Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$473,029
$713 in 24h
Trades
18,107
Unique wallets
1,802
Liquidity
$94,254
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 08-17 21:36
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+11.1¢
(top1%: 12% YES on $4.9K
vs crowd: 1% YES on $259.0K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 20 | $17 | $43.7K | $43.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 39 | $2.3K | $72.0K | $69.7K |
| 🐟 Fish | 683 | $565 | $92.8K | $92.2K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 1,060 | $243 | $47.4K | $47.1K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 6 | $608 | $4.3K | $3.7K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 18 | $1.1K | $9.3K | $8.1K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 14 | $11 | $5.8K | $5.8K |
| Median | 241 | $18 | $13.4K | $13.3K |
| Below median | 528 | $159 | $86.8K | $86.6K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 24 | $12 | $4.0K | $4.0K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 28 | $185 | $12.0K | $11.8K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $21 | $350 | $329 |
| unranked | 940 | $958 | $120.0K | $119.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | +20,375 | $20,017 | $22,078 | 213 | 08-16 13:43 |
| Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | +14,964 | $278 | $278 | 209 | 06-11 02:24 |
| Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | No | +14,762 | $14,493 | $22,864 | 367 | 06-30 08:26 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +13,249 | $277 | $1,921 | 1,141 | 08-17 21:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x9879…bc99 | No | +5,719 | $5,605 | $5,605 | 4 | 06-12 15:04 |
| Bruised-Mango 0x6bcd…06b9 | No | +5,629 | $5,541 | $5,541 | 42 | 07-21 22:47 |
| Tinted-Consciousness 0xfea3…d227 | No | +4,426 | $4,340 | $4,340 | 5 | 06-02 02:37 |
| Aromatic-Grid 0xaa0d…c48c | No | +3,099 | $3,042 | $3,042 | 1 | 06-21 05:57 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +3,000 | $82 | $82 | 2 | 06-01 18:46 |
| Passionate-Nationality 0xab81…5ecd | No | +2,880 | $2,828 | $2,828 | 85 | 08-03 13:57 |
| Bruised-Mango 0x6bcd…06b9 | Yes | +2,830 | $42 | $42 | 29 | 06-05 13:46 |
| Quirky-Temptation 0xdebb…4b4c | Yes | +2,600 | $50 | $82 | 7 | 06-29 14:11 |
| Quirky-Temptation 0xdebb…4b4c | No | +2,600 | $2,552 | $2,552 | 42 | 06-17 10:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x30dd…bb80 | No | +2,066 | $2,037 | $2,037 | 1 | 07-02 03:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x2f6e…7d46 | No | +2,000 | $1,968 | $1,968 | 11 | 06-06 03:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x2f6e…7d46 | Yes | +2,000 | $32 | $32 | 8 | 06-22 22:03 |
| Blushing-Roast 0x7ad0…19e3 | Yes | +1,900 | $31 | $31 | 2 | 06-06 04:10 |
| Distorted-Dude 0xe36f…cd91 | No | +1,664 | $1,615 | $1,615 | 20 | 06-01 18:44 |
| Mediocre-Paradise 0xc30c…6509 | No | +1,550 | $1,520 | $7,558 | 72 | 08-03 11:05 |
| Haunting-Serial 0x83d4…bce8 | No | +1,500 | $1,468 | $1,468 | 1 | 06-11 02:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x1690…72c8 | Yes | +1,500 | $39 | $75 | 3 | 06-27 12:04 |
| Nervous-Overload 0x1c4f…2852 | No | +1,357 | $1,324 | $9,556 | 50 | 06-12 02:40 |
| Haunting-Serial 0x83d4…bce8 | Yes | +1,340 | $37 | $76 | 59 | 06-26 01:14 |
| Sardonic-Characterization 0xad33…9962 | No | +1,280 | $1,255 | $1,255 | 1 | 06-17 10:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x1690…72c8 | No | +1,276 | $1,250 | $1,250 | 128 | 06-16 16:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x21bd…45c4 | Yes | +1,154 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 06-26 15:54 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +1,105 | $17 | $297 | 363 | 08-12 14:42 |
| Insistent-Standard 0xb9fe…f33a | No | +1,020 | $1,000 | $1,000 | 1 | 06-12 02:40 |
| Uneven-Envy 0x4bad…62c5 | No | +1,000 | $979 | $979 | 14 | 06-18 06:51 |
