Realized P&L
+$1.73M
Unrealized P&L
+$39.9K
Hit rate
86.7%
Resolved
1,141
Trades
17,897
lifetime
Volume
$15.7M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$876
Open exposure
$1.80M
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-09
last 10-31 19:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 124 days
Categories
Other
77% 59% +$1,584,360
Politics
15% 74% +$145,715
Sports
5% 59% -$14,213
Tech
3% 100% +$12,500
Crypto
1% 64% +$5,981
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
80 active days in 12wk • peak 542 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +643,512 $519,443 97¢ $624.2K +$104,764 10-30 00:27
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No +179,855 $162,744 95¢ $171.6K +$8,838 10-30 20:17
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +179,970 $136,466 70¢ $126.0K -$10,487 10-30 14:51
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes +111,923 $78,292 82¢ $91.8K +$13,485 10-30 20:54
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +96,910 $81,605 80¢ $77.0K -$4,562 10-31 19:46
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes +313,400 $87,686 24¢ $73.6K -$14,037 10-22 05:19
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +75,000 $68,900 94¢ $70.9K +$1,975 10-29 23:05
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +106,000 $90,160 58¢ $61.5K -$28,680 08-13 12:34
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +60,000 $55,000 94¢ $56.7K +$1,700 10-25 23:02
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +80,000 $65,000 70¢ $56.4K -$8,600 10-11 12:35
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +93,019 $97,556 58¢ $53.8K -$43,745 10-31 17:30
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No +54,502 $41,802 98¢ $53.7K +$11,856 07-12 00:23
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +55,394 $44,115 92¢ $50.7K +$6,627 10-30 20:28
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +50,000 $42,500 72¢ $35.7K -$6,750 09-30 12:35
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes +43,546 $30,468 70¢ $30.3K -$204 10-31 19:43
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No +26,910 $22,850 99¢ $26.6K +$3,791 07-14 12:40
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +18,544 $17,780 97¢ $18.0K +$226 10-29 17:39
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +20,000 $17,700 86¢ $17.1K -$600 09-13 05:16
will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743 No +17,000 $14,850 95¢ $16.2K +$1,308 07-21 21:13
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No +15,451 $14,527 96¢ $14.9K +$345 09-16 20:48
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No +13,000 $11,860 97¢ $12.6K +$769 08-11 07:19
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No +10,512 $9,721 97¢ $10.2K +$449 10-15 23:04
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +11,921 $9,915 83¢ $9.9K -$20 10-01 21:00
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? No +9,000 $8,630 97¢ $8.7K +$91 10-23 21:40
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +8,000 $7,485 97¢ $7.8K +$295 05-22 09:35
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? No +8,038 $7,617 95¢ $7.6K +$27 10-25 07:14
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? No +7,500 $5,669 78¢ $5.8K +$181 10-27 22:40
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes +13,000 $6,370 44¢ $5.7K -$715 05-20 17:21
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +5,000 $4,580 98¢ $4.9K +$332 05-22 08:34
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes +5,000 $3,580 96¢ $4.8K +$1,223 07-05 05:25