Mundane-Airbag — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$77

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.8%

Resolved

Trades

18,364

lifetime

Volume

$262.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-15

last 08-12 18:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

51% 88% +$5

Politics

36% 62% $-74

Crypto

8% — —

Sports

3% 60% $-9

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 351 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	840	$13.4K	6,841	7,348	-507	open	—	08-12 06:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	558	$12.9K	6,078	7,029	-951	open	—	06-22 13:23
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	208	$9.2K	5,339	4,090	+1,249	open	—	03-18 16:59
netanyahu out by march 31 854	456	$9.0K	5,114	4,112	+1,002	open	—	03-31 05:13
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	544	$8.7K	4,653	4,343	+309	open	—	04-26 21:08
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	608	$8.7K	4,445	4,617	-172	open	—	08-12 05:28
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	581	$7.4K	3,978	3,906	+72	open	—	08-12 05:18
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	504	$7.1K	3,924	3,338	+586	open	—	03-31 15:52
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	201	$5.6K	5,941	4,725	+1,216	open	—	06-16 12:05
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	83	$5.1K	5,716	803	+4,913	open	—	06-02 23:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	262	$4.9K	3,488	2,884	+604	open	—	06-29 18:18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	297	$4.9K	2,984	1,979	+1,005	open	—	04-25 16:59
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	170	$4.7K	3,121	3,589	-467	open	—	08-12 18:07
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	96	$4.3K	3,577	3,767	-190	open	—	03-04 16:46
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	196	$4.3K	2,094	2,486	-392	open	—	08-12 06:46
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	146	$4.2K	3,687	899	+2,788	open	—	04-08 01:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	259	$3.5K	1,819	1,756	+63	open	—	04-27 03:04
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	395	$3.1K	1,525	1,843	-318	open	—	08-12 05:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	204	$2.6K	1,469	1,331	+138	open	—	06-01 20:05
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	102	$2.2K	1,179	1,230	-51	open	—	08-12 06:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	150	$1.8K	1,446	973	+473	open	—	07-27 13:19
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	133	$1.8K	899	993	-94	open	—	08-12 05:28
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	49	$1.8K	980	980	+0	open	—	08-12 06:54
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	96	$1.8K	1,041	767	+274	open	—	06-19 06:38
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	117	$1.7K	1,303	554	+749	open	—	04-08 23:37
fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread away 1pt5	4	$1.6K	1,040	592	+448	open	—	06-15 17:50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	131	$1.6K	849	792	+56	open	—	05-31 10:53
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	150	$1.6K	977	654	+323	open	—	05-30 01:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	7	$1.5K	841	701	+140	open	—	05-30 01:51
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	145	$1.5K	699	826	-127	open	—	06-22 12:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 18:07:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	839	82¢	$688	0x7bfa7f…
08-12 06:58:24	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0xa55470…
08-12 06:58:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	238	52¢	$124	0x08095d…
08-12 06:56:09	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	110	91¢	$100	0x0c0e5e…
08-12 06:54:40	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	108	92¢	$99	0x56492f…
08-12 06:54:01	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	91¢	$89	0x0a4987…
08-12 06:53:51	Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	80	98¢	$78	0xb2919e…
08-12 06:53:42	Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	89	86¢	$77	0xe6792f…
08-12 06:53:28	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	109	69¢	$75	0x5c868d…
08-12 06:53:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0xa871c7…
08-12 06:52:30	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	No	SELL	81	75¢	$61	0xb6b561…
08-12 06:52:18	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	271	22¢	$60	0x8d7131…
08-12 06:52:10	mlb atl cws 2026 06 11	Atlanta Braves	SELL	114	52¢	$59	0x364bd2…
08-12 06:51:27	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	SELL	57	99¢	$56	0x916667…
08-12 06:51:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	56	98¢	$54	0xc12629…
08-12 06:51:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	54	97¢	$52	0xb650e7…
08-12 06:50:40	will xrp reach 3 in august 2026	No	SELL	48	99¢	$48	0xcc0878…
08-12 06:50:31	Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	48	97¢	$47	0x214291…
08-12 06:50:24	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	49	95¢	$46	0x97e792…
08-12 06:50:04	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	45	94¢	$42	0x3a20e6…
08-12 06:49:52	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742051	No	SELL	47	85¢	$40	0xe58e8d…
08-12 06:49:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	41	96¢	$40	0x25ea4b…
08-12 06:48:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0x4af244…
08-12 06:48:04	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	39	93¢	$36	0x28a9d1…
08-12 06:47:55	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x62804c…
08-12 06:47:48	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	93¢	$35	0xe6c62f…
08-12 06:47:37	Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	92¢	$35	0x46b5fa…
08-12 06:47:28	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	43	81¢	$35	0xc95661…
08-12 06:47:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	38	89¢	$34	0x010eb8…
08-12 06:47:00	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	94¢	$33	0x9c403c…
08-12 06:46:51	Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0x672e11…
08-12 06:46:40	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	32	98¢	$31	0xffd8ec…
08-12 06:46:31	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xed0018…
