Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$36,033
$28 in 24h
Trades
671
Unique wallets
191
Liquidity
$56,705
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-22 12:47
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+45.0¢
(top1%: 55% YES on $420
vs crowd: 10% YES on $21.0K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 10 | — | $1.4K | $1.4K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 19 | $645 | $4.2K | $3.5K |
| 🐟 Fish | 96 | $273 | $12.0K | $11.8K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 66 | $1.1K | $1.4K | $307 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 5 | $229 | $191 | +$38 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 8 | $415 | $1.8K | $1.4K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $1 | $26 | $25 |
| Median | 23 | $86 | $1.1K | $1.0K |
| Below median | 100 | $46 | $4.7K | $4.7K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | — | $93 | $93 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | — | $3.0K | $3.0K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | — | $1.5K | $1.5K |
| unranked | 43 | $1.2K | $6.6K | $5.4K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jittery-Crayfish 0x56ff…96ba | Yes | +7,380 | $446 | $758 | 12 | 06-20 03:06 |
| Knowledgeable-Twist 0xb811…5434 | Yes | +3,748 | $250 | $250 | 1 | 06-04 10:30 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +3,455 | $154 | $665 | 86 | 06-20 19:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x27b3…01bb | No | +2,000 | $1,880 | $1,880 | 3 | 06-04 10:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xe120…283e | No | +1,955 | $1,809 | $1,809 | 9 | 06-05 23:36 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +1,822 | $79 | $364 | 57 | 06-19 20:35 |
| Pleasant-Complexity 0x50b0…1640 | No | +1,562 | $1,500 | $1,500 | 1 | 06-21 15:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x1876…1ad5 | Yes | +1,000 | $70 | $70 | 1 | 06-18 15:58 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +875 | $822 | $822 | 1 | 06-01 22:56 |
| Red-Abnormality 0x3c10…f367 | Yes | +714 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 07:59 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | +601 | $34 | $34 | 16 | 06-20 20:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | +600 | $558 | $2,775 | 53 | 06-22 12:47 |
| Spiffy-Efficiency 0x9267…0338 | Yes | +500 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 06-13 08:56 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | +402 | $376 | $376 | 11 | 06-22 12:47 |
| Tempting-Rayon 0x14f7…1fab | No | +318 | $298 | $298 | 1 | 06-16 11:02 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +300 | $279 | $279 | 1 | 06-05 07:07 |
| Demanding-Entrepreneur 0x1d10…3bdd | No | +300 | $282 | $282 | 1 | 06-09 16:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xc409…4d2a | Yes | +200 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-20 20:27 |
| Wilted-Speaking 0x539b…624c | Yes | +150 | $10 | $10 | 4 | 06-16 11:02 |
| Memorable-Planning 0xadec…3c7b | Yes | +110 | $8 | $8 | 3 | 06-05 20:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xc1c9…3e2f | No | +104 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-21 09:28 |
| Heavenly-Choice 0x97d4…d66a | Yes | +101 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-02 09:30 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +100 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-19 06:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x0238…1288 | No | +100 | $93 | $93 | 3 | 06-02 21:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xfc00…0be0 | No | +83 | $78 | $78 | 1 | 06-18 15:58 |
| Repentant-Lane 0xbc7f…f922 | Yes | +67 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-20 12:31 |
| Forceful-Orchid 0xa01e…45e7 | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-05 02:39 |
| Velvety-Outlaw 0x1ee7…4ea8 | No | +50 | $46 | $46 | 2 | 06-04 13:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xb7d5…85ce | No | +46 | $43 | $43 | 1 | 05-28 14:14 |
| Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | +38 | $35 | $110 | 4 | 06-20 20:27 |
| Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | +31 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-04 09:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xac00…b58d | No | +23 | $22 | $22 | 2 | 06-17 02:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x9116…740b | No | +22 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 06-18 20:58 |
| Key-Vermicelli 0x2f85…05ff | No | +21 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 05-30 12:55 |
| Nifty-School 0x961e…eff2 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 05-31 20:39 |
| Naughty-Stab 0xc5ed…9374 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-04 09:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xd262…2199 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-18 19:11 |
| Variable-Lemon 0x8630…343e | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-08 19:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xd1ef…f23c | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-18 19:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xfaa0…a394 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 06-13 16:41 |
| Motionless-Anything 0xb1e0…d60c | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 06-02 21:33 |
| Closed-Rating 0x505e…affc | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 05-31 12:33 |
| Deserted-Shopping 0xbcba…223f | No | +6 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-02 21:33 |
| Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-12 06:32 |
| Wealthy-Tin 0x39a6…800d | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-01 15:53 |
| Kooky-Parallelogram 0x0949…cb3c | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-03 05:34 |
| Enormous-Fluke 0x23cc…4f5a | No | +1 | $1 | $18 | 3 | 06-17 13:34 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-22 12:47:50 | Cautious-Yahoo 0xf02a…629a | No | SELL | 43 | 95¢ | $40 | 0x43f220… |
| 06-22 12:47:50 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 40 | 95¢ | $38 | 0x43f220… |
| 06-22 12:47:50 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x43f220… |
| 06-22 08:47:31 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 43 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x5194bb… |
| 06-22 08:47:31 | Cautious-Yahoo 0xf02a…629a | No | BUY | 43 | 96¢ | $41 | 0x5194bb… |
| 06-22 02:23:29 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xdb876a… |
| 06-22 02:23:29 | Bland-Facelift 0x83d0…1a7e | Yes | SELL | 31 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xdb876a… |
| 06-22 01:59:13 | Loathsome-Refreshments 0xcd9e…9585 | No | SELL | 48 | 95¢ | $46 | 0x533f30… |
| 06-22 01:59:13 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 48 | 95¢ | $46 | 0x533f30… |
| 06-22 00:28:32 | Vague-Dare 0x7f31…ec67 | No | SELL | 43 | 95¢ | $41 | 0x4ca69d… |
| 06-22 00:28:32 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 43 | 95¢ | $41 | 0x4ca69d… |
| 06-21 22:40:44 | (anonymous) 0x2da4…dcd1 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x10f099… |
| 06-21 22:40:44 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x10f099… |
| 06-21 22:00:43 | Ornate-Cork 0x8c0f…0398 | No | SELL | 58 | 95¢ | $56 | 0xb99453… |
| 06-21 22:00:43 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 58 | 95¢ | $56 | 0xb99453… |
| 06-21 20:25:19 | Vague-Dare 0x7f31…ec67 | No | BUY | 43 | 96¢ | $41 | 0x04f553… |
| 06-21 20:25:19 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 43 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x04f553… |
| 06-21 19:52:44 | Loathsome-Refreshments 0xcd9e…9585 | No | BUY | 48 | 96¢ | $46 | 0xc7ff19… |
| 06-21 19:52:44 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 48 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xc7ff19… |
| 06-21 19:16:14 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xda5f3e… |
| 06-21 19:16:14 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xda5f3e… |
