Shameless-Workout-Orchard 0x4d8694…4e1cb2
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$8.45K
Unrealized P&L
+$196
Hit rate
52.4%
Resolved
1,318
Trades
17,354
lifetime
Volume
$373.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$21
Open exposure
$1.23K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-23
last 10-28 12:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 168 days
Categories
Politics
43% 53% +$2,243
Other
35% 40% +$220
Crypto
13% 57% +$2,483
Sports
7% 39% +$3,333
Tech
1% 47% +$176
Pop-Culture
0% 57% -$9
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 85 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes -263 -$62 97¢ $-255 -$194 05-06 04:54
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes -778 -$65 28¢ $-216 -$151 05-22 13:34
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes +10,207 $42 2¢ $168 +$127 10-21 00:55
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -3,684 -$89 4¢ $-133 -$44 04-29 04:58
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes +8,698 $75 1¢ $117 +$42 10-28 11:09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -382 -$48 18¢ $-71 -$23 06-07 19:41
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? Yes +2,510 $23 2¢ $38 +$15 10-28 07:25
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -285 -$50 11¢ $-31 +$20 05-06 01:51
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No +1,185 $12 2¢ $30 +$18 10-28 08:50
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes +799 $6 4¢ $30 +$23 10-27 07:31
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -467 -$84 6¢ $-26 +$58 04-29 20:32
Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate? Yes +1,989 $18 1¢ $23 +$5 10-27 18:00
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes -747 -$74 2¢ $-16 +$59 06-30 04:16
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,429 $7 1¢ $12 +$5 10-08 12:55
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes -636 -$102 2¢ $-11 +$91 05-07 08:10
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +66 $3 15¢ $10 +$7 10-24 18:44
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No +454 $5 2¢ $7 +$2 10-28 06:41
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes -262 -$127 2¢ $-6 +$121 09-21 21:33
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? Yes +500 -$2 1¢ $5 +$7 10-27 21:09
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +3,333 $30 0¢ $5 -$25 05-25 22:11
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes -79 -$1 6¢ $-4 -$3 05-07 20:32
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -264 -$11 2¢ $-4 +$7 04-28 18:51
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -45 -$12 6¢ $-3 +$9 05-06 11:50
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -403 -$3 1¢ $-3 +$0 05-12 05:52
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -70 -$16 2¢ $-1 +$15 04-28 15:57
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes -25 $48 5¢ $-1 -$49 05-24 12:56
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? Yes +2 -$27 24¢ $1 +$28 10-25 20:57
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes +20 $1 2¢ $0 $0 10-15 06:13
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes +98 $4 0¢ $0 -$4 10-24 21:01
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026? Yes +161 -$30 0¢ $0 +$30 06-30 00:03