Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$53,876
$313 in 24h
Trades
1,686
Unique wallets
429
Liquidity
$72,349
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-16 03:17
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+94.8¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $264
vs crowd: 5% YES on $29.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 19 | $72 | $5.4K | $5.3K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 23 | $293 | $5.6K | $5.3K |
| 🐟 Fish | 119 | $79 | $11.4K | $11.4K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 268 | $1.1K | $5.2K | $4.1K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $264 | — | +$264 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 12 | $3 | $218 | $215 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $20 | $123 | $103 |
| Median | 146 | — | $2.7K | $2.7K |
| Below median | 131 | $2 | $4.2K | $4.2K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 15 | $9 | $1.2K | $1.2K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 10 | — | $1.1K | $1.1K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $69 | $167 | $98 |
| unranked | 101 | $1.1K | $17.9K | $16.7K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distorted-Dude 0xe36f…cd91 | No | +3,420 | $3,232 | $3,232 | 5 | 06-03 19:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x27b3…01bb | No | +3,000 | $2,847 | $2,847 | 8 | 06-04 17:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xc553…07f3 | No | +2,100 | $1,974 | $1,974 | 21 | 06-09 09:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xe120…283e | No | +1,983 | $1,869 | $1,869 | 22 | 06-09 09:45 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +1,959 | $90 | $437 | 279 | 06-15 18:07 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | +1,800 | $55 | $55 | 3 | 06-13 08:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x2468…4826 | Yes | +1,726 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-05 01:19 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +871 | $824 | $824 | 6 | 06-04 07:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | Yes | +731 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 06-04 10:28 |
| Harmonious-Mozzarella 0xeda7…e3d5 | No | +527 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 06-02 09:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xe9e8…7b51 | Yes | +403 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 06-13 08:32 |
| Necessary-Scope 0x9d99…4439 | No | +351 | $331 | $1,173 | 4 | 06-12 21:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xca22…2ee7 | No | +333 | $314 | $314 | 1 | 06-08 05:26 |
| Smart-Average 0x161a…b515 | No | +319 | $300 | $300 | 3 | 06-10 14:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xb792…8e7d | Yes | +300 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-13 08:32 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | +300 | $12 | $12 | 3 | 06-13 08:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xe1e1…d250 | No | +283 | $267 | $267 | 1 | 06-06 17:17 |
| Internal-Hospitality 0x535f…9667 | Yes | +205 | $8 | $18 | 3 | 06-12 21:46 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | +200 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 21:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x659c…d142 | Yes | +200 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 21:46 |
| Demanding-Entrepreneur 0x1d10…3bdd | No | +200 | $188 | $188 | 1 | 06-09 16:46 |
| Velvety-Outlaw 0x1ee7…4ea8 | No | +197 | $187 | $187 | 6 | 06-05 01:19 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | +175 | $168 | $168 | 9 | 06-15 08:17 |
| Assured-Photo 0x1d43…cf5f | No | +162 | $153 | $296 | 3 | 06-08 05:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xe6a9…705a | No | +116 | $112 | $112 | 1 | 06-14 07:51 |