| 06-21 19:16:14 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 9 | 95¢ | $9 | 0xda5f3e… |
| 06-21 19:16:14 | Cute-Tatami 0x9517…fa34 | No | SELL | 51 | 95¢ | $48 | 0xda5f3e… |
| 06-21 18:48:02 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xa05dd0… |
| 06-21 18:48:02 | Criminal-Exit 0x5275…25cf | No | SELL | 31 | 95¢ | $30 | 0xa05dd0… |
| 06-21 18:09:05 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 58 | 5¢ | $3 | 0xcaf326… |
| 06-21 18:09:05 | Tremendous-Instrumentalist 0xcdd7…7438 | No | SELL | 58 | 95¢ | $56 | 0xcaf326… |
| 06-21 16:20:29 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 48 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x38162e… |
| 06-21 16:20:29 | Homely-Pennant 0xc4c5…3dd9 | No | SELL | 48 | 95¢ | $45 | 0x38162e… |
| 06-21 15:55:50 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 58 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xac4c5a… |
| 06-21 15:55:50 | Ornate-Cork 0x8c0f…0398 | No | BUY | 58 | 96¢ | $56 | 0xac4c5a… |
| 06-21 15:50:25 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 1,562 | 4¢ | $62 | 0x6181e2… |
| 06-21 15:50:25 | Pleasant-Complexity 0x50b0…1640 | No | BUY | 1,562 | 96¢ | $1,500 | 0x6181e2… |
| 06-21 14:25:40 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 58 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x39116f… |
| 06-21 14:25:40 | Mountainous-Muscle 0xf808…a234 | No | SELL | 58 | 95¢ | $55 | 0x39116f… |
| 06-21 13:05:55 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 58 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x02cd2c… |
| 06-21 13:05:55 | Tremendous-Instrumentalist 0xcdd7…7438 | No | BUY | 58 | 96¢ | $56 | 0x02cd2c… |
| 06-21 12:42:14 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xc8fa4e… |
| 06-21 12:42:14 | Criminal-Exit 0x5275…25cf | No | BUY | 31 | 96¢ | $30 | 0xc8fa4e… |
| 06-21 11:17:13 | Homely-Pennant 0xc4c5…3dd9 | No | BUY | 48 | 96¢ | $46 | 0xafa00c… |
| 06-21 11:17:13 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 48 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xafa00c… |
| 06-21 11:07:34 | Cute-Tatami 0x9517…fa34 | No | BUY | 51 | 96¢ | $49 | 0x736a09… |
| 06-21 11:07:34 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x736a09… |
| 06-21 09:28:50 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 104 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x8b6de8… |
| 06-21 09:28:50 | (anonymous) 0xc1c9…3e2f | No | BUY | 104 | 96¢ | $100 | 0x8b6de8… |
| 06-21 08:20:38 | Mountainous-Muscle 0xf808…a234 | No | BUY | 58 | 96¢ | $56 | 0xfd987d… |
| 06-21 08:20:38 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 58 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xfd987d… |
| 06-21 04:16:49 | Wide-Pillbox 0x4dc7…4ddd | No | SELL | 39 | 95¢ | $37 | 0x6316c4… |
| 06-21 04:16:49 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x6316c4… |
| 06-20 23:15:04 | Wide-Pillbox 0x4dc7…4ddd | No | BUY | 39 | 96¢ | $38 | 0x732cc8… |
| 06-20 23:15:04 | Husky-Angel 0x9e6d…1015 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x732cc8… |
| 06-20 23:15:04 | Runny-Cub 0x9c70…eaf8 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x732cc8… |
| 06-20 21:36:05 | Grown-Beet 0xc65f…2322 | No | SELL | 59 | 95¢ | $56 | 0x90a421… |
| 06-20 21:36:05 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 59 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x90a421… |
| 06-20 21:28:58 | Live-Custody 0x82dc…8644 | No | SELL | 70 | 95¢ | $67 | 0x2a0dcc… |
| 06-20 21:28:58 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 70 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x2a0dcc… |
| 06-20 20:27:14 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 1,945 | 5¢ | $97 | 0x3179b6… |
| 06-20 20:27:14 | Serpentine-Dialogue 0xa82c…dd71 | No | SELL | 1,626 | 95¢ | $1,545 | 0x3179b6… |
| 06-20 20:27:14 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 19 | 95¢ | $18 | 0x3179b6… |
