Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$45,356
$79 in 24h
Trades
975
Unique wallets
230
Liquidity
$39,593
Latest YES mid
3¢
Latest NO mid
97¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-21 06:23
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+93.0¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $274
vs crowd: 7% YES on $27.7K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 16 | $23 | $6.5K | $6.4K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 18 | $730 | $5.6K | $4.9K |
| 🐟 Fish | 107 | $119 | $11.7K | $11.6K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 89 | $1.1K | $1.9K | $810 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $274 | — | +$274 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 7 | $475 | $155 | +$320 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 8 | $18 | $888 | $870 |
| Median | 27 | — | $1.7K | $1.7K |
| Below median | 102 | $16 | $4.8K | $4.8K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $13 | $512 | $499 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | $5 | $5 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $3 | $2.5K | $2.5K |
| unranked | 71 | $1.1K | $15.1K | $14.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | +10,359 | $573 | $1,537 | 25 | 06-21 06:21 |
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +6,918 | $252 | $692 | 138 | 06-21 06:23 |
| Distorted-Dude 0xe36f…cd91 | No | +3,409 | $3,259 | $3,259 | 1 | 06-04 07:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xe120…283e | No | +3,067 | $2,928 | $2,928 | 17 | 06-11 10:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x4035…91aa | No | +2,363 | $2,260 | $2,260 | 1 | 06-07 00:27 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +1,996 | $69 | $439 | 178 | 06-21 06:23 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | +1,466 | $1,393 | $1,393 | 6 | 06-10 20:54 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +1,200 | $1,151 | $1,151 | 1 | 06-13 08:32 |
| Exhausted-Top 0x30f8…b824 | No | +524 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 06-06 03:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x27b3…01bb | No | +500 | $478 | $478 | 3 | 06-04 17:39 |
| Prickly-Offense 0xe947…ab96 | No | +500 | $475 | $475 | 9 | 06-08 05:26 |
| Incomplete-Cherry 0x107f…bb8c | No | +400 | $383 | $383 | 1 | 06-13 06:51 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +385 | $13 | $27 | 4 | 06-13 23:16 |
| Jittery-Vineyard 0x5c5c…e316 | Yes | +300 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 06-05 19:52 |
| Internal-Hospitality 0x535f…9667 | Yes | +205 | $9 | $36 | 5 | 06-12 21:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x659c…d142 | Yes | +200 | $9 | $26 | 4 | 06-12 21:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x2796…b4f0 | No | +194 | $176 | $1,145 | 8 | 06-14 01:39 |
| Gleaming-Puddle 0x94b0…b337 | No | +189 | $181 | $181 | 1 | 06-05 07:13 |
| Sorrowful-Surround 0x019e…af1d | No | +176 | $168 | $168 | 1 | 06-05 17:47 |
| Informal-Dancer 0xb22f…0399 | No | +150 | $145 | $145 | 1 | 06-15 16:29 |
| (anonymous) 0x0881…76c2 | No | +113 | $109 | $109 | 3 | 06-18 22:00 |
| Smart-Average 0x161a…b515 | No | +105 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-10 14:26 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +100 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-14 21:28 |
| Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | +100 | $4 | $13 | 3 | 06-13 01:12 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +100 | $4 | $22 | 5 | 06-13 01:12 |
| Kind-Senator 0x4b91…982d | Yes | +100 | $4 | $13 | 3 | 06-13 01:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x0238…1288 | No | +100 | $95 | $95 | 1 | 06-10 14:00 |
| Multicolored-Billing 0x69af…0a19 | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 1 | 06-05 18:29 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | +80 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-13 23:16 |