| Admirable-Hydrocarbon 0xa0cd…85f2 | No | +115 | $110 | $110 | 1 | 06-15 13:28 |
| Friendly-Mare 0xb100…673f | No | +111 | $105 | $105 | 1 | 06-05 07:05 |
| Helpful-Coal 0x9783…264f | No | +100 | $94 | $94 | 1 | 06-10 06:06 |
| Incomplete-Cherry 0x107f…bb8c | No | +100 | $94 | $94 | 1 | 06-05 01:19 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +93 | $88 | $88 | 1 | 06-05 07:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x3994…4b80 | No | +92 | $87 | $87 | 1 | 06-08 05:26 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | +68 | $61 | $254 | 4 | 06-13 08:32 |
| Kind-Senator 0x4b91…982d | Yes | +63 | $2 | $16 | 4 | 06-13 08:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x9764…84a0 | Yes | +57 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-08 23:19 |
| Regal-Landscape 0xbe04…9b5f | No | +57 | $55 | $55 | 1 | 06-15 17:28 |
| Taut-Pate 0x1f06…33b3 | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 3 | 06-11 13:06 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 03:17:37 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 42 | 96¢ | $40 | 0x3252aa… |
| 06-16 03:17:37 | Gummy-Love 0xe6ff…e0ff | No | SELL | 55 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x3252aa… |
| 06-16 03:17:37 | (anonymous) 0x23b0…a7c8 | No | BUY | 13 | 96¢ | $12 | 0x3252aa… |
| 06-16 03:03:19 | (anonymous) 0xc81c…d737 | No | SELL | 45 | 96¢ | $43 | 0x6e71f1… |
| 06-16 03:03:19 | Mad-Hippodrome-Invention 0xe48d…4144 | No | BUY | 45 | 96¢ | $43 | 0x6e71f1… |
| 06-16 02:50:31 | Forceful-Orchid 0xa01e…45e7 | No | SELL | 28 | 96¢ | $27 | 0xe35d24… |
| 06-16 02:50:31 | (anonymous) 0x23b0…a7c8 | No | BUY | 28 | 96¢ | $27 | 0xe35d24… |
| 06-16 02:04:51 | Aware-Jeweller 0xeeb0…e43d | No | SELL | 44 | 96¢ | $43 | 0xebea05… |
| 06-16 02:04:51 | (anonymous) 0x23b0…a7c8 | No | BUY | 44 | 96¢ | $43 | 0xebea05… |
| 06-15 22:47:04 | Greedy-Chapter 0x0f6f…596b | No | SELL | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0xb8472e… |
| 06-15 22:47:04 | (anonymous) 0x23b0…a7c8 | No | BUY | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0xb8472e… |
| 06-15 22:16:33 | Keen-Iris 0x82c0…e17e | No | SELL | 51 | 96¢ | $49 | 0x816d8d… |
| 06-15 22:16:33 | (anonymous) 0x131b…1ede | No | BUY | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0x816d8d… |
| 06-15 22:16:33 | (anonymous) 0x23b0…a7c8 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x816d8d… |
| 06-15 22:16:33 | (anonymous) 0xe826…83bc | No | BUY | 48 | 96¢ | $46 | 0x816d8d… |
| 06-15 22:06:46 | (anonymous) 0xac00…b58d | No | BUY | 25 | 96¢ | $24 | 0x52ecd9… |
| 06-15 22:06:46 | (anonymous) 0x79ed…473e | No | SELL | 25 | 96¢ | $24 | 0x52ecd9… |
| 06-15 21:13:45 | (anonymous) 0x79ed…473e | No | SELL | 55 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x279ce9… |
| 06-15 21:13:45 | Gummy-Love 0xe6ff…e0ff | No | BUY | 55 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x279ce9… |
| 06-15 18:45:46 | Feline-Discipline 0x41e1…8afe | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x8ee1fe… |
| 06-15 18:45:46 | Favorable-Windchime 0x5352…32a8 | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x8ee1fe… |
| 06-15 18:45:46 | (anonymous) 0x79ed…473e | No | SELL | 11 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x8ee1fe… |
| 06-15 18:45:46 | Well-Made-Examination 0x0bb7…c9fe | No | SELL | 0 | 96¢ | $0 | 0x8ee1fe… |
| 06-15 18:45:46 | (anonymous) 0xfb1f…41ae | Yes | SELL | 26 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x8ee1fe… |
| 06-15 18:22:31 | Specific-Finish 0x2e45…6b03 | No | SELL | 41 | 96¢ | $40 | 0x8da9b9… |
| 06-15 18:22:31 | (anonymous) 0x131b…1ede | No | BUY | 41 | 96¢ | $40 | 0x8da9b9… |
