Serious-Shoemaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.25K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.05K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,120

lifetime

Volume

$638.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$570

Open exposure

$55.8K

11 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 06-27 23:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

46% — —

Other

43% 100% +$1,250

Crypto

10% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 110 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-29,478	$-28,347	96¢	$-28269	+$78	06-19 03:07
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	-11,476	$-11,419	100¢	$-11465	$-46	06-25 20:38
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	+5,000	$4,955	100¢	$5.0K	+$40	06-27 14:12
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	+4,376	$4,144	96¢	$4.2K	+$37	06-14 01:08
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	No	+2,500	$2,487	100¢	$2.5K	+$7	06-27 14:13
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?	No	+2,108	$2,097	100¢	$2.1K	+$6	06-27 14:14
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	-1,553	$-1,469	93¢	$-1451	+$18	06-21 15:12
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	No	+791	$787	100¢	$791	+$3	06-26 01:45
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+6,626	$1,405	0¢	$17	$-1,388	06-15 18:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	-122	$-95	0¢	$-1	+$94	06-15 00:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+0	$-100	100¢	$0	+$100	06-21 11:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	241	$70.2K	1,035,368	35,828	+999,540	open	—	04-01 10:53
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$69.8K	70,000	0	+70,000	open	—	04-29 21:29
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$62.5K	31,779	31,779	+0	open	—	03-27 19:59
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$48.1K	48,500	0	+48,500	open	—	06-02 19:53
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$39.8K	40,000	0	+40,000	Yes	+$160	05-03 07:47
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	77	$32.7K	118,123	18,123	+100,000	open	—	04-01 07:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	21	$32.5K	39,066	0	+39,066	open	—	06-15 01:48
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	69	$32.4K	45,491	45,491	+0	open	—	03-31 15:12
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	86	$28.3K	0	29,478	-29,478	open	—	06-19 03:07
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	24	$19.9K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-30 04:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	117	$19.2K	11,035	11,157	-122	open	—	06-21 11:39
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	30	$19.2K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	04-01 12:42
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	45	$18.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	+$1,090	03-17 02:16
will the us invade iran by march 31	17	$17.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-28 17:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$17.1K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-23 11:18
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	13	$15.1K	15,239	0	+15,239	open	—	03-24 03:35
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	6	$14.5K	24,602	0	+24,602	open	—	03-24 22:02
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$11.4K	0	11,477	-11,476	open	—	06-25 20:38
iran leadership change by march 31	34	$6.8K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	03-23 03:17
will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	1	$5.5K	5,483	0	+5,483	open	—	06-18 00:02
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	9	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	06-27 14:12
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	12	$4.2K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	06-08 03:09
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	4	$4.1K	4,376	0	+4,376	open	—	06-14 01:08
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	1	$3.8K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	06-11 00:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	27	$3.1K	11,519	6,000	+5,519	open	—	06-12 18:11
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	6	$2.9K	3,597	0	+3,597	open	—	06-15 00:21
Netanyahu out by April 30?	2	$2.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	03-28 17:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$2.6K	40,000	0	+40,000	open	—	05-29 20:14
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	4	$2.5K	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	06-27 14:13
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	7	$2.4K	10,045	3,419	+6,626	open	—	06-15 18:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 23:07:04	world cup goals h2h messi vspt ronaldo 20260604005506837	Messi	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0xfa5c99…
06-27 22:08:20	world cup goals h2h messi vspt ronaldo 20260604005506837	Messi	BUY	161	92¢	$149	0x11dae8…
06-27 14:14:26	Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1,498	100¢	$1,490	0x4cbfbc…
06-27 14:13:11	Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1,661	100¢	$1,653	0x505880…
06-27 14:12:53	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	355	99¢	$352	0xf47ae6…
06-27 14:11:17	Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	440	100¢	$438	0x1db304…
06-27 14:11:11	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	227	99¢	$225	0x7dadd0…
06-27 14:04:23	Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	286	100¢	$285	0x099695…
06-27 13:50:38	Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$112	0x23d989…
06-27 13:50:22	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	207	99¢	$205	0xa3407c…
06-27 09:41:07	world cup goals h2h messi vspt ronaldo 20260604005506837	Messi	BUY	36	92¢	$33	0x049312…
06-26 12:12:58	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa68f5a…
06-26 09:24:52	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	519	99¢	$514	0x8c166f…
06-26 09:17:11	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1,020	99¢	$1,011	0x5dd38a…
06-26 06:52:49	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	458	99¢	$454	0x4a28b9…
06-26 06:03:34	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0x1d2511…
