Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$229,808
$875 in 24h
Trades
2,205
Unique wallets
532
Liquidity
$60,505
Latest YES mid
5¢
Latest NO mid
95¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 08-18 19:31
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+0.3¢
(top1%: 5% YES on $5.7K
vs crowd: 5% YES on $131.3K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 22 | $128 | $32.2K | $32.1K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 65 | $1.5K | $55.1K | $53.6K |
| 🐟 Fish | 99 | $1.2K | $11.1K | $9.9K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 346 | $3.7K | $26.4K | $22.7K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 10 | $298 | $5.4K | $5.1K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 32 | $199 | $19.2K | $19.0K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 16 | $3 | $12.3K | $12.3K |
| Median | 98 | $164 | $9.7K | $9.5K |
| Below median | 72 | $1.2K | $1.7K | $431 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 20 | $305 | $650 | $345 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 14 | $78 | $18.2K | $18.1K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 9 | $194 | $3.3K | $3.1K |
| unranked | 261 | $4.0K | $54.5K | $50.5K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jubilant-Aggradation 0x9812…644f | Yes | +14,286 | $1,000 | $1,000 | 1 | 06-01 19:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xa444…89e3 | Yes | +13,973 | $873 | $873 | 4 | 07-20 13:52 |
| Dearest-Operator 0xbfd0…616b | No | +13,480 | $12,806 | $12,806 | 11 | 07-15 09:36 |
| Grounded-Snug 0xbfb3…4b43 | No | +9,717 | $9,030 | $9,408 | 18 | 08-18 14:46 |
| Dull-Dollar 0x9d54…c43d | No | +8,849 | $8,393 | $8,393 | 18 | 08-02 21:11 |
| Flashy-Label 0xed10…d2e5 | No | +5,051 | $4,717 | $4,717 | 4 | 07-20 13:52 |
| Definitive-Mainland-Towel 0x0329…db42 | Yes | +3,739 | $233 | $367 | 4 | 07-20 17:16 |
| Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | No | +3,495 | $3,300 | $3,300 | 37 | 08-10 17:04 |
| Mediocre-Paradise 0xc30c…6509 | No | +2,159 | $2,057 | $2,057 | 5 | 08-12 01:30 |
| Notable-Tin 0xc315…fe18 | No | +2,000 | $1,840 | $5,640 | 16 | 07-18 18:36 |
| (anonymous) 0x8811…5cf4 | Yes | +2,000 | $100 | $100 | 24 | 07-20 18:52 |
| Delirious-Toaster 0x6339…ad29 | Yes | +1,890 | $88 | $88 | 9 | 08-16 06:30 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +1,348 | $22 | $553 | 50 | 08-12 00:41 |
| Virtual-Execution 0x3d14…ee01 | Yes | +1,000 | $60 | $60 | 1 | 07-13 21:56 |
| Questionable-Bafflement 0x55b7…3775 | No | +1,000 | $940 | $940 | 3 | 07-13 21:28 |
| Another-Allowance 0xdafd…5ffb | No | +940 | $902 | $902 | 1 | 08-08 14:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x6ef6…92e4 | Yes | +833 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 07-25 07:13 |
| Lasting-Route 0x61e2…4958 | Yes | +787 | $41 | $41 | 3 | 07-15 09:38 |
| (anonymous) 0x51c1…9771 | Yes | +690 | $37 | $37 | 5 | 08-01 19:36 |
| Afraid-Batting 0x7a10…94bc | Yes | +667 | $40 | $40 | 2 | 07-13 21:12 |
| Spry-Netbook 0xa65c…32fb | No | +550 | $517 | $517 | 6 | 07-09 12:52 |
| Striped-Employ 0x5768…08fd | No | +540 | $502 | $502 | 1 | 06-01 19:26 |
| (anonymous) 0x45bd…af96 | Yes | +516 | $30 | $52 | 4 | 06-24 03:00 |
| Sleepy-Snob 0x4d9e…e3c8 | Yes | +462 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 08-18 08:42 |
| Beneficial-Welcome 0x7144…6624 | Yes | +400 | $13 | $13 | 2 | 08-12 00:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x9d4a…5887 | No | +400 | $378 | $378 | 2 | 07-24 09:01 |
| All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | +392 | $20 | $20 | 2 | 07-31 00:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x18da…91c4 | Yes | +342 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 07-24 14:47 |
| Limited-Spec 0x41c7…0df5 | No | +300 | $281 | $281 | 2 | 06-28 09:45 |
| Keen-Spectacles 0x9fb7…cf03 | Yes | +286 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-02 16:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xdfb5…8bd4 | No | +283 | $182 | $9,790 | 29 | 08-12 11:10 |
| Unrealistic-Lighting 0xc19d…865e | Yes | +242 | $13 | $13 | 3 | 06-06 16:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x28c7…c8d3 | No | +224 | $217 | $217 | 3 | 08-18 19:31 |
| Daring-Mineshaft 0xc4a7…898a | No | +224 | $211 | $877 | 15 | 08-12 00:39 |
| (anonymous) 0xbdf7…65d9 | No | +211 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-16 10:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x1b3f…b538 | No | +205 | $164 | $5,297 | 135 | 08-02 15:09 |