| 06-15 18:13:21 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | SELL | 23 | 96¢ | $22 | 0x9864e8… |
| 06-15 18:13:21 | Well-Made-Examination 0x0bb7…c9fe | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x9864e8… |
| 06-15 18:13:21 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 15 | 96¢ | $14 | 0x9864e8… |
| 06-15 18:13:21 | Acceptable-Crawdad 0xd4c0…2b7f | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x9864e8… |
| 06-15 18:13:21 | Keen-Iris 0x82c0…e17e | No | BUY | 51 | 96¢ | $49 | 0x9864e8… |
| 06-15 18:07:19 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 91 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x5c6a05… |
| 06-15 18:07:19 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 17 | 96¢ | $17 | 0x5c6a05… |
| 06-15 18:07:19 | (anonymous) 0x92c1…0586 | No | SELL | 129 | 96¢ | $124 | 0x5c6a05… |
| 06-15 18:07:19 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x5c6a05… |
| 06-15 17:59:00 | Aware-Jeweller 0xeeb0…e43d | No | BUY | 44 | 96¢ | $43 | 0x1f0303… |
| 06-15 17:59:00 | (anonymous) 0x06ec…16d6 | No | SELL | 28 | 96¢ | $27 | 0x1f0303… |
| 06-15 17:59:00 | Jubilant-Oxford 0x6032…fde9 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x1f0303… |
| 06-15 17:59:00 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 4 | 96¢ | $4 | 0x1f0303… |
| 06-15 17:59:00 | Imaginary-Corporal 0x3e65…9d5f | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x1f0303… |
| 06-15 17:28:06 | Regal-Landscape 0xbe04…9b5f | No | BUY | 57 | 96¢ | $55 | 0xb9bd30… |
| 06-15 17:28:06 | (anonymous) 0x06ec…16d6 | No | SELL | 22 | 96¢ | $21 | 0xb9bd30… |
| 06-15 17:28:06 | (anonymous) 0xe591…5a78 | No | SELL | 36 | 96¢ | $34 | 0xb9bd30… |
| 06-15 16:39:42 | Greedy-Chapter 0x0f6f…596b | No | BUY | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x8929e9… |
| 06-15 16:39:42 | (anonymous) 0xe591…5a78 | No | SELL | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x8929e9… |
| 06-15 16:24:33 | (anonymous) 0xe591…5a78 | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xc05583… |
| 06-15 16:24:33 | Sorrowful-Virus 0x0dcc…d287 | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xc05583… |
| 06-15 15:05:13 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 105 | 96¢ | $101 | 0x99e7ce… |
| 06-15 15:05:13 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x99e7ce… |
| 06-15 15:05:13 | Vivid-Archaeology 0x2b3c…c2e9 | No | SELL | 115 | 96¢ | $111 | 0x99e7ce… |
| 06-15 14:24:19 | (anonymous) 0x5eb2…8c03 | No | SELL | 4 | 96¢ | $4 | 0xebfb42… |
| 06-15 14:24:19 | (anonymous) 0xe591…5a78 | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xebfb42… |
| 06-15 14:24:19 | Leafy-Banquette 0xb77d…28bc | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xebfb42… |
| 06-15 14:06:25 | Vivid-Archaeology 0x2b3c…c2e9 | No | BUY | 115 | 96¢ | $111 | 0x321b9a… |
| 06-15 14:06:25 | (anonymous) 0x5eb2…8c03 | No | SELL | 115 | 96¢ | $111 | 0x321b9a… |
| 06-15 13:28:19 | (anonymous) 0x38c3…167c | No | SELL | 84 | 96¢ | $81 | 0xf1f607… |
| 06-15 13:28:19 | Admirable-Hydrocarbon 0xa0cd…85f2 | No | BUY | 115 | 96¢ | $110 | 0xf1f607… |
| 06-15 13:28:19 | (anonymous) 0x5eb2…8c03 | No | SELL | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0xf1f607… |
| 06-15 13:05:09 | Entire-Comradeship 0x7408…0d0a | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x1024d2… |
| 06-15 13:05:09 | (anonymous) 0x38c3…167c | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x1024d2… |
| 06-15 12:22:57 | (anonymous) 0x38c3…167c | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xfcfea9… |
| 06-15 12:22:57 | Welcome-Plough 0x5124…598e | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xfcfea9… |
| 06-15 10:21:27 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | BUY | 23 | 96¢ | $22 | 0x3ee8c6… |
