Realized P&L
+$86.1K
Unrealized P&L
+$2.71K
Hit rate
54.3%
Resolved
29,714
Trades
450,633
lifetime
Volume
$2.80M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$8.06K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-16 11:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 270 days
Categories
Other
95% 46% +$90,297
Politics
3% 32% -$3,681
Tech
1% 39% -$63
Crypto
1% 57% -$467
Sports
0% 56% -$21
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$4
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
41 active days in 12wk • peak 1454 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? No +2,665 $1,439 80¢ $2.1K +$693 09-05 10:06
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +4,293 $643 41¢ $1.8K +$1,128 09-11 19:12
will cmi declare a millennium prize problem solved by december 31 2026 20260723160122980 No +815 $700 94¢ $769 +$69 09-05 10:07
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +861 $598 82¢ $710 +$112 08-26 21:55
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No +608 $524 90¢ $550 +$26 09-14 10:03
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +269 $102 95¢ $255 +$152 08-18 05:25
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? No +246 $237 98¢ $242 +$5 09-06 21:00
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No +244 $229 96¢ $235 +$5 09-15 21:52
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +1,690 $33 9¢ $146 +$113 09-15 06:35
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +687 $205 19¢ $131 -$74 08-20 21:19
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +398 $14 25¢ $101 +$87 09-12 22:35
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? No -100 -$95 98¢ $-98 -$3 07-18 21:25
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes -162 -$450 53¢ $-86 +$364 09-12 23:04
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? No -105 -$45 81¢ $-85 -$40 07-01 14:03
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +97 $57 86¢ $83 +$26 08-21 11:47
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No +88 $88 94¢ $83 -$5 09-14 21:20
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes -117 -$98 68¢ $-79 +$19 09-14 23:35
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +317 $18 23¢ $72 +$54 09-15 08:20
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? No +67 $64 98¢ $66 +$2 09-11 15:04
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +138 $34 34¢ $48 +$13 09-14 22:45
Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes -72 -$42 52¢ $-37 +$5 09-07 05:53
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? No +38 $36 96¢ $36 +$0 08-26 18:49
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No +34 $33 97¢ $33 +$0 09-02 09:15
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +35 $31 94¢ $33 +$2 08-17 22:10
Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026? No +32 $30 97¢ $31 +$1 09-07 00:37
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? No +32 $30 98¢ $31 +$1 09-09 03:54
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? No +31 $30 98¢ $30 +$1 08-24 21:23
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No +31 $29 97¢ $30 +$1 08-03 22:03
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Yes -38 -$36 79¢ $-30 +$7 09-02 14:42
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +827 $84 4¢ $29 -$54 09-13 15:52