Optimal-Miss 0x4a2be7…a9af20
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$13.8K
Unrealized P&L
-$830
Hit rate
84.6%
Resolved
12
Trades
18,527
lifetime
Volume
$2.66M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$144
Open exposure
$26.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-25
last 06-10 00:27
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
67% 44% +$16,956
Other
21% 33% $-3,109
Crypto
9% — —
Tech
2% — —
Sports
1% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 802 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No -6,000 $-3,990 84¢ $-5010 $-1,020 06-04 09:39
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +20,000 $3,200 18¢ $3.5K +$300 06-08 05:40
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No +7,984 $2,634 40¢ $3.2K +$520 06-09 20:09
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No +14,000 $2,380 20¢ $2.9K +$490 06-09 18:50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No -3,039 $-1,492 64¢ $-1930 $-438 06-03 10:15
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No +2,000 $860 66¢ $1.3K +$450 06-03 03:43
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No -1,988 $-1,372 63¢ $-1252 +$119 06-05 22:47
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes +8,000 $960 15¢ $1.2K +$200 06-04 21:01
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No +2,000 $1,120 56¢ $1.1K $-10 06-06 09:08
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No -1,000 $-629 76¢ $-755 $-126 06-09 20:13
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No -9,850 $-1,915 6¢ $-640 +$1,275 06-01 01:11
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No +6,000 $306 9¢ $558 +$252 06-04 19:40
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? No +536 $377 85¢ $456 +$79 06-09 19:48
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes +1,770 $444 24¢ $427 $-18 06-03 11:33
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +1,200 $531 34¢ $408 $-123 06-09 22:30
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +1,500 $890 24¢ $360 $-530 06-08 02:52
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? No -500 $-214 65¢ $-325 $-111 06-08 15:11
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? No +665 $120 40¢ $266 +$146 06-04 04:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes +10,000 $264 3¢ $260 $-4 06-05 02:41
Will Trump attend NATO Summit? No +1,400 $274 14¢ $198 $-76 06-08 17:32
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? No -298 $-146 60¢ $-177 $-31 06-03 11:54
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Yes -244 $-143 56¢ $-137 +$6 06-08 14:59
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +1,000 $140 13¢ $130 $-10 05-30 10:20
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No -439 $-149 25¢ $-110 +$40 06-01 18:50
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Yes +1,983 $119 4¢ $89 $-30 06-09 14:31
Clavicular sentenced to prison? Yes +555 $83 16¢ $89 +$6 06-10 06:21
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes -226 $-41 10¢ $-23 +$18 06-08 08:11
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? No +40 $8 31¢ $13 +$4 06-07 01:57
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No +6,999 $2,217 0¢ $7 $-2,210 06-06 00:07
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes +6 $3 75¢ $4 +$1 06-03 08:56