Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$116,999
$313 in 24h
Trades
3,045
Unique wallets
746
Liquidity
$72,349
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-27
last 07-28 13:18
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+57.4¢
(top1%: 62% YES on $621
vs crowd: 4% YES on $67.6K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 23 | $126 | $6.0K | $5.9K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 32 | $420 | $33.3K | $32.9K |
| 🐟 Fish | 218 | $2.1K | $19.4K | $17.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 471 | $228 | $6.0K | $5.8K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 4 | $383 | $239 | +$144 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 16 | $10 | $24.5K | $24.5K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 11 | $21 | $557 | $536 |
| Median | 183 | $4 | $3.5K | $3.5K |
| Below median | 207 | $7 | $7.2K | $7.2K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 17 | $18 | $2.0K | $1.9K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 29 | $12 | $2.3K | $2.3K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $69 | $167 | $98 |
| unranked | 272 | $2.3K | $24.4K | $22.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pleasant-Councilor 0x42fa…1fc7 | No | +25,000 | $24,025 | $24,025 | 5 | 07-08 15:52 |
| Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | +10,217 | $932 | $3,002 | 26 | 07-21 14:59 |
| Distorted-Dude 0xe36f…cd91 | No | +3,420 | $3,232 | $3,232 | 5 | 06-03 19:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x27b3…01bb | No | +3,000 | $2,847 | $2,847 | 8 | 06-04 17:37 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +2,963 | $121 | $625 | 373 | 07-10 06:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x2468…4826 | Yes | +2,917 | $127 | $127 | 2 | 07-11 10:19 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | +1,800 | $55 | $55 | 3 | 06-13 08:32 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +1,236 | $1,177 | $1,177 | 16 | 07-07 15:51 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | Yes | +1,101 | $37 | $37 | 25 | 07-23 00:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xe120…283e | No | +1,068 | $984 | $3,135 | 25 | 07-09 18:25 |
| Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | +980 | $943 | $943 | 35 | 07-25 16:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x7300…e52c | Yes | +731 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 06-04 10:28 |
| Harmonious-Mozzarella 0xeda7…e3d5 | No | +527 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 06-02 09:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xca22…2ee7 | No | +333 | $314 | $314 | 1 | 06-08 05:26 |
| Smart-Average 0x161a…b515 | No | +319 | $300 | $300 | 3 | 06-10 14:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xb792…8e7d | Yes | +300 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-13 08:32 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +293 | $10 | $10 | 5 | 07-10 06:15 |
| (anonymous) 0xe1e1…d250 | No | +283 | $267 | $267 | 1 | 06-06 17:17 |
| Internal-Hospitality 0x535f…9667 | Yes | +205 | $8 | $18 | 3 | 06-12 21:46 |
| Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | +201 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 07-27 07:59 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | +200 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 21:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x659c…d142 | Yes | +200 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 21:46 |
| Velvety-Outlaw 0x1ee7…4ea8 | No | +197 | $187 | $187 | 6 | 06-05 01:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x1823…8e49 | Yes | +125 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-29 14:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6bf…d892 | Yes | +118 | $3 | $3 | 15 | 07-19 06:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xe6a9…705a | No | +116 | $112 | $112 | 1 | 06-14 07:51 |
| Admirable-Hydrocarbon 0xa0cd…85f2 | No | +115 | $110 | $110 | 1 | 06-15 13:28 |
| Friendly-Mare 0xb100…673f | No | +111 | $105 | $105 | 1 | 06-05 07:05 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 13:18:58 | (anonymous) 0xdefe…22aa | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xfdbe78… |
| 07-28 13:18:58 | (anonymous) 0x83f1…6eeb | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xfdbe78… |
| 07-28 13:13:47 | (anonymous) 0xb171…a8a0 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x7d6d2c… |
| 07-28 13:13:47 | (anonymous) 0x83f1…6eeb | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x7d6d2c… |
| 07-28 12:56:52 | (anonymous) 0x2d63…ad8a | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $7 | 0x3ac2d2… |
| 07-28 12:56:52 | (anonymous) 0x6a2c…7114 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x3ac2d2… |
