Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$427,244
$26 in 24h
Trades
12,017
Unique wallets
1,464
Liquidity
$66,699
Latest YES mid
1¢
Latest NO mid
99¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-11 14:37
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+99.2¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $504
vs crowd: 1% YES on $238.2K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 18 | $77 | $17.8K | $17.8K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 39 | $1.4K | $61.9K | $60.5K |
| 🐟 Fish | 631 | $275 | $106.9K | $106.6K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 776 | $174 | $49.7K | $49.5K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 4 | $504 | — | +$504 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 15 | $612 | $4.1K | $3.5K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 9 | $17 | $10.6K | $10.6K |
| Median | 116 | $62 | $32.5K | $32.5K |
| Below median | 481 | $100 | $73.3K | $73.2K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 10 | $20 | $11.7K | $11.7K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 12 | $2 | $293 | $291 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $77 | $197 | $121 |
| unranked | 816 | $536 | $103.5K | $103.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +17,103 | $266 | $804 | 480 | 07-11 11:57 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +14,625 | $237 | $237 | 78 | 06-05 22:29 |
| Qualified-Citizen 0xa80e…b94b | No | +10,754 | $10,582 | $10,582 | 17 | 06-07 16:11 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +8,750 | $144 | $405 | 262 | 07-10 03:10 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +7,091 | $6,978 | $6,978 | 44 | 06-06 01:49 |
| Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | No | +6,000 | $5,910 | $5,910 | 45 | 06-30 15:25 |
| Livid-Anarchy 0x0c9e…352a | Yes | +6,000 | $84 | $84 | 93 | 06-25 12:58 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | +5,356 | $77 | $77 | 15 | 06-12 19:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x060b…548e | No | +5,071 | $5,010 | $5,010 | 7 | 07-10 03:10 |
| Haunting-Serial 0x83d4…bce8 | Yes | +5,000 | $70 | $70 | 45 | 06-25 12:59 |
| Haunting-Serial 0x83d4…bce8 | No | +4,885 | $4,812 | $4,812 | 89 | 06-24 06:23 |
| Kind-Nanoparticle 0xad60…97f4 | No | +4,737 | $4,500 | $44,302 | 84 | 07-11 09:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x4308…dbe7 | No | +3,796 | $3,751 | $3,916 | 6 | 07-11 09:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x0fb4…d31c | No | +3,704 | $3,658 | $8,213 | 54 | 07-11 09:47 |
| Blissful-Skating 0x6d04…6946 | No | +3,196 | $3,154 | $3,154 | 1 | 07-02 06:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x8a63…10b3 | No | +2,494 | $2,459 | $2,459 | 2 | 07-02 03:45 |
| Cultured-Disregard 0x76a1…4652 | Yes | +2,120 | $30 | $30 | 26 | 06-12 10:21 |
| Aching-Lament 0x3a03…d3be | No | +1,801 | $1,778 | $1,778 | 4 | 07-04 06:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xc4c9…848f | No | +1,449 | $1,430 | $1,430 | 1 | 07-02 06:07 |
| Snappy-Bag 0x878a…4b38 | No | +1,253 | $1,235 | $1,235 | 2 | 07-01 05:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xe279…812b | No | +1,202 | $1,185 | $1,185 | 1 | 06-09 08:30 |
| Paltry-Sentiment 0x091e…84bc | No | +1,179 | $1,163 | $1,163 | 5 | 06-27 13:32 |
| Blushing-Roast 0x7ad0…19e3 | Yes | +1,100 | $26 | $26 | 1 | 05-28 10:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xc69b…1134 | No | +1,012 | $1,000 | $1,000 | 1 | 07-08 13:38 |
| Extroverted-Pianist 0x6cfc…a5c2 | No | +1,000 | $987 | $987 | 7 | 07-11 11:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xd65b…d67a | No | +720 | $711 | $711 | 1 | 07-10 11:28 |
| Oval-Watermelon 0x5e46…ab45 | No | +519 | $513 | $513 | 2 | 07-07 09:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x2949…5a71 | No | +508 | $501 | $501 | 1 | 06-08 08:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x33af…675e | Yes | +500 | $6 | $63 | 43 | 06-25 13:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x565f…e7df | Yes | +488 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-29 03:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x6c8b…645c | Yes | +385 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-05 04:22 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +200 | $197 | $197 | 1 | 06-03 14:45 |
| Bossy-Concern 0x723e…3525 | No | +200 | $196 | $196 | 1 | 06-01 09:03 |
| Starry-Journalism 0x3ffb…bf28 | No | +193 | $188 | $188 | 1 | 05-28 08:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xdb55…85af | Yes | +133 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-18 08:11 |