| Variable-Beauty 0x70bc…a453 | No | +200 | $188 | $568 | 22 | 08-12 00:39 |
| Jealous-Bat 0x52e0…89e4 | Yes | +200 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 07-10 13:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xe2a6…f638 | Yes | +200 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-04 05:57 |
| Bogus-Misrepresentation 0xd0bf…9f9f | Yes | +200 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-28 22:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xbbe3…5b92 | Yes | +200 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 08-07 18:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x683d…53ef | Yes | +200 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-21 11:22 |
| Adventurous-Safari 0xcb14…5358 | No | +200 | $190 | $190 | 3 | 08-01 23:13 |
| Inconsequential-Tambour 0x6026…ad50 | No | +200 | $190 | $190 | 1 | 07-22 01:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x0c65…d60d | No | +200 | $190 | $190 | 1 | 08-10 17:04 |
| Conscious-Car 0xf623…bb2c | No | +200 | $189 | $189 | 4 | 07-13 18:15 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +198 | $188 | $188 | 11 | 08-11 22:24 |
| Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4 | Yes | +168 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-15 12:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x0d55…67ea | Yes | +160 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-21 20:14 |
| (anonymous) 0xf96d…4b79 | Yes | +152 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-12 19:46 |
| (anonymous) 0xf677…d115 | Yes | +152 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-17 11:00 |
| Immense-Businessman 0xd0db…b117 | No | +139 | $-21 | $24,147 | 72 | 08-16 06:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xc797…0d48 | Yes | +133 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-14 08:12 |
| Mundane-Screwdriver 0xbecd…f54e | No | +129 | $121 | $121 | 4 | 07-09 12:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x30e5…3ad1 | Yes | +129 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 06-01 17:42 |
| Worried-Poem 0x12b8…479c | No | +127 | $121 | $121 | 4 | 08-12 00:41 |
| Weekly-Exocrine 0x4641…f6fb | Yes | +124 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-11 02:22 |
| Woozy-Blessing 0x7dde…30b1 | No | +120 | $114 | $114 | 2 | 07-20 13:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x0ccf…61a1 | No | +120 | $114 | $114 | 1 | 06-25 23:41 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-18 19:31:15 | (anonymous) 0x1ede…3515 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x80f0e5… |
| 08-18 19:31:15 | (anonymous) 0x28c7…c8d3 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x80f0e5… |
| 08-18 14:46:09 | Grounded-Snug 0xbfb3…4b43 | No | SELL | 29 | 97¢ | $28 | 0xd513d5… |
| 08-18 14:46:09 | Long-Term-Check 0x3a51…b2b6 | Yes | SELL | 29 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xd513d5… |
| 08-18 10:15:13 | Unlucky-Mezzanine 0x6a2f…7105 | No | SELL | 33 | 97¢ | $32 | 0x4f4a27… |
| 08-18 10:15:13 | (anonymous) 0xcedd…3ddf | Yes | SELL | 200 | 3¢ | $6 | 0x4f4a27… |
| 08-18 10:15:13 | Grounded-Snug 0xbfb3…4b43 | No | SELL | 167 | 97¢ | $162 | 0x4f4a27… |
| 08-18 09:42:04 | (anonymous) 0x28c7…c8d3 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x5f771d… |
| 08-18 09:42:04 | Attentive-Earring 0x2e3e…2ac9 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x5f771d… |
| 08-18 08:42:06 | Sleepy-Snob 0x4d9e…e3c8 | Yes | BUY | 294 | 3¢ | $10 | 0x961eca… |
| 08-18 08:42:06 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | SELL | 72 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x961eca… |
| 08-18 08:42:06 | (anonymous) 0x28c7…c8d3 | No | BUY | 222 | 97¢ | $215 | 0x961eca… |
| 08-17 20:00:28 | Strident-Export 0x35e3…9188 | No | SELL | 6 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xd46c77… |
| 08-17 20:00:28 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | SELL | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xd46c77… |
| 08-17 13:26:39 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | SELL | 1,100 | 3¢ | $37 | 0xd181f4… |
| 08-17 13:26:39 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xd181f4… |
| 08-17 13:26:39 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 79 | 3¢ | $3 | 0xd181f4… |
| 08-17 13:26:39 | (anonymous) 0x81f9…4451 | No | SELL | 1,200 | 97¢ | $1,159 | 0xd181f4… |
| 08-17 11:00:33 | (anonymous) 0xf677…d115 | Yes | BUY | 152 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x373c8f… |
