US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$897,017
Trades
34,822
Unique wallets
9,236
Liquidity
$13,025
Latest YES mid
3¢
Latest NO mid
97¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-10 07:16
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+49.4¢
(top1%: 56% YES on $1.6K
vs crowd: 7% YES on $455.7K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 25 | $1.4K | $8.9K | $7.6K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 21 | $73 | $2.3K | $2.2K |
| 🐟 Fish | 444 | $2.9K | $59.2K | $56.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 8,746 | $25.7K | $355.3K | $329.6K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 5 | $896 | $704 | +$192 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 24 | $97 | $5.6K | $5.5K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 41 | $610 | $7.0K | $6.4K |
| Median | 1,459 | $4.5K | $59.4K | $54.8K |
| Below median | 792 | $2.8K | $35.1K | $32.3K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 17 | $235 | $3.0K | $2.8K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 20 | $167 | $2.2K | $2.0K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 6 | $370 | $1.3K | $893 |
| unranked | 6,872 | $20.3K | $311.4K | $291.2K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x5a42…371c | No | +5,000 | $4,670 | $4,670 | 1 | 07-12 16:17 |
| Made-Up-Glutamate 0xd352…4ad6 | Yes | +3,052 | $238 | $479 | 12 | 07-22 11:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xfafd…8233 | Yes | +2,500 | $155 | $155 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| Defiant-Competence-Initiative 0x7bc1…8db4 | Yes | +2,005 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 07-20 16:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | +703 | $669 | $669 | 31 | 08-10 07:16 |
| Glum-Surprise 0xbab2…a1f3 | Yes | +676 | $41 | $41 | 1 | 06-13 13:46 |
| Humiliating-Yacht 0x4a3d…2ce0 | Yes | +581 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 06-15 17:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x9171…a29c | Yes | +569 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 06-13 18:05 |
| Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92 | Yes | +508 | $30 | $1,630 | 313 | 06-16 02:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xd286…cd12 | No | +500 | $470 | $470 | 34 | 06-23 12:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bc1…6721 | Yes | +495 | $24 | $24 | 25 | 08-01 06:38 |
| (anonymous) 0xd770…652a | No | +420 | $394 | $394 | 2 | 06-30 09:03 |
| Low-Mythology 0x0a25…52c1 | Yes | +408 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 07-31 23:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xa542…e752 | No | +400 | $375 | $375 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x8875…9620 | Yes | +391 | $25 | $25 | 2 | 07-19 20:52 |
| Worse-Analogue 0x78bc…8fc3 | Yes | +382 | $21 | $22 | 2 | 06-16 15:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x2d7e…bf2e | No | +380 | $356 | $356 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x7637…88e6 | Yes | +363 | $22 | $22 | 2 | 06-13 11:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xa032…dfbd | Yes | +363 | $21 | $60 | 8 | 06-13 11:45 |
| Courageous-Pollutant 0x155f…6e6b | No | +350 | $328 | $328 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe1c…8f7d | No | +330 | $310 | $310 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| Rural-Counsellor 0xeaeb…f03e | No | +320 | $300 | $300 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xafbd…bd99 | Yes | +319 | $19 | $30 | 11 | 06-15 09:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xefa1…ea5d | No | +300 | $281 | $281 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| Subdued-Lane 0x56b1…0e9f | Yes | +289 | $14 | $14 | 8 | 07-19 00:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | +286 | $15 | $172 | 350 | 08-09 04:10 |
| Real-Diabetes 0x6de4…7516 | Yes | +286 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-13 16:21 |