| Burdensome-Kielbasa 0xf2ab…97a4 | No | +131 | $127 | $1,827 | 19 | 06-01 13:33 |
| Jittery-Cartilage 0xf3c8…e340 | No | +120 | $118 | $118 | 1 | 06-24 08:35 |
| Jittery-Cartilage 0xf3c8…e340 | Yes | +120 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-24 08:35 |
| Jagged-Employ 0xe356…6f3a | Yes | +110 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-04 06:05 |
| Sorrowful-Whale 0x03ed…4927 | No | +105 | $104 | $106 | 2 | 07-04 11:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x750b…609f | No | +101 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-24 23:46 |
| Jolly-Vision 0xdf01…c782 | No | +101 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-04 06:57 |
| Multicolored-Billing 0x69af…0a19 | No | +100 | $99 | $99 | 1 | 06-02 15:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x12a0…6521 | No | +100 | $99 | $99 | 1 | 06-29 03:10 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 14:37:25 | (anonymous) 0x0f0c…23a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x3a9fa8… |
| 07-11 14:37:25 | (anonymous) 0xaa35…82a1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x3a9fa8… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0x400d…c7c8 | No | BUY | 8 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0x28f2…df92 | No | BUY | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0x5357…170b | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0x83f2…c672 | No | BUY | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0x0c87…a98d | No | BUY | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0x035d…d381 | No | BUY | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0xa639…a899 | No | BUY | 3 | 99¢ | $3 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0xdda6…7722 | No | BUY | 8 | 99¢ | $7 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0xd5a6…88f4 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $9 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0x5176…248d | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0xa276…bfe7 | No | BUY | 2 | 99¢ | $2 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0x19b1…da80 | No | BUY | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | Unconscious-Dispatch 0x3182…827a | No | SELL | 115 | 99¢ | $114 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0xe83a…5606 | No | BUY | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0x825e…71b0 | No | BUY | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 13:21:22 | (anonymous) 0x22f2…3b64 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0xe46cf9… |
| 07-11 11:57:40 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 38 | 99¢ | $37 | 0x9a9f31… |
| 07-11 11:57:40 | (anonymous) 0xcc9c…4488 | No | SELL | 50 | 99¢ | $49 | 0x9a9f31… |
| 07-11 11:57:40 | Unconscious-Dispatch 0x3182…827a | No | BUY | 115 | 99¢ | $114 | 0x9a9f31… |
| 07-11 11:57:40 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x9a9f31… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x98ba…bb7b | No | BUY | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x6b21…f47d | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0xfbc7…16c8 | No | BUY | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0xca1d…e34f | No | BUY | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x1c08…c6fe | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | Acclaimed-Teammate 0x6d71…82e5 | No | SELL | 355 | 99¢ | $351 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x06e7…8535 | No | BUY | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0xd88d…0630 | No | BUY | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x480a…b914 | No | BUY | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x04e9…7c08 | No | BUY | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x7f5a…1359 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0xc5fa…50c5 | No | BUY | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x4fe1…b0d3 | No | BUY | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x9cd4…853b | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | Extroverted-Pianist 0x6cfc…a5c2 | No | BUY | 181 | 99¢ | $179 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x0f0c…23a1 | No | BUY | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0xafae…acb1 | No | BUY | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x2b6d…07d9 | No | BUY | 10 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0xa639…a899 | No | BUY | 3 | 99¢ | $3 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0xa6c3…0b26 | No | BUY | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x0837…9178 | No | BUY | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x1533…9ca5 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0xb0c6…894d | No | BUY | 7 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x684e…2d24 | No | BUY | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 11:31:08 | (anonymous) 0x825e…71b0 | No | BUY | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x2836df… |