| Mature-Flatboat 0x6db1…6a2f | No | +69 | $66 | $66 | 1 | 06-12 18:05 |
| Few-Pollution 0xcdbf…ffc0 | No | +62 | $60 | $60 | 1 | 06-02 04:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xba01…0c14 | Yes | +61 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-05 21:55 |
| Curvy-Nightmare 0x9e7d…a8aa | No | +56 | $54 | $54 | 1 | 06-02 18:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xa1af…42ba | No | +56 | $54 | $54 | 2 | 06-19 00:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xcbca…37bc | No | +53 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 06-05 07:16 |
| Nervous-Sweatshirt 0x4ab8…3447 | No | +51 | $49 | $49 | 1 | 06-21 02:25 |
| Probable-Tatami 0xfe7a…8399 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 05-30 03:27 |
| Every-Bladder 0x5762…e8b9 | No | +43 | $41 | $41 | 1 | 06-12 12:03 |
| Taut-Pate 0x1f06…33b3 | No | +42 | $40 | $40 | 2 | 06-11 12:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xa92a…ba2d | No | +40 | $38 | $38 | 1 | 05-30 03:54 |
| Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | +39 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-13 08:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x9116…740b | No | +31 | $30 | $30 | 4 | 06-19 17:49 |
| Naughty-Stab 0xc5ed…9374 | Yes | +23 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-04 09:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xac00…b58d | No | +21 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 06-17 02:06 |
| Motionless-Anything 0xb1e0…d60c | No | +15 | $14 | $14 | 3 | 06-02 09:15 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 06:23:49 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 150 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x23c587… |
| 06-21 06:23:49 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x23c587… |
| 06-21 06:22:50 | Virtual-Roommate 0x84a1…2842 | Yes | SELL | 99 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x19a493… |
| 06-21 06:22:50 | (anonymous) 0x41d6…01f9 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 3¢ | $6 | 0x19a493… |
| 06-21 06:22:50 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 320 | 3¢ | $10 | 0x19a493… |
| 06-21 06:22:50 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x19a493… |
| 06-21 06:22:40 | Virtual-Roommate 0x84a1…2842 | Yes | SELL | 101 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xa793e0… |
| 06-21 06:22:40 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $48 | 0xa793e0… |
| 06-21 06:22:40 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 3¢ | $5 | 0xa793e0… |
| 06-21 06:22:34 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 150 | 97¢ | $146 | 0xde7829… |
| 06-21 06:22:34 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 3¢ | $5 | 0xde7829… |
| 06-21 06:21:19 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 150 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x1b07c8… |
| 06-21 06:21:19 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 57 | 97¢ | $55 | 0x1b07c8… |
| 06-21 06:21:19 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 629 | 3¢ | $21 | 0x1b07c8… |
| 06-21 06:21:19 | (anonymous) 0x4030…2576 | No | SELL | 25 | 97¢ | $24 | 0x1b07c8… |
| 06-21 06:21:19 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 75 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xae8d30… |
| 06-21 06:21:19 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | SELL | 41 | 97¢ | $40 | 0x1b07c8… |
| 06-21 06:21:19 | (anonymous) 0x1487…95f2 | No | SELL | 22 | 97¢ | $21 | 0x1b07c8… |
| 06-21 06:21:19 | Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | SELL | 1,600 | 3¢ | $54 | 0x1b07c8… |
| 06-21 06:21:19 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | SELL | 42 | 97¢ | $40 | 0x1b07c8… |
| 06-21 06:21:19 | (anonymous) 0x1e2a…3681 | No | SELL | 22 | 97¢ | $21 | 0x1b07c8… |
