Optimal-Miss — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13.8K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.6%

Resolved

Trades

23,204

lifetime

Volume

$3.30M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$142

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 08-10 03:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Politics

65% 44% +$16,956

Other

23% 33% $-3,109

Crypto

7% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 378 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	320	$208.2K	2,276,547	2,260,585	+15,962	open	—	06-03 22:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	952	$119.4K	366,360	299,075	+67,285	open	—	05-29 17:08
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	642	$114.1K	1,317,343	1,139,367	+177,976	open	—	03-02 20:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	534	$101.2K	216,170	145,896	+70,274	open	—	04-22 15:53
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	327	$93.6K	122,708	119,708	+3,000	open	—	04-20 00:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	148	$86.9K	143,974	129,383	+14,591	open	—	06-17 13:30
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	475	$77.9K	104,775	103,923	+853	open	—	03-07 05:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	231	$54.9K	1,368,000	115,145	+1,252,854	open	—	04-09 18:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	267	$51.3K	90,961	88,152	+2,808	open	—	04-07 22:59
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	307	$51.2K	153,509	98,509	+55,000	open	—	04-21 23:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	368	$49.9K	136,000	96,000	+40,000	open	—	04-25 14:02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	184	$49.9K	97,153	58,153	+39,000	open	—	03-08 21:12
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	129	$46.2K	102,464	72,464	+30,000	open	—	04-08 15:22
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	136	$40.3K	52,504	33,560	+18,944	open	—	04-20 14:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	221	$38.7K	127,795	92,338	+35,457	open	—	06-26 14:29
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	38	$32.0K	28,000	29,000	-1,000	open	—	04-16 15:22
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	121	$31.8K	81,000	64,921	+16,079	open	—	02-28 03:05
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	316	$31.7K	127,968	85,968	+42,000	open	—	03-29 02:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	180	$31.0K	47,040	41,000	+6,040	open	—	06-23 09:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	205	$30.8K	113,000	81,713	+31,287	open	—	05-29 19:43
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	76	$30.3K	50,000	25,000	+25,000	open	—	04-12 21:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	126	$29.0K	101,966	85,905	+16,060	open	—	05-14 13:54
netanyahu out by march 31 854	36	$28.9K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	03-28 02:08
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	137	$28.8K	41,900	41,900	+0	open	—	02-28 18:54
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	149	$22.9K	37,021	41,554	-4,532	open	—	05-18 09:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	100	$22.2K	40,894	52,014	-11,120	open	—	06-17 11:59
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	59	$22.1K	68,000	18,000	+50,000	open	—	04-01 11:16
trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	48	$22.0K	16,086	16,086	+0	open	—	04-08 00:40
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	137	$20.6K	20,000	16,000	+4,000	open	—	07-07 12:25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	103	$20.2K	31,158	22,158	+9,000	open	—	05-30 13:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 07:23:45	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0x742ca7…
08-10 03:50:42	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xdb54bf…
08-10 03:07:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x48d9d9…
08-10 03:01:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x5b14e3…
08-10 02:47:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x3d5b3f…
08-10 02:43:40	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	BUY	49	31¢	$15	0x89ecbd…
08-10 02:24:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xcddad5…
08-10 02:24:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0x7a8e39…
08-10 02:22:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x8621e7…
08-10 02:04:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x196e23…
08-10 01:32:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x7593a2…
08-10 01:13:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x2c9ddd…
08-10 01:07:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0xa2d96f…
08-10 01:00:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	28	34¢	$9	0x8a6b02…
08-10 00:50:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	3,000	89¢	$2,670	0xec3c41…
08-10 00:45:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	500	34¢	$170	0x303db3…
08-10 00:43:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x290bf0…
08-10 00:40:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x48e4e8…
08-10 00:40:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0x0f8cc3…
08-10 00:34:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x46ece5…
08-10 00:20:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	11	95¢	$11	0x15232b…
08-10 00:19:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$39	0x59b906…
08-10 00:18:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x741894…
08-10 00:17:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$39	0xaf7ad1…
08-10 00:16:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$39	0x14ec0e…
08-10 00:15:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x98b0dd…
08-10 00:14:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$39	0xf4118d…
08-10 00:13:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0xfef9c5…