| Uneven-Envy 0x4bad…62c5 | Yes | +1,000 | $24 | $50 | 9 | 06-29 14:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x32db…c7f0 | Yes | +762 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 06-25 09:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xd778…f2d5 | Yes | +714 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-10 17:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xcc6d…c7bd | No | +699 | $689 | $911 | 3 | 06-25 09:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x04db…c253 | Yes | +667 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-21 06:32 |
| Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | Yes | +507 | $16 | $279 | 51 | 08-03 00:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | +500 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 08-05 20:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x8685…7ad9 | No | +461 | $453 | $453 | 6 | 06-03 08:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x4399…2bd0 | No | +419 | $406 | $1,602 | 2 | 06-14 21:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b77…b6c2 | No | +407 | $400 | $400 | 1 | 08-10 03:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x23b0…a7c8 | No | +365 | $359 | $792 | 20 | 06-27 06:20 |
| Sane-Cytokine 0xa9d0…60ed | Yes | +355 | $2 | $8 | 3 | 06-22 22:03 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +350 | $344 | $344 | 2 | 06-14 02:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x25ed…69cf | No | +339 | $332 | $332 | 15 | 06-03 07:55 |
| Harmful-Ratepayer 0xdc1f…d243 | Yes | +317 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-07 19:15 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb87…fa96 | No | +300 | $296 | $296 | 2 | 07-13 18:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x542a…5b48 | No | +300 | $296 | $296 | 1 | 06-05 16:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x59b2…a9ac | No | +300 | $296 | $296 | 5 | 07-24 00:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x4593…9d77 | No | +295 | $290 | $290 | 1 | 08-13 03:30 |
| Raw-Tambour 0x0b6f…dd2a | No | +266 | $262 | $262 | 14 | 08-07 21:32 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-17 21:36:54 | Joyous-Volcano 0xc854…165b | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0xc6aacb… |
| 08-17 21:36:54 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc6aacb… |
| 08-17 21:24:37 | (anonymous) 0xea13…8b60 | No | SELL | 7 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x3bb0cd… |
| 08-17 21:24:37 | Clear-Cut-Brand 0x176c…00a0 | No | BUY | 7 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x3bb0cd… |
| 08-17 20:47:43 | Feline-Discipline 0x41e1…8afe | No | BUY | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0xbb43bd… |
| 08-17 20:47:43 | (anonymous) 0xea13…8b60 | No | SELL | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0xbb43bd… |
| 08-17 19:34:27 | Plain-Guitar 0x7fc4…b202 | No | BUY | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x2f88cd… |
| 08-17 19:34:27 | (anonymous) 0xea13…8b60 | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x2f88cd… |
| 08-17 19:13:49 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x978797… |
| 08-17 19:13:49 | Thin-Towel 0x53e3…6d29 | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x978797… |
| 08-17 18:43:58 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x9b031b… |
| 08-17 18:43:58 | Courteous-Shoestring 0x57c4…0b40 | No | SELL | 7 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x9b031b… |
| 08-17 18:29:37 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 514 | 2¢ | $9 | 0x6f0ba6… |
| 08-17 18:29:37 | (anonymous) 0x60a8…d335 | No | SELL | 514 | 98¢ | $505 | 0x6f0ba6… |
| 08-17 18:26:30 | Joyous-Volcano 0xc854…165b | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x13c170… |
| 08-17 18:26:30 | (anonymous) 0xea13…8b60 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x13c170… |
| 08-17 16:56:00 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | SELL | 13 | 98¢ | $13 | 0x409d03… |
| 08-17 16:56:00 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 13 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x409d03… |
| 08-17 16:55:49 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | BUY | 13 | 98¢ | $13 | 0x1b8134… |