| 07-11 10:33:04 | Extroverted-Pianist 0x6cfc…a5c2 | No | BUY | 11 | 99¢ | $11 | 0x9f3ffc… |
| 07-11 10:33:04 | (anonymous) 0x1d37…8db4 | No | SELL | 11 | 99¢ | $11 | 0x9f3ffc… |
| 07-11 10:27:47 | Extroverted-Pianist 0x6cfc…a5c2 | No | BUY | 21 | 99¢ | $21 | 0xd3b8c3… |
| 07-11 10:27:47 | (anonymous) 0x3708…370b | No | SELL | 21 | 99¢ | $21 | 0xd3b8c3… |
| 07-11 09:47:50 | (anonymous) 0x0fb4…d31c | No | BUY | 3,380 | 99¢ | $3,339 | 0x9c15b3… |
| 07-11 09:47:50 | Acclaimed-Teammate 0x6d71…82e5 | No | SELL | 3,380 | 99¢ | $3,339 | 0x9c15b3… |
| 07-11 09:46:01 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 38 | 99¢ | $37 | 0xe0b265… |
| 07-11 09:46:01 | Acclaimed-Teammate 0x6d71…82e5 | No | SELL | 276 | 99¢ | $272 | 0xe0b265… |
| 07-11 09:46:01 | Kind-Nanoparticle 0xad60…97f4 | No | SELL | 230 | 99¢ | $228 | 0xe0b265… |
| 07-11 09:46:01 | (anonymous) 0x4308…dbe7 | No | BUY | 630 | 99¢ | $622 | 0xe0b265… |
| 07-11 09:46:01 | Basic-Patriarch 0x0048…7b2d | No | SELL | 65 | 99¢ | $64 | 0xe0b265… |
| 07-11 04:26:52 | Extroverted-Pianist 0x6cfc…a5c2 | No | BUY | 108 | 99¢ | $106 | 0x7a9655… |
| 07-11 04:26:52 | Negligible-Reveal 0xd850…b459 | No | SELL | 108 | 99¢ | $106 | 0x7a9655… |
| 07-10 11:29:01 | Kind-Nanoparticle 0xad60…97f4 | No | SELL | 430 | 99¢ | $425 | 0x46fa48… |
| 07-10 11:29:01 | (anonymous) 0x0fb4…d31c | No | BUY | 430 | 99¢ | $425 | 0x46fa48… |
| 07-10 11:28:19 | (anonymous) 0xd65b…d67a | No | BUY | 720 | 99¢ | $711 | 0x1280a3… |
| 07-10 11:28:19 | Kind-Nanoparticle 0xad60…97f4 | No | SELL | 720 | 99¢ | $711 | 0x1280a3… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xefd5…9bec | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xca3d…a1a6 | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x9ef1…8a8b | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xad48…66c7 | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xdb68…bc9a | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xa7e8…77f5 | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xe81a…a540 | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xb4f7…a543 | No | SELL | 39 | 99¢ | $39 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x00ff…9f0d | No | SELL | 14 | 99¢ | $13 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x62b5…07e7 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x1059…9d8d | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x1a85…631c | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xe8cc…6e8e | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x1309…72b9 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x142e…bfef | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x458c…ba04 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x4308…dbe7 | No | BUY | 399 | 99¢ | $394 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x7ed8…77fd | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xb32c…12ba | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xf883…c9a0 | No | SELL | 10 | 99¢ | $10 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x6db2…7802 | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x69fb…53dd | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x3cb8…2536 | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x3a6c…979b | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xa9a2…0355 | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xb862…fd3c | No | SELL | 9 | 99¢ | $9 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xe5ee…6557 | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x70a6…ffd5 | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x20b6…4ac4 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x315a…9a71 | No | SELL | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x7d3b…e8c6 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xb64a…3049 | No | SELL | 6 | 99¢ | $6 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | Kind-Nanoparticle 0xad60…97f4 | No | SELL | 401 | 99¢ | $396 | 0x90ff4b… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x4308…dbe7 | No | BUY | 471 | 99¢ | $466 | 0x90ff4b… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0x3dcb…edb8 | No | SELL | 7 | 99¢ | $7 | 0x6ba915… |
| 07-10 11:26:59 | (anonymous) 0xb3bc…a578 | No | SELL | 8 | 99¢ | $8 | 0x6ba915… |