Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$74,268
$28 in 24h
Trades
1,806
Unique wallets
398
Liquidity
$56,705
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 08-06 07:21
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+15.6¢
(top1%: 28% YES on $1.2K
vs crowd: 13% YES on $39.2K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 24 | $31 | $10.4K | $10.4K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 30 | $1.0K | $7.4K | $6.4K |
| 🐟 Fish | 149 | $2.7K | $13.6K | $10.9K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 195 | $1.2K | $2.8K | $1.6K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 8 | $339 | $863 | $525 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 16 | $633 | $8.8K | $8.1K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 9 | $955 | $31 | +$923 |
| Median | 75 | $86 | $1.8K | $1.7K |
| Below median | 154 | $57 | $5.8K | $5.7K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 6 | $61 | $145 | $84 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 8 | $26 | $3.7K | $3.7K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | — | $2.1K | $2.1K |
| unranked | 118 | $2.8K | $11.1K | $8.3K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x0366…a001 | Yes | +20,000 | $949 | $949 | 9 | 07-21 08:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x0eda…fff0 | Yes | +15,085 | $573 | $573 | 3 | 07-09 19:25 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +5,376 | $216 | $924 | 94 | 07-08 18:34 |
| Odd-Cannon 0x6e2c…b7f8 | No | +4,786 | $4,569 | $5,011 | 56 | 07-28 23:18 |
| Knowledgeable-Twist 0xb811…5434 | Yes | +3,748 | $250 | $250 | 1 | 06-04 10:30 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +3,379 | $125 | $533 | 61 | 08-06 02:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x27b3…01bb | No | +2,000 | $1,880 | $1,880 | 3 | 06-04 10:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x76fd…b25b | Yes | +1,862 | $85 | $85 | 3 | 07-21 15:51 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +1,503 | $1,424 | $1,424 | 7 | 08-02 14:28 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | +1,495 | $70 | $70 | 69 | 08-06 02:52 |
| Pleasing-Deck 0xaad3…e666 | Yes | +1,115 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 08-06 03:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x1876…1ad5 | Yes | +1,000 | $70 | $70 | 1 | 06-18 15:58 |
| Beneficial-Employ 0x07d4…f94f | No | +935 | $897 | $897 | 3 | 07-24 17:37 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | +888 | $837 | $837 | 18 | 07-15 13:52 |
| Genuine-Vintage 0x0e5c…3036 | Yes | +830 | $27 | $74 | 5 | 08-06 03:01 |
| Red-Abnormality 0x3c10…f367 | Yes | +714 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-04 07:59 |
| Serene-Decision 0x8b4b…541b | No | +590 | $561 | $561 | 5 | 06-24 10:21 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +555 | $536 | $536 | 11 | 07-31 08:29 |
| Spiffy-Efficiency 0x9267…0338 | Yes | +500 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 06-13 08:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xb792…8e7d | Yes | +449 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 06-24 10:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xb299…d48c | Yes | +400 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 06-24 20:13 |
| Warm-Habitat 0x0049…6034 | No | +321 | $305 | $305 | 8 | 08-05 09:04 |
| Tempting-Rayon 0x14f7…1fab | No | +318 | $298 | $298 | 1 | 06-16 11:02 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +300 | $279 | $279 | 1 | 06-05 07:07 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +261 | $8 | $11 | 2 | 08-02 18:29 |
| Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | +254 | $244 | $941 | 80 | 08-06 03:01 |
| Hearty-Sprat 0xc2db…6865 | No | +232 | $223 | $223 | 35 | 08-06 03:17 |
| Brown-Prison 0x41ae…51e0 | Yes | +200 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-24 15:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x1823…8e49 | Yes | +198 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-29 14:56 |
| Glass-Typewriter 0xa49b…7054 | No | +155 | $149 | $149 | 7 | 08-05 21:09 |
| Wilted-Speaking 0x539b…624c | Yes | +150 | $10 | $10 | 4 | 06-16 11:02 |
| Peppery-Syndicate 0x4700…41ce | No | +126 | $121 | $121 | 2 | 08-05 09:22 |
| Memorable-Planning 0xadec…3c7b | Yes | +110 | $8 | $8 | 3 | 06-05 20:02 |
| Heavenly-Choice 0x97d4…d66a | Yes | +101 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-02 09:30 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +95 | $5 | $14 | 4 | 07-22 07:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xc584…8640 | No | +82 | $80 | $80 | 15 | 07-31 09:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | +75 | $2 | $8 | 9 | 08-06 07:21 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | +71 | $68 | $117 | 2 | 07-20 09:41 |
| Repentant-Lane 0xbc7f…f922 | Yes | +67 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-20 12:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x681f…e1f3 | No | +61 | $58 | $58 | 7 | 08-04 20:21 |
