Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$139,053
$313 in 24h
Trades
3,855
Unique wallets
890
Liquidity
$72,349
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 08-17 23:06
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+49.6¢
(top1%: 54% YES on $800
vs crowd: 4% YES on $88.5K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 28 | $131 | $17.7K | $17.6K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 41 | $480 | $37.2K | $36.8K |
| 🐟 Fish | 236 | $2.6K | $22.0K | $19.4K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 585 | $235 | $8.1K | $7.9K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 4 | $428 | $372 | +$56 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 19 | $11 | $28.1K | $28.1K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 14 | $21 | $1.1K | $1.0K |
| Median | 207 | $6 | $8.4K | $8.4K |
| Below median | 225 | $9 | $7.5K | $7.5K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 23 | $21 | $2.4K | $2.4K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 24 | $15 | $3.8K | $3.8K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 8 | $71 | $4.0K | $4.0K |
| unranked | 366 | $2.9K | $29.3K | $26.4K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | +28,524 | $1,460 | $3,530 | 28 | 08-14 11:51 |
| Pleasant-Councilor 0x42fa…1fc7 | No | +25,000 | $24,025 | $24,025 | 5 | 07-08 15:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +4,738 | $4,569 | $4,569 | 23 | 07-31 15:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xf705…3ca7 | No | +3,464 | $3,363 | $3,363 | 2 | 08-14 16:50 |
| Distorted-Dude 0xe36f…cd91 | No | +3,420 | $3,232 | $3,232 | 5 | 06-03 19:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x27b3…01bb | No | +3,000 | $2,847 | $2,847 | 8 | 06-04 17:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x2468…4826 | Yes | +2,917 | $127 | $127 | 2 | 07-11 10:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xe120…283e | No | +2,148 | $2,020 | $4,171 | 27 | 08-14 11:51 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | +1,800 | $55 | $55 | 3 | 06-13 08:32 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | +1,612 | $51 | $51 | 53 | 08-17 23:06 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | +1,511 | $1,456 | $1,456 | 46 | 08-14 11:51 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +1,496 | $1,429 | $1,429 | 19 | 08-01 13:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | Yes | +731 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 06-04 10:28 |
| Hearty-Sprat 0xc2db…6865 | No | +706 | $687 | $687 | 29 | 08-17 20:59 |
| Harmonious-Mozzarella 0xeda7…e3d5 | No | +527 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 06-02 09:10 |
| Incomplete-Cherry 0x107f…bb8c | No | +500 | $478 | $478 | 6 | 08-14 11:51 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +500 | $485 | $485 | 1 | 08-10 07:07 |
| Peppery-Syndicate 0x4700…41ce | No | +372 | $360 | $360 | 1 | 08-05 09:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xca22…2ee7 | No | +333 | $314 | $314 | 1 | 06-08 05:26 |
| Smart-Average 0x161a…b515 | No | +319 | $300 | $300 | 3 | 06-10 14:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xb792…8e7d | Yes | +300 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-13 08:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x335d…efec | No | +300 | $288 | $288 | 1 | 08-14 11:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xe1e1…d250 | No | +283 | $267 | $267 | 1 | 06-06 17:17 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +274 | $9 | $10 | 6 | 08-11 09:23 |
| Internal-Hospitality 0x535f…9667 | Yes | +205 | $8 | $18 | 3 | 06-12 21:46 |
| Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | +201 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 07-27 07:59 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | +200 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 21:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x659c…d142 | Yes | +200 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 21:46 |
| Velvety-Outlaw 0x1ee7…4ea8 | No | +197 | $187 | $187 | 6 | 06-05 01:19 |
| (anonymous) 0xee1d…cb8d | No | +141 | $138 | $138 | 1 | 08-14 11:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x1823…8e49 | Yes | +125 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-29 14:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6bf…d892 | Yes | +118 | $3 | $3 | 15 | 07-19 06:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xe6a9…705a | No | +116 | $112 | $112 | 1 | 06-14 07:51 |
| Admirable-Hydrocarbon 0xa0cd…85f2 | No | +115 | $110 | $110 | 1 | 06-15 13:28 |
| Friendly-Mare 0xb100…673f | No | +111 | $105 | $105 | 1 | 06-05 07:05 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | Yes | +109 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-28 23:01 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-17 23:06:42 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 0 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfeba9c… |
| 08-17 23:06:42 | (anonymous) 0x8591…9abe | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xfeba9c… |
