Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$225,988
$26 in 24h
Trades
5,254
Unique wallets
1,024
Liquidity
$66,699
Latest YES mid
1¢
Latest NO mid
99¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-21 11:35
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+98.9¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $439
vs crowd: 1% YES on $137.7K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 16 | $77 | $16.0K | $15.9K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 28 | $1.2K | $47.0K | $45.8K |
| 🐟 Fish | 367 | $202 | $51.1K | $50.9K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 613 | $103 | $22.1K | $21.9K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 4 | $439 | — | +$439 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 14 | $489 | $14.1K | $13.6K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 8 | $16 | $15 | +$1 |
| Median | 75 | $18 | $13.4K | $13.4K |
| Below median | 260 | $58 | $44.8K | $44.8K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 10 | $18 | $11.7K | $11.6K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 10 | — | $168 | $168 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $77 | $197 | $121 |
| unranked | 642 | $417 | $51.8K | $51.4K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kind-Nanoparticle 0xad60…97f4 | No | +22,821 | $22,348 | $26,454 | 38 | 06-09 15:10 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +14,625 | $237 | $237 | 78 | 06-05 22:29 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +14,466 | $236 | $625 | 282 | 06-21 09:39 |
| Favorable-Motion 0x152f…a549 | Yes | +12,267 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-05 19:51 |
| Qualified-Citizen 0xa80e…b94b | No | +10,754 | $10,582 | $10,582 | 17 | 06-07 16:11 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +7,091 | $6,978 | $6,978 | 44 | 06-06 01:49 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +6,898 | $123 | $296 | 145 | 06-18 01:05 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | +5,356 | $77 | $77 | 15 | 06-12 19:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | +4,556 | $4,488 | $9,004 | 167 | 06-20 15:36 |
| Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | No | +3,000 | $2,955 | $2,955 | 6 | 06-15 17:57 |
| Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | +3,000 | $42 | $42 | 55 | 06-18 12:32 |
| Haunting-Serial 0x83d4…bce8 | Yes | +3,000 | $42 | $42 | 43 | 06-19 21:54 |
| Haunting-Serial 0x83d4…bce8 | No | +2,885 | $2,842 | $2,842 | 51 | 06-17 16:15 |
| Cultured-Disregard 0x76a1…4652 | Yes | +2,120 | $30 | $30 | 26 | 06-12 10:21 |
| Mediocre-Paradise 0xc30c…6509 | No | +1,770 | $1,744 | $3,225 | 32 | 06-14 17:22 |
| Acclaimed-Teammate 0x6d71…82e5 | No | +1,737 | $1,712 | $1,712 | 1 | 06-02 00:34 |
| Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | +1,727 | $24 | $24 | 27 | 06-21 11:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x024f…5b68 | No | +1,534 | $1,513 | $2,143 | 5 | 06-12 14:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xe279…812b | No | +1,202 | $1,185 | $1,185 | 1 | 06-09 08:30 |
| Blushing-Roast 0x7ad0…19e3 | Yes | +1,100 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 05-28 10:53 |
| Realistic-Angel 0x1391…055f | No | +1,039 | $1,029 | $3,073 | 7 | 06-06 16:04 |
| Unwilling-Dentist 0x3c2e…9240 | No | +1,012 | $990 | $990 | 1 | 06-01 13:33 |
| Paltry-Sentiment 0x091e…84bc | No | +710 | $700 | $700 | 3 | 06-06 08:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x2949…5a71 | No | +508 | $501 | $501 | 1 | 06-08 08:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x3bde…ad82 | No | +230 | $227 | $227 | 1 | 06-05 16:28 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +200 | $197 | $197 | 1 | 06-03 14:45 |
| Bossy-Concern 0x723e…3525 | No | +200 | $196 | $196 | 1 | 06-01 09:03 |
| Excellent-Vane 0x5227…867d | No | +199 | $196 | $591 | 4 | 06-10 11:04 |
