Recent-Icebreaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$125.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$14.2K

Hit rate

65.9%

Resolved

100

Trades

4,480

lifetime

Volume

$6.62M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.48K

Open exposure

$385.3K

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 11:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Other

61% 80% +$107,309

Politics

38% 75% +$3,470

Sports

1% 58% +$14,746

Crypto

0% 100% +$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 122 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+337,600	$299,200	94¢	$317.3K	+$18,144	10-25 22:04
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+32,500	$27,535	94¢	$30.7K	+$3,177	10-26 11:24
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+37,888	$17,544	36¢	$13.5K	-$4,093	10-25 23:24
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	+10,900	$7,748	68¢	$7.4K	-$375	10-26 11:27
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+36,900	$7,845	18¢	$6.7K	-$1,185	06-24 06:14
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+5,500	$2,927	57¢	$3.2K	+$235	09-24 18:27
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+4,800	$3,130	62¢	$3.0K	-$178	10-10 13:15
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+3,200	$2,181	72¢	$2.3K	+$107	09-19 10:08
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	+11,600	$3,012	12¢	$1.4K	-$1,620	09-11 18:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	239	$943.7K	504,700	504,700	+0	Yes	-$5,269	03-17 06:46
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	438	$916.7K	553,290	553,290	+0	open	—	10-05 15:40
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	242	$904.1K	714,600	377,000	+337,600	open	—	10-25 22:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	133	$378.5K	192,350	192,350	+0	Yes	+$2,422	04-26 06:04
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	207	$343.9K	214,190	138,000	+76,190	No	+$2,772	02-16 18:35
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	100	$315.2K	220,000	108,400	+111,600	No	+$12,267	03-31 08:31
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	149	$300.2K	266,898	51,333	+215,565	Yes	+$15,239	01-28 20:53
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	154	$256.6K	141,000	141,000	+0	open	—	09-11 18:52
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	85	$254.1K	208,090	54,690	+153,400	Yes	+$6,195	03-03 04:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	52	$183.5K	96,500	96,500	+0	No	+$8,713	06-25 20:07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	161	$160.8K	53,000	115,000	-62,000	Yes	-$1,607	06-11 13:26
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	17	$136.9K	73,000	73,000	+0	open	—	10-23 13:19
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	39	$129.7K	153,000	0	+153,000	No	+$23,264	09-15 14:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	19	$118.8K	165,000	1,005	+163,995	Yes	+$46,969	09-16 16:44
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	95	$100.9K	52,300	52,300	+0	Yes	+$2,193	05-01 18:41
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	44	$94.3K	60,350	60,350	+0	No	-$4,127	10-25 21:27
Trump out as President by June 30?	11	$76.6K	0	79,000	-79,000	No	-$2,402	05-02 05:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	22	$74.7K	38,280	38,280	+0	Yes	-$786	04-06 16:29
Iran leadership change by March 13?	34	$56.6K	30,000	30,000	+0	No	+$1,359	03-14 08:26
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	58	$45.3K	37,600	10,600	+27,000	No	+$2,386	08-26 01:29
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	25	$42.6K	22,600	22,600	-0	No	+$57	03-14 10:38
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	39	$41.0K	38,080	4,580	+33,500	No	+$1,635	06-14 10:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	21	$35.2K	35,000	3,340	+31,660	No	+$2,995	05-31 19:23
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$34.0K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	-$1,200	03-15 10:39
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	27	$33.0K	17,000	17,000	+0	No	+$741	06-21 18:49
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	42	$32.8K	19,749	19,900	-151	No	+$4,703	01-30 03:39
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	38	$32.2K	35,000	2,500	+32,500	open	—	10-26 11:24
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	50	$31.5K	32,620	2,980	+29,640	Yes	+$4,099	05-13 14:10
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	73	$30.1K	44,800	65,800	-21,000	No	+$13,800	06-06 10:52
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	10	$28.1K	14,725	14,725	+0	Yes	+$703	03-08 22:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 11:27:20	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	66¢	$397	0xa99083…
10-26 11:26:39	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,000	66¢	$1,983	0x931d04…
10-26 11:25:57	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	66¢	$198	0x386eb5…
10-26 11:24:48	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	2,500	93¢	$2,325	0x07aaa1…
10-25 23:24:23	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	572	39¢	$223	0x0838ca…
10-25 22:04:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x23447f…
10-25 22:02:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	460	94¢	$432	0x56847d…
10-25 22:01:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50,040	94¢	$47,038	0x1f2482…
10-25 21:40:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25,600	95¢	$24,320	0xe05117…
10-25 21:27:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	6,261	66¢	$4,109	0xe2cd58…
10-25 21:25:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	414	67¢	$276	0x71a840…
10-25 21:25:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	164	67¢	$109	0x49b21e…
10-25 21:25:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	135	67¢	$90	0x456134…
10-25 21:24:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	25	67¢	$17	0x6f6b0b…
10-25 21:24:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	6,052	66¢	$4,025	0xac2ade…
10-25 21:24:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	72	66¢	$48	0xa7de39…
10-25 21:24:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	879	66¢	$585	0xfcd204…
10-25 21:16:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,046	68¢	$1,383	0xfc833c…
10-25 21:13:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,954	68¢	$1,997	0x1fd88a…
10-25 21:06:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	545	68¢	$368	0xe62275…
10-25 21:06:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	240	68¢	$162	0xfff0ea…
10-25 21:06:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,155	68¢	$779	0x0a846b…
