Unrealistic-Mailing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

50.7%

Resolved

Trades

157

lifetime

Volume

$10.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

$193

1 position

First seen

2026-03-07

last 06-25 03:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

66% 67% +$1

Politics

34% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No		+204	$192	94¢	$193	+$1	06-15 00:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$1.2K	647	647	+0	Yes	+$0	04-23 01:03
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$1.2K	619	619	+0	No	+$1	03-21 03:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$1.0K	530	530	+0	open	—	04-23 22:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	10	$835	820	820	+0	open	—	06-09 14:18
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	14	$434	610	666	-56	open	—	06-09 23:47
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	12	$421	407	407	+0	open	—	06-01 08:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$360	423	423	+0	open	—	06-12 11:33
will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	4	$355	182	182	+0	open	—	03-09 10:18
will ethan hawke win best actor at the 98th academy awards	3	$347	176	176	+0	open	—	03-09 07:52
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	6	$344	385	385	+0	open	—	06-05 18:40
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	4	$314	218	110	+108	open	—	05-28 21:07
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	4	$237	289	289	+0	open	—	06-18 23:09
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$221	128	128	+0	open	—	06-01 08:00
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	3	$209	106	106	+0	open	—	06-07 16:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$206	132	132	+0	open	—	05-25 01:49
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	3	$204	112	112	+0	open	—	05-27 18:23
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	3	$197	147	147	+0	open	—	06-09 09:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$194	110	110	+0	open	—	06-20 20:16
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	2	$192	204	0	+204	open	—	06-15 00:52
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	2	$190	100	100	+0	open	—	05-16 22:23
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	3	$180	96	96	+0	open	—	06-18 04:44
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	4	$177	103	103	+0	open	—	06-23 14:28
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	4	$176	119	119	+0	open	—	06-20 13:14
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	2	$175	98	98	+0	open	—	06-24 06:07
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	2	$174	89	89	+0	open	—	06-25 03:03
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	4	$102	257	355	-98	open	—	06-01 08:04
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	1	$100	136	0	+136	open	—	06-15 11:59
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	3	$78	107	107	+0	open	—	06-08 16:42
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	1	$56	266	0	+266	open	—	06-12 18:08
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	7	$51	85	85	+0	open	—	06-23 05:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 03:03:52	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	89	97¢	$87	0xdc8996…
06-24 20:57:17	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	89	98¢	$87	0x41b15e…
06-24 06:07:05	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	SELL	98	89¢	$87	0xb78ec4…
06-24 02:27:13	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	BUY	98	90¢	$88	0x0a5d0c…
06-23 21:58:56	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	197	8¢	$16	0xb8f31b…
06-23 20:06:01	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	104	8¢	$8	0xd61872…
06-23 20:06:01	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	87	8¢	$7	0xa215fe…
06-23 20:06:01	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x6da3da…
06-23 14:28:08	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	103	86¢	$89	0x499262…
06-23 11:32:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	38	86¢	$33	0xb8bee8…
06-23 11:32:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	19	86¢	$16	0x1b3770…
06-23 11:32:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	46	86¢	$40	0x162769…
06-23 05:40:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0xfd44ef…
06-23 05:40:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xa336cf…
06-23 05:39:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xc0e950…
06-23 05:39:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	SELL	59	30¢	$18	0xc0f385…
06-23 05:39:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	SELL	6	30¢	$2	0x1eec7c…
06-23 04:23:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	59	30¢	$18	0xcc228d…
06-23 04:23:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	BUY	26	30¢	$8	0x7b986c…
06-21 16:44:08	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	7¢	$1	0x717264…
06-21 16:44:07	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	37	7¢	$3	0x1d5a3a…
06-21 14:25:05	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	55	7¢	$4	0xa579a3…
06-20 20:16:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	41	88¢	$36	0xcdb670…
06-20 20:16:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	69	88¢	$61	0x9366a0…
06-20 20:14:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	110	88¢	$97	0x28f618…
06-20 13:14:14	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x02ebea…
06-20 13:14:11	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xd2e4ee…
06-20 13:14:11	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	109	74¢	$81	0xcb38fc…
06-20 11:38:59	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	119	74¢	$88	0x5853f5…
06-19 16:46:19	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	148	7¢	$10	0x6e799c…
06-19 16:46:17	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	31	7¢	$2	0x7c28c8…
06-19 14:29:23	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	179	7¢	$13	0xb29d8c…