| 08-17 23:06:42 | Glossy-Marathon 0x273d…1123 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xfeba9c… |
| 08-17 20:59:31 | Glass-Typewriter 0xa49b…7054 | No | SELL | 17 | 98¢ | $16 | 0xf5c92b… |
| 08-17 20:59:31 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | SELL | 23 | 98¢ | $22 | 0xf5c92b… |
| 08-17 20:59:31 | Hearty-Sprat 0xc2db…6865 | No | BUY | 439 | 98¢ | $429 | 0xf5c92b… |
| 08-17 20:59:31 | Gaseous-Percentage 0xdcc9…4534 | No | SELL | 138 | 98¢ | $134 | 0xf5c92b… |
| 08-17 20:59:31 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0xf5c92b… |
| 08-17 20:23:10 | (anonymous) 0x6916…2fd4 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x29da5a… |
| 08-17 20:23:10 | Early-Navigation 0x33ac…506b | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x29da5a… |
| 08-17 19:13:43 | (anonymous) 0x25ed…69cf | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x0919e1… |
| 08-17 19:13:43 | Awkward-Bunkhouse 0xf3f8…ca8f | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x0919e1… |
| 08-17 18:12:48 | Threadbare-Tool 0xe007…a797 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xacadb3… |
| 08-17 18:12:48 | (anonymous) 0x25ed…69cf | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xacadb3… |
| 08-17 18:05:57 | Jubilant-Oxford 0x6032…fde9 | No | SELL | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x0e3a53… |
| 08-17 18:05:57 | (anonymous) 0x25ed…69cf | No | BUY | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x0e3a53… |
| 08-17 18:00:33 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x0f1959… |
| 08-17 18:00:33 | Profitable-Serum 0x6638…513a | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x0f1959… |
| 08-17 17:33:27 | Threadbare-Tool 0xe007…a797 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x611dcc… |
| 08-17 17:33:27 | Gaseous-Percentage 0xdcc9…4534 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x611dcc… |
| 08-17 17:12:33 | Gaseous-Percentage 0xdcc9…4534 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xca2413… |
| 08-17 17:12:33 | Early-Navigation 0x33ac…506b | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xca2413… |
| 08-17 16:02:43 | Gaseous-Percentage 0xdcc9…4534 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x0814a0… |
| 08-17 16:02:43 | Awkward-Bunkhouse 0xf3f8…ca8f | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x0814a0… |
| 08-17 14:55:43 | Jubilant-Oxford 0x6032…fde9 | No | BUY | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x3a7114… |
| 08-17 14:55:43 | Gaseous-Percentage 0xdcc9…4534 | No | SELL | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x3a7114… |
| 08-17 14:50:22 | Profitable-Serum 0x6638…513a | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x8a9a50… |
| 08-17 14:50:22 | Gaseous-Percentage 0xdcc9…4534 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x8a9a50… |
| 08-17 11:57:25 | Lustrous-Cenotaph 0x2fed…f30d | No | SELL | 36 | 97¢ | $35 | 0xc3f772… |
| 08-17 11:57:25 | (anonymous) 0x7af6…776b | No | BUY | 36 | 97¢ | $35 | 0xc3f772… |
| 08-17 11:42:48 | (anonymous) 0x2710…03cb | No | BUY | 35 | 97¢ | $34 | 0xd6034c… |
| 08-17 11:42:48 | (anonymous) 0x7af6…776b | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0xd6034c… |
| 08-17 11:42:48 | Bright-Subway 0x47ac…b76c | No | SELL | 38 | 97¢ | $37 | 0xd6034c… |
| 08-17 01:14:48 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x0ff26e… |
| 08-17 01:14:48 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x0ff26e… |
| 08-17 01:14:48 | Violent-Signature 0xe9fb…dbd0 | Yes | BUY | 36 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x0ff26e… |
| 08-17 01:14:48 | (anonymous) 0x2710…03cb | No | BUY | 15 | 97¢ | $14 | 0x0ff26e… |
| 08-16 08:40:00 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 9 | 97¢ | $9 | 0x5e7a40… |
| 08-16 08:40:00 | (anonymous) 0x681e…b132 | No | SELL | 9 | 97¢ | $9 | 0x5e7a40… |
| 08-16 02:24:12 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x9069a9… |
| 08-16 02:24:12 | (anonymous) 0x7125…5cb8 | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x9069a9… |
| 08-16 02:21:34 | (anonymous) 0xfd46…196e | No | SELL | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0x3c82b2… |
| 08-16 02:21:34 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0x3c82b2… |
| 08-15 21:19:25 | Plaintive-Physiology 0x79da…ae60 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xed2820… |
| 08-15 21:19:25 | Gaseous-Percentage 0xdcc9…4534 | No | SELL | 39 | 98¢ | $38 | 0xed2820… |
| 08-15 21:19:24 | (anonymous) 0xdb6b…9c63 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x9453e1… |
| 08-15 21:19:24 | Gaseous-Percentage 0xdcc9…4534 | No | SELL | 39 | 98¢ | $38 | 0x9453e1… |
| 08-15 21:18:49 | Plaintive-Physiology 0x79da…ae60 | Yes | BUY | 39 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x2a4e28… |
| 08-15 21:18:49 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0x2a4e28… |
| 08-15 21:18:49 | Bright-Subway 0x47ac…b76c | No | BUY | 35 | 97¢ | $34 | 0x2a4e28… |
| 08-15 21:18:48 | Bright-Subway 0x47ac…b76c | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x36919e… |