| 08-17 16:55:49 | (anonymous) 0xea13…8b60 | No | SELL | 13 | 98¢ | $13 | 0x1b8134… |
| 08-17 16:55:31 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | SELL | 15 | 98¢ | $15 | 0xea8aef… |
| 08-17 16:55:31 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 15 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xea8aef… |
| 08-17 16:55:18 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | BUY | 14 | 98¢ | $14 | 0x855519… |
| 08-17 16:55:18 | (anonymous) 0xea13…8b60 | No | SELL | 14 | 98¢ | $14 | 0x855519… |
| 08-17 16:02:52 | (anonymous) 0xea13…8b60 | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x9b680c… |
| 08-17 16:02:52 | Thin-Towel 0x53e3…6d29 | No | BUY | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x9b680c… |
| 08-17 15:32:54 | Courteous-Shoestring 0x57c4…0b40 | No | BUY | 7 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x91f490… |
| 08-17 15:32:54 | (anonymous) 0xea13…8b60 | No | SELL | 7 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x91f490… |
| 08-17 14:35:01 | Surprised-Breakfast 0xeef1…bcbc | No | SELL | 559 | 98¢ | $549 | 0x3d0d3d… |
| 08-17 14:35:01 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 559 | 2¢ | $10 | 0x3d0d3d… |
| 08-17 10:46:27 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | SELL | 225 | 98¢ | $221 | 0x5969d4… |
| 08-17 10:46:27 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 225 | 2¢ | $4 | 0x5969d4… |
| 08-17 10:44:52 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | BUY | 225 | 98¢ | $221 | 0x678617… |
| 08-17 10:44:52 | (anonymous) 0x0232…6dd2 | No | SELL | 92 | 98¢ | $91 | 0x678617… |
| 08-17 10:44:52 | (anonymous) 0xea13…8b60 | No | SELL | 72 | 98¢ | $71 | 0x678617… |
| 08-17 10:44:52 | (anonymous) 0x3a04…0ede | No | SELL | 51 | 98¢ | $50 | 0x678617… |
| 08-17 10:44:52 | (anonymous) 0xe01f…4af7 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x678617… |
| 08-17 07:57:33 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 79 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xf047a5… |
| 08-17 07:57:33 | Insistent-Pollution 0xd2c3…77bd | No | SELL | 79 | 98¢ | $78 | 0xf047a5… |
| 08-17 07:38:48 | (anonymous) 0x0232…6dd2 | No | SELL | 54 | 98¢ | $53 | 0xca4927… |
| 08-17 07:38:48 | Insistent-Pollution 0xd2c3…77bd | No | BUY | 54 | 98¢ | $53 | 0xca4927… |
| 08-16 13:46:13 | (anonymous) 0xe9dc…4e23 | No | BUY | 21 | 98¢ | $21 | 0x9161e7… |
| 08-16 13:46:13 | (anonymous) 0xee1d…cb8d | No | BUY | 59 | 98¢ | $58 | 0x9161e7… |
| 08-16 13:46:13 | (anonymous) 0x7081…a320 | No | SELL | 1,146 | 98¢ | $1,126 | 0x9161e7… |
| 08-16 13:46:13 | (anonymous) 0xb308…9a32 | No | BUY | 77 | 98¢ | $76 | 0x9161e7… |
| 08-16 13:46:13 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 966 | 2¢ | $16 | 0x9161e7… |
| 08-16 13:46:13 | (anonymous) 0x76a1…6ee4 | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x9161e7… |
| 08-16 13:43:03 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 941 | 98¢ | $925 | 0x63d815… |
| 08-16 13:43:03 | Earnest-Salami 0xda04…8e15 | No | SELL | 1,171 | 98¢ | $1,151 | 0x63d815… |
| 08-16 13:43:03 | (anonymous) 0xe9dc…4e23 | No | BUY | 75 | 98¢ | $74 | 0x63d815… |
| 08-16 13:43:03 | Humongous-Organ 0x494e…565e | No | BUY | 155 | 98¢ | $152 | 0x63d815… |
| 08-16 13:40:28 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 2,442 | 98¢ | $2,401 | 0x296b7d… |
| 08-16 13:40:28 | (anonymous) 0x599e…c088 | No | SELL | 2,442 | 98¢ | $2,401 | 0x296b7d… |
| 08-16 13:35:12 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 1,676 | 98¢ | $1,648 | 0xe596d1… |
| 08-16 13:35:12 | (anonymous) 0x2765…2775 | No | SELL | 1,676 | 98¢ | $1,648 | 0xe596d1… |
| 08-16 08:29:18 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 420 | 98¢ | $413 | 0x5e22d9… |
| 08-16 08:29:18 | (anonymous) 0x60a8…d335 | No | SELL | 420 | 98¢ | $413 | 0x5e22d9… |
| 08-16 05:36:13 | (anonymous) 0x33c7…2ccf | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x60d593… |
| 08-16 05:36:13 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x60d593… |
| 08-16 05:29:03 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x09fb49… |
