Distorted-Dude — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$97.5K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.05K

Hit rate

75.5%

Resolved

Trades

2,906

lifetime

Volume

$2.61M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$899

Open exposure

$31.7K

8 positions

First seen

2026-04-10

last 08-09 07:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Politics

60% 64% +$49,526

Other

36% 45% +$38,437

Crypto

4% 71% +$9,531

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+15,259	$14,771	100¢	$15.2K	+$435	06-04 13:37
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,798	$3,418	99¢	$3.8K	+$332	06-04 03:59
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,420	$3,232	99¢	$3.4K	+$166	06-03 19:21
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,409	$3,259	99¢	$3.4K	+$128	06-04 07:30
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+3,167	$3,057	99¢	$3.1K	+$87	06-01 15:56
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,664	$1,615	100¢	$1.7K	+$41	06-01 18:44
will bitcoin dip to 60k by december 31 2026 from july 21	Yes	+5,875	$4,161	16¢	$911	-$3,250	07-27 02:11
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+237	$221	98¢	$233	+$13	06-03 11:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	23	$227.6K	243,854	0	+243,854	No	+$16,221	05-29 18:44
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	34	$177.7K	190,764	0	+190,764	No	+$13,081	06-09 01:32
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	20	$149.5K	75,858	75,857	+0	No	+$1,961	04-14 22:08
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	1	$148.3K	152,213	0	+152,213	No	+$3,958	04-28 13:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	217	$104.2K	100,187	100,187	+0	No	-$5,991	05-20 14:14
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	1	$94.5K	107,427	0	+107,427	No	+$12,891	07-08 17:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	155	$94.4K	65,000	65,000	+0	Yes	+$5,700	05-22 17:04
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	86	$91.6K	70,000	70,000	+0	No	-$31,243	06-08 09:44
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	52	$86.7K	95,377	0	+95,377	No	+$8,670	04-15 18:43
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$84.5K	100,649	0	+100,649	No	+$16,137	04-19 06:46
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	47	$78.8K	174,274	174,274	+0	open	—	08-02 06:38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	96	$77.5K	150,204	3,952	+146,251	Yes	+$72,877	05-25 05:16
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	56	$70.5K	100,000	99,970	+30	No	+$41,483	05-29 16:03
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	69	$66.0K	34,738	34,738	+0	No	+$144	04-19 11:45
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?	81	$55.8K	70,460	0	+70,460	No	+$14,641	07-03 18:59
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	23	$53.0K	30,000	30,000	+0	Yes	+$6,810	05-25 05:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	132	$51.9K	80,487	80,487	+0	No	-$7,775	05-26 10:33
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	25	$49.3K	26,000	26,000	+0	Yes	+$2,548	05-24 05:38
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	117	$48.1K	50,000	0	+50,000	No	+$1,900	07-03 12:46
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	52	$48.0K	40,000	40,000	+0	No	-$15,993	06-08 10:17
will wti reach 105 in july 2026	43	$47.5K	25,000	25,000	+0	No	-$1,675	07-20 08:01
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	3	$46.1K	47,607	0	+47,607	No	+$1,551	04-22 07:47
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	34	$44.8K	26,393	26,393	+0	Yes	+$4,144	07-19 23:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$38.3K	88,738	88,738	+0	No	+$9,649	05-22 15:09
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	62	$36.7K	37,500	37,500	+0	Yes	-$3,207	08-02 21:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	217	$36.3K	61,148	61,147	+0	No	-$4,958	05-21 10:41
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	4	$35.3K	36,579	0	+36,579	Yes	+$1,236	05-22 20:41
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	6	$33.1K	35,223	0	+35,223	No	+$2,113	04-20 09:22
will bitcoin dip to 62pt5k in july 2026 from july 14	29	$32.0K	36,062	36,062	+0	Yes	+$6,944	07-25 01:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	57	$32.0K	40,000	0	+40,000	Yes	+$8,000	05-13 01:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 07:05:18	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	5,408	32¢	$1,731	0x36c098…
08-09 06:48:51	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	515	32¢	$165	0x9b152f…
08-09 05:36:40	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	34	32¢	$11	0x5d371d…
08-09 04:55:43	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	21	32¢	$7	0x3dc984…
08-09 03:42:43	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x3abddb…
08-09 03:21:13	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	11	32¢	$4	0xeffcd5…
08-09 03:20:16	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	13	32¢	$4	0xa7178e…
08-09 03:18:51	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	61	32¢	$20	0x0ecb48…
08-07 20:32:52	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	3,000	32¢	$960	0x7fee7c…
08-07 19:00:40	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	647	32¢	$207	0xf57aa8…
08-07 18:54:55	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x0b1d2a…
08-07 18:29:12	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	284	32¢	$91	0xa2a15a…
08-07 18:09:04	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	402	6¢	$24	0x309306…
08-07 17:49:06	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x779c14…
08-07 17:08:58	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	6,000	6¢	$360	0xd8a747…
08-07 16:49:40	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x3bc72b…
08-07 16:49:37	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	338	6¢	$20	0xb68796…
08-07 16:33:40	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	3,258	6¢	$195	0xc2a2ce…
08-02 21:33:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	7,997	35¢	$2,799	0x3be794…
08-02 21:32:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0x16cf71…
08-02 21:32:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	1,500	35¢	$525	0xb3a388…
08-02 20:38:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	84	35¢	$29	0x4bead5…
08-02 20:25:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	646	35¢	$226	0x7fc6d8…
