Realized P&L
+$162.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$188
Hit rate
98.6%
Resolved
48
Trades
5,965
lifetime
Volume
$49.6M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8.32K
Open exposure
$0
2 positions
First seen
2026-04-27
last 06-23 16:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 20 days
Categories
Politics
43%
100%
+$56,218
Crypto
30%
100%
+$56,402
Other
25%
96%
+$50,334
Sports
1%
0%
-$410
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-23).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | +0 | -$22 | 99¢ | $0 | +$22 | 04-30 08:41 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | +0 | -$166 | 98¢ | $0 | +$166 | 04-30 21:15 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 984 | $14.99M | 14,973,853 | 71,219 | +14,902,634 | No | +$56,402 | 06-04 00:27 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 451 | $12.76M | 13,793,025 | 1,000,000 | +12,793,025 | No | +$33,241 | 04-30 19:49 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 279 | $3.69M | 3,696,809 | 0 | +3,696,809 | Yes | +$8,217 | 04-29 17:08 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | 1,162 | $3.07M | 3,022,968 | 60,000 | +2,962,968 | Yes | +$16,398 | 06-17 07:53 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026 | 37 | $2.25M | 2,260,439 | 0 | +2,260,439 | Yes | +$6,743 | 04-30 19:21 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 62 | $2.00M | 1,999,998 | 0 | +1,999,998 | Yes | +$2,000 | 06-17 07:51 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 383 | $1.50M | 1,300,566 | 222,222 | +1,078,344 | No | +$9,396 | 05-23 09:19 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 87 | $1.44M | 1,440,161 | 0 | +1,440,161 | No | +$3,108 | 04-29 00:35 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252 | 15 | $1.11M | 1,111,110 | 0 | +1,111,110 | Yes | +$1,111 | 06-17 07:52 |
| us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851 | 58 | $845.9K | 846,794 | 0 | +846,794 | Yes | +$847 | 06-17 07:00 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | 51 | $722.5K | 723,214 | 0 | +723,214 | No | +$723 | 06-16 01:52 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026 | 1 | $555.0K | 555,555 | 0 | +555,555 | Yes | +$556 | 06-17 07:58 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026 | 9 | $555.0K | 555,555 | 0 | +555,555 | Yes | +$556 | 06-17 07:56 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 853 | $535.7K | 529,019 | 9,936 | +519,083 | Yes | +$2,957 | 05-11 04:25 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | 105 | $463.6K | 465,676 | 0 | +465,676 | Yes | +$2,123 | 05-12 19:24 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 8 | $438.0K | 222,222 | 222,222 | +0 | No | -$222 | 04-28 14:25 |
| Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? | 31 | $322.1K | 322,470 | 0 | +322,470 | Yes | +$322 | 05-05 00:57 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | 40 | $315.5K | 304,263 | 12,223 | +292,040 | No | +$877 | 06-07 15:10 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | 154 | $233.9K | 236,050 | 0 | +236,050 | No | +$2,107 | 06-17 18:30 |
| Trump out as President by May 31? | 28 | $201.4K | 202,709 | 0 | +202,709 | No | +$1,309 | 05-23 22:17 |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 5 | $187.9K | 97,961 | 97,961 | +0 | No | -$171 | 04-28 14:24 |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | 79 | $163.7K | 163,897 | 0 | +163,897 | Yes | +$164 | 06-07 23:28 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | 98 | $149.7K | 151,316 | 0 | +151,316 | No | +$1,601 | 05-20 16:30 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 15 | $146.2K | 74,056 | 74,056 | +0 | No | +$1,457 | 06-23 16:21 |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | 287 | $115.8K | 120,799 | 0 | +120,799 | No | +$5,046 | 06-15 17:40 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 53 | $112.1K | 101,669 | 11,009 | +90,660 | No | +$412 | 05-11 14:29 |
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | 21 | $105.9K | 106,986 | 0 | +106,986 | No | +$1,056 | 05-20 15:21 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 120 | $98.6K | 53,314 | 53,314 | +0 | open | — | 04-30 21:15 |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | 43 | $95.8K | 117,076 | 20,940 | +96,136 | No | +$1,155 | 05-11 13:03 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | 46 | $89.9K | 91,992 | 0 | +91,992 | Yes | +$2,079 | 05-27 14:22 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||