08-10 00:12:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x3dbdf8…
08-10 00:11:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0x18cdff…
08-10 00:10:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x220f0a…
08-10 00:09:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x5ab247…
08-10 00:08:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x1ed6c4…
08-10 00:07:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x116d76…
08-10 00:06:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x14d575…
08-10 00:05:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x391950…
08-10 00:04:19	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	132	95¢	$125	0x9f0031…
08-10 00:02:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0x297470…
08-09 23:49:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x4e80a1…
08-09 23:47:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	0	34¢	$0	0xe66426…
08-09 23:46:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x253e96…
08-09 23:40:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0x1a9bb1…
08-09 23:38:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0x3bde1b…
08-09 23:31:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x3b365c…
08-09 23:30:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$39	0x8c3c60…
08-09 23:29:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x36c10b…
08-09 23:28:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$39	0xe3637f…
08-09 23:27:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$39	0xd26fbd…
08-09 23:26:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0xa545f0…
08-09 23:22:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x4dddbe…
08-09 23:21:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x9ad168…
08-09 23:20:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x70d083…
08-09 23:19:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0x18ff0f…
08-09 23:18:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x4c78c2…
08-09 23:17:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xbf421c…
08-09 23:14:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xb17a1b…
08-09 23:13:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x7cc75c…
08-09 23:12:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0x9ce768…
08-09 23:11:15	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	BUY	1,000	34¢	$340	0xc54806…
08-09 23:11:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0x846b72…
08-09 23:10:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x3b7de4…
08-09 23:08:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	189	34¢	$64	0x8530f0…
08-09 23:07:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	41	95¢	$39	0x328a3a…
08-09 23:06:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0xf6c90e…
08-09 23:05:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x321ba0…
08-09 23:04:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xbc82f3…
08-09 23:03:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x1f2ea7…
08-09 23:02:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x7ce5a2…
08-09 23:01:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x6bbee9…
08-09 23:00:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x31efb2…
08-09 22:59:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x4e0ba1…
08-09 22:58:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xd32b18…
08-09 22:56:55	will openais astra model be released by august 31 2026 20260801214557731	No	BUY	400	68¢	$272	0x00af1a…
08-09 22:55:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	38	95¢	$36	0xf35f59…
08-09 22:54:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	39	95¢	$37	0xef77fe…
08-09 22:50:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	26	34¢	$9	0x50151b…
08-09 22:48:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	771	34¢	$262	0x269940…
08-09 22:42:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	46	34¢	$16	0x721b89…
08-09 22:42:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	797	34¢	$268	0x6c6c92…
08-09 19:54:54	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	BUY	39	50¢	$20	0x6fd82c…
08-09 13:52:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2,000	88¢	$1,760	0xc7d912…
08-09 13:45:42	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	BUY	2,443	50¢	$1,234	0xbbf706…
08-09 13:25:34	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	BUY	758	50¢	$377	0x6ac2ed…
08-09 13:25:34	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x01ee06…
08-09 13:21:40	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	31	63¢	$19	0x339de0…
08-09 10:25:00	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x96c298…
08-09 08:37:09	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	23	63¢	$14	0xee22cd…
08-09 08:17:13	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	153	63¢	$96	0xe6bf9d…
08-09 07:38:42	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x97c3db…
08-09 02:19:37	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	27	63¢	$17	0x0b4a74…
08-08 22:52:00	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	15	63¢	$10	0x7c0bdd…
08-08 22:51:33	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x8890de…
08-08 21:55:36	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0xf19af7…
08-08 21:17:10	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	500	63¢	$315	0x4b6fba…
08-08 14:06:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	630	45¢	$284	0x154171…
08-08 14:06:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	Yes	BUY	1,370	45¢	$616	0xc38e16…
08-08 14:02:04	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	27	63¢	$17	0x131392…
08-08 12:00:04	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by october 31	Yes	BUY	998	17¢	$170	0x184833…
08-08 01:53:49	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	1,186	63¢	$747	0x983d70…
08-07 16:31:01	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	BUY	2,000	43¢	$860	0x5e223e…