Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$497,067
$26 in 24h
Trades
14,293
Unique wallets
1,600
Liquidity
$66,699
Latest YES mid
1¢
Latest NO mid
99¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 08-04 07:01
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+99.3¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $535
vs crowd: 1% YES on $274.8K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 20 | $77 | $27.1K | $27.0K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 44 | $1.5K | $70.6K | $69.1K |
| 🐟 Fish | 647 | $303 | $109.8K | $109.5K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 889 | $172 | $65.2K | $65.0K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 4 | $535 | — | +$535 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 16 | $660 | $5.5K | $4.9K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 10 | $18 | $10.6K | $10.6K |
| Median | 120 | $63 | $35.5K | $35.4K |
| Below median | 497 | $116 | $86.6K | $86.5K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 8 | $4 | $11.6K | $11.6K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 12 | $2 | $303 | $301 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $77 | $197 | $121 |
| unranked | 932 | $571 | $122.3K | $121.8K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +18,859 | $286 | $879 | 511 | 07-24 08:44 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +14,625 | $237 | $237 | 78 | 06-05 22:29 |
| Qualified-Citizen 0xa80e…b94b | No | +10,754 | $10,582 | $10,582 | 17 | 06-07 16:11 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +8,148 | $134 | $476 | 303 | 07-30 13:42 |
| Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | +7,894 | $7,787 | $7,787 | 29 | 08-04 07:01 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +7,091 | $6,978 | $6,978 | 44 | 06-06 01:49 |
| Haunting-Serial 0x83d4…bce8 | Yes | +7,000 | $96 | $96 | 51 | 07-28 22:55 |
| Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | +6,417 | $89 | $89 | 101 | 08-04 05:24 |
| Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | No | +6,000 | $5,910 | $5,910 | 45 | 06-30 15:25 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | +5,356 | $77 | $77 | 15 | 06-12 19:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x060b…548e | No | +5,071 | $5,010 | $5,010 | 7 | 07-10 03:10 |
| Haunting-Serial 0x83d4…bce8 | No | +4,885 | $4,812 | $4,812 | 89 | 06-24 06:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x0fb4…d31c | No | +3,704 | $3,658 | $8,213 | 54 | 07-11 09:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x4308…dbe7 | No | +3,265 | $3,225 | $4,442 | 14 | 07-16 09:39 |
| Blissful-Skating 0x6d04…6946 | No | +3,196 | $3,154 | $3,154 | 1 | 07-02 06:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x8a63…10b3 | No | +2,494 | $2,459 | $2,459 | 2 | 07-02 03:45 |
| Cultured-Disregard 0x76a1…4652 | Yes | +2,120 | $30 | $30 | 26 | 06-12 10:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | +1,735 | $1,704 | $22,447 | 475 | 07-15 09:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xc4c9…848f | No | +1,449 | $1,430 | $1,430 | 1 | 07-02 06:07 |
| Snappy-Bag 0x878a…4b38 | No | +1,253 | $1,235 | $1,235 | 2 | 07-01 05:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xe279…812b | No | +1,202 | $1,185 | $1,185 | 1 | 06-09 08:30 |
| Paltry-Sentiment 0x091e…84bc | No | +1,199 | $1,183 | $1,183 | 6 | 07-16 22:04 |
| Blushing-Roast 0x7ad0…19e3 | Yes | +1,100 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 05-28 10:53 |
| Phony-Inhibitor 0xb2dc…2bf2 | No | +1,013 | $1,000 | $1,000 | 3 | 07-18 01:43 |
| Extroverted-Pianist 0x6cfc…a5c2 | No | +1,000 | $987 | $987 | 7 | 07-11 11:31 |
| Mediocre-Paradise 0xc30c…6509 | No | +769 | $758 | $8,159 | 69 | 07-20 11:09 |
| Aching-Lament 0x3a03…d3be | No | +675 | $665 | $2,890 | 5 | 07-16 04:39 |
| Oval-Watermelon 0x5e46…ab45 | No | +519 | $513 | $513 | 2 | 07-07 09:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x9caa…60e5 | No | +519 | $512 | $512 | 2 | 07-21 07:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x2949…5a71 | No | +508 | $501 | $501 | 1 | 06-08 08:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xef3c…4245 | No | +502 | $495 | $495 | 1 | 07-17 08:22 |
| (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | +500 | $6 | $63 | 43 | 06-25 13:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x6c8b…645c | Yes | +385 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-05 04:22 |
| Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | +304 | $300 | $300 | 6 | 07-20 11:09 |
| Raw-Tambour 0x0b6f…dd2a | No | +223 | $220 | $260 | 13 | 07-15 09:40 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +200 | $197 | $197 | 1 | 06-03 14:45 |