| 06-15 10:21:27 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 23 | 96¢ | $22 | 0x3ee8c6… |
| 06-15 10:21:24 | Specific-Finish 0x2e45…6b03 | No | BUY | 41 | 96¢ | $40 | 0x834454… |
| 06-15 10:21:24 | (anonymous) 0x38c3…167c | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x834454… |
| 06-15 10:21:24 | (anonymous) 0x6c2b…91e7 | No | SELL | 41 | 96¢ | $39 | 0x834454… |
| 06-15 09:20:04 | (anonymous) 0x6c2b…91e7 | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0xad173e… |
| 06-15 09:20:04 | Sunny-Dredger 0x6724…84ef | No | BUY | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0xad173e… |
| 06-15 08:52:10 | Helpless-Ambience 0xd9b3…74c4 | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x2f9dd9… |
| 06-15 08:52:10 | (anonymous) 0x6c2b…91e7 | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x2f9dd9… |
| 06-15 08:17:25 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x64cbb5… |
| 06-15 08:17:25 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x64cbb5… |
| 06-15 08:17:25 | (anonymous) 0xfb1f…41ae | Yes | BUY | 26 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x64cbb5… |
| 06-15 07:38:12 | (anonymous) 0x6c2b…91e7 | No | SELL | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0xaed8bb… |
| 06-15 07:38:12 | Muddy-Centre 0x7b41…1955 | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0xaed8bb… |
| 06-15 06:20:31 | Used-Tanker 0xd461…b392 | No | SELL | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x23f9fe… |
| 06-15 06:20:31 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x23f9fe… |
| 06-15 05:58:16 | Trivial-Owner 0x1e03…d5f0 | No | BUY | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x90c2b5… |
| 06-15 05:58:16 | (anonymous) 0x6c2b…91e7 | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x90c2b5… |
| 06-15 05:48:01 | Enormous-Fluke 0x23cc…4f5a | No | SELL | 14 | 96¢ | $13 | 0x4bc9c1… |
| 06-15 05:48:01 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 14 | 96¢ | $13 | 0x4bc9c1… |
| 06-15 02:15:37 | (anonymous) 0x6c2b…91e7 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x856f93… |
| 06-15 02:15:37 | (anonymous) 0x9052…383a | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x856f93… |
| 06-15 02:15:37 | Sparkling-Shred 0x1105…54b7 | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0x856f93… |
| 06-15 00:33:06 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf18e0f… |
| 06-15 00:33:06 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf18e0f… |
| 06-15 00:25:51 | (anonymous) 0x9052…383a | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xb91a55… |
| 06-15 00:25:51 | Favorable-Windchime 0x5352…32a8 | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xb91a55… |
| 06-14 22:52:42 | Frightened-Chauvinist 0x2326…bd49 | No | SELL | 56 | 96¢ | $54 | 0x823a25… |
| 06-14 22:52:42 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x823a25… |
| 06-14 22:52:27 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0xcc691a… |
| 06-14 22:52:27 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0xcc691a… |
| 06-14 22:52:22 | (anonymous) 0x9052…383a | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x30b249… |
| 06-14 22:52:22 | Feline-Discipline 0x41e1…8afe | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x30b249… |
| 06-14 22:13:00 | (anonymous) 0x9052…383a | No | SELL | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x63de98… |
| 06-14 22:13:00 | Used-Tanker 0xd461…b392 | No | BUY | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x63de98… |
| 06-14 21:50:40 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 15 | 96¢ | $14 | 0xf50be0… |
| 06-14 21:50:40 | Good-Natured-Time 0xe328…9f4a | No | SELL | 15 | 96¢ | $14 | 0xf50be0… |
| 06-14 21:22:48 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xbd0a56… |