Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d029…241f8a
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$259.3K
Unrealized P&L
+$26.4K
Hit rate
70.3%
Resolved
45,810
Trades
392,839
lifetime
Volume
$11.4M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$29
Open exposure
$158.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-23
last 10-28 12:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 189 days
Categories
Other
63% 46% +$162,714
Politics
26% 55% +$68,512
Sports
6% 43% +$32,522
Tech
3% 56% +$2,289
Crypto
2% 46% -$7,943
Pop-Culture
0% 61% +$1,219
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 3138 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +15,967 $13,042 99¢ $15.7K +$2,693 10-28 12:36
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +14,139 $5,087 97¢ $13.7K +$8,642 10-25 17:29
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 No +19,927 $6,601 65¢ $12.9K +$6,292 10-26 00:20
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +12,544 $8,814 66¢ $8.3K -$485 10-28 03:04
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +11,015 $5,602 69¢ $7.6K +$1,965 10-28 12:02
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 Yes +21,187 $13,248 35¢ $7.5K -$5,769 10-28 10:14
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +7,306 $5,890 77¢ $5.6K -$246 10-28 12:14
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +5,134 $3,752 100¢ $5.1K +$1,377 10-27 19:37
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +4,945 $4,816 98¢ $4.8K +$17 10-28 06:18
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? No +5,230 $3,936 91¢ $4.8K +$831 10-26 17:02
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No +5,546 $4,578 84¢ $4.7K +$100 10-28 07:55
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? No +4,723 $4,100 97¢ $4.6K +$481 10-28 02:27
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +4,296 $2,384 98¢ $4.2K +$1,848 10-27 23:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +4,355 $3,668 95¢ $4.1K +$469 10-28 12:31
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? No +4,967 $4,128 82¢ $4.1K -$50 10-27 18:55
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? No +4,218 $827 94¢ $3.9K +$3,117 09-14 10:38
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +4,241 $3,404 90¢ $3.8K +$400 10-27 06:11
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +4,970 $3,531 74¢ $3.7K +$123 10-24 12:16
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +3,897 $3,705 92¢ $3.6K -$114 10-27 05:04
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +3,676 $2,500 96¢ $3.5K +$1,043 10-26 23:00
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +10,236 $2,376 34¢ $3.4K +$1,063 10-28 03:02
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No +3,555 $3,222 97¢ $3.4K +$213 10-27 01:18
Will G2 Esports win Worlds 2026? No +3,340 $3,081 99¢ $3.3K +$238 10-26 18:54
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026 No +3,305 $2,241 100¢ $3.3K +$1,059 10-05 09:57
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +3,375 $3,039 98¢ $3.3K +$256 10-27 20:30
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? No +4,008 $2,757 82¢ $3.3K +$532 10-24 21:17
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +3,268 $3,105 97¢ $3.2K +$56 10-26 20:58
Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +3,226 $3,030 96¢ $3.1K +$62 10-25 18:55
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +3,558 $2,974 86¢ $3.0K +$75 10-26 12:41
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +3,022 $2,938 100¢ $3.0K +$81 10-27 23:41