Grown-Hypothesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.0%

Resolved

Trades

40,998

lifetime

Volume

$712.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 08-13 12:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

54% 100% +$8

Politics

18% 0% $-0

Crypto

17% 0% $-0

Sports

10% 67% +$21

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 496 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2,670	$55.0K	28,976	28,975	+1	Yes	+$5	04-28 07:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	351	$46.0K	25,672	25,602	+69	open	—	04-05 13:43
will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	1,158	$31.2K	16,382	16,382	+0	open	—	08-13 10:48
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	157	$27.4K	13,564	13,969	-404	open	—	07-22 04:48
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	387	$22.3K	11,294	11,277	+16	open	—	06-24 13:59
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1,817	$21.4K	10,982	10,986	-4	open	—	04-14 13:23
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1,028	$11.8K	6,347	6,284	+63	open	—	03-04 19:23
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	843	$11.1K	15,130	15,149	-19	open	—	04-28 10:55
will bitcoin reach 66k july 27 august 2 2026	69	$11.0K	5,628	5,526	+101	open	—	08-03 01:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	321	$10.4K	5,406	5,250	+156	open	—	05-29 23:48
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	440	$9.5K	4,981	5,005	-24	open	—	04-28 10:31
will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	54	$9.0K	4,528	4,528	+0	open	—	07-31 16:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	127	$8.7K	4,540	4,542	-2	open	—	08-05 18:17
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	413	$8.7K	4,540	4,400	+140	open	—	05-13 22:30
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	899	$8.6K	4,776	4,806	-30	open	—	03-24 12:02
will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	247	$8.3K	4,109	4,351	-242	open	—	06-24 17:38
will bitcoin dip to 58k july 27 august 2 2026	16	$7.0K	3,512	3,512	+0	open	—	08-03 01:03
will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	65	$6.4K	3,232	3,232	+0	open	—	07-28 03:45
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	219	$6.4K	3,233	3,433	-200	open	—	07-31 18:20
netanyahu out by march 31 854	781	$6.1K	3,103	3,103	+0	open	—	03-26 12:35
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	177	$6.0K	3,118	3,084	+34	open	—	06-01 00:46
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	759	$5.5K	4,569	4,556	+13	open	—	02-28 06:05
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 300 319	433	$5.4K	2,789	2,789	+0	open	—	04-03 15:03
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	33	$5.3K	2,755	2,755	+0	open	—	08-12 13:35
will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	15	$4.8K	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	08-02 12:34
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	695	$4.6K	2,395	2,402	-7	open	—	03-15 04:45
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 240 259	484	$4.4K	2,227	2,227	+0	open	—	03-06 15:38
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	129	$4.2K	2,127	2,161	-33	open	—	06-29 11:52
bitcoin above 62k on july 28 2026	33	$4.2K	2,086	2,086	+0	open	—	07-28 15:44
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	282	$3.7K	1,881	1,881	+0	open	—	03-18 14:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 12:21:25	lol gen hle1 2026 08 13	Hanwha Life Esports	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x7e31b0…
08-13 11:40:28	lol tes lgd 2026 08 13	Top Esports	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0xfc2846…
08-13 11:11:09	lol gen hle1 2026 08 13	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xfe0714…
08-13 10:48:12	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x76a747…
08-13 10:34:36	lol tes lgd 2026 08 13	Top Esports	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xd85972…
08-13 09:30:18	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x664635…
08-13 08:06:04	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1dd9a6…
08-13 08:05:22	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	18	100¢	$17	0xcd91e6…
08-13 08:05:07	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x0724ee…
08-13 08:01:36	lol wb nip 2026 08 13	Ninjas in Pyjamas	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x19548a…
08-13 07:58:01	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x85f77d…
08-13 07:57:33	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x65448a…
08-13 07:56:48	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x5b2faa…
08-13 07:56:43	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xe2ecef…
08-13 07:56:25	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x794e21…
08-13 07:56:00	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x293123…
08-13 07:55:54	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x5f99fa…
08-13 07:54:42	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x05dd3e…
08-13 07:54:24	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc020d0…
08-13 07:54:13	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x95470c…
08-13 07:53:07	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa4ad4b…
08-13 07:52:36	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xd2d74a…
08-13 06:47:27	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	70	99¢	$69	0xe1ce90…
08-13 06:10:36	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	201	99¢	$200	0xed1679…
08-13 05:23:07	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xef9fea…
08-13 00:40:21	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xfcfe92…
08-13 00:32:03	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x92dbc4…
08-12 23:08:06	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0867ce…
08-12 20:44:36	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	101	99¢	$100	0x9664a1…