| Vigilant-Pump 0xc771…b251 | No | +51 | $49 | $49 | 12 | 07-28 19:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x0c37…063d | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-10 02:31 |
| Verifiable-Macaw 0x1e1a…7690 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-02 19:58 |
| Velvety-Outlaw 0x1ee7…4ea8 | No | +50 | $46 | $46 | 2 | 06-04 13:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xb7d5…85ce | No | +46 | $43 | $43 | 1 | 05-28 14:14 |
| Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | +44 | $41 | $208 | 13 | 08-02 05:10 |
| Total-Sash 0x243c…2240 | Yes | +32 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-25 12:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x84d4…77a9 | No | +25 | $24 | $24 | 1 | 07-31 08:29 |
| Blank-Gymnastics 0x70b8…ec6c | No | +24 | $23 | $23 | 1 | 07-11 05:57 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 07:21:42 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x15de40… |
| 08-06 07:21:42 | (anonymous) 0x5cb1…3cb2 | No | SELL | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x15de40… |
| 08-06 06:45:05 | (anonymous) 0x8697…196d | No | SELL | 3 | 95¢ | $3 | 0xe90821… |
| 08-06 06:45:05 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | SELL | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xe90821… |
| 08-06 03:17:03 | (anonymous) 0x77fd…85d8 | No | SELL | 6 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x81075a… |
| 08-06 03:17:03 | Hearty-Sprat 0xc2db…6865 | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x81075a… |
| 08-06 03:01:11 | Genuine-Vintage 0x0e5c…3036 | Yes | SELL | 300 | 5¢ | $14 | 0x2d835c… |
| 08-06 03:01:11 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 366 | 4¢ | $16 | 0x2d835c… |
| 08-06 03:01:11 | Hearty-Sprat 0xc2db…6865 | No | BUY | 83 | 95¢ | $79 | 0x2d835c… |
| 08-06 03:01:11 | Pleasing-Deck 0xaad3…e666 | Yes | BUY | 1,115 | 4¢ | $50 | 0x2d835c… |
| 08-06 03:01:11 | (anonymous) 0xbfd7…f91d | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x2d835c… |
| 08-06 03:01:11 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 52 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x2d835c… |
| 08-06 03:01:11 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x2d835c… |
| 08-06 02:52:53 | (anonymous) 0x638e…2540 | Yes | SELL | 3,259 | 3¢ | $103 | 0xfb6ca6… |
| 08-06 02:52:53 | Genuine-Vintage 0x0e5c…3036 | No | SELL | 1,945 | 97¢ | $1,882 | 0xfb6ca6… |
| 08-06 02:52:53 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xfb6ca6… |
| 08-06 02:52:53 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 363 | 3¢ | $12 | 0xfb6ca6… |
| 08-06 02:52:53 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xfb6ca6… |
| 08-06 02:52:53 | (anonymous) 0xbfd7…f91d | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $6 | 0xfb6ca6… |
| 08-06 02:52:53 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 538 | 3¢ | $16 | 0xfb6ca6… |
| 08-06 02:52:53 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 84 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xfb6ca6… |
| 08-06 02:52:53 | (anonymous) 0x3b9f…ee40 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xfb6ca6… |
| 08-06 02:49:24 | Junior-Density 0x295c…0f9a | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x8798e3… |
| 08-06 02:49:24 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x8798e3… |
| 08-06 02:40:30 | (anonymous) 0x8697…196d | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x16d565… |
| 08-06 02:40:30 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x16d565… |
| 08-06 00:20:12 | (anonymous) 0x5cb1…3cb2 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x8150a7… |
| 08-06 00:20:12 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x8150a7… |
| 08-05 22:46:47 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x85e101… |
| 08-05 22:46:47 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x85e101… |
| 08-05 22:43:06 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xe246b7… |
| 08-05 22:43:06 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xe246b7… |
| 08-05 22:35:02 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf3c11c… |
| 08-05 22:35:02 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf3c11c… |
| 08-05 22:31:15 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc36219… |
| 08-05 22:31:15 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc36219… |
| 08-05 22:27:38 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x7e4527… |
| 08-05 22:27:38 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x7e4527… |
| 08-05 22:23:48 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x682444… |
| 08-05 22:23:48 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x682444… |
| 08-05 22:14:05 | (anonymous) 0x77fd…85d8 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa44c6d… |
| 08-05 22:14:05 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xa44c6d… |