| Starry-Journalism 0x3ffb…bf28 | No | +193 | $188 | $188 | 1 | 05-28 08:13 |
| Remorseful-Ring 0xe635…0cc7 | No | +155 | $153 | $457 | 5 | 07-14 12:01 |
| Incomplete-Linguistics 0x8cf1…40ad | No | +152 | $150 | $748 | 5 | 07-14 11:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x933a…0ad2 | No | +140 | $138 | $138 | 1 | 08-03 15:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xdb55…85af | Yes | +133 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-18 08:11 |
| Jagged-Employ 0xe356…6f3a | Yes | +110 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-04 06:05 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 07:01:51 | (anonymous) 0xc69b…1134 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xdca92e… |
| 08-04 07:01:51 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xdca92e… |
| 08-04 05:47:51 | Greedy-Juggernaut 0x7e03…cf15 | No | SELL | 35 | 99¢ | $34 | 0xd627c3… |
| 08-04 05:47:51 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 35 | 99¢ | $34 | 0xd627c3… |
| 08-04 05:24:56 | Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | BUY | 20 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x302de9… |
| 08-04 05:24:56 | Greedy-Juggernaut 0x7e03…cf15 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $19 | 0x302de9… |
| 08-04 05:14:57 | Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | BUY | 15 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xfcf6cb… |
| 08-04 05:14:57 | Greedy-Juggernaut 0x7e03…cf15 | No | BUY | 15 | 99¢ | $15 | 0xfcf6cb… |
| 08-04 03:29:11 | Taut-Imprisonment 0x7281…6369 | No | BUY | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0xe1e611… |
| 08-04 03:29:11 | Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xe1e611… |
| 08-03 15:50:20 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 46 | 99¢ | $45 | 0xa48688… |
| 08-03 15:50:20 | Hard-Target 0x28a5…84e9 | No | SELL | 46 | 99¢ | $45 | 0xa48688… |
| 08-03 15:41:45 | Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | BUY | 26 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x6b4813… |
| 08-03 15:41:45 | Hard-Target 0x28a5…84e9 | No | BUY | 26 | 99¢ | $26 | 0x6b4813… |
| 08-03 15:17:30 | Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | BUY | 19 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x29c9ca… |
| 08-03 15:17:30 | Hard-Target 0x28a5…84e9 | No | BUY | 19 | 99¢ | $19 | 0x29c9ca… |
| 08-03 15:05:21 | (anonymous) 0xa63b…cc41 | No | SELL | 100 | 99¢ | $99 | 0xbb1ddd… |
| 08-03 15:05:21 | (anonymous) 0x933a…0ad2 | No | BUY | 140 | 99¢ | $138 | 0xbb1ddd… |
| 08-03 15:05:21 | Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | BUY | 40 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xbb1ddd… |
| 08-03 13:59:18 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0x1fa527… |
| 08-03 13:59:18 | (anonymous) 0x2d91…2b4a | No | SELL | 51 | 99¢ | $50 | 0x1fa527… |
| 08-02 21:00:08 | Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | BUY | 48 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xe980e1… |
| 08-02 21:00:08 | Shabby-Biscuit 0x2c41…3426 | No | BUY | 48 | 99¢ | $47 | 0xe980e1… |
| 08-02 20:09:56 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 334 | 99¢ | $330 | 0xb66105… |
| 08-02 20:09:56 | Lovable-Tent 0x1c3f…05ae | No | SELL | 334 | 99¢ | $330 | 0xb66105… |
| 08-02 13:44:15 | Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | BUY | 248 | 1¢ | $3 | 0xc85892… |
| 08-02 13:44:15 | Icy-Disk 0xa994…19a6 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xc85892… |
| 08-02 13:44:15 | (anonymous) 0x76a1…6ee4 | No | SELL | 17 | 99¢ | $16 | 0xc85892… |
| 08-02 13:44:15 | (anonymous) 0x9052…383a | No | SELL | 64 | 99¢ | $63 | 0xc85892… |
| 08-02 13:44:15 | Lovable-Tent 0x1c3f…05ae | No | BUY | 334 | 99¢ | $330 | 0xc85892… |
| 08-01 13:19:44 | Practical-Mixture 0x4bc5…a968 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x87ffb4… |
| 08-01 13:19:44 | (anonymous) 0x9052…383a | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x87ffb4… |
| 08-01 02:35:54 | (anonymous) 0x12a0…6521 | No | SELL | 36 | 99¢ | $35 | 0x862eeb… |
| 08-01 02:35:54 | Monumental-Vault 0x7f98…02ce | No | BUY | 67 | 99¢ | $66 | 0x862eeb… |
| 08-01 02:35:54 | (anonymous) 0x9052…383a | No | SELL | 31 | 99¢ | $31 | 0x862eeb… |
| 07-31 16:56:06 | (anonymous) 0xe85e…fd9f | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x1f8748… |
| 07-31 16:56:06 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x1f8748… |
| 07-30 23:42:14 | (anonymous) 0x6794…4dc1 | No | SELL | 13 | 99¢ | $13 | 0xf9eeb8… |
| 07-30 23:42:14 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 13 | 99¢ | $13 | 0xf9eeb8… |
| 07-30 23:33:08 | Hard-Target 0x28a5…84e9 | No | SELL | 41 | 99¢ | $41 | 0xa52ce1… |
