Realized P&L
+$262.1K
Unrealized P&L
-$8.82K
Hit rate
86.8%
Resolved
41
Trades
1,863
lifetime
Volume
$2.15M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1.16K
Open exposure
$124.7K
5 positions
First seen
2026-01-07
last 06-29 18:10
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 26 days
Categories
Politics
67%
62%
+$328,485
Other
29%
50%
-$33,880
Crypto
3%
100%
+$440
Sports
2%
0%
-$32,966
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-29).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | -116,602 | -$105,788 | 96¢ | $-111355 | -$5,567 | 06-29 18:10 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | -5,000 | -$4,250 | 86¢ | $-4325 | -$75 | 06-26 18:57 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | -4,349 | -$4,088 | 95¢ | $-4143 | -$54 | 06-01 14:52 | |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | -4,000 | -$3,720 | 96¢ | $-3824 | -$104 | 06-05 05:48 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | +23,839 | $4,091 | 4¢ | $1.1K | -$3,018 | 05-16 23:09 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 46 | $618.1K | 429,535 | 200,000 | +229,535 | Yes | +$11,045 | 04-09 19:09 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 18 | $157.7K | 80,000 | 80,000 | +0 | No | +$2,144 | 04-02 00:22 |
| new stranger things episode released by wednesday | 74 | $138.2K | 140,364 | 0 | +140,364 | No | +$2,144 | 01-07 20:31 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 12 | $119.2K | 120,814 | 0 | +120,814 | No | +$1,652 | 02-02 18:56 |
| new stranger things episode released by january 31 294 | 87 | $117.4K | 60,139 | 60,138 | +1 | No | +$1,872 | 01-27 14:45 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 208 | $109.9K | 23,839 | 116,602 | -92,763 | open | — | 06-29 18:10 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 30 | 169 | $104.5K | 365,447 | 0 | +365,447 | Yes | +$260,921 | 04-04 16:05 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 1 | $99.7K | 100,000 | 0 | +100,000 | No | +$300 | 04-30 19:53 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 159 | $89.1K | 266,382 | 0 | +266,382 | No | -$89,066 | 05-25 12:36 |
| will khamenei leave iran by friday | 49 | $61.6K | 63,773 | 0 | +63,773 | No | +$2,178 | 01-09 05:27 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 8 | $55.9K | 68,335 | 0 | +68,335 | No | +$12,448 | 01-09 01:08 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 1 | $54.6K | 55,000 | 0 | +55,000 | No | +$440 | 06-02 16:26 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 1 | $45.7K | 46,000 | 0 | +46,000 | Yes | +$322 | 01-27 14:46 |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | 43 | $41.3K | 23,809 | 23,809 | +0 | No | +$5,962 | 06-18 20:27 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 36 | $40.9K | 96,180 | 0 | +96,180 | Yes | +$55,238 | 06-17 18:59 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 117 | $33.0K | 68,679 | 0 | +68,679 | No | -$32,966 | 05-26 00:56 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 58 | $32.7K | 103,983 | 0 | +103,983 | No | -$32,675 | 06-14 22:29 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 34 | $30.1K | 108,418 | 0 | +108,418 | Yes | +$78,360 | 05-08 19:25 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | 178 | $29.4K | 70,754 | 49,513 | +21,241 | Yes | -$28,194 | 02-28 23:30 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 29 | $20.7K | 26,229 | 30,672 | -4,443 | No | -$6,461 | 01-20 17:03 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | 20 | $17.6K | 20,000 | 0 | +20,000 | No | +$2,400 | 05-24 17:52 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | 7 | $15.3K | 35,334 | 0 | +35,334 | No | +$19,986 | 05-24 17:58 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 2 | $13.6K | 23,739 | 0 | +23,739 | Yes | +$10,097 | 06-13 18:32 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | 75 | $12.7K | 22,615 | 15,602 | +7,013 | Yes | -$12,215 | 02-28 23:17 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | 23 | $9.4K | 41,501 | 0 | +41,501 | No | -$9,381 | 05-28 19:35 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | 40 | $9.4K | 26,687 | 0 | +26,687 | No | -$9,364 | 04-07 06:00 |
| us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612 | 20 | $9.2K | 13,030 | 2,599 | +10,431 | No | +$3,284 | 01-14 22:53 |
| will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322 | 28 | $8.5K | 10,525 | 0 | +10,525 | No | +$2,015 | 01-09 02:01 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 16 | $8.0K | 33,276 | 0 | +33,276 | Yes | +$25,314 | 03-20 21:29 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 90 | $7.0K | 25,000 | 25,000 | +0 | No | -$6,905 | 05-08 19:42 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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