08-12 06:46:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	31	92¢	$29	0x19498e…
08-12 06:45:58	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x017926…
08-12 06:45:49	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	SELL	35	80¢	$28	0xca754f…
08-12 06:45:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xec8892…
08-12 06:45:28	will iran target ukraine by august 31 2026 20260727234956917	No	SELL	27	98¢	$26	0xe5db61…
08-12 06:45:18	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	27	95¢	$26	0x6454b2…
08-12 06:45:09	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0xf4ae67…
08-12 06:44:58	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	SELL	26	95¢	$25	0x924c23…
08-12 06:44:21	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x1096db…
08-12 06:44:12	will china blockade taiwan by in 2026	No	SELL	25	94¢	$24	0x01915e…
08-12 06:44:01	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	71	32¢	$23	0xfa2511…
08-12 06:43:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	SELL	25	91¢	$23	0x395d75…
08-12 06:43:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	SELL	28	80¢	$23	0x27d5be…
08-12 06:42:51	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0x3434ca…
08-12 06:42:43	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	28	78¢	$22	0xeba670…
08-12 06:42:33	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	22	97¢	$21	0xd8a38c…
08-12 06:42:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	SELL	33	64¢	$21	0xa84c91…
08-12 06:42:15	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	22	94¢	$21	0x76379a…
08-12 06:41:45	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	22	93¢	$20	0x71183f…
08-12 06:41:18	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	21	98¢	$20	0xe3903a…
08-12 06:41:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	24	84¢	$20	0xb721bd…
08-12 06:40:46	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	SELL	22	89¢	$19	0x8feece…
08-12 06:40:18	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	56¢	$19	0x2aa91b…
08-12 06:39:57	will prabowo subianto cease to be president of indonesia by december 31 2026	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xbf26b0…
08-12 06:39:48	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	SELL	21	88¢	$18	0x4c7423…
08-12 06:39:24	Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0xb7bf6f…
08-12 06:39:12	us charges hormuz fees by august 31 2026 20260713151243234	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x2921eb…
08-12 06:39:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	19	93¢	$18	0xa5dec9…
08-12 06:38:40	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x9119a8…
08-12 06:38:22	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xa2daf8…
08-12 06:38:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$17	0xf47fd1…
08-12 06:37:52	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	22	77¢	$17	0x3e9ad5…
08-12 06:37:42	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0x12dc31…
08-12 06:37:33	Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$17	0x5a29b1…
08-12 06:37:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xb8342c…
08-12 06:37:13	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0xb8d22c…
08-12 06:36:43	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742049	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x24b143…
08-12 06:36:12	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x4a288a…
08-12 06:36:03	ukraine election called by august 31 2026	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x10c1f7…
08-12 06:35:48	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	SELL	16	90¢	$14	0x41e7c8…
08-12 06:35:27	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xbb9a04…
08-12 06:35:13	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	24	57¢	$14	0x371467…
08-12 06:34:55	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xb57b2f…
08-12 06:34:46	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by september 30 145	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x720781…
08-12 06:34:10	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by august 31 2026	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0xd56a7f…
08-12 06:34:01	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0xdd4664…
08-12 06:33:51	will spain accuse morocco of facilitating the ceuta migrant influx by august 31 20260731174220331	No	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0x4d391a…
08-12 06:33:43	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	SELL	13	96¢	$13	0x6d748a…
08-12 06:33:25	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	SELL	13	95¢	$12	0x138560…
08-12 06:33:06	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0xe48811…
08-12 06:32:49	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x8da1d6…
08-12 06:32:21	Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	92¢	$11	0x0fe6ef…
08-12 06:32:12	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	17	64¢	$11	0xa41052…
08-12 06:31:51	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117	No	SELL	13	82¢	$11	0x9b5e9d…
08-12 06:31:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x49a275…
08-12 06:31:24	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	No	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0x822aec…
08-12 06:31:15	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xde2254…
08-12 06:31:06	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0xd8e8b6…
08-12 06:30:45	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	Yes	SELL	12	82¢	$10	0xae83b4…
08-12 06:30:31	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xd06f3c…
08-12 06:30:22	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xbe7303…
08-12 06:30:04	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	19	49¢	$9	0xd742c2…
08-12 06:29:57	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0x1d9bb6…
08-12 06:29:48	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	12	77¢	$9	0x186c07…
08-12 06:29:39	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	11	77¢	$9	0x92961a…
08-12 06:29:13	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?	No	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0xebe053…
08-12 06:29:03	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	SELL	15	57¢	$9	0x7dd7ff…