| 07-28 12:56:52 | (anonymous) 0x83f1…6eeb | No | BUY | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0x3ac2d2… |
| 07-28 08:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x6a2c…7114 | No | BUY | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x7bd2aa… |
| 07-28 08:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x1eb2…dc10 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x7bd2aa… |
| 07-28 08:02:49 | (anonymous) 0x9a9e…c6e9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4b3c59… |
| 07-28 08:02:49 | (anonymous) 0x1eb2…dc10 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x4b3c59… |
| 07-28 08:01:43 | (anonymous) 0x9a9e…c6e9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x082e02… |
| 07-28 08:01:43 | (anonymous) 0x1eb2…dc10 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x082e02… |
| 07-27 20:04:33 | (anonymous) 0x9a9e…c6e9 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x45cfd9… |
| 07-27 20:04:33 | (anonymous) 0xe85e…fd9f | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x45cfd9… |
| 07-27 15:21:55 | (anonymous) 0x6a2c…7114 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x0bd56d… |
| 07-27 15:21:55 | (anonymous) 0x8301…bcd6 | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x0bd56d… |
| 07-27 15:17:34 | (anonymous) 0x5414…ea9c | No | SELL | 19 | 98¢ | $18 | 0x12ec2f… |
| 07-27 15:17:34 | (anonymous) 0x6a2c…7114 | No | BUY | 19 | 98¢ | $18 | 0x12ec2f… |
| 07-27 14:45:25 | (anonymous) 0x27ce…fac2 | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0xda7294… |
| 07-27 14:45:25 | (anonymous) 0x6a2c…7114 | No | BUY | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0xda7294… |
| 07-27 14:36:22 | (anonymous) 0x6a2c…7114 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x5d221e… |
| 07-27 14:36:22 | Conventional-Everything 0xec97…2fbd | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x5d221e… |
| 07-27 14:08:28 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x0eb74a… |
| 07-27 14:08:28 | (anonymous) 0xe164…0d40 | No | SELL | 6 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x0eb74a… |
| 07-27 14:08:28 | (anonymous) 0x6a2c…7114 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x0eb74a… |
| 07-27 13:01:27 | (anonymous) 0x9a48…7b3f | No | SELL | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0xdb19f6… |
| 07-27 13:01:27 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0xdb19f6… |
| 07-27 11:51:28 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 2 | 98¢ | $2 | 0x1723d7… |
| 07-27 11:51:28 | (anonymous) 0x61b0…090b | No | SELL | 2 | 98¢ | $2 | 0x1723d7… |
| 07-27 11:40:31 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0x6d6a56… |
| 07-27 11:40:31 | (anonymous) 0x399e…c14e | No | SELL | 6 | 98¢ | $6 | 0x6d6a56… |
| 07-27 11:31:06 | (anonymous) 0x1bf9…3e46 | No | SELL | 13 | 98¢ | $12 | 0xaebcc5… |
| 07-27 11:31:06 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 13 | 98¢ | $12 | 0xaebcc5… |
| 07-27 11:26:24 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0x5f728b… |
| 07-27 11:26:24 | (anonymous) 0xac32…cd21 | No | SELL | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0x5f728b… |
| 07-27 11:23:42 | (anonymous) 0xb073…4dcf | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x42c6cf… |
| 07-27 11:23:42 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x42c6cf… |
| 07-27 11:10:00 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 15 | 98¢ | $15 | 0x650bd3… |
| 07-27 11:10:00 | (anonymous) 0x8bee…80e3 | No | SELL | 15 | 98¢ | $15 | 0x650bd3… |
| 07-27 08:33:19 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 29 | 98¢ | $29 | 0x082ed4… |
| 07-27 08:33:19 | (anonymous) 0xfffb…5f95 | No | SELL | 29 | 98¢ | $29 | 0x082ed4… |
| 07-27 08:27:52 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 12 | 98¢ | $12 | 0x087e40… |
| 07-27 08:27:52 | (anonymous) 0xec6c…6739 | No | SELL | 12 | 98¢ | $12 | 0x087e40… |
| 07-27 08:15:15 | (anonymous) 0xbc39…cb86 | No | SELL | 2 | 98¢ | $2 | 0xa247d5… |
| 07-27 08:15:15 | Creamy-Impostor 0x3714…9ce3 | No | BUY | 2 | 98¢ | $2 | 0xa247d5… |
| 07-27 07:59:22 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | BUY | 106 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x0489bc… |
| 07-27 07:59:22 | (anonymous) 0x8dd0…647b | No | BUY | 61 | 98¢ | $60 | 0x0489bc… |
| 07-27 07:59:22 | (anonymous) 0x96e9…a769 | No | BUY | 45 | 98¢ | $44 | 0x0489bc… |
| 07-25 16:49:55 | Plaintive-Physiology 0x79da…ae60 | Yes | SELL | 57 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x42acc8… |
| 07-25 16:49:55 | (anonymous) 0x8bbe…b9dc | No | SELL | 57 | 99¢ | $56 | 0x42acc8… |
| 07-25 16:49:54 | (anonymous) 0xdb6b…9c63 | Yes | SELL | 58 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xcb5de1… |
