Realized P&L
-$3.95K
Unrealized P&L
+$11.9K
Hit rate
54.4%
Resolved
90
Trades
57,555
lifetime
Volume
$1.72M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$30
Open exposure
$557.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-05
last 11-03 01:03
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 35 days
Categories
Other
60%
49%
-$3,107
Politics
32%
40%
-$1,154
Crypto
4%
0%
-$704
Tech
2%
0%
-$130
Sports
2%
83%
+$1,146
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
40 active days in 12wk
• peak 321 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | +48,842 | $46,423 | 98¢ | $47.9K | +$1,467 | 09-06 15:15 | |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | +38,958 | $38,350 | 99¢ | $38.4K | +$82 | 09-06 08:05 | |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | +33,114 | $32,724 | 100¢ | $33.1K | +$340 | 09-04 22:11 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | +31,000 | $30,532 | 99¢ | $30.6K | +$19 | 09-07 15:16 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | +28,500 | $24,666 | 90¢ | $25.8K | +$1,126 | 08-22 16:16 | |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | +25,298 | $25,161 | 100¢ | $25.3K | +$99 | 08-26 15:12 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +24,707 | $23,888 | 98¢ | $24.3K | +$362 | 09-08 01:28 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | +24,396 | $23,328 | 98¢ | $24.0K | +$629 | 09-08 01:27 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | +24,309 | $23,140 | 98¢ | $23.9K | +$718 | 08-31 01:25 | |
| Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | +22,887 | $22,515 | 100¢ | $22.9K | +$338 | 09-06 17:10 | |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | +23,385 | $22,850 | 97¢ | $22.8K | -$97 | 08-31 13:50 | |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | +22,812 | $22,567 | 99¢ | $22.6K | +$63 | 09-07 04:53 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | +19,800 | $19,001 | 96¢ | $19.0K | +$36 | 09-06 04:19 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | +19,356 | $15,077 | 86¢ | $16.7K | +$1,666 | 09-08 01:30 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | +16,238 | $14,090 | 92¢ | $14.9K | +$808 | 07-06 02:38 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | +14,894 | $14,424 | 100¢ | $14.9K | +$432 | 06-29 22:59 | |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | +15,107 | $14,875 | 98¢ | $14.8K | -$92 | 09-08 02:19 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | +16,290 | $14,265 | 88¢ | $14.3K | +$63 | 08-06 14:54 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | +15,505 | $12,617 | 90¢ | $13.9K | +$1,261 | 09-06 11:24 | |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | +13,599 | $13,411 | 99¢ | $13.4K | +$38 | 08-24 03:31 | |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | +13,791 | $12,820 | 95¢ | $13.0K | +$219 | 09-08 02:20 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | No | +12,539 | $10,934 | 98¢ | $12.3K | +$1,335 | 09-03 11:43 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +11,874 | $10,233 | 82¢ | $9.8K | -$437 | 09-08 02:20 | |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | +9,639 | $9,139 | 95¢ | $9.1K | +$4 | 09-06 21:43 | |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | No | +9,072 | $8,658 | 98¢ | $8.9K | +$273 | 09-02 17:03 | |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | +9,000 | $8,887 | 98¢ | $8.8K | -$53 | 08-23 16:54 | |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | +8,688 | $8,599 | 100¢ | $8.7K | +$67 | 09-07 04:38 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | +8,219 | $7,667 | 97¢ | $8.0K | +$326 | 06-30 16:32 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | No | +8,256 | $7,440 | 94¢ | $7.8K | +$362 | 08-26 01:35 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | +8,055 | $7,366 | 97¢ | $7.8K | +$427 | 09-04 02:22 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 2,327 | $108.4K | 220,099 | 3,272 | +216,828 | No | +$74 | 09-08 02:55 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | 1,107 | $74.8K | 161,091 | 12,602 | +148,489 | No | -$182 | 09-08 06:55 |
| Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? | 986 | $72.9K | 151,700 | 0 | +151,700 | No | +$57 | 07-24 15:38 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 994 | $63.5K | 127,539 | 515 | +127,024 | No | +$61 | 09-08 02:43 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 239 | $52.0K | 104,000 | 0 | +104,000 | No | +$18 | 07-28 01:35 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 2,134 | $49.4K | 104,840 | 7,155 | +97,685 | open | — | 09-08 03:45 |
| Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? | 1,029 | $41.3K | 82,032 | 0 | +82,032 | No | +$23 | 07-27 10:16 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 902 | $41.1K | 87,329 | 0 | +87,329 | No | -$1,962 | 07-22 10:50 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 383 | $39.2K | 88,908 | 10,992 | +77,917 | open | — | 09-08 03:53 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 423 | $36.9K | 78,711 | 5,069 | +73,642 | No | -$19 | 07-28 01:34 |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 597 | $34.4K | 70,351 | 4,123 | +66,228 | open | — | 09-08 02:55 |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 1,196 | $33.5K | 73,152 | 7,383 | +65,769 | No | -$254 | 09-11 06:41 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? | 317 | $33.3K | 80,528 | 14,193 | +66,335 | No | -$79 | 07-28 01:38 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 225 | $31.0K | 62,451 | 451 | +62,000 | open | — | 09-08 02:53 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | 251 | $29.0K | 60,376 | 3,376 | +57,000 | open | — | 09-10 10:06 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | 294 | $27.6K | 57,000 | 0 | +57,000 | No | +$18 | 06-28 13:42 |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 463 | $25.3K | 56,573 | 5,977 | +50,597 | open | — | 09-08 02:53 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | 3,220 | $25.2K | 52,803 | 4,105 | +48,699 | open | — | 09-10 05:50 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 506 | $24.9K | 52,115 | 2,701 | +49,414 | open | — | 09-08 03:54 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | 3,699 | $24.5K | 50,748 | 2,131 | +48,617 | open | — | 09-08 02:56 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 152 | $23.4K | 48,385 | 1,615 | +46,770 | open | — | 09-08 03:56 |
| Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 468 | $22.9K | 48,943 | 3,168 | +45,775 | open | — | 09-08 02:56 |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 198 | $22.8K | 48,001 | 2,377 | +45,624 | open | — | 09-08 03:57 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | 383 | $20.6K | 43,250 | 4,537 | +38,713 | open | — | 09-08 02:57 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 383 | $19.9K | 41,127 | 1,527 | +39,600 | open | — | 09-08 02:43 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 274 | $19.1K | 34,165 | 1,689 | +32,476 | open | — | 07-06 02:38 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | 584 | $18.8K | 41,404 | 3,854 | +37,550 | No | -$24 | 09-08 04:03 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 276 | $18.8K | 32,107 | 1,893 | +30,214 | open | — | 09-08 02:19 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 451 | $18.6K | 44,489 | 11,908 | +32,581 | open | — | 09-08 02:57 |
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | 222 | $18.3K | 41,019 | 4,580 | +36,439 | No | -$18 | 07-29 06:05 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||