Serious-Shoemaker — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.25K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

749

lifetime

Volume

$503.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$672

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-05

last 06-08 03:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

45% — —

Other

42% 100% +$1,250

Crypto

12% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 211 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
netanyahu out by march 31 854	241	$70.2K	1,035,368	35,828	+999,540	open	—	04-01 10:53
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$69.8K	70,000	0	+70,000	open	—	04-29 21:29
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$62.5K	31,779	31,779	+0	open	—	03-27 19:59
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$48.1K	48,500	0	+48,500	open	—	06-02 19:53
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$39.8K	40,000	0	+40,000	Yes	+$160	05-03 07:47
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	77	$32.7K	118,123	18,123	+100,000	open	—	04-01 07:12
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	69	$32.4K	45,491	45,491	+0	open	—	03-31 15:12
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	24	$19.9K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-30 04:22
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	30	$19.2K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	04-01 12:42
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	45	$18.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	Yes	+$1,090	03-17 02:16
will the us invade iran by march 31	17	$17.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-28 17:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$17.1K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-23 11:18
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	13	$15.1K	15,239	0	+15,239	open	—	03-24 03:35
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	6	$14.5K	24,602	0	+24,602	open	—	03-24 22:02
iran leadership change by march 31	34	$6.8K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	03-23 03:17
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	12	$4.2K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	06-08 03:09
Netanyahu out by April 30?	2	$2.9K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	03-28 17:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$2.6K	40,000	0	+40,000	open	—	05-29 20:14
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	24	$2.3K	6,701	6,701	+0	open	—	04-03 16:39
iran closes its airspace by june 8	20	$2.0K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	06-07 21:00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$1.3K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	04-29 21:19
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	32	$1.2K	9,095	9,095	+0	open	—	03-26 21:23
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	24	$728	1,604	802	+802	open	—	05-14 10:42
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	8	$545	948	0	+948	open	—	05-14 03:56
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$264	334	0	+334	open	—	05-14 03:08
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	11	$227	800	0	+800	open	—	05-14 03:51
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$146	359	0	+359	open	—	05-14 03:41
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$145	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	05-29 21:05
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	9	$138	161	0	+161	open	—	05-14 03:27
Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$84	125	0	+125	open	—	05-14 03:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 03:09:30	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x67f89c…
06-08 03:08:36	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	2,000	6¢	$112	0x5a6004…
06-08 03:08:12	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	2,000	6¢	$112	0x3c6ec0…
06-08 03:07:33	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	2,000	6¢	$112	0x0465c0…
06-08 03:07:19	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	191	6¢	$11	0x66f222…
06-08 03:04:07	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	1,921	6¢	$108	0x5b4fce…
06-08 03:04:06	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	1,875	6¢	$105	0xe202d3…
06-07 21:00:16	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	246	7¢	$17	0xd1a024…
06-07 21:00:15	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	735	7¢	$50	0x02e058…
06-07 21:00:10	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0xe5c2f7…
06-07 21:00:10	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x596aec…
06-07 21:00:06	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0x19566f…
06-07 20:56:12	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	1,797	10¢	$178	0xca03e7…
06-07 20:56:12	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	203	10¢	$20	0x7c4887…
06-07 20:55:40	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	1,000	10¢	$96	0xc77239…
06-07 20:37:58	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x6939d0…
06-07 20:37:58	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	794	44¢	$350	0x5ae64d…
06-07 20:37:55	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	152	44¢	$67	0x67d480…
06-07 20:37:55	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	48	44¢	$21	0x1ae633…
06-07 19:25:34	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xa577cb…
06-07 19:25:03	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	957	35¢	$335	0x220c8f…
06-07 19:24:58	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x1c2909…
06-07 19:24:57	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xe8b932…
06-07 19:16:27	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	103	40¢	$41	0xf102b8…
06-07 19:16:25	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	113	40¢	$45	0x34e45f…
06-07 19:16:19	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	1,669	40¢	$669	0xec9b51…
06-07 19:16:19	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	114	40¢	$46	0x5946a5…
06-05 19:59:43	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	264	36¢	$95	0xb6a4fe…
