Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$77,183
$313 in 24h
Trades
2,360
Unique wallets
560
Liquidity
$72,349
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-08 00:21
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+55.3¢
(top1%: 60% YES on $572
vs crowd: 4% YES on $44.7K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 22 | $106 | $5.8K | $5.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 27 | $366 | $15.0K | $14.7K |
| 🐟 Fish | 176 | $1.3K | $16.4K | $15.1K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 335 | $180 | $5.5K | $5.3K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 4 | $342 | $230 | +$112 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 17 | $4 | $6.6K | $6.6K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 8 | $20 | $123 | $103 |
| Median | 165 | $1 | $3.3K | $3.2K |
| Below median | 187 | $4 | $6.4K | $6.4K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 16 | $9 | $1.7K | $1.7K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 10 | — | $1.8K | $1.8K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $69 | $167 | $98 |
| unranked | 148 | $1.5K | $22.5K | $21.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | +6,421 | $527 | $1,870 | 18 | 07-08 00:21 |
| Pleasant-Councilor 0x42fa…1fc7 | No | +6,374 | $6,125 | $6,125 | 2 | 07-08 00:21 |
| Distorted-Dude 0xe36f…cd91 | No | +3,420 | $3,232 | $3,232 | 5 | 06-03 19:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x27b3…01bb | No | +3,000 | $2,847 | $2,847 | 8 | 06-04 17:37 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +2,152 | $94 | $583 | 351 | 07-08 00:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xc553…07f3 | No | +2,100 | $1,974 | $1,974 | 21 | 06-09 09:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xe120…283e | No | +1,983 | $1,869 | $1,869 | 22 | 06-09 09:45 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | +1,800 | $55 | $55 | 3 | 06-13 08:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x2468…4826 | Yes | +1,726 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-05 01:19 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +1,236 | $1,177 | $1,177 | 16 | 07-07 15:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | Yes | +731 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 06-04 10:28 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | +723 | $694 | $694 | 22 | 07-02 15:33 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | +638 | $26 | $26 | 12 | 07-01 17:47 |
| Harmonious-Mozzarella 0xeda7…e3d5 | No | +527 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 06-02 09:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xe9e8…7b51 | Yes | +403 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 06-13 08:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xca22…2ee7 | No | +333 | $314 | $314 | 1 | 06-08 05:26 |
| Smart-Average 0x161a…b515 | No | +319 | $300 | $300 | 3 | 06-10 14:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xb792…8e7d | Yes | +300 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-13 08:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xe1e1…d250 | No | +283 | $267 | $267 | 1 | 06-06 17:17 |
| Internal-Hospitality 0x535f…9667 | Yes | +205 | $8 | $18 | 3 | 06-12 21:46 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | +200 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 21:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x659c…d142 | Yes | +200 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 21:46 |
| Demanding-Entrepreneur 0x1d10…3bdd | No | +200 | $188 | $188 | 1 | 06-09 16:46 |
| Velvety-Outlaw 0x1ee7…4ea8 | No | +197 | $187 | $187 | 6 | 06-05 01:19 |
| Assured-Photo 0x1d43…cf5f | No | +162 | $153 | $296 | 3 | 06-08 05:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x1823…8e49 | Yes | +125 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-29 14:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xe6a9…705a | No | +116 | $112 | $112 | 1 | 06-14 07:51 |
| Admirable-Hydrocarbon 0xa0cd…85f2 | No | +115 | $110 | $110 | 1 | 06-15 13:28 |
| Friendly-Mare 0xb100…673f | No | +111 | $105 | $105 | 1 | 06-05 07:05 |
| Frigid-Stallion 0x896a…7b9c | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 4 | 07-03 05:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xecdd…f5fe | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 4 | 06-17 06:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xef16…e14b | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 1 | 06-29 22:37 |
| Helpful-Coal 0x9783…264f | No | +100 | $94 | $94 | 1 | 06-10 06:06 |
| Incomplete-Cherry 0x107f…bb8c | No | +100 | $94 | $94 | 1 | 06-05 01:19 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +93 | $88 | $88 | 1 | 06-05 07:07 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +93 | $4 | $4 | 3 | 07-01 17:47 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 00:21:01 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | BUY | 6,421 | 4¢ | $250 | 0x7f12c0… |
