Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
open
Total volume
$2,598
$238,203 in 24h
Trades
30
Unique wallets
28
Liquidity
$546,229
Latest YES mid
100¢
Latest NO mid
0¢
End date
2026-10-31
First seen
2026-05-04
last 05-05 20:44
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐟 Fish | 1 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 27 | $590 | $51 | +$539 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | $5 | $5 |
| unranked | 27 | $595 | $46 | +$549 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Made-Up-Beating-Sociology 0x70f3…2822 | No | +10,250 | $41 | $41 | 1 | 05-05 14:44 |
| Thankful-Alfalfa-Warlock 0x22f4…8eda | No | +1,250 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-04 22:54 |
| (anonymous) 0xf525…559d | No | +375 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-04 23:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xe152…586d | No | +375 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-04 23:14 |
| Majestic-Whole 0x92d0…4728 | No | +250 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-05 15:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x0740…1ad4 | No | +250 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-04 20:09 |
| Prudent-Spirituality 0x1270…f56b | Yes | +101 | $101 | $101 | 1 | 05-05 09:46 |
| Youthful-Pioneer 0x4873…b27a | Yes | +94 | $94 | $94 | 1 | 05-05 16:39 |
| Passionate-Clone 0xeac1…4e70 | Yes | +90 | $89 | $89 | 1 | 05-05 00:14 |
| Subtle-Worship 0x78a3…c2d4 | Yes | +89 | $89 | $89 | 1 | 05-05 00:05 |
| Understated-Coconut 0x7384…efc1 | Yes | +87 | $86 | $86 | 1 | 05-05 06:50 |
| Tan-Hammock 0x2669…946f | Yes | +81 | $81 | $81 | 1 | 05-05 16:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x06df…c6b7 | Yes | +21 | $21 | $21 | 1 | 05-05 02:35 |
| Hefty-Fishing 0x5baa…d95d | Yes | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 05-05 17:09 |
| Neat-Rap 0xfdb6…1976 | Yes | +9 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 05-04 20:09 |
| Lasting-Spool 0xb387…27b2 | Yes | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-05 07:26 |
| Willing-Bran 0x8b6d…01ae | Yes | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 05-05 20:44 |
| Nice-Halloween 0xd9c7…d7bb | Yes | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 05-05 06:55 |
| Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $9 | 3 | 05-05 20:44 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-05 20:44:56 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 100¢ | $4 | 0x4781b0… |
| 05-05 20:44:46 | Willing-Bran 0x8b6d…01ae | Yes | BUY | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0x1fedb9… |
| 05-05 19:34:18 | studmuffin6969 0xa8af…325e | Yes | SELL | 1,500 | 100¢ | $1,494 | 0x5acb8c… |
| 05-05 18:54:32 | Important-Fedelini 0x330e…cfa5 | Yes | SELL | 73 | 100¢ | $73 | 0x83244e… |
| 05-05 18:48:02 | Woeful-Archaeology 0xbae8…d54b | Yes | SELL | 87 | 100¢ | $86 | 0xfd12b9… |
| 05-05 18:41:04 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 100¢ | $3 | 0x3872eb… |
| 05-05 17:09:52 | Hefty-Fishing 0x5baa…d95d | Yes | BUY | 11 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xd1b9fb… |
| 05-05 16:54:38 | (anonymous) 0x65ac…c6c1 | Yes | SELL | 54 | 100¢ | $54 | 0xb2b38d… |
| 05-05 16:39:58 | Youthful-Pioneer 0x4873…b27a | Yes | BUY | 94 | 100¢ | $94 | 0x570896… |
| 05-05 16:34:46 | Tan-Hammock 0x2669…946f | Yes | BUY | 81 | 100¢ | $81 | 0xb8fc0f… |
| 05-05 15:24:30 | Majestic-Whole 0x92d0…4728 | No | BUY | 250 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x6e3206… |
| 05-05 14:44:48 | Made-Up-Beating-Sociology 0x70f3…2822 | No | BUY | 10,250 | 0¢ | $41 | 0x97822f… |
| 05-05 10:25:18 | Pesky-Kettle 0xe316…8e62 | Yes | SELL | 75 | 100¢ | $75 | 0xf373d9… |
| 05-05 09:46:16 | Prudent-Spirituality 0x1270…f56b | Yes | BUY | 101 | 100¢ | $101 | 0x032d26… |
| 05-05 07:45:18 | Negligible-Sled 0x9d83…8869 | Yes | SELL | 82 | 100¢ | $82 | 0xc076f5… |
| 05-05 07:26:04 | Lasting-Spool 0xb387…27b2 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 100¢ | $5 | 0x4ed911… |
| 05-05 07:06:02 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xc92cfd… |
| 05-05 06:55:04 | Nice-Halloween 0xd9c7…d7bb | Yes | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x7383a5… |
| 05-05 06:50:52 | Understated-Coconut 0x7384…efc1 | Yes | BUY | 87 | 100¢ | $86 | 0x954d5d… |
| 05-05 05:00:34 | Outstanding-Crow 0x9f9f…0dcd | Yes | SELL | 78 | 100¢ | $78 | 0x756673… |
| 05-05 02:35:18 | (anonymous) 0x06df…c6b7 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 100¢ | $21 | 0x22fcb3… |
| 05-05 00:14:50 | Passionate-Clone 0xeac1…4e70 | Yes | BUY | 90 | 100¢ | $89 | 0x9310d2… |
| 05-05 00:05:10 | Subtle-Worship 0x78a3…c2d4 | Yes | BUY | 89 | 100¢ | $89 | 0x6bcc42… |
| 05-04 23:14:58 | (anonymous) 0xf525…559d | No | BUY | 375 | 0¢ | $2 | 0x9b076f… |
| 05-04 23:14:56 | (anonymous) 0xe152…586d | No | BUY | 375 | 0¢ | $2 | 0x9471c5… |
| 05-04 23:14:54 | Old-Breath 0x00d2…fb50 | No | SELL | 500 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x674aa6… |
| 05-04 22:54:52 | Thankful-Alfalfa-Warlock 0x22f4…8eda | No | BUY | 1,250 | 0¢ | $5 | 0x78d16f… |
| 05-04 20:39:28 | Impressionable-Set 0xd6c2…a53d | Yes | SELL | 6 | 100¢ | $6 | 0x3d9c55… |
| 05-04 20:09:36 | Neat-Rap 0xfdb6…1976 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 100¢ | $9 | 0x2fc3ca… |
| 05-04 20:09:36 | (anonymous) 0x0740…1ad4 | No | BUY | 250 | 0¢ | $1 | 0x9127ec… |