open	—	04-26 19:00
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	159	$155.6K	90,500	70,500	+20,000	open	—	04-21 21:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	240	$113.5K	87,003	72,115	+14,888	open	—	06-03 16:23
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	127	$80.8K	42,178	40,000	+2,179	open	—	04-26 19:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	224	$66.2K	59,953	22,847	+37,107	open	—	04-08 14:40
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	36	$60.1K	57,200	5,200	+52,000	open	—	04-07 22:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	174	$54.0K	34,274	33,248	+1,025	open	—	04-30 19:58
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	71	$53.1K	26,920	27,586	-666	open	—	05-21 03:27
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	104	$47.4K	28,973	24,301	+4,671	open	—	04-30 14:38
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	205	$44.5K	41,764	13,914	+27,850	open	—	04-30 20:19
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	26	$39.9K	35,000	5,000	+30,000	open	—	06-06 00:21
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	52	$37.9K	25,562	15,562	+10,000	open	—	06-19 00:44
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	74	$36.5K	17,588	20,088	-2,500	open	—	06-19 19:32
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	87	$35.9K	33,748	6,276	+27,472	open	—	07-09 15:25
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	114	$35.7K	21,221	21,312	-92	open	—	05-29 15:00
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026?	59	$35.3K	35,474	100	+35,374	open	—	04-13 23:05
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	67	$33.5K	17,216	17,216	+0	open	—	07-27 16:30
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	125	$31.8K	18,156	15,594	+2,563	open	—	08-07 19:30
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	44	$31.2K	16,024	16,024	+0	open	—	05-21 03:22
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	52	$30.9K	15,617	18,500	-2,883	open	—	07-31 21:38
will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	43	$30.5K	15,822	15,822	+0	open	—	08-02 07:47
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	112	$30.4K	25,258	15,710	+9,548	open	—	08-05 13:03
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	33	$30.1K	17,310	13,310	+4,000	open	—	07-23 19:52
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	28	$29.1K	19,379	11,209	+8,170	open	—	04-30 14:50
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	188	$28.2K	15,048	15,442	-394	open	—	07-18 03:44
will wti reach 130 in july 2026	58	$26.1K	12,763	13,631	-868	open	—	07-25 10:05
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	39	$25.3K	13,500	12,500	+1,000	open	—	05-25 16:59
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	217	$25.0K	12,797	12,797	-0	open	—	06-11 10:53
iran closes its airspace by june 8	75	$24.9K	14,876	14,876	+0	open	—	06-11 20:55
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	50	$24.9K	15,900	15,900	+0	open	—	04-21 17:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 07:10:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0x7985e9…
08-10 05:22:19	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xeb5f1d…
08-10 04:44:04	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	46¢	$17	0xac14f7…
08-10 04:10:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xe4121d…
08-10 04:03:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	23	93¢	$22	0xe9c69e…
08-10 03:19:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x63ac49…
08-10 00:23:01	russia elections yabloko clears duma threshold	No	BUY	300	95¢	$286	0xd01a46…
08-10 00:05:46	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	300	88¢	$264	0xac633f…
08-09 23:42:45	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	300	89¢	$267	0xa2b472…
08-09 23:41:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	182	97¢	$176	0x0e73fe…
08-09 23:21:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	No	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0xf35944…
08-09 23:12:03	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	118	97¢	$114	0x7a5edf…
08-09 21:34:06	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	BUY	214	24¢	$51	0x2223e2…
08-09 21:10:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	BUY	33	88¢	$29	0xa1a386…
08-09 21:09:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x08a385…
08-09 21:09:24	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	BUY	255	88¢	$224	0x415666…
08-09 21:09:12	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	BUY	116	88¢	$102	0x8317a8…
08-09 21:09:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	BUY	300	88¢	$264	0x80d435…
08-09 21:09:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0x3689d0…
08-09 21:09:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	No	BUY	168	88¢	$148	0x015eb7…
08-09 20:38:01	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	BUY	74	24¢	$18	0x6d3780…
08-09 19:59:57	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x99dbd2…
08-09 19:58:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	131	1¢	$2	0x9b7238…
08-09 19:47:46	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	Yes	BUY	184	81¢	$149	0x0d2ef8…
08-09 19:43:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x485e7f…
08-09 19:41:36	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	Yes	BUY	0	81¢	$0	0x6c4ace…
08-09 19:24:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	62	1¢	$1	0x0f2b0d…
08-09 19:19:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xe5cfb2…
08-09 19:17:21	will wti dip to 75 in august 2026 from august 6	Yes	BUY	116	81¢	$94	0x601899…
08-09 18:54:01	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	300	98¢	$293	0x2a9fec…
08-09 18:30:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	500	7¢	$35	0x9e99be…
08-09 18:28:18	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	154	89¢	$137	0xb7e39e…
08-09 18:08:51	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x637a4e…
08-09 18:08:51	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x2ce2c0…