| 07-08 00:21:01 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x7f12c0… |
| 07-08 00:21:01 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 101 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x7f12c0… |
| 07-08 00:21:01 | (anonymous) 0xea29…43e3 | No | BUY | 11 | 96¢ | $11 | 0x7f12c0… |
| 07-08 00:21:01 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x7f12c0… |
| 07-08 00:21:01 | Pleasant-Councilor 0x42fa…1fc7 | No | BUY | 6,173 | 96¢ | $5,932 | 0x7f12c0… |
| 07-07 18:44:08 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 57 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x94b499… |
| 07-07 18:44:08 | (anonymous) 0x9764…84a0 | Yes | SELL | 57 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x94b499… |
| 07-07 18:34:32 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x8846da… |
| 07-07 18:34:32 | Advanced-Airmail 0x94d7…868b | No | SELL | 165 | 96¢ | $159 | 0x8846da… |
| 07-07 18:34:32 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 99 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x8846da… |
| 07-07 18:34:32 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 16 | 97¢ | $15 | 0x8846da… |
| 07-07 18:34:32 | Willing-Grove 0xf52a…e276 | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x8846da… |
| 07-07 18:34:32 | (anonymous) 0xea29…43e3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x8846da… |
| 07-07 15:51:40 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x79c521… |
| 07-07 15:51:40 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 23 | 96¢ | $23 | 0x79c521… |
| 07-07 15:51:40 | (anonymous) 0x0cdc…9056 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x79c521… |
| 07-07 13:26:53 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf60916… |
| 07-07 13:26:53 | (anonymous) 0xd078…0090 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xf60916… |
| 07-06 22:32:25 | (anonymous) 0x1e83…dc52 | No | SELL | 33 | 96¢ | $32 | 0x9dc849… |
| 07-06 22:32:25 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 33 | 96¢ | $32 | 0x9dc849… |
| 07-06 21:12:05 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xebef9f… |
| 07-06 21:12:05 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 24 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xebef9f… |
| 07-06 21:10:25 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xa06e76… |
| 07-06 21:10:25 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xa06e76… |
| 07-06 21:08:19 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | SELL | 23 | 96¢ | $22 | 0xc42cd5… |
| 07-06 21:08:19 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xc42cd5… |
| 07-06 21:08:19 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc42cd5… |
| 07-06 21:08:19 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 101 | 4¢ | $4 | 0xc42cd5… |
| 07-06 21:08:19 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 183 | 96¢ | $177 | 0xc42cd5… |
| 07-06 21:08:19 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | SELL | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0xc42cd5… |
| 07-06 16:32:43 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0xf6b2b7… |
| 07-06 16:32:43 | Failing-Doorway 0xfe1d…219e | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xf6b2b7… |
| 07-06 16:32:43 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf6b2b7… |
| 07-06 16:32:43 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0xf6b2b7… |
| 07-06 15:48:40 | Crooked-Creature 0x0a8b…d39b | No | BUY | 52 | 96¢ | $50 | 0x0a2e5e… |
| 07-06 15:48:40 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 2 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x0a2e5e… |
| 07-06 15:48:40 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | SELL | 18 | 96¢ | $18 | 0x0a2e5e… |
| 07-06 15:48:40 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | SELL | 22 | 96¢ | $22 | 0x0a2e5e… |
| 07-06 15:48:40 | (anonymous) 0xea29…43e3 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x0a2e5e… |
| 07-06 14:31:20 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 33 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x6f5d45… |
| 07-06 14:31:20 | (anonymous) 0x1e83…dc52 | No | BUY | 33 | 96¢ | $32 | 0x6f5d45… |
| 07-06 14:04:43 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xabc090… |
| 07-06 14:04:43 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xabc090… |
| 07-06 09:56:59 | Plaintive-Physiology 0x79da…ae60 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x390717… |
| 07-06 09:56:59 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x390717… |
| 07-06 09:56:58 | (anonymous) 0xdb6b…9c63 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x3af83f… |
| 07-06 09:56:58 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x3af83f… |
| 07-06 09:56:44 | (anonymous) 0xfdbd…9a73 | No | BUY | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0xeace35… |
