Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$95,677
$79 in 24h
Trades
2,579
Unique wallets
438
Liquidity
$39,593
Latest YES mid
3¢
Latest NO mid
97¢
End date
2027-01-01
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-05 09:10
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+90.3¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $693
vs crowd: 10% YES on $61.2K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 22 | $60 | $9.9K | $9.8K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 28 | $2.3K | $17.4K | $15.1K |
| 🐟 Fish | 163 | $3.0K | $22.2K | $19.2K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 225 | $577 | $5.8K | $5.2K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $693 | — | +$693 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 14 | $1.6K | $2.1K | $488 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 9 | $31 | $1.1K | $1.0K |
| Median | 70 | $6 | $3.1K | $3.1K |
| Below median | 171 | $21 | $6.8K | $6.8K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 7 | $26 | $706 | $680 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $19 | $5 | +$14 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $13 | $4.1K | $4.1K |
| unranked | 156 | $3.5K | $37.3K | $33.8K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | +14,233 | $384 | $2,885 | 485 | 08-05 09:09 |
| Evil-Eaves 0x4574…0b7a | Yes | +14,096 | $756 | $4,730 | 70 | 07-24 14:57 |
| Plush-Robotics 0xe7ef…b402 | No | +6,476 | $6,218 | $6,218 | 2 | 07-01 08:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xe120…283e | No | +6,363 | $6,067 | $11,368 | 21 | 07-19 16:46 |
| Distorted-Dude 0xe36f…cd91 | No | +3,409 | $3,259 | $3,259 | 1 | 06-04 07:30 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +2,777 | $69 | $1,221 | 464 | 07-31 23:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x4035…91aa | No | +2,363 | $2,260 | $2,260 | 1 | 06-07 00:27 |
| Apprehensive-Breakdown 0xcc50…4c82 | No | +1,466 | $1,393 | $1,393 | 6 | 06-10 20:54 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | No | +1,200 | $1,151 | $1,151 | 1 | 06-13 08:32 |
| (anonymous) 0xf705…3ca7 | No | +1,134 | $1,106 | $1,106 | 1 | 07-16 00:40 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +888 | $24 | $70 | 15 | 07-19 16:46 |
| Sparse-Cookie 0x5a21…9318 | Yes | +750 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 07-01 21:47 |
| Exhausted-Top 0x30f8…b824 | No | +524 | $500 | $500 | 1 | 06-06 03:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x27b3…01bb | No | +500 | $478 | $478 | 3 | 06-04 17:39 |
| Prickly-Offense 0xe947…ab96 | No | +500 | $475 | $475 | 9 | 06-08 05:26 |
| Incomplete-Cherry 0x107f…bb8c | No | +400 | $383 | $383 | 1 | 06-13 06:51 |
| Trivial-Idea 0x555c…ee28 | No | +400 | $383 | $383 | 1 | 07-01 14:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xdc90…d6d0 | No | +380 | $367 | $367 | 1 | 07-06 13:10 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +360 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-01 21:47 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +315 | $9 | $9 | 8 | 07-11 11:25 |
| Jittery-Vineyard 0x5c5c…e316 | Yes | +300 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 06-05 19:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x2810…608c | No | +259 | $250 | $250 | 1 | 07-03 09:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x8753…8262 | No | +236 | $228 | $228 | 1 | 07-02 06:24 |
| (anonymous) 0xc4a3…81fa | Yes | +208 | $6 | $6 | 3 | 07-19 07:19 |
| Internal-Hospitality 0x535f…9667 | Yes | +205 | $9 | $36 | 5 | 06-12 21:39 |
| Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | No | +201 | $196 | $196 | 2 | 07-27 07:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x659c…d142 | Yes | +200 | $9 | $26 | 4 | 06-12 21:39 |
| Fixed-Evolution 0x66ca…0db6 | No | +200 | $192 | $192 | 1 | 07-09 13:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x1c35…e165 | Yes | +198 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-31 23:02 |
| Gleaming-Puddle 0x94b0…b337 | No | +189 | $181 | $181 | 1 | 06-05 07:13 |
| Sorrowful-Surround 0x019e…af1d | No | +176 | $168 | $168 | 1 | 06-05 17:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xada7…1168 | No | +170 | $165 | $165 | 5 | 07-06 08:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | +149 | $145 | $145 | 42 | 08-05 09:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x635e…6973 | No | +144 | $140 | $1,940 | 104 | 08-02 18:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x0881…76c2 | No | +113 | $109 | $109 | 3 | 06-18 22:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xdb7c…843b | No | +110 | $106 | $106 | 1 | 07-04 15:08 |
| Smart-Average 0x161a…b515 | No | +105 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-10 14:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x8b63…16a7 | No | +100 | $97 | $97 | 21 | 07-27 09:26 |
| Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | +100 | $6 | $37 | 11 | 07-01 17:43 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +100 | $6 | $47 | 13 | 07-01 17:43 |
