Realized P&L
+$677.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$35.2K
Hit rate
98.1%
Resolved
1,107
Trades
63,759
lifetime
Volume
$188.1M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2.95K
Open exposure
$4.62M
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 00:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 181 days
Categories
Politics
46%
97%
+$237,109
Other
43%
97%
+$359,904
Crypto
6%
96%
+$47,013
Sports
4%
68%
+$23,138
Tech
1%
97%
+$10,047
Pop-Culture
0%
100%
+$4
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 757 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | +1,500,000 | $1,403,000 | 94¢ | $1.41M | +$7,000 | 10-26 17:13 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | +1,100,000 | $1,031,000 | 94¢ | $1.03M | -$2,500 | 10-26 16:36 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +389,345 | $368,918 | 96¢ | $373.2K | +$4,269 | 10-23 13:41 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | No | +289,300 | $285,987 | 99¢ | $287.7K | +$1,722 | 10-26 04:09 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +271,193 | $255,347 | 96¢ | $260.3K | +$4,999 | 10-25 12:52 | |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | +263,458 | $255,570 | 98¢ | $258.2K | +$2,619 | 10-25 19:45 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +256,272 | $248,202 | 96¢ | $246.9K | -$1,284 | 10-25 03:43 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | +139,168 | $138,494 | 100¢ | $138.8K | +$326 | 10-26 15:52 | |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | +77,039 | $74,196 | 97¢ | $74.6K | +$416 | 10-15 22:55 | |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | +64,821 | $62,585 | 97¢ | $62.7K | +$97 | 10-26 17:49 | |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | +59,746 | $57,581 | 97¢ | $57.9K | +$343 | 10-26 17:33 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | +50,418 | $47,566 | 98¢ | $49.6K | +$1,996 | 10-25 09:22 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | +44,664 | $43,321 | 98¢ | $43.7K | +$427 | 10-02 16:47 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | +36,558 | $36,412 | 100¢ | $36.4K | +$18 | 10-26 14:48 | |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | +35,878 | $31,478 | 90¢ | $32.1K | +$632 | 10-26 21:50 | |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | No | +31,352 | $30,921 | 100¢ | $31.2K | +$321 | 10-25 19:48 | |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | No | +29,133 | $27,550 | 97¢ | $28.1K | +$578 | 10-17 15:34 | |
| Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? | No | +25,000 | $23,400 | 97¢ | $24.3K | +$862 | 10-22 08:21 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | +19,121 | $17,966 | 98¢ | $18.7K | +$686 | 09-20 00:32 | |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | No | +19,683 | $17,290 | 92¢ | $18.0K | +$720 | 10-25 07:00 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | +24,540 | $19,273 | 70¢ | $17.1K | -$2,218 | 10-06 23:58 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | +17,166 | $14,517 | 98¢ | $16.8K | +$2,315 | 10-15 19:25 | |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | +17,704 | $9,745 | 94¢ | $16.6K | +$6,808 | 09-11 09:31 | |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | +15,209 | $13,959 | 97¢ | $14.8K | +$816 | 07-20 13:52 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026? | Yes | +15,000 | $14,025 | 97¢ | $14.5K | +$457 | 10-22 07:51 | |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | No | +14,162 | $13,375 | 96¢ | $13.6K | +$263 | 10-25 17:52 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | +14,129 | $12,384 | 96¢ | $13.6K | +$1,194 | 10-04 10:36 | |
| Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? | Yes | +13,974 | $13,291 | 96¢ | $13.4K | +$82 | 10-22 18:31 | |