| Hard-To-Find-Draft 0xf6bd…d26f | Yes | +266 | $19 | $82 | 4 | 06-13 03:38 |
| Angelic-Position 0x372c…67c6 | No | +265 | $249 | $249 | 2 | 06-15 10:01 |
| Focused-Dome 0xf1a1…281e | Yes | +240 | $15 | $38 | 7 | 06-16 00:48 |
| Unrealistic-Mailing 0x0a3d…3a84 | No | +204 | $192 | $192 | 2 | 06-15 00:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xf6c3…82af | Yes | +203 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 06-13 10:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x78f6…fc79 | Yes | +197 | $12 | $12 | 5 | 06-13 05:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x34e6…71cc | No | +196 | $184 | $916 | 8 | 06-17 01:03 |
| Upright-Reprocessing 0x05f1…881c | No | +193 | $181 | $181 | 1 | 06-13 15:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x4447…560a | Yes | +192 | $11 | $22 | 3 | 06-14 12:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xf8fa…b0ce | Yes | +192 | $12 | $23 | 5 | 06-13 09:57 |
| Deserted-Orchard 0x0ec0…b0d4 | No | +192 | $180 | $180 | 1 | 06-13 15:43 |
| Pitiful-Temple 0xd576…9c7e | No | +191 | $179 | $179 | 2 | 06-13 18:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | +190 | $178 | $197 | 11 | 07-22 13:16 |
| Humiliating-Bead 0xe29b…5175 | No | +189 | $177 | $880 | 6 | 06-14 09:25 |
| Fearful-Disparity 0xb77f…77de | Yes | +184 | $11 | $23 | 3 | 06-15 19:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xf981…e08c | Yes | +184 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-15 02:02 |
| Both-Conference 0x23af…194c | Yes | +184 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-14 15:11 |
| Insistent-Webmail 0x8335…9462 | No | +183 | $172 | $172 | 2 | 06-16 00:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x2f4a…16dc | Yes | +182 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-14 09:26 |
| Slight-Shoemaker 0xf5e8…e839 | Yes | +182 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-12 23:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xbcc5…83c1 | Yes | +177 | $11 | $21 | 3 | 06-14 05:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xfed7…85d0 | Yes | +176 | $12 | $29 | 4 | 06-14 04:58 |
| Overcooked-Lumber 0x10d1…00e1 | No | +176 | $165 | $165 | 2 | 06-14 04:42 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 07:16:49 | (anonymous) 0x391b…cf3e | No | BUY | 2 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xb09f20… |
| 08-10 07:16:49 | (anonymous) 0x6cc1…6375 | No | SELL | 2 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xb09f20… |
| 08-10 07:16:46 | (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xd199d3… |
| 08-10 07:16:46 | (anonymous) 0x8b8d…8e2d | Yes | BUY | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xd199d3… |
| 08-10 07:16:46 | (anonymous) 0x4656…41d7 | No | BUY | 15 | 95¢ | $14 | 0xd199d3… |
| 08-09 08:52:57 | (anonymous) 0x51ae…6907 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x068581… |
| 08-09 08:52:57 | (anonymous) 0x6cc1…6375 | No | SELL | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x068581… |
| 08-09 05:22:39 | (anonymous) 0x2520…a6be | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x1c3130… |
| 08-09 05:22:39 | (anonymous) 0x51ae…6907 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x1c3130… |
| 08-09 04:10:43 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x1f5567… |
| 08-09 04:10:43 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 24 | 97¢ | $23 | 0x1f5567… |
| 08-09 04:10:43 | (anonymous) 0x2f46…b792 | No | BUY | 29 | 97¢ | $28 | 0x1f5567… |
| 08-08 23:55:10 | (anonymous) 0xa4c1…9248 | No | BUY | 6 | 97¢ | $6 | 0x821e96… |
| 08-08 23:55:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 6 | 97¢ | $6 | 0x821e96… |
| 08-08 19:05:31 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 95¢ | $29 | 0xcc5703… |
| 08-08 19:05:31 | Composed-Intervention-Representation 0xee9d…9bcb | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xcc5703… |