| Kind-Senator 0x4b91…982d | Yes | +100 | $4 | $13 | 3 | 06-13 01:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xeadd…f35c | No | +100 | $98 | $98 | 1 | 07-24 14:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x568b…24c3 | No | +100 | $98 | $98 | 1 | 07-31 23:02 |
| (anonymous) 0x23d7…17fc | No | +100 | $97 | $97 | 1 | 06-30 09:21 |
| Gleaming-Politician 0x72ff…05c8 | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 1 | 07-08 07:50 |
| Flamboyant-Warming 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | +80 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-13 23:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb48…52d9 | Yes | +76 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-25 01:28 |
| Shameless-Workout-Orchard 0x4d86…1cb2 | Yes | +73 | $-19 | $47 | 8 | 07-02 01:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x1617…d790 | Yes | +62 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-01 21:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xba01…0c14 | Yes | +61 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-05 21:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x1823…8e49 | Yes | +59 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 14:57 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 09:10:02 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x7b1299… |
| 08-05 09:10:02 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x7b1299… |
| 08-05 09:09:14 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x3e75fb… |
| 08-05 09:09:14 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3e75fb… |
| 08-05 08:59:14 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x1e8d67… |
| 08-05 08:59:14 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x1e8d67… |
| 08-05 08:58:24 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xcedfc7… |
| 08-05 08:58:24 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xcedfc7… |
| 08-05 08:35:26 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x9c1993… |
| 08-05 08:35:26 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x9c1993… |
| 08-05 08:34:35 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x0e259b… |
| 08-05 08:34:35 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x0e259b… |
| 08-05 08:23:45 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x7da414… |
| 08-05 08:23:45 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x7da414… |
| 08-05 08:22:54 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x5521f6… |
| 08-05 08:22:54 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x5521f6… |
| 08-05 08:21:00 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xefca7c… |
| 08-05 08:21:00 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xefca7c… |
| 08-05 08:20:09 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x4ff47d… |
| 08-05 08:20:09 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4ff47d… |
| 08-05 07:08:26 | (anonymous) 0xf3ef…9c39 | No | SELL | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0x0c81c1… |
| 08-05 07:08:26 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0x0c81c1… |
| 08-04 23:05:14 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 4 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x194758… |
| 08-04 23:05:14 | (anonymous) 0xf3ef…9c39 | No | BUY | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0x194758… |
| 08-04 20:06:41 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x1dd997… |
| 08-04 20:06:41 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x1dd997… |
| 08-04 20:05:48 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x750d92… |
| 08-04 20:05:48 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x750d92… |
| 08-04 19:57:51 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0xa85488… |
| 08-04 19:57:51 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0xa85488… |
| 08-04 19:57:00 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 4 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x6c3d6b… |
| 08-04 19:57:00 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0x6c3d6b… |
| 08-04 19:47:54 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x8f2f39… |
| 08-04 19:47:54 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x8f2f39… |
| 08-04 19:46:59 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc0c6d7… |
| 08-04 19:46:59 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xc0c6d7… |
| 08-04 19:42:17 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xd0a45b… |
| 08-04 19:42:17 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xd0a45b… |
| 08-04 19:41:21 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4ba192… |
| 08-04 19:41:21 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x4ba192… |
| 08-04 19:33:29 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x449bb0… |
| 08-04 19:33:29 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x449bb0… |
| 08-04 19:32:35 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xae8696… |
| 08-04 19:32:35 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xae8696… |
