Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$34,205
$313 in 24h
Trades
1,247
Unique wallets
321
Liquidity
$72,349
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-09 22:26
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+94.6¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $166
vs crowd: 5% YES on $23.6K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 15 | $7 | $4.9K | $4.9K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 23 | $196 | $4.6K | $4.4K |
| 🐟 Fish | 69 | $25 | $9.0K | $9.0K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 213 | $1.0K | $3.8K | $2.7K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $166 | — | +$166 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 10 | $1 | $166 | $165 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $11 | $123 | $112 |
| Median | 130 | — | $2.2K | $2.2K |
| Below median | 94 | $2 | $2.6K | $2.6K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 8 | $5 | $929 | $924 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | — | $912 | $912 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $6 | $163 | $157 |
| unranked | 64 | $1.1K | $15.2K | $14.2K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | +16,525 | $908 | $908 | 12 | 06-09 09:45 |
| Distorted-Dude 0xe36f…cd91 | No | +3,420 | $3,232 | $3,232 | 5 | 06-03 19:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x27b3…01bb | No | +3,000 | $2,847 | $2,847 | 8 | 06-04 17:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xc553…07f3 | No | +2,100 | $1,974 | $1,974 | 21 | 06-09 09:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xe120…283e | No | +1,983 | $1,869 | $1,869 | 22 | 06-09 09:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x2468…4826 | Yes | +1,726 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-05 01:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | +1,479 | $1,393 | $3,122 | 105 | 06-09 22:26 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +871 | $824 | $824 | 6 | 06-04 07:32 |
| Necessary-Scope 0x9d99…4439 | No | +795 | $752 | $752 | 3 | 06-08 05:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | Yes | +731 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 06-04 10:28 |
| Harmonious-Mozzarella 0xeda7…e3d5 | No | +527 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 06-02 09:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xca22…2ee7 | No | +333 | $314 | $314 | 1 | 06-08 05:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xe1e1…d250 | No | +283 | $267 | $267 | 1 | 06-06 17:17 |
| Demanding-Entrepreneur 0x1d10…3bdd | No | +200 | $188 | $188 | 1 | 06-09 16:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xf46f…3196 | No | +200 | $187 | $567 | 3 | 06-05 01:19 |
| Velvety-Outlaw 0x1ee7…4ea8 | No | +197 | $187 | $187 | 6 | 06-05 01:19 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | +168 | $158 | $158 | 3 | 06-09 09:45 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +164 | $2 | $329 | 243 | 06-09 16:46 |
| Assured-Photo 0x1d43…cf5f | No | +162 | $153 | $296 | 3 | 06-08 05:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | +138 | $129 | $1,171 | 70 | 06-09 17:06 |
| Friendly-Mare 0xb100…673f | No | +111 | $105 | $105 | 1 | 06-05 07:05 |
| Multicolored-Billing 0x69af…0a19 | No | +100 | $95 | $95 | 1 | 06-04 17:37 |
| Incomplete-Cherry 0x107f…bb8c | No | +100 | $94 | $94 | 1 | 06-05 01:19 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +93 | $88 | $88 | 1 | 06-05 07:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x3994…4b80 | No | +92 | $87 | $87 | 1 | 06-08 05:26 |
| Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | +73 | $69 | $243 | 18 | 06-08 13:54 |
| Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | +70 | $66 | $511 | 45 | 06-05 01:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x9764…84a0 | Yes | +57 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-08 23:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x031c…2ac0 | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-03 11:25 |
| Forceful-Orchid 0xa01e…45e7 | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-06 09:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x6105…21ee | No | +50 | $47 | $47 | 1 | 06-04 17:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x5eb2…8c03 | No | +50 | $47 | $47 | 1 | 05-31 06:16 |
| Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | +47 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-04 10:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x0814…1f30 | No | +47 | $44 | $44 | 2 | 06-09 09:29 |
| Untrue-Bride 0x14a1…30d7 | No | +43 | $41 | $41 | 1 | 06-02 18:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xea29…43e3 | No | +39 | $37 | $170 | 16 | 06-09 09:47 |
| Naughty-Stab 0xc5ed…9374 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-04 09:37 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-09 22:26:06 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 62 | 94¢ | $58 | 0x1ddd16… |
