Insistent-Webmail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

9.2%

Resolved

Trades

185

lifetime

Volume

$19.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$105

Open exposure

$173

1 position

First seen

2026-04-14

last 06-25 03:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

59% — —

Other

36% — —

Sports

4% 50% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No		+183	$172	94¢	$173	+$1	06-16 00:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	4	$2.2K	1,126	1,126	+0	open	—	04-15 20:55
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	2	$2.1K	1,071	1,071	+0	open	—	05-12 02:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	5	$2.1K	1,078	1,078	+0	open	—	05-11 11:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	5	$896	530	530	+0	open	—	06-14 20:37
Will Alberta join the US?	13	$869	1,120	1,120	+0	open	—	06-07 11:13
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	7	$848	472	472	+0	open	—	06-24 16:53
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	11	$830	992	992	+0	open	—	06-20 21:18
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$584	297	297	+0	No	$-0	04-15 08:13
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	6	$570	611	611	+0	open	—	06-13 14:38
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	6	$442	251	251	+0	open	—	06-24 05:20
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$437	254	254	+0	open	—	06-13 03:50
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	6	$425	250	250	+0	open	—	06-23 15:40
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	2	$411	208	208	+0	open	—	06-02 21:04
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$408	213	213	+0	open	—	06-10 07:34
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	3	$408	255	255	+0	open	—	06-08 22:35
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$407	293	293	+0	open	—	06-03 16:50
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	5	$405	206	206	+0	open	—	06-04 21:09
israel closes its airspace by june 8	4	$405	206	206	+0	open	—	06-08 17:20
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	4	$404	222	222	+0	open	—	06-18 03:07
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	3	$379	194	194	+0	open	—	06-24 09:46
Netanyahu out by June 30?	2	$379	193	193	+0	open	—	06-10 20:40
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	4	$368	214	214	+0	open	—	06-25 03:05
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	4	$362	292	292	+0	open	—	06-17 16:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$346	288	288	+0	open	—	06-01 23:28
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	4	$338	214	214	+0	open	—	06-09 05:08
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	12	$328	1,480	1,297	+183	open	—	06-16 00:42
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$317	165	165	+0	open	—	05-21 21:49
Iran Nuke before 2027?	3	$305	168	168	+0	open	—	06-09 13:48
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	3	$227	0	272	-272	open	—	05-24 06:49
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	4	$206	172	172	+0	open	—	06-10 12:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 03:05:25	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	11	86¢	$9	0x41b59d…
06-25 01:54:35	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	144	86¢	$124	0xd35d81…
06-25 01:54:35	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	59	86¢	$51	0x97f227…
06-24 23:33:02	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	214	86¢	$184	0xfc6319…
06-24 16:53:59	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	91¢	$30	0xd6b68d…
06-24 16:53:59	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	26	91¢	$24	0x9a34a6…
06-24 16:53:59	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	184	91¢	$168	0x6eeeb1…
06-24 13:36:23	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	243	91¢	$221	0x9a01f1…
06-24 09:46:43	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	194	98¢	$190	0x2200e0…
06-24 08:01:43	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	185	98¢	$181	0xf2fecc…
06-24 08:01:43	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xe5d2ed…
06-24 05:20:52	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	144	88¢	$127	0xbb8ee2…
06-24 05:20:52	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	33	88¢	$29	0xb256b1…
06-24 05:20:52	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	74	88¢	$65	0x7383c5…
06-24 01:15:32	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xc1fe87…
06-24 01:14:55	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	56	88¢	$49	0xbf7682…
06-24 01:14:55	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	175	88¢	$154	0x985b10…
06-23 15:40:40	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	42	89¢	$37	0xde0415…
06-23 15:40:40	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	102	89¢	$91	0xa74eea…
06-23 15:40:40	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	23	89¢	$20	0x5af335…
06-23 15:40:40	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	35	89¢	$31	0x3098e5…
06-23 15:40:40	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	48	89¢	$43	0x194272…
06-23 11:47:59	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	250	81¢	$202	0x7bcd14…
06-20 21:18:52	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0xd3fb0e…
06-20 21:07:02	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	18¢	$8	0xdbb80a…
06-20 21:07:02	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	18¢	$8	0x35f945…
06-20 21:07:02	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	18¢	$8	0x10e0a4…
06-20 20:56:16	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x54121b…
06-20 18:55:31	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	481	18¢	$87	0xe0c3a3…
06-20 15:31:52	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	BUY	631	18¢	$114	0xfba00e…
06-20 05:53:59	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	64	88¢	$57	0xb10055…
06-20 05:53:59	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	165	88¢	$146	0x21e308…