| 08-04 18:58:08 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x101a46… |
| 08-04 18:58:08 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x101a46… |
| 08-04 18:57:15 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xfda6c0… |
| 08-04 18:57:15 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfda6c0… |
| 08-04 18:49:20 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x28eef2… |
| 08-04 18:49:20 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x28eef2… |
| 08-04 18:48:27 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x4b29f5… |
| 08-04 18:48:27 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4b29f5… |
| 08-04 18:46:38 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xacd6f4… |
| 08-04 18:46:38 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xacd6f4… |
| 08-04 18:45:44 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x9b9833… |
| 08-04 18:45:44 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x9b9833… |
| 08-04 18:34:39 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xbf06f4… |
| 08-04 18:34:39 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xbf06f4… |
| 08-04 18:33:48 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xc6aebe… |
| 08-04 18:33:48 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc6aebe… |
| 08-04 17:51:17 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x85ee70… |
| 08-04 17:51:17 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x85ee70… |
| 08-04 17:50:29 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x92a34e… |
| 08-04 17:50:29 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x92a34e… |
| 08-04 17:36:59 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x10b5a2… |
| 08-04 17:36:59 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x10b5a2… |
| 08-04 17:36:06 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xc7e19d… |
| 08-04 17:36:06 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc7e19d… |
| 08-04 17:02:41 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xea5ba9… |
| 08-04 17:02:41 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xea5ba9… |
| 08-04 17:01:47 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xdb6c9e… |
| 08-04 17:01:47 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xdb6c9e… |
| 08-04 16:45:50 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x0c1488… |
| 08-04 16:45:50 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x0c1488… |
| 08-04 16:44:56 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4f1512… |
| 08-04 16:44:56 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x4f1512… |
| 08-04 16:42:41 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xb2868b… |
| 08-04 16:42:41 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xb2868b… |
| 08-04 16:41:47 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x391dd0… |
| 08-04 16:41:47 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x391dd0… |
| 08-04 15:26:11 | Sugary-Passport 0x4fa2…c7b7 | Yes | SELL | 92 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x5742d1… |
| 08-04 15:26:11 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 92 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x5742d1… |
| 08-04 13:43:53 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 46 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1a5be9… |
| 08-04 13:43:53 | Sugary-Passport 0x4fa2…c7b7 | Yes | SELL | 46 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1a5be9… |
| 08-04 11:02:57 | (anonymous) 0x4cb7…df3d | No | SELL | 7 | 98¢ | $6 | 0x26516c… |
| 08-04 11:02:57 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 7 | 98¢ | $6 | 0x26516c… |
| 08-04 06:58:59 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 7 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x8f5298… |
| 08-04 06:58:59 | (anonymous) 0x4cb7…df3d | No | BUY | 7 | 98¢ | $6 | 0x8f5298… |
| 08-03 22:09:02 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0xfff427… |
| 08-03 22:09:02 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0xfff427… |
| 08-03 22:08:14 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 4 | 98¢ | $4 | 0x857170… |
| 08-03 22:08:14 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 4 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x857170… |
| 08-03 21:25:39 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x400b92… |
| 08-03 21:25:39 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x400b92… |
| 08-03 21:24:47 | Ignorant-Sponsorship 0xe821…b27e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x0b292f… |
| 08-03 21:24:47 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x0b292f… |
| 08-03 21:04:06 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xd35499… |
| 08-03 21:04:06 | (anonymous) 0xdb95…5b4d | No | SELL | 5 | 98¢ | $5 | 0xd35499… |
| 08-03 20:56:39 | (anonymous) 0x870f…6da1 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xec5690… |
| 08-03 20:56:39 | (anonymous) 0xc5b4…1f8a | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0xec5690… |