| 07-25 16:49:54 | (anonymous) 0x8bbe…b9dc | No | SELL | 58 | 99¢ | $57 | 0xcb5de1… |
| 07-25 16:49:21 | (anonymous) 0xdb6b…9c63 | Yes | BUY | 58 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x222e6b… |
| 07-25 16:49:21 | Plaintive-Physiology 0x79da…ae60 | Yes | BUY | 57 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xb26af2… |
| 07-25 16:49:21 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 38 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xb26af2… |
| 07-25 16:49:21 | Wiggly-Colloquy 0xbd41…a6de | No | BUY | 19 | 98¢ | $18 | 0xb26af2… |
| 07-25 16:49:21 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 58 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x222e6b… |
| 07-25 13:50:51 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 95 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x1dfd4e… |
| 07-25 13:50:51 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | Yes | BUY | 95 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x1dfd4e… |
| 07-25 03:56:04 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x494c75… |
| 07-25 03:56:04 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x494c75… |
| 07-24 14:17:24 | (anonymous) 0xd268…755f | No | BUY | 103 | 98¢ | $101 | 0x118782… |
| 07-24 14:17:24 | (anonymous) 0x87bb…f672 | No | BUY | 58 | 99¢ | $57 | 0x118782… |
| 07-24 14:17:24 | (anonymous) 0x8bbe…b9dc | No | SELL | 210 | 98¢ | $207 | 0x118782… |
| 07-24 14:17:24 | (anonymous) 0x985d…0b1a | No | BUY | 49 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x118782… |
| 07-24 09:56:45 | (anonymous) 0xd268…755f | No | BUY | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0x1e0a36… |
| 07-24 09:56:45 | (anonymous) 0x4c83…25a5 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x1e0a36… |
| 07-24 09:56:45 | Soggy-Hazel 0x75d1…c4d0 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x1e0a36… |
| 07-24 08:38:22 | (anonymous) 0x275b…7ae0 | No | SELL | 18 | 98¢ | $18 | 0x676e2e… |
| 07-24 08:38:22 | Soggy-Hazel 0x75d1…c4d0 | No | BUY | 18 | 98¢ | $18 | 0x676e2e… |
| 07-24 08:21:58 | (anonymous) 0xdf43…1681 | No | SELL | 23 | 98¢ | $23 | 0x4177bc… |
| 07-24 08:21:58 | Soggy-Hazel 0x75d1…c4d0 | No | BUY | 23 | 98¢ | $23 | 0x4177bc… |
| 07-24 08:20:28 | Soggy-Hazel 0x75d1…c4d0 | No | BUY | 25 | 98¢ | $24 | 0xca7270… |
| 07-24 08:20:28 | (anonymous) 0xab19…0890 | No | SELL | 25 | 98¢ | $24 | 0xca7270… |
| 07-23 16:18:15 | (anonymous) 0xea29…43e3 | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x6762ef… |
| 07-23 16:18:15 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x6762ef… |
| 07-23 14:57:36 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3adccd… |
| 07-23 14:57:36 | (anonymous) 0x0948…469e | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x3adccd… |
| 07-23 14:12:06 | (anonymous) 0x7442…1f3e | No | SELL | 15 | 98¢ | $15 | 0xfa011a… |
| 07-23 14:12:06 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfa011a… |
| 07-23 13:50:48 | (anonymous) 0x0b13…be31 | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0xf13c70… |
| 07-23 13:50:48 | (anonymous) 0xea29…43e3 | No | BUY | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0xf13c70… |
| 07-23 13:48:24 | (anonymous) 0x59b2…a9ac | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x9da83c… |
| 07-23 13:48:24 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x9da83c… |
| 07-23 13:48:24 | (anonymous) 0xea29…43e3 | No | SELL | 12 | 98¢ | $12 | 0x9da83c… |
| 07-23 13:41:58 | (anonymous) 0xa939…5bcd | No | SELL | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0xd9b527… |
| 07-23 13:41:58 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xd9b527… |
| 07-23 13:32:51 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x6ae868… |
| 07-23 13:32:51 | (anonymous) 0x679b…aceb | No | SELL | 11 | 98¢ | $11 | 0x6ae868… |
| 07-23 13:01:57 | (anonymous) 0xb64d…4d5a | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0xfab147… |
| 07-23 13:01:57 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfab147… |
| 07-23 12:59:58 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x847863… |
| 07-23 12:59:58 | (anonymous) 0x0630…d5cc | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0x847863… |
| 07-23 12:35:34 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x6b2b9a… |
| 07-23 12:35:34 | (anonymous) 0xbadb…cc75 | No | SELL | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x6b2b9a… |
| 07-23 12:23:51 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc0f1d7… |
| 07-23 12:23:51 | (anonymous) 0xb83e…62cc | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xc0f1d7… |
| 07-23 11:03:30 | (anonymous) 0x6ec7…6ee6 | No | SELL | 10 | 98¢ | $10 | 0x5d4d11… |
| 07-23 11:03:30 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x5d4d11… |