Realized P&L
+$67
Unrealized P&L
+$1
Hit rate
69.8%
Resolved
333
Trades
61,903
lifetime
Volume
$75.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$174
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-12
last 06-09 18:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 23 days
Categories
Other
46%
22%
+$31
Crypto
26%
30%
$-5
Politics
24%
31%
+$41
Tech
3%
—
—
Sports
1%
—
—
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 702 trades/day
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 188 | $747 | 8,660 | 8,909 | -249 | open | — | 05-29 20:40 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 395 | $728 | 15,779 | 15,618 | +161 | open | — | 03-04 18:33 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 196 | $560 | 8,196 | 8,236 | -40 | open | — | 03-29 05:04 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 239 | $554 | 8,960 | 8,960 | +0 | open | — | 03-30 10:47 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 202 | $500 | 7,351 | 7,329 | +22 | open | — | 03-04 18:34 |
| will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026 | 208 | $497 | 6,234 | 6,249 | -15 | open | — | 03-31 01:23 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747 | 150 | $379 | 5,990 | 6,017 | -27 | open | — | 03-30 11:59 |
| will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988 | 123 | $330 | 4,395 | 4,411 | -16 | open | — | 02-28 06:33 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 156 | $324 | 6,216 | 6,141 | +75 | open | — | 04-27 01:11 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 231 | $322 | 9,320 | 9,155 | +165 | open | — | 04-28 10:34 |
| will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935 | 73 | $319 | 3,013 | 2,777 | +236 | open | — | 02-28 06:24 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926 | 191 | $316 | 7,814 | 7,730 | +85 | open | — | 03-30 06:13 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 171 | $307 | 7,583 | 7,483 | +100 | open | — | 03-29 23:18 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | 259 | $288 | 8,689 | 8,558 | +131 | open | — | 05-31 07:49 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692 | 123 | $275 | 5,445 | 5,345 | +100 | open | — | 03-30 19:39 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 113 | $258 | 4,640 | 4,640 | +0 | open | — | 05-14 13:32 |
| will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026 | 169 | $252 | 5,645 | 5,643 | +2 | open | — | 03-30 12:07 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | 139 | $245 | 5,020 | 5,005 | +15 | open | — | 04-27 03:03 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 61 | $240 | 2,498 | 2,498 | +0 | Yes | +$7 | 05-07 20:25 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 151 | $239 | 6,798 | 6,898 | -100 | open | — | 03-29 08:47 |
| will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026 | 96 | $223 | 4,000 | 4,000 | +0 | open | — | 03-31 07:22 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 162 | $220 | 6,034 | 6,034 | +0 | open | — | 04-27 19:53 |
| will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282 | 155 | $212 | 6,530 | 6,270 | +260 | open | — | 04-01 00:08 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 209 | $211 | 8,785 | 8,634 | +151 | open | — | 03-29 20:51 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 76 | $208 | 2,134 | 2,134 | +0 | Yes | +$4 | 04-27 19:58 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 121 | $195 | 4,625 | 4,707 | -82 | open | — | 04-27 00:56 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 95 | $192 | 4,329 | 4,318 | +10 | open | — | 03-17 12:39 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 122 | $190 | 1,380 | 1,463 | -83 | open | — | 06-09 17:48 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | 168 | $184 | 6,621 | 6,560 | +61 | open | — | 05-29 21:42 |
| will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026 | 120 | $183 | 4,662 | 4,494 | +169 | open | — | 03-30 23:05 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 912 | $183.9K | 53,738 | 06-09 21:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xca8f…d963 | 883 | $435.1K | 202,710 | 05-08 22:12 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 863 | $5.44M | 109,345 | 06-09 21:24 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 774 | $457.6K | 7,008 | 06-08 23:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | 769 | $76.5K | 59,938 | 06-09 18:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2 | 707 | $905.5K | 81,347 | 04-01 06:17 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | 702 | $41.9K | 21,550 | 06-09 21:42 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | 663 | $35.7K | 11,636 | 03-27 21:25 |