| Starry-Journalism 0x3ffb…bf28 | No | +193 | $188 | $188 | 1 | 05-28 08:13 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +158 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-02 01:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xc40d…0862 | No | +140 | $138 | $138 | 4 | 06-19 01:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xdb55…85af | Yes | +133 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-18 08:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x9d31…6d8d | No | +132 | $130 | $391 | 7 | 06-10 11:04 |
| Burdensome-Kielbasa 0xf2ab…97a4 | No | +131 | $127 | $1,827 | 19 | 06-01 13:33 |
| Finished-Distinction 0x4ab0…cc8d | No | +122 | $120 | $420 | 11 | 06-18 04:01 |
| Sorrowful-Whale 0x03ed…4927 | No | +106 | $105 | $105 | 1 | 06-11 19:35 |
| Jolly-Vision 0xdf01…c782 | No | +101 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-04 06:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x6c2b…91e7 | No | +100 | $98 | $98 | 1 | 06-19 03:26 |
| Multicolored-Billing 0x69af…0a19 | No | +100 | $99 | $99 | 1 | 06-02 15:37 |
| Nonstop-Erosion 0xf1a2…f1b6 | No | +100 | $99 | $99 | 1 | 06-03 06:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x9fa0…c7dd | No | +100 | $99 | $99 | 3 | 06-19 03:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xe3f5…64e6 | No | +100 | $98 | $98 | 3 | 06-18 22:49 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 11:35:26 | Dirty-Spray 0x8891…8fed | No | BUY | 46 | 99¢ | $46 | 0xfa4406… |
| 06-21 11:35:26 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 46 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xfa4406… |
| 06-21 11:18:04 | This-Tailspin 0x32ad…5b8c | No | BUY | 44 | 99¢ | $43 | 0xbce61b… |
| 06-21 11:18:04 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xbce61b… |
| 06-21 11:13:10 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x0a603c… |
| 06-21 11:13:10 | Bowed-Transparency 0x6833…9c1e | No | BUY | 52 | 99¢ | $51 | 0x0a603c… |
| 06-21 11:07:28 | Gripping-Conservation 0x0283…5e6a | No | BUY | 52 | 99¢ | $51 | 0x94f2de… |
| 06-21 11:07:28 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x94f2de… |
| 06-21 10:53:02 | Well-Made-Cattle 0x1075…4be0 | No | BUY | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0x4acadd… |
| 06-21 10:53:02 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x4acadd… |
| 06-21 10:41:11 | Trim-Upstairs 0xdabb…f07a | No | BUY | 41 | 99¢ | $41 | 0xfd348b… |
| 06-21 10:41:11 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xfd348b… |
| 06-21 10:38:20 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 46 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xc314bc… |
| 06-21 10:38:20 | Sore-Willow 0xf086…d3f2 | No | BUY | 46 | 99¢ | $45 | 0xc314bc… |
| 06-21 10:35:59 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 54 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x338106… |
| 06-21 10:35:59 | Tiny-Impress 0x04c0…5d2e | No | BUY | 54 | 99¢ | $53 | 0x338106… |
| 06-21 10:32:41 | Spiffy-Elm 0xb83e…abf1 | No | BUY | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0x409c85… |
| 06-21 10:32:41 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x409c85… |
| 06-21 10:26:29 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 46 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xa6f422… |
| 06-21 10:26:29 | Deserted-Textbook 0x752e…2482 | No | BUY | 46 | 99¢ | $46 | 0xa6f422… |
| 06-21 09:39:50 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 48 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xcd2807… |
| 06-21 09:39:50 | Confused-Euphonium 0xbeb2…0844 | No | SELL | 48 | 99¢ | $47 | 0xcd2807… |
| 06-21 09:24:08 | Insidious-Remark 0x04ab…0104 | No | SELL | 48 | 98¢ | $47 | 0x7d885a… |
| 06-21 09:24:08 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 48 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x7d885a… |
| 06-21 09:12:53 | Euphoric-Teacher 0x0773…77b9 | No | SELL | 27 | 98¢ | $26 | 0xaf03c3… |
| 06-21 09:12:53 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 27 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xaf03c3… |
| 06-21 08:53:59 | Best-Tabletop 0xf4be…efbb | No | SELL | 52 | 98¢ | $51 | 0xb63f23… |
