Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$224,040
$26 in 24h
Trades
5,170
Unique wallets
1,014
Liquidity
$66,699
Latest YES mid
1¢
Latest NO mid
99¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-20 20:53
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+98.9¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $439
vs crowd: 1% YES on $136.5K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 16 | $77 | $16.0K | $15.9K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 28 | $1.2K | $47.0K | $45.8K |
| 🐟 Fish | 357 | $178 | $50.0K | $49.8K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 613 | $103 | $22.1K | $21.9K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 4 | $439 | — | +$439 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 13 | $466 | $3.5K | $3.0K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 9 | $16 | $10.6K | $10.6K |
| Median | 74 | $18 | $13.3K | $13.3K |
| Below median | 251 | $58 | $43.7K | $43.7K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 10 | $18 | $11.7K | $11.6K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 10 | — | $168 | $168 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $77 | $197 | $121 |
| unranked | 642 | $417 | $51.8K | $51.4K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kind-Nanoparticle 0xad60…97f4 | No | +22,821 | $22,348 | $26,454 | 38 | 06-09 15:10 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +15,215 | $247 | $614 | 266 | 06-20 20:53 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +14,625 | $237 | $237 | 78 | 06-05 22:29 |
| Favorable-Motion 0x152f…a549 | Yes | +12,267 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-05 19:51 |
| Qualified-Citizen 0xa80e…b94b | No | +10,754 | $10,582 | $10,582 | 17 | 06-07 16:11 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +7,091 | $6,978 | $6,978 | 44 | 06-06 01:49 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +6,898 | $123 | $296 | 145 | 06-18 01:05 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | +5,356 | $77 | $77 | 15 | 06-12 19:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | +4,556 | $4,488 | $9,004 | 167 | 06-20 15:36 |
| Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | No | +3,000 | $2,955 | $2,955 | 6 | 06-15 17:57 |
| Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | +3,000 | $42 | $42 | 55 | 06-18 12:32 |
| Haunting-Serial 0x83d4…bce8 | Yes | +3,000 | $42 | $42 | 43 | 06-19 21:54 |
| Haunting-Serial 0x83d4…bce8 | No | +2,885 | $2,842 | $2,842 | 51 | 06-17 16:15 |
| Cultured-Disregard 0x76a1…4652 | Yes | +2,120 | $30 | $30 | 26 | 06-12 10:21 |
| Mediocre-Paradise 0xc30c…6509 | No | +1,770 | $1,744 | $3,225 | 32 | 06-14 17:22 |
| Acclaimed-Teammate 0x6d71…82e5 | No | +1,737 | $1,712 | $1,712 | 1 | 06-02 00:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x024f…5b68 | No | +1,534 | $1,513 | $2,143 | 5 | 06-12 14:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xe279…812b | No | +1,202 | $1,185 | $1,185 | 1 | 06-09 08:30 |
| Blushing-Roast 0x7ad0…19e3 | Yes | +1,100 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 05-28 10:53 |
| Realistic-Angel 0x1391…055f | No | +1,039 | $1,029 | $3,073 | 7 | 06-06 16:04 |
| Unwilling-Dentist 0x3c2e…9240 | No | +1,012 | $990 | $990 | 1 | 06-01 13:33 |
| Paltry-Sentiment 0x091e…84bc | No | +710 | $700 | $700 | 3 | 06-06 08:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x2949…5a71 | No | +508 | $501 | $501 | 1 | 06-08 08:16 |
| Thorny-Packaging 0x30d6…9689 | Yes | +500 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-01 14:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x3bde…ad82 | No | +230 | $227 | $227 | 1 | 06-05 16:28 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +200 | $197 | $197 | 1 | 06-03 14:45 |
| Bossy-Concern 0x723e…3525 | No | +200 | $196 | $196 | 1 | 06-01 09:03 |
| Excellent-Vane 0x5227…867d | No | +199 | $196 | $591 | 4 | 06-10 11:04 |