08-02 17:33:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	298	35¢	$104	0xf31a55…
08-02 17:31:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	510	35¢	$179	0xb30e20…
08-02 17:27:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	22	35¢	$8	0x575c52…
08-02 17:27:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	171	35¢	$60	0x5f2faa…
08-02 17:26:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	28	35¢	$10	0xb82936…
08-02 17:26:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	8,500	35¢	$2,975	0xf65eef…
08-02 13:20:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	11	35¢	$4	0xe9975f…
08-02 13:14:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	75	35¢	$26	0x8a9581…
08-02 13:14:20	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x147fdc…
08-02 13:14:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	15	35¢	$5	0x4c2c84…
08-02 13:14:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	12	35¢	$4	0xefd508…
08-02 13:14:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	42	35¢	$15	0xad39e1…
08-02 13:14:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	17	35¢	$6	0x57c5c0…
08-02 13:14:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0x414996…
08-02 13:14:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	33	35¢	$11	0xfb0cff…
08-02 13:14:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	11	35¢	$4	0xf3d293…
08-02 10:09:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x493f2b…
08-02 10:04:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x9e02aa…
08-02 10:01:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0x3414c1…
08-02 09:58:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	31	2¢	$1	0x79940e…
08-02 09:58:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	31	2¢	$1	0x446d74…
08-02 09:53:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x8f5b5b…
08-02 09:53:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x489aee…
08-02 09:45:23	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	1,722	2¢	$31	0x31b7da…
08-02 09:42:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0xd493fe…
08-02 09:42:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0x28bbc3…
08-02 09:39:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	113	2¢	$2	0x584fd4…
08-02 09:10:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	500	2¢	$9	0xbb29ec…
08-02 09:08:50	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	1,630	2¢	$29	0xe8982b…
08-02 09:08:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	19	2¢	$0	0xf4e077…
08-02 07:36:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	2,462	2¢	$44	0x3152ae…
08-02 07:31:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	19	2¢	$0	0xa51389…
08-02 07:31:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0x42e183…
08-02 07:31:05	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0x2e8594…
08-02 07:23:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0x86c23f…
08-02 07:23:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	310	2¢	$6	0x618b2a…
08-02 07:18:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	143	2¢	$3	0x7b51d4…
08-02 07:16:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0x19b9bc…
08-02 07:16:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0x6d8350…
08-02 07:16:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0x661a96…
08-02 07:15:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	25	2¢	$0	0xb90940…
08-02 07:15:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	500	2¢	$9	0x2fd3a9…
08-02 07:14:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0x0e4a88…
08-02 07:14:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	1,667	2¢	$30	0xa8fc04…
08-02 07:10:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	104	2¢	$2	0xc6f0c7…
08-02 06:47:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	SELL	128	4¢	$5	0x5978c7…
08-02 06:38:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	150,000	19¢	$28,500	0x01af8f…
08-02 06:29:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xb10169…
08-02 06:25:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	No	SELL	150	2¢	$3	0x19eba3…
08-02 06:22:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0x6e2fad…
08-02 02:08:06	will bitcoin dip to 60k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	10,000	57¢	$5,700	0x209251…
08-02 01:15:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50,000	24¢	$12,000	0xf8b4b0…
08-02 01:11:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$2	0x8838f2…
08-02 00:53:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	5,052	24¢	$1,212	0x42a240…
08-02 00:52:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xce1686…
08-02 00:50:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0xa43461…
08-02 00:49:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x2655e3…
08-02 00:48:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xddd342…
08-02 00:45:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	2	24¢	$0	0x8bf751…
08-02 00:45:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xcff680…
08-02 00:45:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x93fcf8…
08-02 00:45:47	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	600	24¢	$144	0x0e2b8d…
08-02 00:45:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	300	24¢	$72	0xd572d0…
08-02 00:44:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x69eab4…
08-02 00:30:11	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10,000	24¢	$2,400	0x5c3ef1…
08-02 00:30:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	132	24¢	$32	0xeff856…
08-02 00:29:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	132	24¢	$32	0x30cae6…
08-02 00:29:33	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	132	24¢	$32	0x53c4bd…
08-02 00:29:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	132	24¢	$32	0x8d74cf…
08-02 00:26:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0x2e8004…
08-02 00:07:17	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xbc405b…
08-02 00:06:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x04fdd4…
08-02 00:06:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	3,400	24¢	$816	0x879fb6…
08-01 23:55:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x885e9b…
08-01 23:55:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0xfd660c…
08-01 23:54:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0xddd54c…
08-01 23:54:56	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x367684…