Realized P&L
-$77
Unrealized P&L
+$170
Hit rate
45.8%
Resolved
21
Trades
12,034
lifetime
Volume
$170.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$14
Open exposure
$2.68K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-15
last 06-15 12:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Other
52% 88% +$5
Politics
37% 62% $-74
Crypto
7%
Sports
3% 60% $-9
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 346 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No +352 $327 93¢ $327 +$0 06-15 14:28
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No +247 $240 99¢ $244 +$4 06-15 00:02
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -238 $-233 99¢ $-237 $-3 06-15 14:03
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -167 $-153 94¢ $-158 $-5 06-15 13:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +160 $155 98¢ $157 +$2 06-15 03:17
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -176 $-152 88¢ $-156 $-4 06-15 09:32
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? No +155 $152 100¢ $154 +$2 06-15 13:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +198 $160 72¢ $144 $-17 06-15 10:16
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +138 $132 96¢ $132 +$1 06-15 14:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +104 $80 88¢ $91 +$11 06-15 14:28
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No +101 $82 84¢ $85 +$4 06-07 03:39
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No +78 $73 94¢ $73 +$0 06-07 21:26
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No -71 $-70 99¢ $-71 $-0 06-15 04:53
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes +73 $67 90¢ $66 $-1 06-15 14:04
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +69 $59 84¢ $58 $-1 06-15 14:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +58 $-108 97¢ $56 +$164 06-15 10:14
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes +53 $48 88¢ $46 $-2 06-14 05:58
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -43 $-42 99¢ $-43 $-1 06-13 22:38
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +45 $45 94¢ $42 $-3 06-15 14:39
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No +41 $40 98¢ $40 +$0 06-15 00:31
Trump out as President before 2027? No +42 $38 90¢ $38 +$0 06-08 09:40
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? No +38 $38 99¢ $38 +$0 06-12 16:55
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +42 $32 86¢ $36 +$4 06-12 12:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +112 $17 28¢ $31 +$13 06-14 22:19
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No +31 $31 99¢ $31 +$0 06-14 22:11
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No +31 $29 96¢ $30 +$1 06-15 10:21
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No +28 $27 98¢ $27 +$0 06-15 14:04
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No -25 $-25 99¢ $-25 $-0 06-01 08:19
Anthropic CEO arrested? No +24 $24 99¢ $24 +$0 06-04 11:01
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No +24 $23 100¢ $23 +$0 06-15 01:43