Recent-Icebreaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.29K

Unrealized P&L

-$5.90K

Hit rate

99.7%

Resolved

Trades

3,070

lifetime

Volume

$3.81M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.24K

Open exposure

$167.6K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 06:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

64% 50% +$2,294

Politics

36% — —

Sports

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 112 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+117,646	$104,845	92¢	$107.6K	+$2,801	07-20 19:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+59,000	$50,548	70¢	$41.6K	$-8,953	07-19 13:36
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+19,000	$16,180	86¢	$16.4K	+$255	07-21 06:33
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	+2,100	$1,437	66¢	$1.4K	$-40	07-20 07:56
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	+1,390	$494	38¢	$528	+$34	07-17 06:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	239	$943.7K	504,700	504,700	+0	open	—	03-17 06:46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	133	$378.5K	192,350	192,350	+0	open	—	04-26 06:04
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	207	$343.9K	214,190	138,000	+76,190	open	—	02-16 18:35
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	100	$315.2K	220,000	108,400	+111,600	open	—	03-31 08:31
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	149	$300.2K	266,898	51,333	+215,565	open	—	01-28 20:53
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	85	$254.1K	208,090	54,690	+153,400	open	—	03-03 04:09
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	140	$147.0K	141,000	23,000	+118,000	open	—	07-20 19:55
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	231	$131.1K	105,290	46,290	+59,000	open	—	07-19 13:36
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	43	$118.7K	24,200	96,500	-72,300	open	—	06-25 20:07
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	22	$74.7K	38,280	38,280	+0	open	—	04-06 16:29
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	42	$60.3K	52,300	11,400	+40,900	Yes	+$2,494	04-27 05:35
Iran leadership change by March 13?	34	$56.6K	30,000	30,000	+0	open	—	03-14 08:26
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	25	$42.6K	22,600	22,600	-0	open	—	03-14 10:38
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	38	$40.9K	37,990	4,580	+33,410	open	—	06-14 10:32
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	47	$38.8K	30,600	10,600	+20,000	open	—	07-20 07:56
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	21	$35.2K	35,000	3,340	+31,660	open	—	05-31 19:23
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$34.0K	20,000	20,000	+0	open	—	03-15 10:39
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	42	$32.8K	19,749	19,900	-151	open	—	01-30 03:39
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	50	$31.5K	32,620	2,980	+29,640	open	—	05-13 14:10
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	10	$28.1K	14,725	14,725	+0	open	—	03-08 22:23
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	36	$26.2K	18,000	13,000	+5,000	open	—	03-29 19:19
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	47	$21.1K	26,700	26,700	+0	open	—	03-18 04:03
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	3	$19.8K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	03-14 14:15
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	36	$17.6K	11,400	11,400	+0	open	—	04-09 05:31
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	21	$16.9K	14,600	5,500	+9,100	open	—	03-30 06:59
will uae strike iran by march 31	28	$16.7K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-22 10:40
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	18	$16.2K	9,800	9,800	+0	open	—	01-14 21:26
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	30	$16.2K	19,000	0	+19,000	open	—	07-21 06:33
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	19	$16.1K	16,713	0	+16,713	open	—	02-09 18:31
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	18	$15.0K	11,000	10,990	+10	open	—	03-10 20:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 06:33:43	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	1,000	86¢	$860	0xc21018…
07-20 19:55:45	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	1,000	86¢	$860	0xbc830c…
07-20 19:55:25	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0x72abcd…
07-20 07:56:45	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xb3811e…
07-20 07:56:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	4,900	91¢	$4,468	0x68c9ad…
07-19 16:35:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xe925ea…
07-19 14:49:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	500	90¢	$450	0xf51c7c…
07-19 14:08:48	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0xa7a378…
07-19 13:42:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x631b61…
07-19 13:36:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x99061d…
07-19 13:33:45	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	290	90¢	$260	0x0a9bc2…
07-19 13:31:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xea33b8…
07-19 09:28:30	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	300	90¢	$269	0xc9eefe…
07-19 07:39:21	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	400	90¢	$358	0x71e44b…
07-19 07:39:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,000	89¢	$895	0x3ef6e2…
07-19 07:27:15	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2,000	89¢	$1,790	0x2ff4f8…
07-19 07:26:24	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	500	89¢	$447	0xea2ce8…
07-18 20:16:24	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	900	90¢	$808	0x249a72…
07-18 19:31:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0x564a52…
07-18 19:30:54	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	600	90¢	$538	0x6e9293…
07-18 15:04:16	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	BUY	1,300	68¢	$884	0xb9e6fb…
07-18 13:17:34	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6,467	91¢	$5,885	0xbdffbe…
07-18 10:15:27	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	111	91¢	$101	0xd39b72…
07-18 10:00:18	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$15	0x9ad491…
07-18 08:10:00	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x47c28a…
07-18 07:57:39	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0x454e94…