| 06-20 20:27:14 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x3179b6… |
| 06-20 20:27:14 | (anonymous) 0xc409…4d2a | Yes | BUY | 200 | 5¢ | $10 | 0x3179b6… |
| 06-20 19:04:58 | Unselfish-Swath 0x4775…1abb | No | SELL | 65 | 94¢ | $62 | 0x3bac48… |
| 06-20 19:04:58 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 65 | 6¢ | $4 | 0x3bac48… |
| 06-20 15:30:26 | Serpentine-Dialogue 0xa82c…dd71 | No | SELL | 59 | 95¢ | $56 | 0x9ff046… |
| 06-20 15:30:26 | Grown-Beet 0xc65f…2322 | No | BUY | 59 | 95¢ | $56 | 0x9ff046… |
| 06-20 14:00:07 | Unselfish-Swath 0x4775…1abb | No | BUY | 65 | 95¢ | $62 | 0x83bc15… |
| 06-20 14:00:07 | Serpentine-Dialogue 0xa82c…dd71 | No | SELL | 65 | 95¢ | $62 | 0x83bc15… |
| 06-20 13:26:25 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $9 | 0xbdb5be… |
| 06-20 13:26:25 | Live-Custody 0x82dc…8644 | No | BUY | 70 | 95¢ | $67 | 0xbdb5be… |
| 06-20 13:26:25 | Serpentine-Dialogue 0xa82c…dd71 | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $47 | 0xbdb5be… |
| 06-20 12:31:13 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 67 | 6¢ | $4 | 0x4ad888… |
| 06-20 12:31:13 | Repentant-Lane 0xbc7f…f922 | Yes | BUY | 67 | 6¢ | $4 | 0x4ad888… |
| 06-20 10:09:28 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 47 | 94¢ | $44 | 0x6dab04… |
| 06-20 10:09:28 | Biodegradable-Ore 0x4f87…40fb | No | SELL | 55 | 94¢ | $52 | 0x6dab04… |
| 06-20 10:09:28 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 8 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x6dab04… |
| 06-20 06:51:25 | Inferior-Analysis 0xc0ca…cf5f | No | SELL | 45 | 94¢ | $42 | 0x0dc004… |
| 06-20 06:51:25 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 45 | 94¢ | $42 | 0x0dc004… |
| 06-20 05:26:59 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 8 | 94¢ | $8 | 0xb697d0… |
| 06-20 05:26:59 | Internal-Cost 0x93e7…dc37 | No | SELL | 38 | 94¢ | $36 | 0xb697d0… |
| 06-20 03:06:46 | Biodegradable-Ore 0x4f87…40fb | No | BUY | 55 | 95¢ | $52 | 0x75be5d… |
| 06-20 03:06:46 | Jittery-Crayfish 0x56ff…96ba | Yes | BUY | 55 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x75be5d… |
| 06-20 01:22:50 | Internal-Cost 0x93e7…dc37 | No | BUY | 38 | 95¢ | $37 | 0xf29d69… |
| 06-20 01:22:50 | Jittery-Crayfish 0x56ff…96ba | Yes | BUY | 38 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xf29d69… |
| 06-20 00:50:37 | Jittery-Crayfish 0x56ff…96ba | Yes | BUY | 45 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x23ee68… |
| 06-20 00:50:37 | Inferior-Analysis 0xc0ca…cf5f | No | BUY | 45 | 95¢ | $42 | 0x23ee68… |
| 06-20 00:50:07 | Weak-Decongestant 0xfdb4…6e6a | No | SELL | 70 | 94¢ | $66 | 0x4ea911… |
| 06-20 00:50:07 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 70 | 94¢ | $66 | 0x4ea911… |
| 06-19 21:17:05 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 1,462 | 5¢ | $73 | 0xe3500f… |
| 06-19 21:17:05 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 200 | 95¢ | $190 | 0xe3500f… |
| 06-19 21:17:05 | Jittery-Crayfish 0x56ff…96ba | Yes | BUY | 1,673 | 5¢ | $84 | 0xe3500f… |
| 06-19 21:17:05 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xe3500f… |
| 06-19 21:15:41 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $9 | 0x98f3d4… |
| 06-19 21:15:41 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 200 | 95¢ | $190 | 0x98f3d4… |
| 06-19 21:15:41 | Jittery-Crayfish 0x56ff…96ba | Yes | BUY | 3,026 | 5¢ | $151 | 0x98f3d4… |
| 06-19 21:15:41 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 2,816 | 5¢ | $141 | 0x98f3d4… |
| 06-19 20:35:38 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 2,739 | 5¢ | $137 | 0xe1905e… |
| 06-19 20:35:38 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 58 | 95¢ | $55 | 0xe1905e… |
| 06-19 20:35:38 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 1,598 | 5¢ | $80 | 0xe1905e… |
| 06-19 20:35:38 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 1,019 | 5¢ | $51 | 0xe1905e… |
| 06-19 19:47:34 | Weak-Decongestant 0xfdb4…6e6a | No | BUY | 70 | 95¢ | $66 | 0x600986… |