| Starry-Journalism 0x3ffb…bf28 | No | +193 | $188 | $188 | 1 | 05-28 08:13 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +158 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-02 01:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xc40d…0862 | No | +140 | $138 | $138 | 4 | 06-19 01:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xdb55…85af | Yes | +133 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-18 08:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x9d31…6d8d | No | +132 | $130 | $391 | 7 | 06-10 11:04 |
| Burdensome-Kielbasa 0xf2ab…97a4 | No | +131 | $127 | $1,827 | 19 | 06-01 13:33 |
| Finished-Distinction 0x4ab0…cc8d | No | +122 | $120 | $420 | 11 | 06-18 04:01 |
| Sorrowful-Whale 0x03ed…4927 | No | +106 | $105 | $105 | 1 | 06-11 19:35 |
| Jolly-Vision 0xdf01…c782 | No | +101 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-04 06:57 |
| Nonstop-Erosion 0xf1a2…f1b6 | No | +100 | $99 | $99 | 1 | 06-03 06:50 |
| (anonymous) 0xe3f5…64e6 | No | +100 | $98 | $98 | 3 | 06-18 22:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x27dd…43c3 | No | +100 | $98 | $98 | 2 | 06-19 03:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xa553…275f | No | +100 | $98 | $98 | 1 | 05-30 21:28 |
| Pleased-Chaplain 0xc2ff…ce1c | No | +100 | $99 | $99 | 2 | 06-02 15:37 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-20 20:53:13 | Variable-Handover 0x411f…d6a3 | No | SELL | 54 | 98¢ | $53 | 0x143973… |
| 06-20 20:53:13 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 54 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x143973… |
| 06-20 20:46:41 | Regal-Tanker 0x9aee…d71e | No | SELL | 54 | 98¢ | $53 | 0xf5a8be… |
| 06-20 20:46:41 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 54 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xf5a8be… |
| 06-20 20:40:46 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 48 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x9a816c… |
| 06-20 20:40:46 | Snappy-Grand 0x1795…b444 | No | SELL | 48 | 98¢ | $47 | 0x9a816c… |
| 06-20 20:40:38 | Feline-Jumper 0x888c…659c | No | SELL | 40 | 98¢ | $39 | 0x4be52c… |
| 06-20 20:40:38 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x4be52c… |
| 06-20 20:37:04 | Chubby-Expert 0x7c85…3359 | No | SELL | 19 | 98¢ | $18 | 0x086c74… |
| 06-20 20:37:04 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 19 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x086c74… |
| 06-20 20:27:20 | Fearful-Pause 0x8393…3e6f | No | BUY | 49 | 99¢ | $48 | 0xdbd814… |
| 06-20 20:27:20 | (anonymous) 0xf4c4…cab1 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xdbd814… |
| 06-20 20:27:20 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xdbd814… |
| 06-20 20:27:20 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 43 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xdbd814… |
| 06-20 19:10:35 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 54 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x8ae56f… |
| 06-20 19:10:35 | Variable-Handover 0x411f…d6a3 | No | BUY | 54 | 99¢ | $53 | 0x8ae56f… |
| 06-20 18:56:07 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 54 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x504c84… |
| 06-20 18:56:07 | Regal-Tanker 0x9aee…d71e | No | BUY | 54 | 99¢ | $53 | 0x504c84… |
| 06-20 18:44:04 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 48 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x2edbe3… |
| 06-20 18:44:04 | Snappy-Grand 0x1795…b444 | No | BUY | 48 | 99¢ | $47 | 0x2edbe3… |
| 06-20 18:43:53 | Feline-Jumper 0x888c…659c | No | BUY | 40 | 99¢ | $39 | 0x3d26eb… |
| 06-20 18:43:53 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 40 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x3d26eb… |
| 06-20 18:35:25 | (anonymous) 0x76a1…6ee4 | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0xed748e… |
| 06-20 18:35:25 | Chubby-Expert 0x7c85…3359 | No | BUY | 19 | 98¢ | $18 | 0xed748e… |
| 06-20 18:35:25 | (anonymous) 0xe01f…4af7 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0xed748e… |
| 06-20 15:40:11 | Rough-Dimple 0x18ab…bae4 | No | SELL | 1,155 | 98¢ | $1,137 | 0x2ceb37… |
| 06-20 15:40:11 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 1,155 | 2¢ | $18 | 0x2ceb37… |