06-26 01:45:31	Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	610	100¢	$607	0x0c461b…
06-26 01:45:13	Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	396	100¢	$394	0x71ec39…
06-25 21:58:26	Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	2,116	99¢	$2,097	0xa0a907…
06-25 20:47:37	Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	395	100¢	$393	0x2e4b7b…
06-25 20:38:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x1646bd…
06-21 15:12:10	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	1,553	95¢	$1,469	0xc35ddc…
06-21 11:39:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	7,856	94¢	$7,384	0xd319b7…
06-21 11:34:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$10	0xe5e1d5…
06-21 11:31:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	4	94¢	$3	0xee811c…
06-21 11:27:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	188	94¢	$177	0x37f4fd…
06-21 11:27:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x1273c2…
06-21 11:24:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x97714b…
06-21 11:24:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0xa58621…
06-21 11:20:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xbad14f…
06-21 11:12:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x0a1062…
06-21 11:11:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	12	94¢	$12	0xce66b7…
06-21 11:07:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	248	94¢	$233	0xc79d8a…
06-21 04:13:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xb31b68…
06-21 04:12:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb81e4b…
06-21 04:12:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x7d8287…
06-21 04:12:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x0fbc8c…
06-21 04:12:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xaf3f03…
06-21 04:12:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x59c518…
06-21 04:10:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xfd4202…
06-21 04:10:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x594d7d…
06-21 04:09:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xbfc88d…
06-21 04:09:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xb5a21b…
06-21 04:09:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x38e6b0…
06-21 04:09:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$1	0xea6c75…
06-21 04:09:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xdec6ee…
06-21 04:07:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x3e7c4c…
06-21 04:07:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xd27a65…
06-21 04:07:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xb3f59d…
06-21 04:07:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xb1b216…
06-21 04:07:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xc56e5b…
06-21 04:07:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x58ec98…
06-21 04:06:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x1a4ca3…
06-21 04:06:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xc096ed…
06-21 04:06:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xa842c2…
06-21 04:06:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x793d74…
06-21 04:06:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x011a34…
06-21 04:03:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0xa1ec48…
06-21 04:02:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xf66ba0…
06-21 04:01:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x09de48…
06-21 04:01:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xf92224…
06-21 04:01:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x5f0d13…
06-21 04:01:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x5900d2…
06-21 04:01:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x7f64b7…
06-21 04:00:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xc7fbb6…
06-21 03:59:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xf50c8f…
06-21 03:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xdf4512…
06-21 03:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x9e4892…
06-21 03:59:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x86bb2c…
06-21 03:59:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x364372…
06-21 03:57:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	570	94¢	$536	0xff3f0d…
06-21 03:55:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xbef34a…
06-21 03:55:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xbeee0b…
06-21 03:55:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x9d9f1c…
06-21 03:55:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x71ba60…
06-21 03:55:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x67df2a…
06-21 03:43:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xb9a0b5…
06-21 03:43:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xb82eaf…
06-21 03:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xf9f117…
06-21 03:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xe45196…
06-21 03:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xa8e472…
06-21 03:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x837f00…
06-21 03:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x2c451b…
06-21 03:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x222c59…
06-21 03:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x14ae01…
06-21 03:43:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x45e06d…
06-21 03:43:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xe85911…
06-21 03:43:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x577625…
06-21 03:43:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x26fef9…
06-21 03:43:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xd45e16…
06-21 03:43:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x5abdf8…
06-21 03:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xc16c1a…
06-21 03:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xa459b0…
06-21 03:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x9bc4df…
06-21 03:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x0f3180…
06-21 03:43:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x7bac51…
06-21 03:43:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xca9407…
06-21 03:43:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x6db977…
06-21 03:43:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xc85346…
06-21 03:43:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xa43ef4…