Recent-Icebreaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.29K

Unrealized P&L

+$871

Hit rate

99.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,962

lifetime

Volume

$3.74M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.26K

Open exposure

$189.0K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-01 03:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

64% 50% +$2,294

Politics

36% — —

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 112 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+138,646	$123,975	90¢	$124.1K	+$113	07-01 03:24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+57,000	$48,939	86¢	$49.3K	+$366	07-01 03:25
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+17,000	$14,460	86¢	$14.7K	+$245	06-25 13:49
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	+700	$486	84¢	$588	+$102	06-23 15:47
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	+827	$302	42¢	$347	+$46	06-28 17:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	239	$943.7K	504,700	504,700	+0	open	—	03-17 06:46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	133	$378.5K	192,350	192,350	+0	open	—	04-26 06:04
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	207	$343.9K	214,190	138,000	+76,190	open	—	02-16 18:35
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	100	$315.2K	220,000	108,400	+111,600	open	—	03-31 08:31
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	149	$300.2K	266,898	51,333	+215,565	open	—	01-28 20:53
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	85	$254.1K	208,090	54,690	+153,400	open	—	03-03 04:09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	224	$129.5K	103,290	46,290	+57,000	open	—	07-01 03:25
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	111	$124.3K	139,000	0	+139,000	open	—	07-01 03:24
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	43	$118.7K	24,200	96,500	-72,300	open	—	06-25 20:07
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	22	$74.7K	38,280	38,280	+0	open	—	04-06 16:29
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	42	$60.3K	52,300	11,400	+40,900	Yes	+$2,494	04-27 05:35
Iran leadership change by March 13?	34	$56.6K	30,000	30,000	+0	open	—	03-14 08:26
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	25	$42.6K	22,600	22,600	-0	open	—	03-14 10:38
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	38	$40.9K	37,990	4,580	+33,410	open	—	06-14 10:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	21	$35.2K	35,000	3,340	+31,660	open	—	05-31 19:23
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$34.0K	20,000	20,000	+0	open	—	03-15 10:39
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	42	$32.8K	19,749	19,900	-151	open	—	01-30 03:39
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	50	$31.5K	32,620	2,980	+29,640	open	—	05-13 14:10
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	10	$28.1K	14,725	14,725	+0	open	—	03-08 22:23
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	36	$26.2K	18,000	13,000	+5,000	open	—	03-29 19:19
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	47	$21.1K	26,700	26,700	+0	open	—	03-18 04:03
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	3	$19.8K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	03-14 14:15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	36	$17.6K	11,400	11,400	+0	open	—	04-09 05:31
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	21	$16.9K	14,600	5,500	+9,100	open	—	03-30 06:59
will uae strike iran by march 31	28	$16.7K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-22 10:40
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	18	$16.2K	9,800	9,800	+0	open	—	01-14 21:26
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	19	$16.1K	16,713	0	+16,713	open	—	02-09 18:31
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	18	$15.0K	11,000	10,990	+10	open	—	03-10 20:38
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	6	$14.5K	0	14,600	-14,600	open	—	06-21 18:49
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	28	$14.5K	17,000	0	+17,000	open	—	06-25 13:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 03:25:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3,290	86¢	$2,829	0xfd9e3d…
07-01 03:24:32	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0x2852af…
06-30 15:58:41	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	86¢	$1,720	0x8db623…
06-30 15:58:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	86¢	$1,720	0x1e9cd5…
06-30 15:24:35	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	86¢	$860	0x2ddb30…
06-30 15:24:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	990	86¢	$851	0xae43e0…
06-30 13:42:44	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,100	86¢	$946	0xac483e…
06-30 13:42:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,100	86¢	$946	0x720c73…
06-30 13:39:10	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,190	86¢	$4,463	0x239254…
06-30 13:38:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5,200	86¢	$4,472	0x827557…
06-30 13:36:22	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x1363c4…
06-29 06:06:29	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	60	94¢	$56	0x32620a…
06-28 17:20:22	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x91b929…
06-28 08:32:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	700	86¢	$602	0x74adfd…
06-28 07:59:44	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	87¢	$435	0x939d82…
06-27 20:38:38	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	87¢	$435	0x77c919…
06-27 10:12:59	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	88¢	$880	0xef83cd…
06-27 06:26:25	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6,000	87¢	$5,220	0xd00545…
06-27 06:25:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7,000	87¢	$6,090	0x5e2b66…
06-27 06:25:19	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	87¢	$4,350	0xe2268d…
06-27 06:24:23	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,500	87¢	$4,785	0xd778f6…
06-27 06:21:04	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	87¢	$435	0x29cc43…
06-27 06:19:59	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9,729	87¢	$8,464	0x500a25…
06-27 06:19:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10,000	87¢	$8,700	0x80d8f3…
06-27 06:18:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	10,000	87¢	$8,700	0x679367…