| 06-20 15:36:34 | Rough-Dimple 0x18ab…bae4 | No | SELL | 95 | 98¢ | $93 | 0x9ab911… |
| 06-20 15:36:34 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 25 | 98¢ | $24 | 0x9ab911… |
| 06-20 15:36:34 | (anonymous) 0xe01f…4af7 | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x9ab911… |
| 06-20 15:36:34 | (anonymous) 0x42a1…5c05 | No | BUY | 60 | 98¢ | $59 | 0x9ab911… |
| 06-20 15:14:28 | Innocent-Pard 0x9bc6…f11c | No | SELL | 55 | 98¢ | $54 | 0xbffd73… |
| 06-20 15:14:28 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 55 | 98¢ | $54 | 0xbffd73… |
| 06-20 15:14:14 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 48 | 98¢ | $47 | 0x618f97… |
| 06-20 15:14:14 | Upset-Strategy 0x5a84…8a3f | No | SELL | 48 | 98¢ | $47 | 0x618f97… |
| 06-20 14:31:52 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 46 | 99¢ | $46 | 0x0d368e… |
| 06-20 14:31:52 | Educated-Stepaunt 0xb4dc…585e | No | SELL | 46 | 99¢ | $46 | 0x0d368e… |
| 06-20 14:03:38 | Innocent-Pard 0x9bc6…f11c | No | BUY | 55 | 99¢ | $54 | 0x7b10e3… |
| 06-20 14:03:38 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 55 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x7b10e3… |
| 06-20 14:03:17 | Upset-Strategy 0x5a84…8a3f | No | BUY | 48 | 99¢ | $47 | 0xef5da0… |
| 06-20 14:03:17 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 48 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xef5da0… |
| 06-20 12:27:31 | Educated-Stepaunt 0xb4dc…585e | No | BUY | 46 | 99¢ | $46 | 0xc76fb7… |
| 06-20 12:27:31 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 46 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xc76fb7… |
| 06-20 12:04:52 | Happy-Go-Lucky-Reception 0x6fb9…e0d3 | No | SELL | 52 | 99¢ | $51 | 0xde8229… |
| 06-20 12:04:52 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 26 | 98¢ | $26 | 0xde8229… |
| 06-20 12:04:52 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 26 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xde8229… |
| 06-20 11:59:40 | Unfolded-Interpretation 0x3c9d…acf3 | No | SELL | 44 | 98¢ | $43 | 0xaf2854… |
| 06-20 11:59:40 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 44 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xaf2854… |
| 06-20 11:57:46 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 56 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xb6721d… |
| 06-20 11:57:46 | Adored-Perfume 0xde40…8d66 | No | SELL | 56 | 98¢ | $55 | 0xb6721d… |
| 06-20 11:37:26 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 48 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x28ca96… |
| 06-20 11:37:26 | (anonymous) 0x1f89…ff27 | No | BUY | 48 | 99¢ | $48 | 0x28ca96… |
| 06-20 10:45:37 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 52 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x83b92e… |
| 06-20 10:45:37 | Happy-Go-Lucky-Reception 0x6fb9…e0d3 | No | BUY | 52 | 99¢ | $51 | 0x83b92e… |
| 06-20 10:35:47 | Unfolded-Interpretation 0x3c9d…acf3 | No | BUY | 44 | 99¢ | $43 | 0xa1f29e… |
| 06-20 10:35:47 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 44 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xa1f29e… |
| 06-20 10:29:55 | Adored-Perfume 0xde40…8d66 | No | BUY | 56 | 99¢ | $55 | 0x09af44… |
| 06-20 10:29:55 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 56 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x09af44… |
| 06-20 10:05:13 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 25 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xa64c53… |
| 06-20 10:05:13 | (anonymous) 0xbdfe…e82f | No | BUY | 25 | 99¢ | $24 | 0xa64c53… |
| 06-20 09:17:20 | Emotional-Quote 0x7557…e9bd | No | SELL | 57 | 98¢ | $56 | 0x48c92b… |
| 06-20 09:17:20 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 57 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x48c92b… |
| 06-20 09:05:41 | Showy-Sunrise 0x4c47…e2f7 | No | SELL | 58 | 98¢ | $57 | 0x422791… |
| 06-20 09:05:41 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 58 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x422791… |
