Realized P&L
-$6.74K
Unrealized P&L
+$17.2K
Hit rate
90.0%
Resolved
19
Trades
5,692
lifetime
Volume
$3.05M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$536
Open exposure
$205.5K
22 positions
First seen
2026-02-09
last 06-30 06:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
45% 0% $-3,440
Other
34% 78% +$5,095
Sports
14% 33% $-11,508
Crypto
6% 60% +$3,118
Tech
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 513 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +108,713 $50,785 52¢ $57.1K +$6,290 06-27 17:27
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No +43,355 $41,986 98¢ $42.7K +$696 06-30 06:04
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No +42,918 $32,607 82¢ $35.2K +$2,587 06-30 03:19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No -29,989 $-29,779 100¢ $-29959 $-180 06-11 22:44
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No +9,458 $8,296 95¢ $8.9K +$646 06-27 01:29
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No -6,999 $-6,509 100¢ $-6982 $-472 05-29 04:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes -7,990 $-7,051 82¢ $-6592 +$459 06-25 11:53
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No -5,000 $-4,750 96¢ $-4812 $-62 06-09 22:18
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No +3,358 $2,823 86¢ $2.9K +$57 06-26 21:35
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? No +2,265 $2,084 92¢ $2.1K +$11 06-29 21:50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes -8,000 $-2,720 20¢ $-1560 +$1,160 06-11 19:35
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Yes +1,493 $1,323 99¢ $1.5K +$153 06-12 08:20
Stripe IPO before 2027? No +1,401 $1,226 94¢ $1.3K +$85 06-16 04:08
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No +1,248 $1,111 90¢ $1.1K +$19 06-21 16:25
2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes +1,000 $860 96¢ $955 +$95 06-26 04:26
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes +1,700 $272 36¢ $604 +$332 06-17 13:24
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes -5,000 $-500 $-425 +$75 06-11 13:37
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes +5,000 $650 $325 $-325 05-28 19:26
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? No +377 $283 82¢ $309 +$26 06-15 05:03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes -33,998 $-5,782 $-153 +$5,629 06-16 13:29
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes +3 $1 42¢ $1 +$0 06-17 19:19
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes +1,000 $80 $1 $-79 05-27 21:12