US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$842,548
Trades
33,783
Unique wallets
9,064
Liquidity
$13,025
Latest YES mid
5¢
Latest NO mid
95¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-04 19:29
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+48.8¢
(top1%: 55% YES on $1.6K
vs crowd: 7% YES on $426.7K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 17 | $889 | $7.6K | $6.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 16 | $71 | $2.1K | $2.0K |
| 🐟 Fish | 398 | $2.9K | $36.9K | $34.0K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 8,633 | $24.5K | $351.8K | $327.4K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $874 | $704 | +$170 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 21 | $97 | $5.4K | $5.3K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 40 | $462 | $6.4K | $5.9K |
| Median | 1,421 | $4.5K | $56.0K | $51.5K |
| Below median | 775 | $2.6K | $33.4K | $30.8K |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 16 | $133 | $3.0K | $2.9K |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 18 | $165 | $2.1K | $1.9K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $11 | $1.1K | $1.0K |
| unranked | 6,765 | $19.5K | $290.4K | $271.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0xfafd…8233 | Yes | +2,500 | $155 | $155 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| Hurtful-Rumor 0x7858…f587 | Yes | +2,300 | $145 | $145 | 1 | 06-30 06:42 |
| Glum-Surprise 0xbab2…a1f3 | Yes | +676 | $41 | $41 | 1 | 06-13 13:46 |
| Humiliating-Yacht 0x4a3d…2ce0 | Yes | +581 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 06-15 17:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x9171…a29c | Yes | +569 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 06-13 18:05 |
| Blaring-Backdrop 0x8a98…1b92 | Yes | +508 | $30 | $1,630 | 313 | 06-16 02:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xd286…cd12 | No | +500 | $470 | $470 | 34 | 06-23 12:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xd770…652a | No | +420 | $394 | $394 | 2 | 06-30 09:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xdfca…b655 | Yes | +405 | $22 | $22 | 15 | 07-04 19:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xa542…e752 | No | +400 | $375 | $375 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xf0be…a70a | No | +400 | $375 | $375 | 1 | 06-30 06:42 |
| Worse-Analogue 0x78bc…8fc3 | Yes | +382 | $21 | $22 | 2 | 06-16 15:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x2d7e…bf2e | No | +380 | $356 | $356 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xa032…dfbd | Yes | +363 | $21 | $60 | 8 | 06-13 11:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x7637…88e6 | Yes | +363 | $22 | $22 | 2 | 06-13 11:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xbed8…3705 | No | +360 | $337 | $337 | 1 | 06-30 06:42 |
| Colorful-Wetland 0x5b74…fdfd | No | +350 | $328 | $328 | 1 | 06-30 06:42 |
| Courageous-Pollutant 0x155f…6e6b | No | +350 | $328 | $328 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| Mealy-Tub-Visitor 0x4c56…eccd | No | +330 | $310 | $310 | 1 | 06-30 06:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe1c…8f7d | No | +330 | $310 | $310 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| Rural-Counsellor 0xeaeb…f03e | No | +320 | $300 | $300 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xafbd…bd99 | Yes | +319 | $19 | $30 | 11 | 06-15 09:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x2074…3839 | No | +310 | $290 | $290 | 1 | 06-30 06:42 |
| (anonymous) 0xefa1…ea5d | No | +300 | $281 | $281 | 1 | 06-30 09:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xd8d5…8262 | No | +300 | $281 | $281 | 1 | 06-30 06:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | +290 | $17 | $149 | 216 | 07-04 19:29 |
| Real-Diabetes 0x6de4…7516 | Yes | +286 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-13 16:21 |
| Hard-To-Find-Draft 0xf6bd…d26f | Yes | +266 | $19 | $82 | 4 | 06-13 03:38 |
| Angelic-Position 0x372c…67c6 | No | +265 | $249 | $249 | 2 | 06-15 10:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xcef0…d5b0 | No | +250 | $234 | $234 | 1 | 06-30 06:42 |
| Focused-Dome 0xf1a1…281e | Yes | +240 | $15 | $38 | 7 | 06-16 00:48 |
| Unrealistic-Mailing 0x0a3d…3a84 | No | +204 | $192 | $192 | 2 | 06-15 00:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xf6c3…82af | Yes | +203 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 06-13 10:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x78f6…fc79 | Yes | +197 | $12 | $12 | 5 | 06-13 05:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x34e6…71cc | No | +196 | $184 | $916 | 8 | 06-17 01:03 |
| Upright-Reprocessing 0x05f1…881c | No | +193 | $181 | $181 | 1 | 06-13 15:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xf8fa…b0ce | Yes | +192 | $12 | $23 | 5 | 06-13 09:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x4447…560a | Yes | +192 | $11 | $22 | 3 | 06-14 12:36 |
| Deserted-Orchard 0x0ec0…b0d4 | No | +192 | $180 | $180 | 1 | 06-13 15:43 |
| Pitiful-Temple 0xd576…9c7e | No | +191 | $179 | $179 | 2 | 06-13 18:50 |