07-18 06:48:42	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	91¢	$8	0x7bc0f5…
07-18 02:40:03	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x66bcb6…
07-18 02:35:22	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0xa58c4b…
07-17 22:47:45	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	91¢	$26	0x9cc3a4…
07-17 22:33:15	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,100	91¢	$1,001	0xa4a77c…
07-17 21:18:36	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	549	91¢	$500	0xf7232b…
07-17 21:04:04	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x853eb2…
07-17 20:58:58	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	91¢	$7	0x9d21b3…
07-17 20:12:30	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	91¢	$17	0x9e736e…
07-17 19:31:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$14	0x8d8e27…
07-17 19:15:06	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	91¢	$23	0x9c9ecc…
07-17 18:57:37	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0xd84527…
07-17 18:52:03	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0xa21aab…
07-17 17:58:03	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	361	91¢	$328	0x8d3714…
07-17 06:33:34	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x7b5d90…
07-17 06:26:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,700	93¢	$1,586	0xbe7fce…
07-17 06:07:27	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	500	93¢	$466	0x445d56…
07-17 03:28:07	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,000	91¢	$2,730	0x8b04dc…
07-16 16:32:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	80	93¢	$74	0x93f4a4…
07-16 16:32:05	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0xcaaffc…
07-16 08:52:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	80	76¢	$61	0x3d03e8…
07-16 08:51:58	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0xfba29c…
07-16 08:43:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	700	76¢	$532	0x6cb85b…
07-16 08:43:08	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	90¢	$900	0x270b7a…
07-15 21:41:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x8b1c30…
07-15 21:34:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	625	90¢	$562	0x8479f4…
07-15 21:32:17	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	35	90¢	$32	0xdcd67a…
07-15 21:31:44	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x6d2aa0…
07-15 21:10:29	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x6abee5…
07-15 07:30:44	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	225	35¢	$79	0x92497b…
07-14 17:45:22	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,000	94¢	$942	0x9d9947…
07-13 19:01:20	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x65a15e…
07-13 18:33:46	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	65	96¢	$62	0xa057bb…
07-13 18:32:25	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	35	96¢	$33	0x4c1c73…
07-11 06:16:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	2,600	97¢	$2,512	0xe18257…
07-09 17:15:08	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xb2a249…
07-09 17:13:53	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	700	91¢	$640	0xcf4af2…
07-09 17:13:26	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0x47a3cb…
07-09 14:52:05	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	1,000	94¢	$937	0xecd201…
07-09 14:51:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	91¢	$910	0x598347…
07-09 10:30:35	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	300	94¢	$283	0x0982a1…
07-09 04:27:31	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$946	0x3a15a9…
07-08 18:10:01	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	600	94¢	$564	0x53db8b…
07-08 18:09:44	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	600	94¢	$564	0xc0672f…
07-08 18:09:34	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	601	94¢	$565	0x850c1f…
07-08 18:09:17	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	799	94¢	$751	0x7dc13d…
07-08 18:08:58	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4,000	91¢	$3,640	0xa6e31a…
07-08 14:25:07	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	700	94¢	$661	0xe3c413…
07-08 14:24:05	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	400	94¢	$377	0xaf4796…
07-08 14:23:40	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	90¢	$900	0x3bbeef…
07-08 14:20:22	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	900	94¢	$848	0x9fcb55…
07-08 14:18:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2,600	91¢	$2,379	0x3420c2…
07-08 12:02:59	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x76e518…
07-08 12:01:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xaff890…
07-08 12:01:41	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	700	85¢	$595	0xd5fcf8…
07-07 13:51:13	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x0d800d…
07-07 13:49:19	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x9b8164…
07-07 13:45:40	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x1dd9cd…
07-07 13:45:32	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa92cca…
07-06 20:06:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1,580	99¢	$1,558	0xecbcfd…
07-06 12:58:19	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0xad61e7…
07-06 10:42:35	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	420	99¢	$414	0x20bab9…
07-06 06:10:17	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	400	98¢	$394	0xbf030a…
07-06 06:10:17	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	400	98¢	$394	0xb2214c…
07-05 22:55:34	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	3,000	78¢	$2,340	0x8ef3d6…
07-05 14:17:04	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	2,500	80¢	$2,000	0xfa2b70…
07-05 11:25:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	2,000	98¢	$1,958	0xd88bf4…
07-04 10:19:22	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1,991	98¢	$1,947	0x8b4341…
07-04 07:13:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9e457b…
07-04 07:13:16	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x67356f…
07-04 07:13:11	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xa2a3bc…
07-04 07:13:04	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd5af3a…
07-04 07:13:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x911b82…
07-04 07:12:53	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xf2089a…