Serious-Shoemaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.25K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,201

lifetime

Volume

$695.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$579

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 07-30 07:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

47% — —

Other

43% 100% +$1,250

Crypto

9% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 110 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	241	$70.2K	1,035,368	35,828	+999,540	open	—	04-01 10:53
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$69.8K	70,000	0	+70,000	open	—	04-29 21:29
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$62.5K	31,779	31,779	+0	open	—	03-27 19:59
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$48.1K	48,500	0	+48,500	open	—	06-02 19:53
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$39.8K	40,000	0	+40,000	Yes	+$160	05-03 07:47
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	110	$38.6K	0	40,160	-40,160	open	—	07-01 19:38
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	77	$32.7K	118,123	18,123	+100,000	open	—	04-01 07:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	21	$32.5K	39,066	0	+39,066	open	—	06-15 01:48
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	69	$32.4K	45,491	45,491	+0	open	—	03-31 15:12
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	24	$19.9K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-30 04:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	117	$19.2K	11,035	11,157	-122	open	—	06-21 11:39
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	30	$19.2K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	04-01 12:42
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	45	$18.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	+$1,090	03-17 02:16
will the us invade iran by march 31	17	$17.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-28 17:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$17.1K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-23 11:18
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	13	$15.1K	15,239	0	+15,239	open	—	03-24 03:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	26	$14.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	07-30 07:53
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	6	$14.5K	24,602	0	+24,602	open	—	03-24 22:02
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$11.4K	0	11,477	-11,476	open	—	06-25 20:38
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	8	$9.4K	0	10,000	-10,000	open	—	07-12 14:02
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	1	$9.4K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	07-26 08:30
iran leadership change by march 31	34	$6.8K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	03-23 03:17
will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	1	$5.5K	5,483	0	+5,483	open	—	06-18 00:02
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	9	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	06-27 14:12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	1	$4.5K	0	5,000	-5,000	open	—	07-12 07:53
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	12	$4.2K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	06-08 03:09
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	4	$4.1K	4,376	0	+4,376	open	—	06-14 01:08
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	1	$3.8K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	06-11 00:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	27	$3.1K	11,519	6,000	+5,519	open	—	06-12 18:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	6	$2.9K	3,597	0	+3,597	open	—	06-15 00:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-30 07:53:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	6,289	74¢	$4,654	0x382fb5…
07-30 07:52:29	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xaeb6fc…
07-30 07:49:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	135	74¢	$100	0xeda857…
07-30 07:49:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	135	74¢	$100	0xee5a7f…
07-30 07:48:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	135	74¢	$100	0x18de53…
07-30 07:48:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	135	74¢	$100	0x0c697f…
07-30 07:48:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	135	74¢	$100	0x100497…
07-30 07:48:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	107	74¢	$79	0x919241…
07-30 07:48:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xa43132…
07-30 07:48:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	135	74¢	$100	0x61a074…
07-30 07:48:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x4e3a2a…
07-30 07:48:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	27	74¢	$20	0xd53192…
07-30 07:48:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x738322…
07-30 07:48:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	513	74¢	$379	0x7135ba…
07-30 07:48:24	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	68	74¢	$50	0x09664f…
07-30 07:48:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0xf8094d…
07-30 07:48:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0xed9dbf…
07-30 07:48:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	105	74¢	$77	0xcec955…
07-30 07:48:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0xb3a851…
07-30 07:48:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x746781…
07-30 07:48:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,021	74¢	$1,495	0x47cabb…
07-27 18:08:04	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	SELL	4,162	5¢	$221	0xb73a24…
07-26 20:53:16	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	4,162	57¢	$2,372	0xcc7986…
07-26 08:30:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	10,000	94¢	$9,389	0x8cb3ac…
07-25 18:57:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	9,337	74¢	$6,909	0x985067…
07-25 18:56:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	22	74¢	$16	0xc4590b…
07-25 18:50:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	88	74¢	$65	0xf498c1…
07-25 18:41:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0x1a34b6…
07-25 18:41:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	553	74¢	$409	0x62762c…
07-24 09:12:19	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	23¢	$2,280	0xfcc3c5…
07-24 04:57:24	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	Yes	BUY	4,462	2¢	$97	0x81b315…