| 06-09 22:26:06 | Deserted-Temporary 0xc5ff…4051 | No | SELL | 62 | 94¢ | $58 | 0x1ddd16… |
| 06-09 22:12:43 | Gruesome-Surprise 0x4d89…fe5b | No | SELL | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0x47d1c8… |
| 06-09 22:12:43 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0x47d1c8… |
| 06-09 21:46:40 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xfe0e37… |
| 06-09 21:46:40 | (anonymous) 0xed24…ca2f | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xfe0e37… |
| 06-09 20:42:28 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0xc7d9cf… |
| 06-09 20:42:28 | Aged-Jasmine 0x3725…bfc3 | No | SELL | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0xc7d9cf… |
| 06-09 20:19:57 | Amusing-Mortgage 0x8cad…b739 | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xb83927… |
| 06-09 20:19:57 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xb83927… |
| 06-09 19:02:06 | Gruesome-Surprise 0x4d89…fe5b | No | BUY | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0xb3b01f… |
| 06-09 19:02:06 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0xb3b01f… |
| 06-09 17:32:04 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0xc868c7… |
| 06-09 17:32:04 | Aged-Jasmine 0x3725…bfc3 | No | BUY | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0xc868c7… |
| 06-09 17:21:40 | Deserted-Temporary 0xc5ff…4051 | No | BUY | 62 | 94¢ | $58 | 0xec6f32… |
| 06-09 17:21:40 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 62 | 94¢ | $58 | 0xec6f32… |
| 06-09 17:09:19 | Amusing-Mortgage 0x8cad…b739 | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xcd1430… |
| 06-09 17:09:19 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xcd1430… |
| 06-09 17:06:28 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 10 | 94¢ | $10 | 0x03aa89… |
| 06-09 17:06:28 | Forsaken-Waiting 0x9782…619a | No | SELL | 54 | 94¢ | $50 | 0x03aa89… |
| 06-09 17:06:28 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 43 | 94¢ | $41 | 0x03aa89… |
| 06-09 16:46:33 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 96 | 6¢ | $6 | 0xd1a908… |
| 06-09 16:46:33 | Demanding-Entrepreneur 0x1d10…3bdd | No | BUY | 200 | 94¢ | $188 | 0xd1a908… |
| 06-09 16:46:33 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 14 | 94¢ | $13 | 0xd1a908… |
| 06-09 16:30:51 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0xc5763e… |
| 06-09 16:30:51 | (anonymous) 0x6fbf…d227 | No | SELL | 59 | 94¢ | $55 | 0xc5763e… |
| 06-09 16:30:51 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 48 | 94¢ | $45 | 0xc5763e… |
| 06-09 16:10:13 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 34 | 94¢ | $32 | 0x4c05a6… |
| 06-09 16:10:13 | Fluid-Dancing 0x7daf…5314 | No | SELL | 34 | 94¢ | $32 | 0x4c05a6… |
| 06-09 16:07:39 | Trusty-Carnival-Crinoline 0xc838…b09c | No | SELL | 9 | 94¢ | $8 | 0x07b627… |
| 06-09 16:07:39 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 9 | 94¢ | $8 | 0x07b627… |
| 06-09 15:48:39 | French-Lieu 0xd260…515c | No | SELL | 69 | 94¢ | $64 | 0x1129fd… |
| 06-09 15:48:39 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 69 | 94¢ | $64 | 0x1129fd… |
| 06-09 14:38:58 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 41 | 94¢ | $38 | 0x4abbe8… |
| 06-09 14:38:58 | (anonymous) 0xf455…58b3 | No | SELL | 41 | 94¢ | $38 | 0x4abbe8… |
| 06-09 14:00:34 | (anonymous) 0x0932…7f91 | No | BUY | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0x2c2707… |
| 06-09 14:00:34 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x2c2707… |
| 06-09 12:56:45 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xa59b0a… |
| 06-09 12:56:45 | Trusty-Carnival-Crinoline 0xc838…b09c | No | BUY | 9 | 94¢ | $8 | 0xa59b0a… |
| 06-09 10:07:09 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 34 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x20bb9f… |
| 06-09 10:07:09 | Fluid-Dancing 0x7daf…5314 | No | BUY | 34 | 94¢ | $32 | 0x20bb9f… |
| 06-09 10:04:19 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 54 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x972fbc… |
| 06-09 10:04:19 | Forsaken-Waiting 0x9782…619a | No | BUY | 54 | 94¢ | $50 | 0x972fbc… |
| 06-09 09:47:36 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x7dc904… |
| 06-09 09:47:36 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 101 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x7dc904… |
| 06-09 09:47:36 | (anonymous) 0xea29…43e3 | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x7dc904… |
| 06-09 09:46:27 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x576950… |
| 06-09 09:46:27 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x576950… |
| 06-09 09:46:25 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 101 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x3d0f20… |