| 07-30 23:33:08 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 41 | 99¢ | $41 | 0xa52ce1… |
| 07-30 23:23:29 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xa167f7… |
| 07-30 23:23:29 | (anonymous) 0x6794…4dc1 | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xa167f7… |
| 07-30 23:16:27 | Hard-Target 0x28a5…84e9 | No | BUY | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0xcf97e2… |
| 07-30 23:16:27 | (anonymous) 0x12a0…6521 | No | SELL | 20 | 99¢ | $20 | 0xcf97e2… |
| 07-30 23:01:45 | (anonymous) 0x6794…4dc1 | No | BUY | 23 | 99¢ | $23 | 0x45e20b… |
| 07-30 23:01:45 | (anonymous) 0x12a0…6521 | No | SELL | 23 | 99¢ | $23 | 0x45e20b… |
| 07-30 23:00:27 | (anonymous) 0x12a0…6521 | No | SELL | 21 | 99¢ | $21 | 0x303cc0… |
| 07-30 23:00:27 | Hard-Target 0x28a5…84e9 | No | BUY | 21 | 99¢ | $21 | 0x303cc0… |
| 07-30 13:42:38 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x83f4c8… |
| 07-30 13:42:38 | Decisive-Conspiracy 0x8ee3…923f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x83f4c8… |
| 07-30 06:48:17 | Bossy-Concern 0x723e…3525 | No | SELL | 200 | 99¢ | $197 | 0xf83474… |
| 07-30 06:48:17 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 200 | 99¢ | $197 | 0xf83474… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x3902…33f7 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0xabff…ba09 | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $9 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x3dcb…edb8 | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x78b1…be3d | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x68d0…c845 | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x72be…52e1 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0xfa9f…056a | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x8cee…eda3 | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x5058…cff3 | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x4ddb…eda9 | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | Incomplete-Mutation 0xac7f…0dc4 | No | SELL | 100 | 99¢ | $99 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0xa276…bfe7 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x7ed8…77fd | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x903a…8dcd | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $8 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0xa7e8…77f5 | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x9a02…066f | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x873d…a01f | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x531e…8f00 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x3a6c…979b | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $9 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x984f…7a3a | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x9aef…a8c9 | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x2b55…e9fe | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x5929…6ea8 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 1,396 | 99¢ | $1,378 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0xedfc…fa04 | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x33c4…c826 | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0xa576…e8ae | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x5841…b493 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x3871…40ab | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x1cf8…306d | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x19b1…da80 | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x951b…51f7 | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x2455…372a | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0xfffd…5c7e | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x1b69…1eee | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | Speedy-Upgrade 0xb9c7…8ce7 | No | SELL | 95 | 99¢ | $94 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0xa785…603c | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x9f94…8fe3 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0xd4ee…07c4 | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x0693…f9f9 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x10df…fa26 | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0xee33…557a | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x521c…a35f | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | BUY | 1,530 | 99¢ | $1,510 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x3662…7998 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x9c36b0… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x9cd4…853b | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $8 | 0xfe5cb4… |
| 07-28 22:55:49 | (anonymous) 0x77cb…6bda | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0xfe5cb4… |