07-24 04:56:36	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	Yes	BUY	6,230	1¢	$69	0xc20fb3…
07-21 19:17:46	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	SELL	455	24¢	$109	0xf47be5…
07-17 08:27:42	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	SELL	107	14¢	$15	0x14b510…
07-17 08:23:49	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	SELL	268	14¢	$38	0xa38ebc…
07-17 08:15:43	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	SELL	164	14¢	$23	0xe72e8d…
07-17 05:47:36	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	SELL	73	14¢	$10	0xb46c9e…
07-17 05:47:36	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	SELL	58	14¢	$8	0x3a9639…
07-17 02:02:37	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0x14510b…
07-17 01:28:48	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	SELL	695	15¢	$106	0x27b177…
07-17 01:27:14	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xcc6cd7…
07-17 00:38:52	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	Yes	BUY	310	59¢	$183	0x77936e…
07-17 00:17:52	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	BUY	2,000	22¢	$440	0x76f4bf…
07-16 23:41:52	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	Yes	BUY	90	59¢	$53	0xf81f90…
07-16 23:41:13	will trump say communist during speech to the nation 20260713200621426	Yes	BUY	197	55¢	$109	0xa99546…
07-16 23:40:25	will trump say fraud or fraudulent during speech to the nation 20260714024751793	Yes	BUY	1,000	62¢	$622	0xdca2d4…
07-16 23:37:43	will trump say fentanyl during speech to the nation 20260713200621439	Yes	BUY	700	14¢	$98	0x2983b1…
07-12 14:02:14	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	8,854	94¢	$8,322	0x08a542…
07-12 13:46:25	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x70f610…
07-12 13:16:20	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x911ab7…
07-12 12:46:26	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x64f27d…
07-12 12:16:31	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x0bc3da…
07-12 12:01:07	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0xa65d45…
07-12 11:46:23	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x882265…
07-12 11:25:44	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	132	94¢	$125	0x351161…
07-12 07:53:02	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	5,000	91¢	$4,550	0x83b10f…
07-09 10:19:32	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	91¢	$1,820	0xbb2801…
07-01 19:38:46	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	2,776	96¢	$2,673	0x609497…
07-01 19:15:01	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	69	96¢	$66	0x666290…
07-01 17:54:14	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0x5aa3d9…
07-01 17:34:14	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xbc03d9…
07-01 17:22:53	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	34	96¢	$33	0x1a7135…
07-01 16:10:44	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	60	96¢	$57	0x436938…
07-01 15:44:31	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	3,366	96¢	$3,242	0x54686c…
07-01 15:39:52	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	57	96¢	$55	0x064d33…
07-01 14:28:10	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	114	96¢	$109	0xa6a0df…
07-01 14:02:04	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	57	96¢	$55	0xe51354…
07-01 13:50:56	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	235	96¢	$227	0x923a9a…
07-01 13:29:19	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$11	0xb3f838…
07-01 12:32:10	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	239	96¢	$230	0x5e1a6e…
07-01 12:30:49	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	325	96¢	$313	0x4a6082…
07-01 12:24:16	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	412	96¢	$397	0x206e31…
07-01 11:04:28	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	357	96¢	$344	0xd45144…
07-01 11:03:53	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	11	96¢	$10	0x98f3cd…
07-01 10:25:04	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	893	96¢	$860	0xb73e7c…
07-01 10:08:44	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	202	96¢	$195	0xd5a6ed…
07-01 09:25:20	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xcfa7a6…
07-01 09:05:41	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	319	96¢	$307	0x10c777…
07-01 08:41:32	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	111	96¢	$107	0xab9a4a…
07-01 07:43:28	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0x6f20f9…
07-01 07:41:50	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	975	96¢	$939	0x6f78d6…
06-27 23:07:04	world cup goals h2h messi vspt ronaldo 20260604005506837	Messi	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0xfa5c99…
06-27 22:08:20	world cup goals h2h messi vspt ronaldo 20260604005506837	Messi	BUY	161	92¢	$149	0x11dae8…
06-27 14:14:26	Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1,498	100¢	$1,490	0x4cbfbc…
06-27 14:13:11	Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1,661	100¢	$1,653	0x505880…
06-27 14:12:53	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	355	99¢	$352	0xf47ae6…
06-27 14:11:17	Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	440	100¢	$438	0x1db304…
06-27 14:11:11	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	227	99¢	$225	0x7dadd0…
06-27 14:04:23	Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	286	100¢	$285	0x099695…
06-27 13:50:38	Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$112	0x23d989…
06-27 13:50:22	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	207	99¢	$205	0xa3407c…
06-27 09:41:07	world cup goals h2h messi vspt ronaldo 20260604005506837	Messi	BUY	36	92¢	$33	0x049312…
06-26 12:12:58	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa68f5a…
06-26 09:24:52	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	519	99¢	$514	0x8c166f…
06-26 09:17:11	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1,020	99¢	$1,011	0x5dd38a…
06-26 06:52:49	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	458	99¢	$454	0x4a28b9…
06-26 06:03:34	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0x1d2511…
06-26 01:45:31	Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	610	100¢	$607	0x0c461b…
06-26 01:45:13	Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	396	100¢	$394	0x71ec39…
06-25 21:58:26	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	2,116	99¢	$2,097	0xa0a907…