08-12 20:40:19	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xd9b862…
08-12 20:34:57	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0x8c3fe8…
08-12 20:17:48	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x136c33…
08-12 20:14:09	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x983121…
08-12 19:47:43	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x9dd6f4…
08-12 19:11:39	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x8ebc0a…
08-12 18:27:40	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	201	99¢	$200	0x32fcbd…
08-12 14:37:57	lol blg jdg 2026 08 12	Bilibili Gaming	SELL	100	52¢	$52	0x45e4e4…
08-12 13:35:34	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	209	95¢	$200	0x1d4def…
08-12 13:28:27	lol blg jdg 2026 08 12	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xa28899…
08-12 12:21:45	will lionel messi attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630254	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x322d8e…
08-12 11:48:25	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0xdc87ba…
08-12 11:05:52	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	18	99¢	$17	0xa1cee3…
08-12 11:05:25	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xd44144…
08-12 11:04:58	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x143e66…
08-12 11:04:45	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x153cf4…
08-12 11:04:33	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x6eed8b…
08-12 11:04:04	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x6dc547…
08-12 11:03:55	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xf99be5…
08-12 11:03:49	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xe0a259…
08-12 11:03:45	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xece121…
08-12 11:03:39	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x0a3144…
08-12 11:03:34	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xef5ba8…
08-12 11:03:25	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xa38f4d…
08-12 11:03:04	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xff6dc1…
08-12 11:02:57	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x6d019e…
08-12 11:02:48	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x9321fd…
08-12 10:31:24	lol edg al 2026 08 12	Anyone's Legend	SELL	98	60¢	$59	0xbcf6a7…
08-12 10:31:16	lol edg al 2026 08 12	Anyone's Legend	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x2d20fa…
08-12 09:26:55	lol edg al 2026 08 12	Anyone's Legend	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x8ee819…
08-12 09:22:48	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	96	99¢	$95	0x5443e5…
08-12 08:58:39	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x329d42…
08-12 08:47:33	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x0d5fbe…
08-12 08:47:16	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x763f38…
08-12 08:47:03	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xd577b2…
08-12 08:46:49	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x076625…
08-12 08:46:06	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x63eb76…
08-12 08:45:52	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x5d4f53…
08-12 08:45:37	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xf5d9d1…
08-12 08:45:21	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xda0526…
08-12 08:45:09	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x59dcbc…
08-12 08:10:18	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	95	99¢	$94	0xdaf86b…
08-12 08:00:13	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x4b615e…
08-12 07:26:06	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0x4182ea…
08-12 07:25:22	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	SELL	201	100¢	$200	0x1702c1…
08-12 06:53:55	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	209	96¢	$200	0x7d115d…
08-12 06:47:39	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x42a2ea…
08-12 06:47:27	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x25ec1f…
08-12 06:47:13	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x418f84…
08-12 06:47:00	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x810cbf…
08-12 06:46:45	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x8f9899…
08-12 06:46:34	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xfb2822…
08-12 06:46:24	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xd7f1a2…
08-12 06:46:10	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x27a795…
08-12 06:44:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0xbc14ff…
08-12 06:42:24	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xc037a5…
08-12 06:42:12	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x634d70…
08-12 06:42:00	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xf968b3…
08-12 06:41:49	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xa69d5a…
08-12 06:41:19	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x4aa2a4…
08-12 06:41:04	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xdfa9b4…
08-12 06:40:52	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x61f775…
08-12 06:40:43	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x4e552d…
08-12 06:40:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	238	2¢	$4	0x0b4f63…
08-12 06:40:04	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x53f291…
08-12 05:50:13	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0xfcdd59…
08-12 05:47:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0x81c630…
08-12 05:45:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x9a3320…
08-12 05:39:30	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0xb52f67…
08-12 05:20:25	will ishowspeed attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630256	No	BUY	104	97¢	$100	0xdd5c2d…
08-12 05:16:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	133	2¢	$3	0x6184b6…