06-20 02:50:23	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	229	88¢	$203	0x8536e3…
06-19 21:26:35	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	120	82¢	$98	0xf9f4c1…
06-19 18:43:02	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0xf91c05…
06-18 22:20:55	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	118	49¢	$58	0x276d5a…
06-18 22:20:55	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	43	49¢	$21	0x18e0d0…
06-18 20:13:47	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	27	48¢	$13	0xaa5083…
06-18 20:13:47	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	134	48¢	$64	0x4062b5…
06-18 10:54:04	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	241	84¢	$202	0x3fe30b…
06-18 07:27:17	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	241	84¢	$202	0x4e7ca4…
06-18 03:07:23	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x4da7bf…
06-18 03:07:23	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	158	91¢	$144	0x435847…
06-18 03:07:22	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	53	91¢	$48	0x5ee2c2…
06-17 23:43:40	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	222	91¢	$202	0x0bf396…
06-17 16:06:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	206	62¢	$128	0xfacb6d…
06-17 16:06:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	86	62¢	$53	0x1cade4…
06-17 16:03:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	212	62¢	$131	0xbf705f…
06-17 16:03:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0x2ffe82…
06-16 00:42:10	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	129	94¢	$121	0xafd1c5…
06-16 00:42:10	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	54	94¢	$51	0x8f53d7…
06-15 07:56:21	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	6¢	$1	0x111139…
06-15 05:55:39	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	6¢	$3	0x9b49d9…
06-15 05:55:39	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	208	6¢	$12	0x4a45f3…
06-15 05:55:37	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	201	6¢	$12	0x9f318c…
06-15 05:55:37	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	204	6¢	$12	0x14ba23…
06-15 03:52:07	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	674	6¢	$40	0x6c8233…
06-14 20:37:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	14	85¢	$12	0x06234d…
06-14 13:11:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	248	85¢	$211	0xfa4bad…
06-14 12:05:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	262	85¢	$223	0x7f2dab…
06-14 06:48:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	268	83¢	$222	0xe424ac…
06-14 03:49:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	268	85¢	$228	0x115381…
06-13 14:38:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	231	20¢	$46	0xb5fd5c…
06-13 14:38:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	94	20¢	$19	0x4f971d…
06-13 14:38:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x4cd0b3…
06-13 12:56:10	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	330	20¢	$66	0x0dcd4d…
06-13 07:51:57	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	281	78¢	$219	0x1d5026…
06-13 06:06:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	281	78¢	$219	0x2c4f1d…
06-13 03:50:49	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	254	86¢	$219	0x146fa9…
06-13 02:30:03	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	254	86¢	$218	0xd20b50…
06-12 19:29:40	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0xe58656…
06-12 19:29:36	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	434	6¢	$26	0xaf788c…
06-12 19:29:36	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	6¢	$11	0x89992a…
06-12 17:30:07	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	623	6¢	$39	0xe3b3ea…
06-10 20:40:12	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	193	98¢	$190	0x7b2abf…
06-10 17:40:33	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	193	98¢	$190	0x0d16cb…
06-10 12:53:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	156	58¢	$90	0x9063c7…
06-10 12:53:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	16	58¢	$9	0x1ed2a0…
06-10 11:44:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	134	62¢	$83	0x764853…
06-10 11:44:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	38	62¢	$24	0x15ab76…
06-10 07:34:52	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	109	96¢	$104	0xd1d03f…
06-10 07:34:52	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	58	96¢	$56	0xc10eb0…
06-10 07:34:52	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0x5270fb…
06-10 05:27:18	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	162	96¢	$155	0xc69065…
06-10 05:27:18	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	96¢	$49	0x9ac8aa…
06-09 13:48:55	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	128	91¢	$116	0xbe5c0f…
06-09 13:48:55	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0xb09b1b…
06-09 09:55:00	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	168	90¢	$152	0x96bcec…
06-09 05:08:51	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	SELL	122	79¢	$96	0x38b588…
06-09 05:08:49	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	SELL	92	79¢	$73	0xebd871…
06-09 03:17:42	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xc3cce0…
06-09 03:17:42	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	BUY	209	79¢	$165	0x5419fb…
06-08 22:35:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	255	80¢	$204	0xe41ec1…
06-08 20:52:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	128	80¢	$102	0x4b9502…
06-08 20:52:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	127	80¢	$102	0x30b104…
06-08 17:20:52	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x9b51f9…
06-08 17:20:52	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	183	99¢	$181	0x7e7130…
06-08 15:19:49	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	23	98¢	$22	0x75f475…
06-08 15:19:49	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	183	98¢	$179	0x276556…
06-07 19:30:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x6e2e3a…