06-18 23:09:11	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	177	11¢	$20	0x4837d5…
06-18 21:46:17	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	177	11¢	$20	0xea46cd…
06-18 13:00:17	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	112	88¢	$99	0xec6d4c…
06-18 11:05:26	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	112	88¢	$99	0xe5b896…
06-18 04:44:52	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	96	94¢	$90	0xa8a8c3…
06-18 00:36:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	51	94¢	$48	0xd2dfea…
06-18 00:36:20	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	45	94¢	$42	0x5a237a…
06-15 11:59:06	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	136	74¢	$100	0xed7f2c…
06-15 00:52:43	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	97	94¢	$91	0x4555f9…
06-14 22:02:43	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	107	94¢	$101	0x76623d…
06-13 16:45:42	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x1dfba3…
06-12 18:08:03	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	266	21¢	$56	0x911743…
06-12 11:33:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	66	44¢	$29	0xd38c6c…
06-12 11:32:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	166	44¢	$73	0xa2a395…
06-12 10:09:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	232	47¢	$109	0x805f8e…
06-10 23:39:48	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	105	10¢	$10	0x19882b…
06-10 16:41:00	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	105	10¢	$10	0xa0088b…
06-09 23:47:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	48	98¢	$47	0xb97175…
06-09 23:47:55	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	53	98¢	$52	0x9ce2e6…
06-09 19:32:13	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xb13535…
06-09 19:32:13	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	96	97¢	$93	0xa2723a…
06-09 14:18:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	157	45¢	$71	0xb6291d…
06-09 12:36:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	157	45¢	$71	0xc37d34…
06-09 09:16:03	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	139	67¢	$93	0xf81530…
06-09 09:16:01	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0x509a24…
06-09 06:46:16	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	BUY	147	67¢	$98	0x302965…
06-09 05:31:54	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	104	2¢	$2	0xd4afd9…
06-09 05:31:54	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	39	2¢	$1	0x940814…
06-09 05:31:54	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	95	2¢	$2	0x7b414e…
06-09 05:31:54	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	SELL	110	2¢	$2	0x1eb8c3…
06-09 01:33:15	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	74	2¢	$1	0xa0d099…
06-09 01:32:46	israel closes its airspace by june 9	Yes	BUY	274	2¢	$5	0x6232dc…
06-08 16:42:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	34¢	$3	0xf65fc6…
06-08 16:42:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	99	34¢	$34	0xc1e080…
06-08 15:22:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	107	39¢	$42	0x36d81a…
06-07 16:37:13	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0xe95064…
06-07 16:37:13	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	61	98¢	$60	0xa19640…
06-07 13:49:34	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	106	98¢	$104	0x2f65f0…
06-07 09:08:12	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xc0dab7…
06-07 09:08:12	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	116	4¢	$5	0x9f8f2b…
06-07 07:09:18	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	17	4¢	$1	0xef05ae…
06-07 07:09:18	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	88	4¢	$4	0xca9ea5…
06-07 07:09:18	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0x31f8a9…
06-06 17:02:27	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0xd15352…
06-06 17:02:27	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	111	4¢	$4	0x202836…
06-06 12:26:54	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	82	4¢	$3	0xf2f067…
06-06 12:26:54	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	4¢	$2	0x88a972…
06-06 08:47:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x996213…
06-06 08:47:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	129	50¢	$64	0x8d75a0…
06-06 07:06:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	229	50¢	$114	0xd3b04f…
06-05 18:40:27	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	137	70¢	$96	0xa3a2c6…
06-05 18:40:27	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	12	70¢	$8	0x81c5d7…
06-05 14:36:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0x966189…
06-05 14:36:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	49	69¢	$34	0x26d4c4…
06-05 07:35:09	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	74	3¢	$3	0xb7d44f…
06-05 07:35:09	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	224	3¢	$8	0x79d19f…
06-05 07:35:09	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	105	3¢	$4	0x45c6cb…
06-05 04:29:24	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	403	3¢	$14	0x78fed7…
06-04 20:50:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	210	49¢	$103	0x9a3c0f…
06-04 19:41:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	53¢	$23	0x2ede85…
06-04 19:41:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	53¢	$88	0x7b2672…
06-01 08:04:37	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x2afbdf…
06-01 08:02:36	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x5376a0…
06-01 08:00:35	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	128	86¢	$110	0x07a2db…
05-31 20:34:34	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	128	87¢	$111	0xad8170…
05-31 17:06:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xdb6567…
05-31 17:06:12	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	81	98¢	$79	0xd353dd…
05-31 17:06:10	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	19	98¢	$19	0x2fa29d…