06-05 19:53:51	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xd52afa…
06-05 19:52:27	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	983	36¢	$354	0x5c6e25…
06-05 19:51:46	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	8,000	36¢	$2,880	0x27318d…
06-05 19:51:00	Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	750	36¢	$270	0xef22c1…
06-02 19:53:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0x27918a…
06-02 19:51:19	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,784	99¢	$2,759	0x14fe1a…
06-02 19:51:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,667	99¢	$1,652	0x0c57d6…
06-02 19:51:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x643eaa…
06-02 19:51:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x403a0f…
06-02 19:51:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	333	99¢	$330	0xcf6594…
06-02 19:51:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x7cbe5d…
06-02 19:51:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,704	99¢	$2,679	0x8d5a26…
06-02 19:51:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40,438	99¢	$40,074	0x9a4e88…
05-29 21:05:13	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	3¢	$145	0x7138cc…
05-29 20:14:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20,000	6¢	$1,200	0xf127d5…
05-29 19:10:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,356	7¢	$375	0xc26215…
05-29 19:10:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	7¢	$6	0x04cbce…
05-29 19:09:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x1b1b47…
05-29 19:09:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,454	7¢	$242	0xe02a64…
05-29 19:09:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10,000	7¢	$700	0x082875…
05-29 19:09:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,092	7¢	$76	0xcefc7f…
05-14 10:42:41	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	391	51¢	$200	0x943141…
05-14 10:35:02	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	1	51¢	$1	0xa45854…
05-14 09:10:17	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x233f67…
05-14 09:02:45	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	60	51¢	$31	0x58f756…
05-14 08:59:03	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	164	51¢	$84	0x991b15…
05-14 08:31:54	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xa9498d…
05-14 08:31:47	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	99	51¢	$51	0x0cb1d1…
05-14 08:31:45	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	74	51¢	$38	0xfcbace…
05-14 03:56:14	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	42	56¢	$24	0x83a8fd…
05-14 03:51:06	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	231	28¢	$65	0xe7bb2e…
05-14 03:49:28	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x6c0c65…
05-14 03:49:18	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0xbc2597…
05-14 03:48:46	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	163	28¢	$46	0x38752b…
05-14 03:48:24	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x40453f…
05-14 03:47:03	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x28f308…
05-14 03:42:46	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	23	56¢	$13	0xdcb466…
05-14 03:42:41	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x03c720…
05-14 03:42:35	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	104	28¢	$29	0xad52b9…
05-14 03:41:39	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	319	41¢	$131	0xaf3f58…
05-14 03:41:11	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	505	56¢	$283	0x585d53…
05-14 03:28:09	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	123	21¢	$26	0x0d3a37…
05-14 03:28:07	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	16	21¢	$3	0xe530d9…
05-14 03:27:31	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x2b47f7…
05-14 03:27:13	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	9	86¢	$7	0x25886c…
05-14 03:27:03	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xd76b41…
05-14 03:26:36	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0xdb1597…
05-14 03:25:09	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0xb79a32…
05-14 03:24:53	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xf883a6…
05-14 03:24:37	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x0466d4…
05-14 03:24:32	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x591f1c…
05-14 03:23:48	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x89fa68…
05-14 03:23:43	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0x945815…
05-14 03:23:29	Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	103	67¢	$69	0xc87006…
05-14 03:23:01	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x84bc3b…
05-14 03:22:52	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x77c94a…
05-14 03:22:12	Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	12	67¢	$8	0x3ffb69…
05-14 03:21:32	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xed4286…
05-14 03:21:23	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x7a323b…
05-14 03:20:57	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x2eaa85…
05-14 03:18:30	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	202	20¢	$40	0xb35e33…
05-14 03:17:50	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x041c54…
05-14 03:17:37	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	266	20¢	$53	0x3178e8…
05-14 03:17:30	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x22a6fd…
05-14 03:16:34	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	167	29¢	$48	0x464d3e…
05-14 03:16:27	Will Trump say "Farmer" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x273da7…
05-14 03:16:05	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x7620f3…
05-14 03:16:03	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	189	21¢	$40	0xb60d69…
05-14 03:15:56	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	85	20¢	$17	0xa9a898…
05-14 03:14:25	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	508	20¢	$104	0x5bd40e…
05-14 03:12:24	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x3d12c5…
05-14 03:12:10	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xe493a0…