| 06-09 09:46:25 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x3d0f20… |
| 06-09 09:46:25 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x3d0f20… |
| 06-09 09:46:09 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x24f2f8… |
| 06-09 09:46:09 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x24f2f8… |
| 06-09 09:45:43 | Idolized-Basket 0xd248…b919 | No | BUY | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0x63bcdd… |
| 06-09 09:45:43 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0x63bcdd… |
| 06-09 09:45:42 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 21 | 94¢ | $20 | 0xd7c99b… |
| 06-09 09:45:42 | (anonymous) 0x8d2e…f022 | No | BUY | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0xd7c99b… |
| 06-09 09:45:42 | Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere 0x9ad0…bf3d | No | BUY | 250 | 94¢ | $235 | 0xd7c99b… |
| 06-09 09:45:42 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 101 | 6¢ | $6 | 0xd7c99b… |
| 06-09 09:45:42 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | BUY | 1,488 | 6¢ | $91 | 0xd7c99b… |
| 06-09 09:45:42 | (anonymous) 0xe120…283e | No | BUY | 674 | 94¢ | $633 | 0xd7c99b… |
| 06-09 09:45:42 | Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | BUY | 28 | 94¢ | $26 | 0xd7c99b… |
| 06-09 09:45:42 | (anonymous) 0x3365…972a | No | BUY | 12 | 94¢ | $12 | 0xd7c99b… |
| 06-09 09:45:42 | (anonymous) 0xea29…43e3 | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0xd7c99b… |
| 06-09 09:44:39 | French-Lieu 0xd260…515c | No | BUY | 69 | 94¢ | $65 | 0x804054… |
| 06-09 09:44:39 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 69 | 94¢ | $65 | 0x804054… |
| 06-09 09:44:24 | (anonymous) 0xea29…43e3 | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x84eede… |
| 06-09 09:44:24 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 41 | 94¢ | $39 | 0x84eede… |
| 06-09 09:44:24 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 21 | 94¢ | $20 | 0x84eede… |
| 06-09 09:42:54 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x8ec8d1… |
| 06-09 09:42:54 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x8ec8d1… |
| 06-09 09:39:57 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x49f3ea… |
| 06-09 09:39:57 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x49f3ea… |
| 06-09 09:33:52 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 21 | 94¢ | $20 | 0x3a8728… |
| 06-09 09:33:52 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 21 | 94¢ | $20 | 0x3a8728… |
| 06-09 09:33:52 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 42 | 94¢ | $40 | 0x3a8728… |
| 06-09 09:32:31 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x463b55… |
| 06-09 09:32:31 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x463b55… |
| 06-09 09:31:28 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 21 | 94¢ | $20 | 0x834b7c… |
| 06-09 09:31:28 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 79 | 94¢ | $74 | 0x834b7c… |
| 06-09 09:31:28 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x834b7c… |
| 06-09 09:30:25 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x362705… |
| 06-09 09:30:25 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x362705… |
| 06-09 09:29:54 | (anonymous) 0xddd1…02b9 | No | BUY | 150 | 94¢ | $141 | 0x394937… |
| 06-09 09:29:54 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 200 | 94¢ | $188 | 0x394937… |
| 06-09 09:29:54 | (anonymous) 0x0814…1f30 | No | BUY | 20 | 94¢ | $19 | 0x394937… |
| 06-09 09:29:54 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | BUY | 1,285 | 6¢ | $76 | 0x394937… |
| 06-09 09:29:54 | (anonymous) 0xc553…07f3 | No | BUY | 365 | 94¢ | $343 | 0x394937… |
| 06-09 09:29:54 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 21 | 94¢ | $20 | 0x394937… |
| 06-09 09:29:54 | (anonymous) 0xe120…283e | No | BUY | 326 | 94¢ | $307 | 0x394937… |
| 06-09 09:29:54 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 101 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x394937… |
| 06-09 08:53:00 | Gleeful-Compass 0xf206…b7a1 | No | SELL | 42 | 94¢ | $40 | 0xa0671d… |
| 06-09 08:53:00 | (anonymous) 0x0814…1f30 | No | BUY | 27 | 94¢ | $26 | 0xa0671d… |
| 06-09 08:53:00 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 15 | 94¢ | $14 | 0xa0671d… |
| 06-09 08:36:42 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0x6267a5… |
| 06-09 08:36:42 | (anonymous) 0xf455…58b3 | No | BUY | 41 | 94¢ | $38 | 0x6267a5… |
| 06-09 07:43:16 | Straight-Adult 0xdbdd…873d | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xeeca03… |
| 06-09 07:43:16 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xeeca03… |
| 06-09 07:24:43 | Straight-Adult 0xdbdd…873d | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xd45731… |
| 06-09 07:24:43 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xd45731… |