| 06-20 08:48:31 | Exhausted-Eicosanoid 0xab14…a6f0 | No | SELL | 50 | 98¢ | $50 | 0x8e29b1… |
| 06-20 08:48:31 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x8e29b1… |
| 06-20 08:46:23 | Subtle-Worship 0x78a3…c2d4 | No | SELL | 61 | 98¢ | $60 | 0xfd9e8a… |
| 06-20 08:46:23 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 61 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xfd9e8a… |
| 06-20 08:43:08 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 52 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xca03e0… |
| 06-20 08:43:08 | Smoggy-Howard 0xf00e…dd55 | No | SELL | 52 | 99¢ | $51 | 0xca03e0… |
| 06-20 08:34:43 | Basic-Spruce 0xd16a…3167 | No | SELL | 46 | 98¢ | $45 | 0xad2cc4… |
| 06-20 08:34:43 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 46 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xad2cc4… |
| 06-20 08:34:37 | Broken-Sneeze 0x0f07…1990 | No | SELL | 42 | 98¢ | $41 | 0xbb1a02… |
| 06-20 08:34:37 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 42 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xbb1a02… |
| 06-20 08:27:22 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 52 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x549d80… |
| 06-20 08:27:22 | Enormous-Feather 0x92e5…8174 | No | SELL | 52 | 99¢ | $51 | 0x549d80… |
| 06-20 08:19:19 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 57 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x1b47ed… |
| 06-20 08:19:19 | Emotional-Quote 0x7557…e9bd | No | BUY | 57 | 99¢ | $56 | 0x1b47ed… |
| 06-20 07:54:32 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 58 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x140bbb… |
| 06-20 07:54:32 | Showy-Sunrise 0x4c47…e2f7 | No | BUY | 58 | 99¢ | $57 | 0x140bbb… |
| 06-20 07:36:25 | (anonymous) 0x45fc…ffb8 | No | BUY | 27 | 99¢ | $27 | 0xa4cdec… |
| 06-20 07:36:25 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 27 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xa4cdec… |
| 06-20 07:15:50 | Exhausted-Eicosanoid 0xab14…a6f0 | No | BUY | 50 | 99¢ | $50 | 0x298e8f… |
| 06-20 07:15:50 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 50 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x298e8f… |
| 06-20 07:09:46 | Subtle-Worship 0x78a3…c2d4 | No | BUY | 61 | 99¢ | $60 | 0x4bb1cd… |
| 06-20 07:09:46 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 61 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x4bb1cd… |
| 06-20 07:01:47 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 52 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x64984f… |
| 06-20 07:01:47 | Smoggy-Howard 0xf00e…dd55 | No | BUY | 52 | 99¢ | $51 | 0x64984f… |
| 06-20 06:42:25 | Basic-Spruce 0xd16a…3167 | No | BUY | 46 | 99¢ | $45 | 0xf7d0cf… |
| 06-20 06:42:25 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 46 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xf7d0cf… |
| 06-20 06:42:16 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 42 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xf579a1… |
| 06-20 06:42:16 | Broken-Sneeze 0x0f07…1990 | No | BUY | 42 | 99¢ | $41 | 0xf579a1… |
| 06-20 06:26:01 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 52 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x54a911… |
| 06-20 06:26:01 | Enormous-Feather 0x92e5…8174 | No | BUY | 52 | 99¢ | $51 | 0x54a911… |
| 06-20 06:18:52 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 52 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xa3b38c… |
| 06-20 06:18:52 | Advanced-Jumper 0xcc19…cf8e | No | SELL | 52 | 98¢ | $51 | 0xa3b38c… |
| 06-20 06:09:44 | (anonymous) 0x4b9b…8260 | No | BUY | 22 | 99¢ | $22 | 0xb9908f… |
| 06-20 06:09:44 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 22 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xb9908f… |
| 06-20 06:08:11 | (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | SELL | 52 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1ebbc0… |
| 06-20 06:08:11 | Smoggy-Howard 0xf00e…dd55 | No | SELL | 52 | 98¢ | $51 | 0x1ebbc0… |