Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$87,196
$79 in 24h
Trades
1,816
Unique wallets
331
Liquidity
$39,593
Latest YES mid
3¢
Latest NO mid
97¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-11 17:05
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+90.4¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $665
vs crowd: 10% YES on $57.1K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 19 | $58 | $8.7K | $8.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 24 | $2.2K | $16.9K | $14.8K |
| 🐟 Fish | 144 | $2.7K | $21.6K | $18.9K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 144 | $566 | $4.4K | $3.8K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $665 | — | +$665 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 12 | $1.5K | $1.9K | $391 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 9 | $31 | $1.1K | $1.0K |
| Median | 42 | $4 | $2.8K | $2.8K |
| Below median | 142 | $47 | $6.6K | $6.6K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $14 | $706 | $692 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $5 | $5 | $0 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $13 | $3.0K | $3.0K |
| unranked | 110 | $3.2K | $35.5K | $32.3K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x6937…1416 | Yes | +15,700 | $523 | $523 | 7 | 07-01 15:15 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +13,013 | $363 | $2,710 | 312 | 07-11 06:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xe120…283e | No | +9,067 | $8,718 | $8,718 | 20 | 07-06 13:10 |
| Plush-Robotics 0xe7ef…b402 | No | +6,476 | $6,218 | $6,218 | 2 | 07-01 08:05 |
| Distorted-Dude 0xe36f…cd91 | No | +3,409 | $3,259 | $3,259 | 1 | 06-04 07:30 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +2,979 | $76 | $1,163 | 397 | 07-11 14:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x4035…91aa | No | +2,363 | $2,260 | $2,260 | 1 | 06-07 00:27 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | +1,466 | $1,393 | $1,393 | 6 | 06-10 20:54 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +1,200 | $1,151 | $1,151 | 1 | 06-13 08:32 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +788 | $22 | $68 | 14 | 07-01 21:47 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | +750 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 07-01 21:47 |
| Exhausted-Top 0x30f8…b824 | No | +524 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 06-06 03:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x27b3…01bb | No | +500 | $478 | $478 | 3 | 06-04 17:39 |
| Prickly-Offense 0xe947…ab96 | No | +500 | $475 | $475 | 9 | 06-08 05:26 |
| Incomplete-Cherry 0x107f…bb8c | No | +400 | $383 | $383 | 1 | 06-13 06:51 |
| Trivial-Idea 0x555c…ee28 | No | +400 | $383 | $383 | 1 | 07-01 14:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xdc90…d6d0 | No | +380 | $367 | $367 | 1 | 07-06 13:10 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +360 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-01 21:47 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +315 | $9 | $9 | 8 | 07-11 11:25 |
| Jittery-Vineyard 0x5c5c…e316 | Yes | +300 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 06-05 19:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x2810…608c | No | +259 | $250 | $250 | 1 | 07-03 09:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x8753…8262 | No | +236 | $228 | $228 | 1 | 07-02 06:24 |
| Internal-Hospitality 0x535f…9667 | Yes | +205 | $9 | $36 | 5 | 06-12 21:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x659c…d142 | Yes | +200 | $9 | $26 | 4 | 06-12 21:39 |
| Fixed-Evolution 0x66ca…0db6 | No | +200 | $192 | $192 | 1 | 07-09 13:08 |
| Gleaming-Puddle 0x94b0…b337 | No | +189 | $181 | $181 | 1 | 06-05 07:13 |
| Sorrowful-Surround 0x019e…af1d | No | +176 | $168 | $168 | 1 | 06-05 17:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xada7…1168 | No | +170 | $165 | $165 | 5 | 07-06 08:52 |
| Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | +153 | $463 | $4,437 | 69 | 07-11 06:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xc4a3…81fa | Yes | +125 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 06-27 01:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x0881…76c2 | No | +113 | $109 | $109 | 3 | 06-18 22:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xdb7c…843b | No | +110 | $106 | $106 | 1 | 07-04 15:08 |
| Smart-Average 0x161a…b515 | No | +105 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-10 14:26 |
| Wordy-Volume 0x5ee1…118a | No | +104 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 07-08 11:16 |
| Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | +100 | $6 | $37 | 11 | 07-01 17:43 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +100 | $6 | $47 | 13 | 07-01 17:43 |
| Kind-Senator 0x4b91…982d | Yes | +100 | $4 | $13 | 3 | 06-13 01:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x952e…9ee1 | No | +100 | $97 | $97 | 1 | 06-25 14:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x23d7…17fc | No | +100 | $97 | $97 | 1 | 06-30 09:21 |
| Gleaming-Politician 0x72ff…05c8 | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 1 | 07-08 07:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x0238…1288 | No | +100 | $95 | $95 | 1 | 06-10 14:00 |
| Multicolored-Billing 0x69af…0a19 | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 1 | 06-05 18:29 |
| Nonstop-Erosion 0xf1a2…f1b6 | No | +100 | $97 | $485 | 5 | 07-02 01:03 |
| Monthly-Foxglove 0xad11…24a5 | No | +96 | $92 | $92 | 1 | 06-30 09:21 |