| 08-16 05:29:03 | Healthy-Subsidence 0x5a1b…2e74 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x09fb49… |
| 08-15 15:29:03 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xc58df2… |
| 08-15 15:29:03 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xc58df2… |
| 08-15 15:13:07 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x0d16e1… |
| 08-15 15:13:07 | (anonymous) 0x0232…6dd2 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x0d16e1… |
| 08-15 13:30:04 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | SELL | 47 | 98¢ | $46 | 0xf16b97… |
| 08-15 13:30:04 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 47 | 98¢ | $46 | 0xf16b97… |
| 08-15 10:51:37 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | BUY | 47 | 98¢ | $46 | 0xa79d3e… |
| 08-15 10:51:37 | (anonymous) 0x0232…6dd2 | No | SELL | 47 | 98¢ | $46 | 0xa79d3e… |
| 08-15 07:27:55 | Worst-Diplomacy 0xa163…3ccb | No | BUY | 71 | 98¢ | $70 | 0x7a54e6… |
| 08-15 07:27:55 | (anonymous) 0x0232…6dd2 | No | SELL | 71 | 98¢ | $70 | 0x7a54e6… |
| 08-15 06:14:13 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | SELL | 45 | 98¢ | $44 | 0xc7311e… |
| 08-15 06:14:13 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 45 | 98¢ | $44 | 0xc7311e… |
| 08-15 06:12:25 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | BUY | 45 | 98¢ | $44 | 0xc4e90b… |
| 08-15 06:12:25 | (anonymous) 0x0232…6dd2 | No | SELL | 45 | 98¢ | $44 | 0xc4e90b… |
| 08-15 02:07:57 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x674242… |
| 08-15 02:07:57 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x674242… |
| 08-15 01:29:22 | (anonymous) 0x0232…6dd2 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x2f62ea… |
| 08-15 01:29:22 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x2f62ea… |
| 08-15 01:21:12 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x5aef0f… |
| 08-15 01:21:12 | Filthy-Expansionism 0xd67d…8b23 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x5aef0f… |
| 08-14 23:56:48 | Disloyal-Objection 0xfc4b…8a14 | No | BUY | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0x0c36b9… |
| 08-14 23:56:48 | (anonymous) 0x0232…6dd2 | No | SELL | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0x0c36b9… |
| 08-14 23:42:28 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0xcefe2a… |
| 08-14 23:42:28 | Fluid-Enemy 0x5c33…783c | No | SELL | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0xcefe2a… |
| 08-14 21:20:19 | (anonymous) 0x60a8…d335 | No | SELL | 1,447 | 98¢ | $1,423 | 0xa588a9… |
| 08-14 21:20:19 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 1,447 | 98¢ | $1,423 | 0xa588a9… |
| 08-14 20:32:15 | (anonymous) 0x0232…6dd2 | No | SELL | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0x9c3f86… |
| 08-14 20:32:15 | Fluid-Enemy 0x5c33…783c | No | BUY | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0x9c3f86… |
| 08-14 20:18:01 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x2c4e9e… |
| 08-14 20:18:01 | Tricky-Poetry 0x74f5…0f06 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x2c4e9e… |
| 08-14 19:56:34 | Enormous-Mansion 0xed7a…3119 | No | SELL | 7 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x3e9a3b… |
| 08-14 19:56:34 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 7 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x3e9a3b… |
| 08-14 18:51:12 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 7 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x3ad455… |
| 08-14 18:51:12 | Untimely-Diction 0x8300…9b91 | No | SELL | 7 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x3ad455… |
| 08-14 17:07:10 | (anonymous) 0x0232…6dd2 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x725607… |
| 08-14 17:07:10 | Tricky-Poetry 0x74f5…0f06 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x725607… |
| 08-14 17:04:16 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 2 | 98¢ | $2 | 0xea00f5… |
| 08-14 17:04:16 | Minty-Crust 0x2c38…a15a | No | SELL | 2 | 98¢ | $2 | 0xea00f5… |
| 08-14 16:55:54 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x5dd5da… |