Realized P&L
+$13.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$10.0K
Hit rate
99.8%
Resolved
27
Trades
44,385
lifetime
Volume
$152.7M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3.44K
Open exposure
$446.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 23:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Politics
54%
100%
+$2,673
Other
33%
100%
+$12,237
Crypto
7%
100%
+$13
Sports
5%
57%
$-1,251
Tech
0%
—
—
Pop-Culture
0%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 1138 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +148,896 | $135,574 | 92¢ | $137.7K | +$2,156 | 07-20 05:56 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | +84,221 | $79,450 | 98¢ | $82.2K | +$2,792 | 07-12 00:35 | |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | +58,632 | $54,377 | 94¢ | $54.8K | +$444 | 07-21 02:56 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | -47,654 | $-43,462 | 94¢ | $-45033 | $-1,572 | 06-24 15:53 | |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | +32,212 | $29,889 | 97¢ | $31.2K | +$1,325 | 07-14 09:16 | |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | +18,785 | $17,558 | 95¢ | $17.8K | +$288 | 07-14 21:24 | |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | Yes | +26,641 | $13,211 | 50¢ | $13.3K | +$70 | 07-11 08:56 | |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | No | +10,632 | $9,999 | 95¢ | $10.1K | +$102 | 07-13 19:04 | |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | +10,000 | $5,000 | 68¢ | $6.9K | +$1,850 | 07-19 16:41 | |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | +5,051 | $4,717 | 96¢ | $4.8K | +$106 | 07-20 13:52 | |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | +5,010 | $4,219 | 90¢ | $4.5K | +$315 | 07-19 09:37 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | +7,500 | $3,825 | 56¢ | $4.2K | +$337 | 07-19 16:40 | |
| Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | +3,708 | $3,247 | 89¢ | $3.3K | +$53 | 07-12 13:43 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | Yes | +20,769 | $2,700 | 15¢ | $3.0K | +$312 | 06-24 10:25 | |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,911 | $2,324 | 88¢ | $2.5K | +$223 | 07-14 05:11 | |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? | No | +2,530 | $2,277 | 96¢ | $2.4K | +$145 | 06-21 16:16 | |
| US takes Panama Canal before 2027? | No | +2,417 | $2,180 | 96¢ | $2.3K | +$129 | 06-23 13:04 | |
| Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027? | No | +2,149 | $2,021 | 99¢ | $2.1K | +$106 | 07-08 10:41 | |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? | No | +2,159 | $2,007 | 94¢ | $2.0K | +$32 | 07-02 20:26 | |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | No | +2,095 | $1,805 | 97¢ | $2.0K | +$235 | 06-28 03:41 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,000 | $1,850 | 95¢ | $1.9K | +$50 | 06-27 04:02 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | +1,938 | $1,671 | 98¢ | $1.9K | +$225 | 07-07 14:58 | |
| Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | +1,823 | $1,638 | 92¢ | $1.7K | +$49 | 06-14 16:07 | |
| Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,663 | $1,523 | 95¢ | $1.6K | +$60 | 07-14 09:14 | |
| Will Tempo launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | +1,573 | $1,463 | 94¢ | $1.5K | +$8 | 07-20 23:33 | |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | Yes | +2,500 | $1,225 | 50¢ | $1.3K | +$37 | 06-23 08:47 | |
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,283 | $1,177 | 93¢ | $1.2K | +$16 | 07-01 01:15 | |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | No | +2,327 | $1,140 | 50¢ | $1.2K | +$12 | 07-21 02:48 | |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | +2,603 | $914 | 40¢ | $1.0K | +$114 | 07-14 10:41 | |
| Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? | No | +1,012 | $958 | 96¢ | $976 | +$18 | 07-21 03:40 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 641 | $7.41M | 7,214,907 | 239,927 | +6,974,980 | open | — | 06-03 21:41 |
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 1,329 | $7.17M | 7,228,840 | 0 | +7,228,840 | open | — | 03-18 17:37 |
| will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | 483 | $6.49M | 6,500,088 | 0 | +6,500,088 | open | — | 07-08 16:37 |
| no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting | 1,299 | $6.42M | 6,478,925 | 4,121 | +6,474,804 | open | — | 01-28 18:46 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 229 | $6.42M | 6,436,645 | 0 | +6,436,645 | open | — | 04-30 19:49 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 587 | $6.38M | 6,380,275 | 16,536 | +6,363,739 | open | — | 04-10 12:16 |
| will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31 | 173 | $4.71M | 4,718,020 | 0 | +4,718,020 | open | — | 03-25 23:40 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 763 | $4.64M | 4,620,975 | 50,000 | +4,570,975 | open | — | 04-08 00:34 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 865 | $4.23M | 4,202,717 | 55,307 | +4,147,409 | open | — | 03-02 03:45 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026 | 87 | $3.96M | 3,961,922 | 0 | +3,961,922 | open | — | 04-18 00:28 |
| will eleven die in stranger things season 5 | 241 | $3.56M | 3,062,868 | 507,077 | +2,555,791 | open | — | 01-04 21:15 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 923 | $3.31M | 3,373,991 | 0 | +3,373,991 | open | — | 03-04 19:26 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 317 | $3.23M | 3,234,273 | 0 | +3,234,273 | open | — | 03-13 17:32 |
| will melania say career during ai talk on friday | 253 | $2.78M | 2,781,206 | 0 | +2,781,206 | open | — | 01-20 22:11 |
| Trump kiss by May 31? | 393 | $2.78M | 2,778,637 | 0 | +2,778,637 | open | — | 05-22 19:18 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 255 | $2.63M | 2,639,860 | 5,000 | +2,634,860 | open | — | 02-03 07:28 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 387 | $2.54M | 2,548,444 | 0 | +2,548,444 | open | — | 04-28 06:01 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 21 | $2.50M | 2,500,000 | 0 | +2,500,000 | Yes | +$2,500 | 05-09 17:55 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 89 | $2.47M | 2,471,546 | 0 | +2,471,546 | open | — | 04-24 10:52 |
| us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851 | 180 | $2.44M | 1,440,678 | 1,000,000 | +440,678 | open | — | 06-17 21:53 |
| will the us strike somalia next 656 | 247 | $2.29M | 2,294,000 | 0 | +2,294,000 | open | — | 01-26 13:47 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | 250 | $2.20M | 2,140,523 | 65,751 | +2,074,772 | open | — | 06-01 23:21 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 368 | $2.09M | 2,097,127 | 0 | +2,097,127 | open | — | 06-17 07:58 |
| us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983 | 403 | $1.98M | 1,639,570 | 350,000 | +1,289,570 | open | — | 01-03 23:18 |
| will trump say jesus this week march 8 | 156 | $1.84M | 1,840,942 | 0 | +1,840,942 | open | — | 03-11 21:54 |
| us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9 | 2 | $1.82M | 1,826,624 | 0 | +1,826,624 | open | — | 06-10 04:56 |
| will iran strike uae again in march | 216 | $1.81M | 1,114,153 | 700,000 | +414,153 | open | — | 04-08 23:42 |
| microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025 | 53 | $1.71M | 561,038 | 1,149,328 | -588,290 | open | — | 01-04 21:41 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 550 | $1.52M | 718,587 | 812,704 | -94,117 | open | — | 04-27 14:40 |
| will iran strike israel on march 6 | 149 | $1.50M | 1,500,000 | 0 | +1,500,000 | open | — | 03-11 23:08 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||