| 08-08 13:16:51 | (anonymous) 0xccee…6dcf | Yes | BUY | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xc428f8… |
| 08-08 13:16:51 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xc428f8… |
| 08-08 13:16:51 | Empty-Debtor 0xaedd…150c | No | BUY | 11 | 95¢ | $11 | 0xc428f8… |
| 08-08 06:02:28 | Clumsy-Sea 0xf5a6…096e | No | SELL | 475 | 95¢ | $453 | 0x7368bd… |
| 08-08 06:02:28 | (anonymous) 0xf7a0…6974 | Yes | SELL | 475 | 5¢ | $22 | 0x7368bd… |
| 08-08 06:02:19 | Tepid-Base 0xd9bc…bc69 | No | SELL | 460 | 95¢ | $438 | 0x0316c7… |
| 08-08 06:02:19 | (anonymous) 0xf7a0…6974 | Yes | SELL | 460 | 5¢ | $22 | 0x0316c7… |
| 08-08 06:02:09 | Pretty-Rise 0x7994…d65e | Yes | SELL | 485 | 5¢ | $23 | 0x482097… |
| 08-08 06:02:09 | (anonymous) 0x525d…0bdf | No | SELL | 485 | 95¢ | $462 | 0x482097… |
| 08-08 06:01:58 | Worst-Baobab 0xb17c…b289 | No | SELL | 450 | 95¢ | $429 | 0xe72552… |
| 08-08 06:01:58 | Pretty-Rise 0x7994…d65e | Yes | SELL | 450 | 5¢ | $21 | 0xe72552… |
| 08-08 05:26:10 | (anonymous) 0x355d…0116 | Yes | SELL | 905 | 4¢ | $41 | 0x2ffdea… |
| 08-08 05:26:10 | (anonymous) 0x2d91…3928 | No | SELL | 445 | 96¢ | $425 | 0x2ffdea… |
| 08-08 05:26:10 | (anonymous) 0xbf88…620c | No | SELL | 460 | 96¢ | $439 | 0x2ffdea… |
| 08-08 05:25:37 | (anonymous) 0x0113…9f66 | No | SELL | 460 | 96¢ | $439 | 0x067689… |
| 08-08 05:25:37 | Whole-Steeple 0xb1db…c825 | No | SELL | 445 | 96¢ | $425 | 0x067689… |
| 08-08 05:25:37 | (anonymous) 0x1ba4…6e0c | Yes | SELL | 905 | 4¢ | $41 | 0x067689… |
| 08-08 05:14:09 | (anonymous) 0xc3ff…937b | No | SELL | 440 | 96¢ | $420 | 0x21c147… |
| 08-08 05:14:09 | (anonymous) 0x5e23…4b31 | No | SELL | 460 | 96¢ | $439 | 0x21c147… |
| 08-08 05:14:09 | (anonymous) 0xb9bd…f8a9 | Yes | SELL | 900 | 4¢ | $40 | 0x21c147… |
| 08-08 05:13:48 | (anonymous) 0x55fd…3444 | No | SELL | 460 | 96¢ | $439 | 0x6ca315… |
| 08-08 05:13:48 | Separate-Sprag 0x4f8a…7f02 | Yes | SELL | 900 | 4¢ | $40 | 0x6ca315… |
| 08-08 05:13:48 | (anonymous) 0x44b8…efec | No | SELL | 440 | 96¢ | $420 | 0x6ca315… |
| 08-08 04:55:39 | Clumsy-Sea 0xf5a6…096e | No | BUY | 475 | 95¢ | $453 | 0xff91d3… |
| 08-08 04:55:39 | (anonymous) 0xf7a0…6974 | Yes | BUY | 475 | 5¢ | $22 | 0xff91d3… |
| 08-08 04:55:25 | Tepid-Base 0xd9bc…bc69 | No | BUY | 460 | 95¢ | $438 | 0x65b992… |
| 08-08 04:55:25 | (anonymous) 0xf7a0…6974 | Yes | BUY | 460 | 5¢ | $22 | 0x65b992… |
| 08-08 04:55:07 | Pretty-Rise 0x7994…d65e | Yes | BUY | 485 | 5¢ | $23 | 0x209f79… |
| 08-08 04:55:07 | (anonymous) 0x525d…0bdf | No | BUY | 485 | 95¢ | $462 | 0x209f79… |
| 08-08 04:54:49 | Worst-Baobab 0xb17c…b289 | No | BUY | 450 | 95¢ | $429 | 0x021c72… |
| 08-08 04:54:49 | Pretty-Rise 0x7994…d65e | Yes | BUY | 450 | 5¢ | $21 | 0x021c72… |
| 08-08 03:53:58 | (anonymous) 0x55fd…3444 | No | BUY | 460 | 96¢ | $439 | 0xe364b1… |
| 08-08 03:53:58 | Separate-Sprag 0x4f8a…7f02 | Yes | BUY | 460 | 4¢ | $21 | 0xe364b1… |
| 08-08 03:53:57 | (anonymous) 0x44b8…efec | No | BUY | 440 | 96¢ | $420 | 0x7e7383… |
| 08-08 03:53:57 | Separate-Sprag 0x4f8a…7f02 | Yes | BUY | 440 | 4¢ | $20 | 0x7e7383… |
| 08-08 03:50:51 | (anonymous) 0xc3ff…937b | No | BUY | 440 | 96¢ | $420 | 0xf5c1dd… |
| 08-08 03:50:51 | (anonymous) 0xb9bd…f8a9 | Yes | BUY | 440 | 4¢ | $20 | 0xf5c1dd… |
| 08-08 03:50:49 | (anonymous) 0x5e23…4b31 | No | BUY | 460 | 96¢ | $439 | 0x85f38f… |
| 08-08 03:50:49 | (anonymous) 0xb9bd…f8a9 | Yes | BUY | 460 | 4¢ | $21 | 0x85f38f… |
| 08-08 03:43:06 | (anonymous) 0x1ba4…6e0c | Yes | BUY | 460 | 4¢ | $21 | 0x43a058… |
| 08-08 03:43:06 | (anonymous) 0xbf88…620c | No | BUY | 460 | 96¢ | $439 | 0x43a058… |
| 08-08 03:43:04 | Whole-Steeple 0xb1db…c825 | No | BUY | 445 | 96¢ | $425 | 0xe5c8ce… |
| 08-08 03:43:04 | (anonymous) 0x1ba4…6e0c | Yes | BUY | 445 | 4¢ | $20 | 0xe5c8ce… |
| 08-08 03:41:43 | (anonymous) 0x2d91…3928 | No | BUY | 445 | 96¢ | $425 | 0x483253… |
