Harmonious-Mozzarella — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$47

Unrealized P&L

+$168

Hit rate

80.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$14.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$148

Open exposure

$6.01K

16 positions

First seen

2026-03-15

last 10-24 12:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

39% 71% -$50

Politics

30% — —

Crypto

22% 100% +$3

Tech

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+1,099	$1,000	92¢	$1.0K	+$16	10-10 20:31
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+851	$700	99¢	$839	+$139	06-17 22:33
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+749	$700	98¢	$733	+$33	05-31 22:04
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+833	$700	82¢	$683	-$17	07-23 16:09
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+550	$500	99¢	$542	+$42	06-13 11:32
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+349	$325	97¢	$338	+$13	05-31 22:23
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+307	$300	99¢	$304	+$4	06-02 10:26
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+312	$300	97¢	$303	+$3	06-15 22:51
Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	+309	$300	97¢	$299	-$1	10-10 20:46
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+211	$200	96¢	$201	+$1	07-23 16:25
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+228	$200	84¢	$191	-$9	10-10 21:17
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+233	$200	80¢	$187	-$13	10-10 20:28
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+173	$150	88¢	$152	+$2	10-19 16:27
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+109	$100	98¢	$107	+$6	06-02 10:37
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+106	$100	92¢	$98	-$2	07-23 16:25
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+749	$66	2¢	$17	-$49	05-31 22:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 12:09:11	Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x81b00b…
10-21 11:09:38	Will Christine Lagarde win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	57	100¢	$56	0xd88f89…
10-21 11:00:09	Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	209	58¢	$121	0x74fb65…
10-21 10:59:27	Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	49	31¢	$15	0x3d2689…
10-21 10:59:27	Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	27¢	$16	0x1f90b0…
10-21 10:56:32	Will Édouard Philippe win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	209	11¢	$24	0x18ea30…
10-19 16:27:35	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x32f454…
10-13 14:11:26	Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	269	12¢	$32	0xe62393…
10-13 14:11:04	Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	269	90¢	$242	0x4bb1f7…
10-13 14:10:37	Will Marine Le Pen win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	269	82¢	$221	0x488052…
10-13 14:04:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	527	99¢	$524	0x167d8f…
10-13 14:01:59	Will Dominique de Villepin win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x3a3971…
10-12 23:16:02	Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xdc7fc3…
10-12 23:15:11	Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xf3a626…
10-12 23:14:30	Will Manuel Bompard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x7b43a2…
10-12 23:14:09	Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	210	95¢	$200	0xbc7971…
10-12 23:13:54	Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x6eacbc…
10-12 23:13:47	Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	105	96¢	$100	0x976fa4…
10-12 23:13:32	Will Juan Branco advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	105	96¢	$100	0x37e7ec…
10-12 23:02:24	Will Raphaël Glucksmann advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	111	6¢	$7	0x6cb73d…
10-12 23:00:33	Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xbfd396…
10-12 22:41:45	Will Dominique de Villepin win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	23	96¢	$22	0xa9cf7f…
10-12 22:20:20	Will Christine Lagarde win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xfd3867…
10-12 22:15:59	Will Christine Lagarde win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	77	98¢	$75	0x7e4eed…
10-10 21:28:19	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy before 2027?-kuQe	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x65a5c6…
10-10 21:22:19	Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	106	95¢	$100	0x65ef40…
10-10 21:21:15	Will Bruno Retailleau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x108c8c…
10-10 21:17:40	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x3a2134…
10-10 20:57:03	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	109	91¢	$100	0xfa1d31…
10-10 20:47:07	Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x54ab11…
10-10 20:46:21	Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	309	97¢	$300	0xef7764…
10-10 20:31:19	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	1,099	91¢	$1,000	0x0b95ff…
10-10 20:29:42	French election called by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,059	94¢	$1,000	0x915929…
10-10 20:28:09	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xb23d85…
10-10 20:28:00	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x45bce1…
10-04 09:18:52	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	113	88¢	$100	0x1ddc6d…
10-04 09:10:34	Will Valérie Pécresse announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x127590…
10-04 09:10:20	Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	327	92¢	$300	0x5f2a6b…
07-23 16:30:24	Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x1bfc5f…
07-23 16:30:00	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xa58ad4…
07-23 16:29:51	Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x57c251…
07-23 16:25:27	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x9f04a3…
07-23 16:25:24	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x504f5f…
07-23 16:25:07	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x50cb55…
07-23 16:09:55	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0xa79285…
07-23 16:09:39	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	444	90¢	$400	0x33467d…
06-17 22:33:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	242	83¢	$200	0xba087e…
06-17 22:30:49	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	232	86¢	$200	0x687fc6…
06-17 22:30:43	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	216	92¢	$200	0x554101…
06-17 22:29:23	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	SELL	121	34¢	$41	0x49d966…
06-16 14:17:01	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	323	93¢	$300	0x16c69f…
06-16 14:13:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	361	83¢	$300	0xa84ecc…
06-16 14:04:17	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	121	83¢	$100	0x439cf5…
06-16 14:02:49	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	38	23¢	$9	0x46d6fb…