08-09 18:08:51	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x069bc2…
08-09 14:13:13	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	305	61¢	$186	0x815ac0…
08-09 14:03:31	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	No	SELL	13	65¢	$9	0x23ab2c…
08-09 14:03:28	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	No	SELL	57	65¢	$37	0x241e37…
08-09 13:21:40	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0x339de0…
08-09 12:56:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	300	94¢	$282	0xc9e94c…
08-09 11:00:48	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	13	81¢	$11	0x27991d…
08-09 11:00:09	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	16	81¢	$13	0x25df65…
08-09 10:59:28	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	86	94¢	$81	0x7f4253…
08-09 10:49:12	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xcd569e…
08-09 10:49:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	74	94¢	$70	0x92adc8…
08-09 10:49:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x55183b…
08-09 09:41:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	118	29¢	$34	0x19a2d6…
08-09 09:38:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	120	29¢	$35	0x765c21…
08-09 09:25:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xf040de…
08-09 09:25:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xdd61a7…
08-09 09:23:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	29	29¢	$8	0x5097a6…
08-09 09:22:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0x158000…
08-09 09:22:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xd7001a…
08-09 08:00:07	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	999	99¢	$989	0x2f8f7e…
08-09 06:53:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 11 20260807213124700	No	BUY	300	98¢	$294	0x3201cc…
08-09 06:49:45	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x47f2f6…
08-09 06:35:18	will max miller drop out of the oh 07 race by august 30 20260806192928808	No	BUY	300	95¢	$286	0x380633…
08-09 05:51:28	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$996	0xf80b60…
08-09 05:49:22	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x526f3e…
08-09 05:44:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	800	83¢	$664	0x8817ef…
08-09 05:42:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	300	95¢	$285	0xbd492b…
08-09 05:35:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	329	94¢	$311	0x3458a1…
08-09 05:33:40	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0xb9a3bc…
08-09 05:33:40	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0x087244…
08-09 05:09:01	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0xec88c8…
08-09 03:08:13	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	88	61¢	$53	0xa0c656…
08-09 03:03:21	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$990	0x5b75e4…
08-09 02:19:01	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$976	0x39248f…
08-09 02:18:55	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	1,000	98¢	$985	0xf0035d…
08-09 00:04:19	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	No	BUY	300	98¢	$293	0xd6d3d2…
08-08 21:46:36	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	300	97¢	$290	0x3eba81…
08-08 21:39:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	364	94¢	$342	0x0e948c…
08-08 21:39:24	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	36	94¢	$34	0x0c3eec…
08-08 21:39:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	300	95¢	$285	0xcd29f0…
08-08 21:08:07	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	204	80¢	$163	0xf9d1a7…
08-08 19:52:09	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	300	99¢	$296	0x7e52f3…
08-08 19:29:45	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0xecdd6f…
08-08 18:35:01	will marcelo attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630259	No	SELL	32	77¢	$25	0xc88fc5…
08-08 18:34:21	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x6e73b1…
08-08 18:31:43	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0xa4a157…
08-08 18:22:45	will marcelo attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630259	No	SELL	32	77¢	$25	0x023f33…
08-08 18:19:25	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0xfe73eb…
08-08 18:19:04	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x33bd61…
08-08 18:15:28	will marcelo attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630259	No	SELL	115	77¢	$89	0x1dc0d8…
08-08 18:13:21	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	86	77¢	$66	0x519f6f…
08-08 18:09:04	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$4	0x39fb0e…
08-08 18:00:28	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	15	77¢	$12	0x3cb912…
08-08 17:58:57	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xa344d0…
08-08 17:56:55	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0xc25d3b…
08-08 17:43:40	will m0nesy attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260805173412154	No	BUY	138	97¢	$134	0x4b1c2f…
08-08 17:43:39	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	119	77¢	$92	0xf0274c…
08-08 17:32:37	will m0nesy attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260805173412154	No	BUY	700	98¢	$682	0x3c22f4…
08-08 17:22:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x154f82…
08-08 17:21:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	180	17¢	$31	0xcc09fa…
08-08 17:13:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 8 2026	No	BUY	500	98¢	$488	0x17facf…
08-08 17:07:39	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	1,201	83¢	$997	0x2cea56…
08-08 17:04:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	200	26¢	$52	0xba026a…
08-08 15:38:25	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	67¢	$201	0x62afc0…
08-08 12:56:27	will m0nesy attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260805173412154	No	BUY	219	97¢	$213	0x7b5b7c…
08-08 08:21:25	will m0nesy attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260805173412154	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x0bf6b0…