| Humiliating-Bead 0xe29b…5175 | No | +189 | $177 | $880 | 6 | 06-14 09:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xf981…e08c | Yes | +184 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-15 02:02 |
| Fearful-Disparity 0xb77f…77de | Yes | +184 | $11 | $23 | 3 | 06-15 19:22 |
| Both-Conference 0x23af…194c | Yes | +184 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-14 15:11 |
| Insistent-Webmail 0x8335…9462 | No | +183 | $172 | $172 | 2 | 06-16 00:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x2f4a…16dc | Yes | +182 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-14 09:26 |
| Slight-Shoemaker 0xf5e8…e839 | Yes | +182 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-12 23:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xbcc5…83c1 | Yes | +177 | $11 | $21 | 3 | 06-14 05:59 |
| (anonymous) 0x45ce…2bcd | No | +177 | $166 | $166 | 1 | 06-12 12:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xfed7…85d0 | Yes | +176 | $12 | $29 | 4 | 06-14 04:58 |
| Overcooked-Lumber 0x10d1…00e1 | No | +176 | $165 | $165 | 2 | 06-14 04:42 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 19:29:31 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xed240c… |
| 07-04 19:29:31 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xed240c… |
| 07-04 19:29:23 | (anonymous) 0xdfca…b655 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x9d84d0… |
| 07-04 19:29:23 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x9d84d0… |
| 07-04 18:15:19 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x9c9944… |
| 07-04 18:15:19 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9c9944… |
| 07-04 18:15:10 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x3b1846… |
| 07-04 18:15:10 | (anonymous) 0xdfca…b655 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x3b1846… |
| 07-04 18:11:53 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x61a1f8… |
| 07-04 18:11:53 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x61a1f8… |
| 07-04 18:11:46 | (anonymous) 0xdfca…b655 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xef1d2e… |
| 07-04 18:11:46 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xef1d2e… |
| 07-04 17:22:47 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x103da1… |
| 07-04 17:22:47 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x103da1… |
| 07-04 17:22:32 | (anonymous) 0xdfca…b655 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x210730… |
| 07-04 17:22:32 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x210730… |
| 07-04 15:40:14 | (anonymous) 0xc03d…ca87 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xa2dbc0… |
| 07-04 15:40:14 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xa2dbc0… |
| 07-04 15:39:59 | (anonymous) 0xc03d…ca87 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x81ec46… |
| 07-04 15:39:59 | (anonymous) 0xdfca…b655 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x81ec46… |
| 07-04 15:16:37 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x614043… |
| 07-04 15:16:37 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0x614043… |
| 07-04 15:16:29 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0xc6a617… |
| 07-04 15:16:29 | (anonymous) 0xdfca…b655 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xc6a617… |
| 07-04 15:06:28 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9a1297… |
| 07-04 15:06:28 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x9a1297… |
| 07-04 15:06:20 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x4ad8b5… |
| 07-04 15:06:20 | (anonymous) 0xdfca…b655 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x4ad8b5… |
| 07-04 00:35:40 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x2ba314… |
| 07-04 00:35:40 | (anonymous) 0x0fa4…4c9c | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x2ba314… |
| 07-03 22:43:49 | (anonymous) 0xdfca…b655 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xdce047… |
| 07-03 22:43:49 | (anonymous) 0x0fa4…4c9c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xdce047… |
| 07-03 20:39:55 | (anonymous) 0xced4…d1dd | No | BUY | 106 | 95¢ | $100 | 0x144541… |
| 07-03 20:39:55 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0x144541… |
| 07-03 20:39:55 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 48 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x144541… |
| 07-03 20:39:55 | (anonymous) 0xdfca…b655 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x144541… |
| 07-03 07:33:13 | (anonymous) 0xf30e…ebe2 | No | BUY | 4 | 94¢ | $3 | 0xb2a242… |
| 07-03 07:33:13 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | SELL | 4 | 94¢ | $3 | 0xb2a242… |
| 07-02 17:43:32 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 38 | 94¢ | $36 | 0xa5a388… |
| 07-02 17:43:32 | Unknown-Integer 0x8947…f4b4 | No | BUY | 38 | 94¢ | $36 | 0xa5a388… |
| 07-02 16:51:19 | (anonymous) 0xca84…27f4 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xdb4aa3… |
| 07-02 16:51:19 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xdb4aa3… |
| 07-02 16:51:10 | (anonymous) 0xca84…27f4 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xa6a97f… |
| 07-02 16:51:10 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xa6a97f… |