| 06-21 06:21:19 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 75 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xae8d30… |
| 06-21 02:25:55 | Defenseless-Badger 0xf2a7…197a | No | SELL | 57 | 97¢ | $55 | 0xfb0cdc… |
| 06-21 02:25:55 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xfb0cdc… |
| 06-21 02:25:55 | Nervous-Sweatshirt 0x4ab8…3447 | No | BUY | 51 | 96¢ | $49 | 0xfb0cdc… |
| 06-21 01:25:43 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 55 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x2eb072… |
| 06-21 01:25:43 | Flat-Hydrocarb 0xcdc5…95a8 | No | SELL | 55 | 97¢ | $53 | 0x2eb072… |
| 06-20 22:23:19 | Defenseless-Badger 0xf2a7…197a | No | BUY | 57 | 97¢ | $55 | 0xfd7bfe… |
| 06-20 22:23:19 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0xfd7bfe… |
| 06-20 22:13:25 | Finished-Whistle 0xcc92…faf0 | No | SELL | 59 | 97¢ | $57 | 0x115eb3… |
| 06-20 22:13:25 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 59 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x115eb3… |
| 06-20 21:47:17 | (anonymous) 0x8933…b1c4 | No | SELL | 23 | 96¢ | $22 | 0x37bdde… |
| 06-20 21:47:17 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 23 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x37bdde… |
| 06-20 20:37:29 | Jovial-Healthcare 0xc394…2686 | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x665b40… |
| 06-20 20:37:29 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x665b40… |
| 06-20 20:21:52 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 24 | 97¢ | $23 | 0x4f63ee… |
| 06-20 20:21:52 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 31 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x4f63ee… |
| 06-20 20:21:52 | Flat-Hydrocarb 0xcdc5…95a8 | No | BUY | 55 | 97¢ | $53 | 0x4f63ee… |
| 06-20 16:08:31 | Finished-Whistle 0xcc92…faf0 | No | BUY | 59 | 97¢ | $57 | 0xc04ad1… |
| 06-20 16:08:31 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 59 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xc04ad1… |
| 06-20 15:45:41 | (anonymous) 0x8933…b1c4 | No | BUY | 23 | 97¢ | $22 | 0xb4b38c… |
| 06-20 15:45:41 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 23 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xb4b38c… |
| 06-20 14:34:26 | Jovial-Healthcare 0xc394…2686 | No | BUY | 6 | 97¢ | $6 | 0x28123f… |
| 06-20 14:34:26 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x28123f… |
| 06-20 10:44:29 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 57 | 97¢ | $55 | 0x17f4e3… |
| 06-20 10:44:29 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x17f4e3… |
| 06-20 10:44:29 | Fortunate-Exhaustion 0x7e3a…5696 | No | SELL | 59 | 96¢ | $56 | 0x17f4e3… |
| 06-20 06:18:37 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x9170c5… |
| 06-20 06:18:37 | Red-Tale 0x2def…9642 | No | SELL | 54 | 96¢ | $52 | 0x9170c5… |
| 06-20 03:42:25 | Fortunate-Exhaustion 0x7e3a…5696 | No | BUY | 59 | 97¢ | $57 | 0x05132e… |
| 06-20 03:42:25 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 59 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x05132e… |
| 06-20 02:16:50 | Red-Tale 0x2def…9642 | No | BUY | 54 | 97¢ | $52 | 0x5e9d54… |
| 06-20 02:16:50 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 54 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x5e9d54… |
| 06-20 00:25:44 | Whirlwind-Code 0xa697…e2ed | No | SELL | 59 | 96¢ | $57 | 0x556db8… |
| 06-20 00:25:44 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 59 | 96¢ | $57 | 0x556db8… |
| 06-19 18:25:25 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 59 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x74caa4… |
| 06-19 18:25:25 | Whirlwind-Code 0xa697…e2ed | No | BUY | 59 | 97¢ | $57 | 0x74caa4… |
| 06-19 17:49:26 | Unequaled-Jeep 0x2755…25ae | No | SELL | 73 | 96¢ | $70 | 0xd7a0ef… |
| 06-19 17:49:26 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0xd7a0ef… |
| 06-19 17:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 30 | 97¢ | $29 | 0xd7a0ef… |