| 06-21 08:53:59 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 52 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xb63f23… |
| 06-21 08:40:14 | Confused-Euphonium 0xbeb2…0844 | No | BUY | 48 | 99¢ | $47 | 0x80076f… |
| 06-21 08:40:14 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 48 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x80076f… |
| 06-21 08:06:16 | Insidious-Remark 0x04ab…0104 | No | BUY | 48 | 99¢ | $47 | 0x9ced22… |
| 06-21 08:06:16 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 48 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x9ced22… |
| 06-21 07:42:47 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 27 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xac1646… |
| 06-21 07:42:47 | Euphoric-Teacher 0x0773…77b9 | No | BUY | 27 | 99¢ | $26 | 0xac1646… |
| 06-21 07:01:41 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x908bc3… |
| 06-21 07:01:41 | Best-Tabletop 0xf4be…efbb | No | BUY | 52 | 99¢ | $52 | 0x908bc3… |
| 06-21 06:35:44 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 42 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xfaa8a5… |
| 06-21 06:35:44 | Repulsive-Standing 0x32d3…92a9 | No | SELL | 42 | 98¢ | $42 | 0xfaa8a5… |
| 06-21 06:33:41 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 46 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x4d11df… |
| 06-21 06:33:41 | Conscious-Gigantism 0x7db3…a090 | No | SELL | 46 | 98¢ | $46 | 0x4d11df… |
| 06-21 06:11:38 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 51 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x5cd157… |
| 06-21 06:11:38 | Neglected-Cheddar 0xfe75…33a0 | No | SELL | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0x5cd157… |
| 06-21 06:03:08 | Wobbly-Biosphere 0x7c98…a0df | No | SELL | 38 | 99¢ | $37 | 0x74c3ba… |
| 06-21 06:03:08 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 38 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x74c3ba… |
| 06-21 05:57:49 | Known-Chard 0xa9ae…9ed7 | No | SELL | 51 | 98¢ | $51 | 0x56c086… |
| 06-21 05:57:49 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 51 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x56c086… |
| 06-21 05:37:47 | Repulsive-Standing 0x32d3…92a9 | No | BUY | 42 | 99¢ | $42 | 0x2e58e4… |
| 06-21 05:37:47 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 42 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x2e58e4… |
| 06-21 05:33:20 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 46 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xc40ed7… |
| 06-21 05:33:20 | Conscious-Gigantism 0x7db3…a090 | No | BUY | 46 | 99¢ | $46 | 0xc40ed7… |
| 06-21 04:41:25 | Neglected-Cheddar 0xfe75…33a0 | No | BUY | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0xde9218… |
| 06-21 04:41:25 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xde9218… |
| 06-21 04:20:35 | Wobbly-Biosphere 0x7c98…a0df | No | BUY | 38 | 99¢ | $37 | 0x619452… |
| 06-21 04:20:35 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 38 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x619452… |
| 06-21 04:10:10 | Known-Chard 0xa9ae…9ed7 | No | BUY | 51 | 99¢ | $51 | 0x9345e1… |
| 06-21 04:10:10 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x9345e1… |
| 06-21 03:09:05 | Scarce-Extremist 0x3849…5c53 | No | SELL | 52 | 98¢ | $52 | 0x703991… |
| 06-21 03:09:05 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 52 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x703991… |
| 06-21 03:02:26 | Inconsequential-Stimulation 0x998a…ffbd | No | SELL | 44 | 99¢ | $44 | 0xbfd5aa… |
| 06-21 03:02:26 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 44 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xbfd5aa… |
| 06-21 02:50:17 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 57 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xbe2397… |
| 06-21 02:50:17 | Mixed-Injustice 0x7930…45e4 | No | SELL | 57 | 98¢ | $56 | 0xbe2397… |