| 08-15 21:18:48 | (anonymous) 0xdb6b…9c63 | Yes | BUY | 39 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x36919e… |
| 08-15 21:18:48 | Lustrous-Cenotaph 0x2fed…f30d | No | BUY | 36 | 97¢ | $35 | 0x36919e… |
| 08-15 20:23:18 | Enormous-Mansion 0xed7a…3119 | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x0af969… |
| 08-15 20:23:18 | (anonymous) 0xc2cd…d0b5 | No | SELL | 24 | 97¢ | $23 | 0x0af969… |
| 08-15 20:23:18 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | SELL | 13 | 97¢ | $12 | 0x0af969… |
| 08-15 20:23:18 | Melodic-Heart 0x31dd…1f9f | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x0af969… |
| 08-15 20:23:18 | General-Tone 0x357a…30a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x0af969… |
| 08-15 20:23:18 | Gaseous-Percentage 0xdcc9…4534 | No | BUY | 138 | 97¢ | $133 | 0x0af969… |
| 08-15 20:23:18 | Talkative-Contrast 0x6dca…f3eb | No | SELL | 8 | 97¢ | $8 | 0x0af969… |
| 08-15 20:23:18 | Traumatic-Helmet 0x3132…30d1 | No | SELL | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x0af969… |
| 08-15 20:23:18 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x0af969… |
| 08-15 14:51:54 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | BUY | 13 | 97¢ | $12 | 0xbaf369… |
| 08-15 14:51:54 | (anonymous) 0xb6c7…7bec | No | SELL | 33 | 97¢ | $32 | 0xbaf369… |
| 08-15 14:51:54 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0xbaf369… |
| 08-14 21:03:45 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x94f3f1… |
| 08-14 21:03:45 | Enormous-Mansion 0xed7a…3119 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x94f3f1… |
| 08-14 20:08:13 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 32 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xd53ea6… |
| 08-14 20:08:13 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | SELL | 32 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xd53ea6… |
| 08-14 19:02:52 | Traumatic-Helmet 0x3132…30d1 | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0xcb3ff5… |
| 08-14 19:02:52 | Utilized-Permission 0x671a…a5ca | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xcb3ff5… |
| 08-14 19:02:52 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xcb3ff5… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | (anonymous) 0x2f5a…5005 | No | SELL | 18 | 97¢ | $17 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | BUY | 32 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | Another-Spiritual 0xcfb2…a187 | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | Vibrant-Gelding 0x27ec…e521 | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | (anonymous) 0xeaba…a214 | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | Moral-Stadium 0xf620…678f | No | SELL | 8 | 97¢ | $8 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | (anonymous) 0xf705…3ca7 | No | BUY | 3,371 | 97¢ | $3,273 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | (anonymous) 0x0139…ecb1 | No | SELL | 40 | 97¢ | $39 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | (anonymous) 0xc756…0724 | No | SELL | 35 | 97¢ | $34 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | (anonymous) 0x6916…2fd4 | No | SELL | 3,000 | 97¢ | $2,913 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:50:57 | Slippery-Chemistry 0xfe00…46ce | No | SELL | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0xe7b8bf… |
| 08-14 16:06:31 | (anonymous) 0x2f5a…5005 | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x6b415b… |
| 08-14 16:06:31 | Another-Spiritual 0xcfb2…a187 | No | BUY | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x6b415b… |
| 08-14 15:24:06 | General-Tone 0x357a…30a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xb26f69… |
| 08-14 15:24:06 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xb26f69… |
| 08-14 14:36:28 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 8 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x448402… |
| 08-14 14:36:28 | Talkative-Contrast 0x6dca…f3eb | No | BUY | 8 | 97¢ | $8 | 0x448402… |
| 08-14 14:20:34 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | BUY | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xf9e5f3… |
| 08-14 14:20:34 | Melodic-Heart 0x31dd…1f9f | No | BUY | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0xf9e5f3… |
| 08-14 14:20:34 | Straight-Mailing 0x6fcf…af89 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xf9e5f3… |
| 08-14 13:49:06 | Straight-Mailing 0x6fcf…af89 | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xf8ba0b… |
| 08-14 13:49:06 | Utilized-Permission 0x671a…a5ca | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xf8ba0b… |
| 08-14 12:19:34 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0xbc428f… |
| 08-14 12:19:34 | Slippery-Chemistry 0xfe00…46ce | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0xbc428f… |
| 08-14 12:09:06 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x5e6c1d… |
| 08-14 12:09:06 | Moral-Stadium 0xf620…678f | No | BUY | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x5e6c1d… |
| 08-14 11:53:46 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0xd51888… |