| Rewarding-Subset 0x7399…46d6 | No | +92 | $89 | $880 | 14 | 07-01 21:49 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | +80 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-13 23:16 |
| Shameless-Workout-Orchard 0x4d86…1cb2 | Yes | +73 | $-19 | $47 | 8 | 07-02 01:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x1617…d790 | Yes | +62 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-01 21:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xba01…0c14 | Yes | +61 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-05 21:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x1823…8e49 | Yes | +59 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 14:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xa19c…de6b | Yes | +53 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-10 05:47 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 17:05:53 | Complicated-Macaw 0x5361…061a | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x9e2d7f… |
| 07-11 17:05:53 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0x9e2d7f… |
| 07-11 17:05:53 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x9e2d7f… |
| 07-11 14:33:47 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 2 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4cb4e4… |
| 07-11 14:33:47 | (anonymous) 0xaa35…82a1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4cb4e4… |
| 07-11 14:33:47 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x4cb4e4… |
| 07-11 11:25:22 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 19 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x33b9ff… |
| 07-11 11:25:22 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x33b9ff… |
| 07-11 11:25:22 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x33b9ff… |
| 07-11 06:02:28 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 900 | 3¢ | $23 | 0xcb0865… |
| 07-11 06:02:28 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 148 | 2¢ | $4 | 0xcb0865… |
| 07-11 06:02:28 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 704 | 3¢ | $18 | 0xcb0865… |
| 07-11 05:57:10 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 103 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x8c14e5… |
| 07-11 05:57:10 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 704 | 3¢ | $19 | 0x8c14e5… |
| 07-11 05:57:10 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 950 | 3¢ | $26 | 0x8c14e5… |
| 07-10 20:59:35 | Strict-Sprinkles 0x61e1…a718 | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0xd9c44c… |
| 07-10 20:59:35 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xd9c44c… |
| 07-10 14:55:23 | Strict-Sprinkles 0x61e1…a718 | No | BUY | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x524fec… |
| 07-10 14:55:23 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x524fec… |
| 07-10 07:12:26 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 150 | 3¢ | $4 | 0x493078… |
| 07-10 07:12:26 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 3¢ | $4 | 0x493078… |
| 07-10 07:10:44 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xa7d2bd… |
| 07-10 07:10:44 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xa7d2bd… |
| 07-10 05:55:20 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 562 | 3¢ | $15 | 0xcdc105… |
| 07-10 05:55:20 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 3¢ | $4 | 0xcdc105… |
| 07-10 05:55:20 | (anonymous) 0x3f34…feed | No | SELL | 54 | 97¢ | $53 | 0xcdc105… |
| 07-10 05:55:20 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | SELL | 100 | 97¢ | $97 | 0xcdc105… |
| 07-10 05:55:20 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xcdc105… |
| 07-10 05:55:20 | (anonymous) 0x3365…972a | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0xcdc105… |
| 07-10 05:55:20 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 40 | 97¢ | $39 | 0xcdc105… |
| 07-10 05:47:10 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 53 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x86cf31… |
| 07-10 05:47:10 | (anonymous) 0xa19c…de6b | Yes | BUY | 53 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x86cf31… |
| 07-10 05:25:19 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 3¢ | $4 | 0xc0ecd9… |
| 07-10 05:25:19 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $20 | 0xc0ecd9… |
| 07-10 05:25:19 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 704 | 3¢ | $20 | 0xc0ecd9… |
| 07-10 05:25:19 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 874 | 3¢ | $25 | 0xc0ecd9… |
| 07-10 05:21:31 | Staid-Spot 0x7a5b…27b5 | No | SELL | 37 | 97¢ | $36 | 0xbfc14c… |
| 07-10 05:21:31 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 37 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xbfc14c… |
| 07-10 05:17:01 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 704 | 3¢ | $21 | 0xf93c42… |
| 07-10 05:17:01 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 3¢ | $5 | 0xf93c42… |
| 07-10 05:17:01 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 854 | 3¢ | $26 | 0xf93c42… |
| 07-10 05:14:14 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 605 | 3¢ | $19 | 0x9df88e… |
| 07-10 05:14:14 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 605 | 3¢ | $19 | 0x9df88e… |
| 07-10 01:16:17 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 37 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xb51bc9… |
| 07-10 01:16:17 | Staid-Spot 0x7a5b…27b5 | No | BUY | 37 | 97¢ | $36 | 0xb51bc9… |
| 07-10 01:01:59 | Wooden-Creation 0x9b9f…b630 | No | SELL | 62 | 97¢ | $60 | 0x4d545f… |
