Impressive-Scarecrow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

90.2%

Resolved

Trades

10,912

lifetime

Volume

$597.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 08-03 22:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

82% 50% $-91

Other

17% 100% +$57

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 446 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	107	$93.0K	75,701	40,148	+35,553	open	—	02-27 22:40
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	77	$78.4K	76,884	5,000	+71,884	open	—	02-27 22:49
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$74.4K	74,460	0	+74,460	open	—	03-04 16:59
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$70.8K	71,058	0	+71,058	open	—	04-07 09:47
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	30	$46.0K	46,187	0	+46,187	open	—	03-08 21:34
us forces enter iran by march 7	31	$24.7K	25,000	0	+25,000	open	—	03-07 16:38
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	78	$23.2K	26,035	0	+26,035	open	—	03-24 16:21
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	52	$15.1K	15,459	0	+15,459	open	—	03-24 16:19
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	56	$10.0K	10,141	0	+10,141	open	—	04-16 03:17
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	47	$8.9K	9,052	0	+9,052	open	—	03-24 15:08
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	46	$6.9K	7,000	357	+6,643	open	—	05-13 19:56
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	136	$5.6K	5,811	0	+5,811	open	—	03-12 02:25
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	330	$4.8K	5,219	0	+5,219	open	—	06-21 21:39
trump out as president by march 31	32	$4.3K	4,324	0	+4,324	open	—	03-24 15:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	235	$4.1K	4,299	0	+4,299	open	—	06-21 09:49
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	235	$3.9K	4,045	0	+4,045	open	—	06-28 01:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	396	$3.8K	6,380	0	+6,380	open	—	06-29 01:56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	203	$3.6K	3,711	0	+3,711	open	—	06-26 22:24
president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	47	$3.5K	3,720	0	+3,720	open	—	07-17 17:08
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	19	$3.4K	3,400	0	+3,400	open	—	06-17 19:27
iran leadership change by march 31	40	$3.2K	4,122	0	+4,122	open	—	03-24 15:43
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	211	$3.1K	3,317	0	+3,317	open	—	06-18 18:04
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	191	$3.0K	3,346	0	+3,346	open	—	05-25 04:46
Iran leadership change by May 31?	168	$3.0K	3,100	0	+3,100	open	—	05-25 05:51
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	30	$2.9K	2,905	0	+2,905	open	—	03-24 14:22
Iran leadership change by April 30?	70	$2.8K	4,668	0	+4,668	open	—	03-11 20:13
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	396	$2.7K	2,882	0	+2,882	open	—	06-12 14:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	169	$2.5K	2,645	0	+2,645	open	—	05-23 00:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	126	$2.3K	2,419	0	+2,419	open	—	05-25 06:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	138	$2.2K	2,241	0	+2,241	open	—	05-25 07:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-03 22:14:36	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x9c5adc…
08-03 14:50:02	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x64a4d1…
08-03 13:48:48	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xf6ac0a…
08-03 11:28:03	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x83c409…
08-03 06:51:32	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x0066ef…
08-03 01:43:38	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x41e85b…
08-03 00:35:11	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xead3b7…
08-02 01:48:35	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x2edb67…
08-01 23:35:56	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	1	52¢	$1	0xa745d1…
08-01 23:35:53	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0xc55f0e…
08-01 20:44:27	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xbe5622…
08-01 18:57:57	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	14	53¢	$7	0x45ce74…
08-01 13:29:41	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xf95dab…
08-01 12:26:18	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x8d85e3…
08-01 12:11:33	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x7f50b0…
08-01 12:04:23	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x1f2031…
08-01 10:12:50	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x38b0f3…
08-01 06:45:06	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x03e30f…
08-01 06:43:09	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x85739c…
07-22 02:40:45	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0xc4503b…
07-21 22:49:24	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x77b41b…
07-21 21:30:34	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x6d48ba…
07-21 21:11:36	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xc12aa7…
07-21 18:16:43	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbdfbbb…
07-21 16:56:51	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x4d38ce…
07-20 15:48:07	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xef1487…
07-20 15:04:16	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	18	38¢	$7	0xbe8bdb…
07-20 15:04:16	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x65280d…
07-20 14:32:42	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x1a6277…
07-20 11:08:55	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x7651ff…
07-20 10:40:03	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x212c18…
07-20 10:23:16	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xd4d1ab…
07-20 10:09:24	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x3b446c…
07-20 09:40:43	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x30869c…
07-20 07:37:51	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x3474cd…
07-20 06:52:25	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xa57d03…
07-20 06:52:21	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	0	89¢	$0	0xf2b0d7…
07-20 06:52:15	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xadb6ef…
07-20 06:52:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x42ba3a…
07-20 06:52:10	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x10366e…
07-20 06:52:09	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	0	89¢	$0	0x631ccc…
07-20 06:33:03	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x3d2887…
07-20 03:31:18	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x80dbfb…
07-20 03:31:16	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xdf975a…
07-20 00:41:49	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xc16727…
07-20 00:36:25	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x72b8eb…
07-19 23:33:15	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xddec7d…
07-19 02:51:45	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2d2c77…
07-19 00:26:01	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x33dd0e…
07-19 00:26:00	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8a0fde…
07-19 00:25:52	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x0a3581…
07-18 21:31:58	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xaa2fd7…
07-18 21:31:57	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc70f1e…
07-18 21:31:27	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x21c688…
07-18 19:55:21	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x53d878…
07-18 19:55:18	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3eff70…
07-18 19:54:42	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x1a6941…
07-18 16:47:00	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xba95a7…
07-17 17:08:01	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xeba18f…
07-17 16:33:55	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x80a96d…
07-17 16:02:16	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x509a80…
07-17 15:23:49	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xc3f7e0…
07-17 14:51:51	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x50776a…
07-17 14:07:21	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xf923ff…
07-17 13:36:45	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xde8361…
07-17 12:46:12	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xba5903…
07-17 12:14:31	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xa21148…
07-17 11:27:42	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x7550e0…
07-17 10:52:46	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xaca165…
07-15 15:40:35	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x4b999d…
07-15 15:10:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xc07fa8…
07-15 14:39:31	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xb5e8c6…
07-15 14:08:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xfdd001…
07-15 13:38:07	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x343dbf…
07-15 13:05:49	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x89b44f…
07-15 12:29:32	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x7f87a9…
07-15 11:58:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x4cfc6d…
07-15 11:56:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0xa0dde5…
07-15 11:35:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x0f60e7…
07-15 11:02:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x74ed1e…
07-15 10:58:34	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xcd9031…
07-15 10:26:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xfd8254…
07-15 09:54:50	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x1215a8…
07-15 09:19:14	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x4225db…
07-15 09:17:37	will base launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x5e4f19…
07-15 08:43:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x72b6a2…
07-15 07:56:49	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0xfa0be3…
07-15 07:55:05	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x2c7266…
07-15 07:23:58	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x98beb2…
07-15 06:52:20	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xf5324d…
07-15 06:15:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x2b4c4a…
07-15 05:45:01	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x6fd162…
07-15 05:10:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xe40c76…
07-15 04:35:19	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xd38634…
07-15 03:55:23	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x51f1f6…
07-15 03:24:52	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x38ddbf…
07-15 02:42:04	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x0c1105…
07-15 02:11:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x11c45e…
07-15 01:40:59	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xdef085…
07-15 01:17:19	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0x4b7969…