10-25 21:05:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	752	68¢	$507	0xbe4a31…
10-25 21:05:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	71	67¢	$48	0x9a4326…
10-25 21:05:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	68¢	$20	0xca3308…
10-25 21:05:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	163	67¢	$110	0x810da5…
10-25 21:05:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	225	68¢	$152	0x00cf7b…
10-25 21:05:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,820	68¢	$1,228	0xb221ca…
10-25 20:59:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	6,660	66¢	$4,429	0xd63da7…
10-25 20:33:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	643	66¢	$425	0xf20286…
10-25 16:33:57	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	395	69¢	$271	0xd0c5bd…
10-25 16:33:23	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x06fffc…
10-25 16:24:50	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	491	69¢	$337	0x42f653…
10-25 16:22:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xc69ade…
10-25 16:18:21	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0xf443ed…
10-25 16:12:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	52	81¢	$42	0xe94b68…
10-25 16:12:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5,850	81¢	$4,738	0x8911e2…
10-25 16:11:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	58	81¢	$47	0xc51691…
10-25 16:11:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	27	81¢	$22	0xedefe1…
10-25 08:10:26	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	69¢	$69	0xf46d1c…
10-25 04:06:08	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	70¢	$63	0x46ddbf…
10-25 03:42:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5,000	80¢	$3,985	0xa98579…
10-25 03:27:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	18,900	80¢	$15,063	0x0cdb5c…
10-25 03:23:05	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xdaa372…
10-24 22:15:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	17,563	84¢	$14,683	0x3e54e7…
10-24 22:15:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x230d74…
10-24 22:15:02	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0xfc193e…
10-24 22:15:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0xc22ef2…
10-24 22:14:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x00d3cf…
10-24 21:13:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	6,089	84¢	$5,090	0xc81047…
10-24 12:31:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50,000	94¢	$47,000	0x3579c9…
10-23 13:20:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	31,400	93¢	$29,202	0x54b260…
10-23 13:19:03	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	31,000	94¢	$29,140	0x7b3697…
10-23 12:26:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,100	91¢	$4,641	0xe4896b…
10-23 12:25:50	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	94¢	$1,880	0x639c68…
10-23 12:25:39	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	94¢	$940	0xadb47e…
10-23 12:25:26	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	94¢	$1,880	0x8a5f3e…
10-22 05:10:18	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x99f565…
10-20 18:55:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	900	86¢	$774	0x18b17a…
10-20 18:55:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14,500	86¢	$12,470	0x52c11e…
10-20 18:54:27	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	14,000	95¢	$13,300	0x5caf81…
10-20 14:18:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x9a70c6…
10-19 13:58:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	96	86¢	$82	0x19e1c5…
10-19 13:57:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	75,796	86¢	$65,184	0xaaad19…
10-19 12:41:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	273	87¢	$238	0xbd8b7d…
10-19 10:04:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xb0fe3d…
10-19 09:58:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x07a56e…
10-19 09:45:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xadff88…
10-19 09:43:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x18975d…
10-19 09:35:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	87¢	$28	0xa1237b…
10-19 09:04:44	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	94	87¢	$82	0x609886…
10-19 09:03:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xb1e887…
10-19 08:50:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	64	87¢	$55	0x22acb4…
10-19 08:39:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	87¢	$4	0xb851e5…
10-19 07:58:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	140	87¢	$122	0xcd6c46…
10-19 07:38:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0x25e276…
10-19 07:36:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x59a3aa…
10-19 07:30:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x3c6e77…
10-19 07:27:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x138508…
10-19 07:21:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	87¢	$14	0x35d836…
10-19 07:17:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xf6ddd1…
10-19 07:03:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xf3ec83…
10-19 06:28:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x026133…
10-19 06:26:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	87¢	$24	0x11fdc7…
10-19 06:25:18	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x864253…
10-19 05:51:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	87¢	$3	0x3457ad…
10-19 05:49:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6,883	87¢	$5,989	0x86cea8…
10-19 05:49:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	87¢	$3	0x5e9afd…
10-19 05:45:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	400	87¢	$348	0x95e40c…
10-19 05:34:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	37	87¢	$32	0x7287b9…
10-19 05:25:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x74f1d7…
10-19 04:12:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	87¢	$3	0x511a95…
10-19 03:56:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x4eceed…
10-19 03:54:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	75,000	87¢	$65,250	0x803ace…
10-19 03:46:53	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x3d9518…
10-19 03:41:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	190	87¢	$165	0xd797ba…
10-18 22:23:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	40,000	87¢	$34,800	0x4fbb47…
10-18 22:22:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	54,900	87¢	$47,763	0x6d2fb0…
10-16 03:50:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	70	79¢	$55	0xc3a268…
10-16 03:49:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xf3abf1…