06-16 13:56:44	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	70	32¢	$23	0xd6b166…
06-15 23:00:15	Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x75fd89…
06-15 22:54:45	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x127d5b…
06-15 22:54:34	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	232	86¢	$200	0xa3a097…
06-15 22:51:39	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	312	96¢	$300	0xf4ec6b…
06-13 11:32:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	550	91¢	$500	0x4f046a…
06-13 11:32:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	247	81¢	$200	0xc89572…
06-13 11:27:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x2fa253…
06-13 11:24:55	will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x587709…
06-13 11:23:52	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x926e3c…
06-02 10:42:41	Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?	No	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0xfad61d…
06-02 10:37:42	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x7776ad…
06-02 10:26:47	Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	307	98¢	$300	0xb2b7d4…
06-02 09:10:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	527	95¢	$500	0x8c12b7…
05-31 22:23:30	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	349	93¢	$325	0xdb59a1…
05-31 22:10:29	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	9,698	7¢	$634	0xcc1eb1…
05-31 22:04:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,448	7¢	$700	0x061204…
05-31 22:04:25	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	749	93¢	$700	0x03ca31…
05-31 21:43:32	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0x5c0cf9…
05-31 21:43:27	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	9¢	$6	0x1c5585…
05-26 22:02:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	10¢	$7	0x849941…
05-20 21:25:44	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x9e35d2…
05-17 11:12:36	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd0c4e3…
05-16 23:00:17	Will Australia come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xad2cfd…
05-16 22:58:44	Will Australia come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9f2844…
05-16 22:56:50	Will Finland come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xc689db…
05-16 22:55:59	Will Finland come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x4905ed…
05-16 22:55:40	Will Finland come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x774783…
05-16 22:54:39	Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	22	44¢	$10	0xaedecf…
05-16 22:53:04	Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xd2265d…
05-16 22:52:36	Will Norway come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x0e4429…
05-16 22:52:03	Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x0611e7…
05-16 22:49:10	Will Cyprus come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x87ae0f…
05-16 22:47:39	Will Norway come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xddbbf4…
05-16 22:44:51	Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	8	58¢	$5	0xf11bb1…
05-16 22:33:49	Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	32	53¢	$17	0x6a70fb…
05-16 22:01:06	Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x389f60…
05-16 21:45:52	Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	42	53¢	$22	0x733ab7…
05-16 21:41:37	Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x012a0c…
03-18 17:00:45	highest temperature in paris on march 18 2026 17c	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0xada984…
03-17 12:59:21	highest temperature in paris on march 17 2026 15c	No	BUY	95	100¢	$95	0x167e17…
03-15 17:27:39	highest temperature in paris on march 15 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xd62f0f…
03-15 17:25:07	highest temperature in paris on march 15 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xe4854a…
03-15 17:24:07	highest temperature in paris on march 15 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x4403d9…
03-15 17:22:55	highest temperature in paris on march 15 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x361035…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	3	$2.0K	11,197	9,698	+1,499	open	—	05-31 22:10
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.0K	527	527	+0	open	—	10-13 14:04
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	1	$1.0K	1,099	0	+1,099	open	—	10-10 20:31
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	4	$1000	1,094	0	+1,094	No	+$94	07-23 16:09
French election called by December 31, 2026?	1	$1000	1,059	0	+1,059	open	—	10-10 20:29
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$700	851	0	+851	open	—	06-17 22:33
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	4	$700	833	0	+833	open	—	07-23 16:09
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$500	550	0	+550	open	—	06-13 11:32
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	1	$325	349	0	+349	open	—	05-31 22:23
Macron out by December 31, 2026?	1	$300	309	0	+309	open	—	10-10 20:46
Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	1	$300	327	0	+327	open	—	10-04 09:10
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$300	312	0	+312	open	—	06-15 22:51
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$300	307	0	+307	open	—	06-02 10:26
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	5	$272	229	229	+0	No	-$128	06-17 22:29
Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	1	$242	269	0	+269	open	—	10-13 14:11
Will Marine Le Pen win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	1	$221	269	0	+269	open	—	10-13 14:10
Will Bruno Retailleau advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	1	$200	213	0	+213	open	—	10-10 21:21
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$200	211	0	+211	open	—	07-23 16:25
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	2	$200	220	0	+220	open	—	10-10 20:57
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$200	228	0	+228	open	—	10-10 21:17
Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	1	$200	213	0	+213	open	—	07-23 16:29
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	2	$200	233	0	+233	open	—	10-10 20:28
Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	1	$200	210	0	+210	open	—	10-12 23:14
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy before 2027?-kuQe	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	10-10 21:28
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?	1	$200	203	0	+203	No	+$3	06-02 10:42
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	5	$153	200	92	+109	open	—	06-02 10:37
Will Christine Lagarde win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	3	$151	77	77	+0	open	—	10-21 11:09
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$150	173	0	+173	open	—	10-19 16:27
Will Édouard Philippe advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	1	$121	209	0	+209	open	—	10-21 11:00
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	1	$100	111	0	+111	open	—	10-12 23:00