| 07-10 01:01:59 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 62 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x4d545f… |
| 07-09 20:01:04 | Wooden-Creation 0x9b9f…b630 | No | BUY | 62 | 97¢ | $60 | 0x475ad8… |
| 07-09 20:01:04 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 62 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x475ad8… |
| 07-09 18:59:02 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 854 | 3¢ | $27 | 0x52193d… |
| 07-09 18:59:02 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x52193d… |
| 07-09 18:59:02 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 704 | 3¢ | $23 | 0x52193d… |
| 07-09 18:54:55 | (anonymous) 0x909b…bca9 | No | SELL | 51 | 97¢ | $49 | 0x9bfbea… |
| 07-09 18:54:55 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 1,731 | 3¢ | $55 | 0x9bfbea… |
| 07-09 18:54:55 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x9bfbea… |
| 07-09 18:54:55 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | SELL | 268 | 97¢ | $260 | 0x9bfbea… |
| 07-09 18:54:55 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | SELL | 44 | 97¢ | $43 | 0x9bfbea… |
| 07-09 18:54:55 | (anonymous) 0xd37c…17f6 | No | SELL | 12 | 97¢ | $11 | 0x9bfbea… |
| 07-09 18:54:55 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | SELL | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x9bfbea… |
| 07-09 18:54:55 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 704 | 3¢ | $23 | 0x9bfbea… |
| 07-09 18:54:55 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x9bfbea… |
| 07-09 15:55:13 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 700 | 3¢ | $24 | 0xf9edf9… |
| 07-09 15:55:13 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 850 | 3¢ | $29 | 0xf9edf9… |
| 07-09 15:55:13 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 3¢ | $5 | 0xf9edf9… |
| 07-09 15:53:04 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x2950ce… |
| 07-09 15:53:04 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 704 | 4¢ | $25 | 0x2950ce… |
| 07-09 15:53:04 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 709 | 4¢ | $25 | 0x2950ce… |
| 07-09 15:50:34 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 146 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x538994… |
| 07-09 15:50:34 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 1,000 | 4¢ | $36 | 0x538994… |
| 07-09 15:50:34 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 704 | 4¢ | $25 | 0x538994… |
| 07-09 15:28:56 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 704 | 4¢ | $26 | 0xb1bc21… |
| 07-09 15:28:56 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 75 | 96¢ | $72 | 0xb1bc21… |
| 07-09 15:28:56 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 1,171 | 4¢ | $44 | 0xb1bc21… |
| 07-09 15:28:56 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 4¢ | $6 | 0xb1bc21… |
| 07-09 15:28:56 | Gummy-Sale 0xee29…89d8 | No | SELL | 100 | 96¢ | $96 | 0xb1bc21… |
| 07-09 13:08:50 | Fixed-Evolution 0x66ca…0db6 | No | BUY | 200 | 96¢ | $192 | 0x45a462… |
| 07-09 13:08:50 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 28 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x45a462… |
| 07-09 13:08:50 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 172 | 4¢ | $7 | 0x45a462… |
| 07-09 02:29:07 | Sharp-Guest 0xaf44…e0ac | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xa5163f… |
| 07-09 02:29:07 | (anonymous) 0x6043…0c7b | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0xa5163f… |
| 07-08 23:21:07 | (anonymous) 0x0cdc…9056 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x5ef175… |
| 07-08 23:21:07 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 26 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x5ef175… |
| 07-08 19:28:02 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x064aa5… |
| 07-08 19:28:02 | Sharp-Guest 0xaf44…e0ac | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x064aa5… |
| 07-08 11:26:40 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0xa5f1be… |
| 07-08 11:26:40 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0xa5f1be… |
| 07-08 11:16:28 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 104 | 4¢ | $4 | 0xdc19f8… |
| 07-08 11:16:28 | Wordy-Volume 0x5ee1…118a | No | BUY | 104 | 96¢ | $100 | 0xdc19f8… |
| 07-08 07:50:55 | Gleaming-Politician 0x72ff…05c8 | No | BUY | 100 | 96¢ | $96 | 0xb7c688… |
| 07-08 07:50:55 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0xb7c688… |
| 07-07 20:04:47 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 41 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x68e7e7… |
| 07-07 20:04:47 | Submissive-Conservative 0xe581…d15f | No | SELL | 41 | 96¢ | $39 | 0x68e7e7… |
| 07-07 18:35:20 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x473812… |
| 07-07 18:35:20 | Advanced-Airmail 0x94d7…868b | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x473812… |
| 07-07 18:28:08 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | SELL | 41 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xdc75be… |
| 07-07 18:28:08 | Easy-Stonework 0xee2b…96d1 | No | SELL | 62 | 96¢ | $59 | 0xdc75be… |
| 07-07 18:28:08 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 96¢ | $20 | 0xdc75be… |
| 07-07 15:50:17 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 14 | 96¢ | $13 | 0x58cfea… |
| 07-07 15:50:17 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 12 | 96¢ | $11 | 0x58cfea… |
| 07-07 15:50:17 | (anonymous) 0x0cdc…9056 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x58cfea… |