| 06-21 02:43:55 | Worldly-Ladle 0x2b09…1c00 | No | SELL | 46 | 98¢ | $46 | 0x8d6074… |
| 06-21 02:43:55 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 46 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x8d6074… |
| 06-21 01:38:43 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xa70914… |
| 06-21 01:38:43 | Scarce-Extremist 0x3849…5c53 | No | BUY | 52 | 99¢ | $52 | 0xa70914… |
| 06-21 01:22:44 | Inconsequential-Stimulation 0x998a…ffbd | No | BUY | 44 | 99¢ | $44 | 0x07758d… |
| 06-21 01:22:44 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x07758d… |
| 06-21 00:58:40 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 57 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x5ee204… |
| 06-21 00:58:40 | Mixed-Injustice 0x7930…45e4 | No | BUY | 57 | 99¢ | $56 | 0x5ee204… |
| 06-21 00:43:59 | Worldly-Ladle 0x2b09…1c00 | No | BUY | 46 | 99¢ | $46 | 0x81f9a1… |
| 06-21 00:43:59 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 46 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x81f9a1… |
| 06-21 00:17:56 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 51 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x9da51c… |
| 06-21 00:17:56 | Realistic-Notepad 0xea9f…f4df | No | SELL | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0x9da51c… |
| 06-21 00:11:37 | Green-Everybody 0x78c3…9924 | No | SELL | 46 | 98¢ | $46 | 0xc0a22a… |
| 06-21 00:11:37 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 46 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc0a22a… |
| 06-20 23:01:50 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x1e2a0e… |
| 06-20 23:01:50 | Realistic-Notepad 0xea9f…f4df | No | BUY | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0x1e2a0e… |
| 06-20 22:48:08 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 46 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xb26d98… |
| 06-20 22:48:08 | Green-Everybody 0x78c3…9924 | No | BUY | 46 | 99¢ | $46 | 0xb26d98… |
| 06-20 22:36:53 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 500 | 1¢ | $7 | 0xd05b54… |
| 06-20 22:36:53 | Thorny-Packaging 0x30d6…9689 | Yes | SELL | 500 | 1¢ | $7 | 0xd05b54… |
| 06-20 21:26:13 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 49 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xaaf2b0… |
| 06-20 21:26:13 | Fearful-Pause 0x8393…3e6f | No | SELL | 49 | 99¢ | $48 | 0xaaf2b0… |
| 06-20 20:53:13 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 54 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x143973… |
| 06-20 20:53:13 | Variable-Handover 0x411f…d6a3 | No | SELL | 54 | 98¢ | $53 | 0x143973… |
| 06-20 20:46:41 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 54 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xf5a8be… |
| 06-20 20:46:41 | Regal-Tanker 0x9aee…d71e | No | SELL | 54 | 98¢ | $53 | 0xf5a8be… |
| 06-20 20:40:46 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 48 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x9a816c… |
| 06-20 20:40:46 | Snappy-Grand 0x1795…b444 | No | SELL | 48 | 98¢ | $47 | 0x9a816c… |
| 06-20 20:40:38 | Feline-Jumper 0x888c…659c | No | SELL | 40 | 98¢ | $39 | 0x4be52c… |
| 06-20 20:40:38 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x4be52c… |
| 06-20 20:37:04 | Chubby-Expert 0x7c85…3359 | No | SELL | 19 | 98¢ | $18 | 0x086c74… |
| 06-20 20:37:04 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 19 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x086c74… |
| 06-20 20:27:20 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xdbd814… |
| 06-20 20:27:20 | Fearful-Pause 0x8393…3e6f | No | BUY | 49 | 99¢ | $48 | 0xdbd814… |
| 06-20 20:27:20 | Intent-Ship 0x517b…fe53 | Yes | BUY | 43 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xdbd814… |
| 06-20 20:27:20 | (anonymous) 0xf4c4…cab1 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xdbd814… |
| 06-20 19:10:35 | Variable-Handover 0x411f…d6a3 | No | BUY | 54 | 99¢ | $53 | 0x8ae56f… |
| 06-20 19:10:35 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 54 | 1¢ | $1 | 0x8ae56f… |