06-27 06:16:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	271	86¢	$233	0x18582a…
06-27 06:00:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	287	88¢	$253	0x176339…
06-27 05:06:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	284	88¢	$250	0xeec057…
06-27 04:07:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	88¢	$880	0x59b4af…
06-27 03:48:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	47	88¢	$41	0x21b405…
06-27 02:22:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	139	88¢	$122	0x07f799…
06-27 00:51:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x936c08…
06-26 23:14:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0x23c147…
06-26 22:29:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	11	88¢	$9	0x56071e…
06-26 21:29:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x9a0b89…
06-26 21:11:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	556	88¢	$489	0xef2e8c…
06-26 20:56:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	31	88¢	$28	0x66b2c6…
06-26 19:30:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	186	88¢	$163	0x63317b…
06-26 19:21:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0xd86f50…
06-26 18:29:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	500	88¢	$440	0xba770f…
06-26 18:25:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0x6088e5…
06-26 17:47:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	38	88¢	$34	0xe2bdd2…
06-26 16:50:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	42	88¢	$37	0x365493…
06-26 16:34:08	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	88¢	$4,400	0x562663…
06-26 16:25:02	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	30	88¢	$26	0x6d4669…
06-26 16:00:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5,000	88¢	$4,400	0xaaaaae…
06-26 15:41:47	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,000	87¢	$2,610	0x371d20…
06-26 15:39:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	769	88¢	$677	0xa65a58…
06-26 15:39:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,999	88¢	$1,759	0x39d257…
06-26 15:33:02	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xf9f2c0…
06-26 12:41:38	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	88¢	$1,760	0x383f6d…
06-26 12:34:14	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	88¢	$880	0xa79483…
06-26 04:40:11	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x02dc93…
06-25 23:51:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11,000	90¢	$9,900	0x7b511f…
06-25 20:07:26	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	427	100¢	$426	0xefa2d6…
06-25 20:05:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	2,500	100¢	$2,490	0x644740…
06-25 20:04:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1,679	100¢	$1,672	0x4c646f…
06-25 20:04:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	420	96¢	$402	0xb8c43b…
06-25 20:04:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	580	96¢	$555	0x325c75…
06-25 20:02:46	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1,396	100¢	$1,391	0x425791…
06-25 20:00:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	2,431	100¢	$2,421	0x241eb1…
06-25 19:59:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x70b7ca…
06-25 19:59:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1,468	100¢	$1,462	0x3a2648…
06-25 19:59:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	63	100¢	$62	0x0dc1c6…
06-25 19:09:56	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xc6556a…
06-25 19:03:58	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x9773fa…
06-25 16:13:31	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x07b520…
06-25 16:11:46	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x92217b…
06-25 16:11:17	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xdd3368…
06-25 15:38:41	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xa0ee3b…
06-25 13:51:55	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	91¢	$9,100	0x3afa2a…
06-25 13:49:46	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	41	87¢	$36	0xfa523d…
06-25 13:48:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0xb4c3b3…
06-25 13:35:55	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	4,487	86¢	$3,859	0x2022a4…
06-25 13:03:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x08583f…
06-25 12:53:56	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16,620	91¢	$15,124	0xeba272…
06-25 12:42:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x7320af…
06-25 12:35:44	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x225c15…
06-25 12:32:38	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xa50e93…
06-25 12:24:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	121	86¢	$104	0x62024d…
06-25 11:20:28	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	4	86¢	$4	0xc59de4…
06-25 10:54:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x72e301…
06-25 10:34:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x1e848d…
06-25 10:31:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x94904d…
06-25 10:08:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x1043bf…
06-25 10:04:46	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9,347	91¢	$8,506	0x34c704…
06-25 09:55:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0xf66ab1…
06-25 09:52:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x1c901f…
06-25 09:52:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0xe8e234…
06-25 09:34:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x3e3fa3…
06-25 09:24:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$959	0xc2abc5…
06-25 09:10:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	4,100	96¢	$3,932	0x815f5f…
06-25 09:08:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x662655…
06-25 09:08:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$958	0x6ebae8…
06-25 09:08:20	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	4,700	96¢	$4,500	0x406a97…
06-25 08:44:35	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xe70dfa…
06-25 08:22:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x6a34f4…
06-25 08:21:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0xd97526…
06-25 08:20:07	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	91¢	$4,550	0x272368…
06-25 08:18:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x112554…