| 06-19 17:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0xd7a0ef… |
| 06-19 17:49:26 | (anonymous) 0x9116…740b | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xd7a0ef… |
| 06-19 10:48:58 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 73 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xf98d3a… |
| 06-19 10:48:58 | Unequaled-Jeep 0x2755…25ae | No | BUY | 73 | 97¢ | $70 | 0xf98d3a… |
| 06-19 00:05:16 | (anonymous) 0x9116…740b | No | BUY | 9 | 96¢ | $8 | 0xc426bb… |
| 06-19 00:05:16 | (anonymous) 0xa1af…42ba | No | BUY | 44 | 96¢ | $43 | 0xc426bb… |
| 06-19 00:05:16 | Lavish-Mate 0x7715…a90b | No | SELL | 53 | 96¢ | $51 | 0xc426bb… |
| 06-18 23:31:32 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 289 | 3¢ | $10 | 0xe8424b… |
| 06-18 23:31:32 | Similar-Format 0x30e4…5102 | Yes | SELL | 289 | 3¢ | $10 | 0xe8424b… |
| 06-18 22:00:19 | (anonymous) 0xa1af…42ba | No | BUY | 12 | 96¢ | $11 | 0x17187d… |
| 06-18 22:00:19 | Poor-Ostrich 0x2932…c8ed | No | SELL | 58 | 96¢ | $56 | 0x17187d… |
| 06-18 22:00:19 | (anonymous) 0x0881…76c2 | No | BUY | 47 | 96¢ | $45 | 0x17187d… |
| 06-18 19:04:28 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 52 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x88b476… |
| 06-18 19:04:28 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x88b476… |
| 06-18 19:04:28 | Lavish-Mate 0x7715…a90b | No | BUY | 53 | 97¢ | $51 | 0x88b476… |
| 06-18 18:15:53 | Sore-Unemployment 0xe44d…369a | No | SELL | 43 | 96¢ | $42 | 0x1497fd… |
| 06-18 18:15:53 | (anonymous) 0x0881…76c2 | No | BUY | 43 | 96¢ | $42 | 0x1497fd… |
| 06-18 17:23:20 | Improbable-Egghead 0xd7dd…c7f8 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x7003b1… |
| 06-18 17:23:20 | (anonymous) 0x0881…76c2 | No | BUY | 23 | 96¢ | $23 | 0x7003b1… |
| 06-18 17:23:20 | Unequaled-Jeep 0x2755…25ae | No | SELL | 67 | 96¢ | $64 | 0x7003b1… |
| 06-18 17:23:20 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x7003b1… |
| 06-18 17:23:20 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x7003b1… |
| 06-18 16:37:28 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 40 | 96¢ | $39 | 0x686c25… |
| 06-18 16:37:28 | Colorless-Cause 0x46b9…ecf8 | No | SELL | 40 | 96¢ | $39 | 0x686c25… |
| 06-18 13:20:35 | Unequaled-Jeep 0x2755…25ae | No | BUY | 67 | 97¢ | $64 | 0xb4ce59… |
| 06-18 13:20:35 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 67 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xb4ce59… |
| 06-18 11:24:41 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 48 | 96¢ | $47 | 0x531381… |
| 06-18 11:24:41 | Bright-Set 0xdb01…c4ff | No | SELL | 48 | 96¢ | $47 | 0x531381… |
| 06-18 11:14:50 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 43 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x4e885b… |
| 06-18 11:14:50 | Sore-Unemployment 0xe44d…369a | No | BUY | 43 | 97¢ | $42 | 0x4e885b… |
| 06-18 09:37:04 | Colorless-Cause 0x46b9…ecf8 | No | BUY | 40 | 97¢ | $39 | 0x2973f1… |
| 06-18 09:37:04 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x2973f1… |
| 06-18 09:26:50 | Blushing-Perennial 0xa7f4…b319 | No | SELL | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x2de03d… |
| 06-18 09:26:50 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x2de03d… |
| 06-18 08:55:32 | Yummy-Gateway 0x80f2…b0be | No | SELL | 60 | 97¢ | $58 | 0x40de49… |
| 06-18 08:55:32 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | BUY | 60 | 97¢ | $58 | 0x40de49… |
| 06-18 07:47:50 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 9 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x621fd8… |
| 06-18 07:47:50 | Poor-Ostrich 0x2932…c8ed | No | BUY | 58 | 96¢ | $56 | 0x621fd8… |
| 06-18 07:47:50 | (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | SELL | 21 | 97¢ | $20 | 0x621fd8… |
| 06-18 07:47:50 | (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | SELL | 29 | 97¢ | $28 | 0x621fd8… |