| 07-06 09:56:44 | Plaintive-Physiology 0x79da…ae60 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xeace35… |
| 07-06 09:56:43 | (anonymous) 0xfdbd…9a73 | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xbccbd7… |
| 07-06 09:56:43 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0xbccbd7… |
| 07-06 09:56:43 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xbccbd7… |
| 07-06 09:56:43 | (anonymous) 0xdb6b…9c63 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xbccbd7… |
| 07-06 01:56:35 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 18 | 96¢ | $18 | 0x94bcbd… |
| 07-06 01:56:35 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x94bcbd… |
| 07-06 01:56:35 | Filthy-Species 0xc7e9…c5f6 | No | SELL | 24 | 96¢ | $23 | 0x94bcbd… |
| 07-05 23:45:08 | (anonymous) 0xd9ba…252c | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x37e481… |
| 07-05 23:45:08 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x37e481… |
| 07-05 23:21:23 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 51 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x23e8a9… |
| 07-05 23:21:23 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 51 | 96¢ | $49 | 0x23e8a9… |
| 07-05 22:52:59 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0xb078a7… |
| 07-05 22:52:59 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb078a7… |
| 07-05 22:42:19 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $9 | 0x176274… |
| 07-05 22:42:19 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x176274… |
| 07-05 22:17:23 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x076b54… |
| 07-05 22:17:23 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x076b54… |
| 07-05 19:55:26 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 24 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x207c10… |
| 07-05 19:55:26 | Filthy-Species 0xc7e9…c5f6 | No | BUY | 24 | 96¢ | $23 | 0x207c10… |
| 07-05 15:42:08 | (anonymous) 0xd9ba…252c | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x1d6bda… |
| 07-05 15:42:08 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x1d6bda… |
| 07-05 00:07:13 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0xbd1097… |
| 07-05 00:07:13 | Wee-Airline 0x742d…7d5e | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0xbd1097… |
| 07-04 23:02:10 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 16 | 96¢ | $15 | 0x60521f… |
| 07-04 23:02:10 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 16 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x60521f… |
| 07-04 22:22:04 | Wee-Airline 0x742d…7d5e | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x1c656f… |
| 07-04 22:22:04 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x1c656f… |
| 07-04 18:21:04 | Necessary-Scope 0x9d99…4439 | No | SELL | 201 | 96¢ | $193 | 0xd3aa36… |
| 07-04 18:21:04 | Pleasant-Councilor 0x42fa…1fc7 | No | BUY | 201 | 96¢ | $193 | 0xd3aa36… |
| 07-04 15:06:40 | (anonymous) 0x8e89…e67a | No | SELL | 45 | 96¢ | $43 | 0x0ff5cb… |
| 07-04 15:06:40 | Trifling-Thorn 0xcb5b…30f2 | No | BUY | 84 | 96¢ | $81 | 0x0ff5cb… |
| 07-04 15:06:40 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | SELL | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x0ff5cb… |
| 07-04 15:06:40 | Necessary-Scope 0x9d99…4439 | No | SELL | 18 | 96¢ | $17 | 0x0ff5cb… |
| 07-03 21:45:44 | Bountiful-Mycoplasma 0x1ee9…14b1 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x4ca779… |
| 07-03 21:45:44 | (anonymous) 0x8e89…e67a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x4ca779… |
| 07-03 16:10:23 | Giving-Estuary 0xcd23…7d3e | No | SELL | 8 | 96¢ | $8 | 0x493d1c… |
| 07-03 16:10:23 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x493d1c… |
| 07-03 15:13:22 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xbc5fb0… |
| 07-03 15:13:22 | Careless-Parking 0xf613…86c9 | No | SELL | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xbc5fb0… |
| 07-03 13:56:44 | (anonymous) 0x8e89…e67a | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xd8372d… |
| 07-03 13:56:44 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xd8372d… |
| 07-03 09:56:23 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x9b2f78… |
| 07-03 09:56:23 | Rude-Swath 0xac61…8b42 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x9b2f78… |
| 07-03 09:13:31 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x93c919… |
| 07-03 09:13:31 | (anonymous) 0xdb47…3c86 | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x93c919… |
| 07-03 08:11:14 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 7 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xe98971… |
| 07-03 08:11:14 | Careless-Parking 0xf613…86c9 | No | BUY | 7 | 96¢ | $7 | 0xe98971… |
| 07-03 08:09:58 | Giving-Estuary 0xcd23…7d3e | No | BUY | 8 | 96¢ | $8 | 0x98dd28… |
| 07-03 08:09:58 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x98dd28… |
| 07-03 05:59:10 | Fearful-Pilot 0xf035…bf45 | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0xe5f9f6… |