| 08-05 21:09:12 | Gullible-Petitioner 0x9fb5…7682 | No | SELL | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x5c5008… |
| 08-05 21:09:12 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x5c5008… |
| 08-05 21:09:12 | Glass-Typewriter 0xa49b…7054 | No | BUY | 26 | 96¢ | $25 | 0x5c5008… |
| 08-05 21:09:12 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x5c5008… |
| 08-05 20:37:27 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 4 | 96¢ | $4 | 0xb2a7f2… |
| 08-05 20:37:27 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb2a7f2… |
| 08-05 20:36:32 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 4 | 96¢ | $4 | 0x84919c… |
| 08-05 20:36:32 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 4 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x84919c… |
| 08-05 20:14:59 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x578917… |
| 08-05 20:14:59 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x578917… |
| 08-05 20:14:59 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x578917… |
| 08-05 20:14:03 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x290957… |
| 08-05 20:14:03 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x290957… |
| 08-05 20:06:32 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc2770e… |
| 08-05 20:06:32 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xc2770e… |
| 08-05 20:05:41 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x32d648… |
| 08-05 20:05:41 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x32d648… |
| 08-05 19:27:03 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x0cf2f4… |
| 08-05 19:27:03 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x0cf2f4… |
| 08-05 19:26:03 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x88137b… |
| 08-05 19:26:03 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x88137b… |
| 08-05 19:02:03 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x49ce2e… |
| 08-05 19:02:03 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x49ce2e… |
| 08-05 19:02:03 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x49ce2e… |
| 08-05 19:01:14 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x5de69b… |
| 08-05 19:01:14 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x5de69b… |
| 08-05 18:59:00 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x7f8978… |
| 08-05 18:59:00 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x7f8978… |
| 08-05 18:58:08 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xc11053… |
| 08-05 18:58:08 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc11053… |
| 08-05 18:50:06 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x4c8866… |
| 08-05 18:50:06 | (anonymous) 0xa816…cd0a | No | SELL | 4 | 96¢ | $4 | 0x4c8866… |
| 08-05 18:12:35 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xe9d878… |
| 08-05 18:12:35 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xe9d878… |
| 08-05 18:11:38 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc88c14… |
| 08-05 18:11:38 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xc88c14… |
| 08-05 17:33:38 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x23d7d3… |
| 08-05 17:33:38 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x23d7d3… |
| 08-05 17:32:45 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x59eaf9… |
| 08-05 17:32:45 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x59eaf9… |
| 08-05 17:25:29 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x820269… |
| 08-05 17:25:29 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x820269… |
| 08-05 17:24:38 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x6f803c… |
| 08-05 17:24:38 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x6f803c… |
| 08-05 16:51:24 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x1bfa4c… |
| 08-05 16:51:24 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x1bfa4c… |
| 08-05 16:50:32 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x318627… |
| 08-05 16:50:32 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x318627… |
| 08-05 15:21:06 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x115fa8… |
| 08-05 15:21:06 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x115fa8… |
| 08-05 15:20:15 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xa07f77… |
| 08-05 15:20:15 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xa07f77… |
| 08-05 10:42:11 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x02cd29… |
| 08-05 10:42:11 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x02cd29… |
| 08-05 10:31:12 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 8 | 96¢ | $8 | 0xa0a4b1… |
| 08-05 10:31:12 | (anonymous) 0x37cf…d4e4 | No | SELL | 8 | 96¢ | $8 | 0xa0a4b1… |
| 08-05 09:22:44 | Peppery-Syndicate 0x4700…41ce | No | BUY | 45 | 96¢ | $43 | 0xf985fc… |
| 08-05 09:22:44 | (anonymous) 0xad9b…bf11 | No | SELL | 45 | 96¢ | $43 | 0xf985fc… |