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? | No | +11,598 | $10,511 | 97¢ | $11.3K | +$768 | 10-22 07:51 | |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | +9,000 | $8,250 | 97¢ | $8.7K | +$485 | 10-05 17:40 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 653 | $7.44M | 7,244,163 | 239,927 | +7,004,236 | No | +$46,227 | 06-03 21:41 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 1,329 | $7.17M | 7,228,840 | 0 | +7,228,840 | Yes | +$55,418 | 03-18 17:37 |
| will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | 483 | $6.49M | 6,500,088 | 0 | +6,500,088 | Yes | +$6,500 | 07-08 16:37 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 1,299 | $6.42M | 6,478,925 | 4,121 | +6,474,804 | Yes | +$57,949 | 01-28 18:46 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 229 | $6.42M | 6,436,645 | 0 | +6,436,645 | No | +$19,210 | 04-30 19:49 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 587 | $6.38M | 6,380,275 | 16,536 | +6,363,739 | Yes | +$4,986 | 04-10 12:16 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 390 | $4.87M | 4,875,898 | 0 | +4,875,898 | No | +$10,140 | 07-29 16:21 |
| will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31 | 173 | $4.71M | 4,718,020 | 0 | +4,718,020 | Yes | +$4,718 | 03-25 23:40 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 763 | $4.64M | 4,620,975 | 50,000 | +4,570,975 | Yes | +$25,997 | 04-08 00:34 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 865 | $4.23M | 4,202,717 | 55,307 | +4,147,409 | Yes | +$18,387 | 03-02 03:45 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026 | 87 | $3.96M | 3,961,922 | 0 | +3,961,922 | Yes | +$3,962 | 04-18 00:28 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 540 | $3.88M | 3,901,136 | 0 | +3,901,136 | Yes | +$16,870 | 04-29 16:48 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 241 | $3.56M | 3,062,868 | 507,077 | +2,555,791 | No | +$6,109 | 01-04 21:15 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 923 | $3.31M | 3,373,991 | 0 | +3,373,991 | No | +$67,901 | 03-04 19:26 |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | 159 | $3.26M | 3,236,477 | 31,596 | +3,204,881 | No | +$5,723 | 05-13 18:34 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 317 | $3.23M | 3,234,273 | 0 | +3,234,273 | Yes | +$4,731 | 03-13 17:32 |
| Trump kiss by May 31? | 406 | $2.89M | 2,893,377 | 0 | +2,893,377 | Yes | +$2,893 | 05-22 19:18 |
| will melania say career during ai talk on friday | 253 | $2.78M | 2,781,206 | 0 | +2,781,206 | No | +$3,361 | 01-20 22:11 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 619 | $2.74M | 2,757,037 | 0 | +2,757,037 | No | +$15,837 | 09-16 17:55 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 255 | $2.63M | 2,639,860 | 5,000 | +2,634,860 | Yes | +$10,087 | 02-03 07:28 |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | 236 | $2.51M | 1,511,090 | 1,000,000 | +511,090 | Yes | +$3,818 | 06-17 21:53 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 21 | $2.50M | 2,500,000 | 0 | +2,500,000 | Yes | +$2,500 | 05-09 17:55 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 89 | $2.47M | 2,471,546 | 0 | +2,471,546 | Yes | +$2,472 | 04-24 10:52 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | 785 | $2.43M | 2,450,680 | 0 | +2,450,680 | Yes | +$15,846 | 06-16 16:56 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | 268 | $2.38M | 2,323,041 | 65,751 | +2,257,290 | Yes | +$6,576 | 06-01 23:21 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 199 | $2.37M | 2,391,942 | 0 | +2,391,942 | No | +$19,549 | 09-16 17:57 |
| will the us strike somalia next 656 | 247 | $2.29M | 2,294,000 | 0 | +2,294,000 | Yes | +$2,644 | 01-26 13:47 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 368 | $2.09M | 2,097,127 | 0 | +2,097,127 | Yes | +$7,343 | 06-17 07:58 |
| will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021 | 64 | $2.00M | 2,000,068 | 0 | +2,000,068 | Yes | +$3,550 | 07-23 00:11 |
| us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983 | 403 | $1.98M | 1,639,570 | 350,000 | +1,289,570 | No | +$4,590 | 01-03 23:18 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||