| 07-02 15:14:53 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x4fce93… |
| 07-02 15:14:53 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x4fce93… |
| 07-02 15:14:44 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x83ed76… |
| 07-02 15:14:44 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x83ed76… |
| 07-02 14:03:43 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xd6d497… |
| 07-02 14:03:43 | (anonymous) 0x4d66…54c3 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xd6d497… |
| 07-02 14:03:37 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x10369a… |
| 07-02 14:03:37 | (anonymous) 0x4d66…54c3 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x10369a… |
| 07-02 13:54:05 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x475538… |
| 07-02 13:54:05 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x475538… |
| 07-02 13:53:58 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xec5977… |
| 07-02 13:53:58 | (anonymous) 0xcb82…8935 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xec5977… |
| 07-02 13:52:10 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7b0624… |
| 07-02 13:52:10 | (anonymous) 0x5f42…e101 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7b0624… |
| 07-02 13:52:01 | (anonymous) 0x5f42…e101 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xbf9f62… |
| 07-02 13:52:01 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xbf9f62… |
| 07-02 13:21:13 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x8d9b7c… |
| 07-02 13:21:13 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x8d9b7c… |
| 07-02 13:21:02 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x33f6f5… |
| 07-02 13:21:02 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x33f6f5… |
| 07-02 12:46:59 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7174aa… |
| 07-02 12:46:59 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7174aa… |
| 07-02 12:46:52 | (anonymous) 0x7b52…06a1 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x404863… |
| 07-02 12:46:52 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x404863… |
| 07-02 12:15:29 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xa807ea… |
| 07-02 12:15:29 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xa807ea… |
| 07-02 12:15:23 | (anonymous) 0xa920…07a4 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x797e11… |
| 07-02 12:15:23 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x797e11… |
| 07-02 12:07:40 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | SELL | 7 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xd02201… |
| 07-02 12:07:40 | (anonymous) 0x7f29…0760 | No | BUY | 7 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xd02201… |
| 07-02 12:07:31 | (anonymous) 0xd390…89ae | No | BUY | 7 | 94¢ | $6 | 0x2212d2… |
| 07-02 12:07:31 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 7 | 94¢ | $6 | 0x2212d2… |
| 07-02 06:56:29 | Trivial-Newsstand 0x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | SELL | 271 | 6¢ | $16 | 0xefcb96… |
| 07-02 06:56:29 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 271 | 94¢ | $255 | 0xefcb96… |
| 07-02 06:12:29 | Glistening-Die 0x2db9…33f1 | No | SELL | 0 | 94¢ | $0 | 0xce5a83… |
| 07-02 06:12:29 | Awful-Task 0x798b…e349 | No | SELL | 11 | 94¢ | $10 | 0xce5a83… |
| 07-02 06:12:29 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xce5a83… |
| 07-02 06:12:29 | Trivial-Newsstand 0x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xce5a83… |
| 07-02 03:38:32 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7cc539… |
| 07-02 03:38:32 | (anonymous) 0xb201…f6ae | No | SELL | 6 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x7cc539… |
| 07-01 15:09:55 | Gummy-Sale 0xee29…89d8 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x76534e… |
| 07-01 15:09:55 | Rewarding-Subset 0x7399…46d6 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x76534e… |
| 07-01 15:09:55 | Minty-Maternity 0xe1e2…9629 | No | BUY | 21 | 94¢ | $20 | 0x76534e… |
| 07-01 15:09:55 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x76534e… |
| 07-01 07:43:59 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xe23b6a… |
| 07-01 07:43:59 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xe23b6a… |
| 07-01 07:43:52 | (anonymous) 0x1bbb…8177 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xf40961… |
| 07-01 07:43:52 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xf40961… |
| 07-01 07:14:10 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | SELL | 9 | 94¢ | $8 | 0x15a95f… |
| 07-01 07:14:10 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x15a95f… |
| 07-01 07:13:59 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | SELL | 9 | 94¢ | $8 | 0x1a685e… |
| 07-01 07:13:59 | (anonymous) 0xe29f…e326 | No | BUY | 9 | 94¢ | $8 | 0x1a685e… |
| 07-01 05:36:01 | (anonymous) 0x1b73…cbb4 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xbe808c… |
| 07-01 05:36:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xbe808c… |
| 07-01 05:35:53 | Hideous-Register 0x458c…c504 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xe8abc1… |
| 07-01 05:35:53 | (anonymous) 0x1b73…cbb4 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xe8abc1… |