| 08-08 03:41:43 | (anonymous) 0x355d…0116 | Yes | BUY | 445 | 4¢ | $20 | 0x483253… |
| 08-08 03:41:42 | (anonymous) 0x355d…0116 | Yes | BUY | 460 | 4¢ | $21 | 0x6bf490… |
| 08-08 03:41:42 | (anonymous) 0x0113…9f66 | No | BUY | 460 | 96¢ | $439 | 0x6bf490… |
| 08-07 15:44:09 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc068b7… |
| 08-07 15:44:09 | (anonymous) 0x6cc1…6375 | No | SELL | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0xc068b7… |
| 08-07 15:39:06 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 14 | 97¢ | $14 | 0x0b9ae7… |
| 08-07 15:39:06 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x0b9ae7… |
| 08-07 15:39:06 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x0b9ae7… |
| 08-07 15:39:06 | (anonymous) 0x6cc1…6375 | No | SELL | 18 | 97¢ | $18 | 0x0b9ae7… |
| 08-07 15:39:06 | (anonymous) 0xccee…6dcf | Yes | SELL | 62 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x0b9ae7… |
| 08-07 15:31:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 14 | 95¢ | $13 | 0x8c8b5d… |
| 08-07 15:31:24 | (anonymous) 0xa18c…d792 | No | BUY | 7 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x8c8b5d… |
| 08-07 15:31:24 | (anonymous) 0xccee…6dcf | Yes | BUY | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x8c8b5d… |
| 08-07 15:01:57 | (anonymous) 0xccee…6dcf | Yes | BUY | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xce9e49… |
| 08-07 15:01:57 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 16 | 95¢ | $15 | 0xce9e49… |
| 08-07 15:01:57 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xce9e49… |
| 08-07 11:24:27 | (anonymous) 0x8b8d…8e2d | Yes | SELL | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x79af57… |
| 08-07 11:24:27 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x79af57… |
| 08-07 11:24:27 | Awful-Task 0x798b…e349 | No | SELL | 11 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x79af57… |
| 08-07 11:24:27 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x79af57… |
| 08-07 11:22:25 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xb9a7da… |
| 08-07 11:22:25 | (anonymous) 0x8b8d…8e2d | Yes | BUY | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xb9a7da… |
| 08-07 08:22:31 | (anonymous) 0xccee…6dcf | Yes | BUY | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x08e0d6… |
| 08-07 08:22:31 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x08e0d6… |
| 08-07 07:44:04 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x123cd9… |
| 08-07 07:44:04 | (anonymous) 0x7826…b165 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x123cd9… |
| 08-07 06:40:12 | (anonymous) 0x6cc1…6375 | No | SELL | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x0a51d7… |
| 08-07 06:40:12 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x0a51d7… |
| 08-07 06:40:12 | (anonymous) 0x8b8d…8e2d | Yes | SELL | 18 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x0a51d7… |
| 08-07 06:32:18 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x974ea8… |
| 08-07 06:32:18 | (anonymous) 0x8b8d…8e2d | Yes | BUY | 18 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x974ea8… |
| 08-07 06:32:18 | Awful-Task 0x798b…e349 | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x974ea8… |
| 08-07 06:12:21 | (anonymous) 0x6cc1…6375 | No | SELL | 12 | 97¢ | $12 | 0xdb8a3c… |
| 08-07 06:12:21 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xdb8a3c… |
| 08-07 06:12:21 | (anonymous) 0x8b8d…8e2d | Yes | SELL | 24 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xdb8a3c… |
| 08-07 05:57:06 | (anonymous) 0x97e1…7efa | No | BUY | 20 | 96¢ | $20 | 0x4398c3… |
| 08-07 05:57:06 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x4398c3… |
| 08-07 05:57:06 | (anonymous) 0x8b8d…8e2d | Yes | BUY | 24 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x4398c3… |
| 08-06 19:05:18 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x2927ff… |
| 08-06 19:05:18 | (anonymous) 0x97e1…7efa | No | BUY | 13 | 96¢ | $12 | 0x2927ff… |