| 08-17 11:00:33 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x373c8f… |
| 08-17 11:00:33 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 121 | 3¢ | $4 | 0x373c8f… |
| 08-16 20:00:19 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9b48d4… |
| 08-16 20:00:19 | Strident-Export 0x35e3…9188 | No | SELL | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0x9b48d4… |
| 08-16 06:30:21 | Immense-Businessman 0xd0db…b117 | No | SELL | 249 | 97¢ | $241 | 0x3bb278… |
| 08-16 06:30:21 | Delirious-Toaster 0x6339…ad29 | Yes | BUY | 360 | 3¢ | $12 | 0x3bb278… |
| 08-16 06:30:21 | (anonymous) 0x88f6…dfd6 | Yes | SELL | 608 | 3¢ | $19 | 0x3bb278… |
| 08-15 22:45:58 | (anonymous) 0x3818…aacd | No | BUY | 30 | 97¢ | $29 | 0x502fda… |
| 08-15 22:45:58 | Delirious-Toaster 0x6339…ad29 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x502fda… |
| 08-15 20:00:10 | (anonymous) 0x3818…aacd | No | BUY | 23 | 97¢ | $22 | 0xb6123c… |
| 08-15 20:00:10 | Strident-Export 0x35e3…9188 | No | SELL | 23 | 97¢ | $22 | 0xb6123c… |
| 08-15 12:45:45 | (anonymous) 0xa8e2…ea1e | No | SELL | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0x4f5e7c… |
| 08-15 12:45:45 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x4f5e7c… |
| 08-15 04:03:12 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x93b02f… |
| 08-15 04:03:12 | (anonymous) 0x5160…5316 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x93b02f… |
| 08-15 03:32:57 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | SELL | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x757727… |
| 08-15 03:32:57 | (anonymous) 0x5160…5316 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x757727… |
| 08-14 20:00:31 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 46 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x94363f… |
| 08-14 20:00:31 | Strident-Export 0x35e3…9188 | No | SELL | 46 | 97¢ | $44 | 0x94363f… |
| 08-14 13:01:58 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 56 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xbadf24… |
| 08-14 13:01:58 | Competent-Fantasy 0xc8a5…82bd | No | BUY | 56 | 97¢ | $54 | 0xbadf24… |
| 08-13 16:10:33 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | SELL | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x342dd4… |
| 08-13 16:10:33 | (anonymous) 0x31b2…1f93 | No | SELL | 6 | 97¢ | $6 | 0x342dd4… |
| 08-13 11:43:27 | Metallic-Cup 0x72b5…8b54 | No | SELL | 27 | 97¢ | $26 | 0x82139c… |
| 08-13 11:43:27 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | SELL | 27 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x82139c… |
| 08-13 00:40:24 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | SELL | 2 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x827423… |
| 08-13 00:40:24 | Wrong-Viscose 0x3594…2599 | No | SELL | 2 | 97¢ | $2 | 0x827423… |
| 08-13 00:06:49 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 44 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xd63512… |
| 08-13 00:06:49 | Wrong-Viscose 0x3594…2599 | No | BUY | 44 | 97¢ | $43 | 0xd63512… |
| 08-12 21:52:39 | Wrong-Viscose 0x3594…2599 | No | SELL | 44 | 97¢ | $43 | 0x9d3758… |
| 08-12 21:52:39 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | SELL | 44 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x9d3758… |
| 08-12 21:46:12 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 44 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x0155df… |
| 08-12 21:46:12 | Wrong-Viscose 0x3594…2599 | No | BUY | 44 | 97¢ | $43 | 0x0155df… |
| 08-12 21:27:58 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xd3128e… |
| 08-12 21:27:58 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | SELL | 22 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xd3128e… |
| 08-12 21:27:58 | Wrong-Viscose 0x3594…2599 | No | SELL | 42 | 97¢ | $41 | 0xd3128e… |
| 08-12 20:22:49 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 59 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xffac89… |
| 08-12 20:22:49 | Affectionate-Solitaire 0xca97…5409 | No | SELL | 59 | 97¢ | $57 | 0xffac89… |
| 08-12 20:00:31 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 182 | 3¢ | $6 | 0x806d5a… |
| 08-12 20:00:31 | Strident-Export 0x35e3…9188 | No | SELL | 182 | 97¢ | $176 | 0x806d5a… |
| 08-12 19:46:18 | Foolish-Clipper 0xa14d…fcec | No | BUY | 28 | 97¢ | $27 | 0x4ba33c… |
| 08-12 19:46:18 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 124 | 3¢ | $4 | 0x4ba33c… |
| 08-12 19:46:18 | (anonymous) 0xf96d…4b79 | Yes | BUY | 152 | 3¢ | $5 | 0x4ba33c… |
| 08-12 19:37:16 | (anonymous) 0xb1e2…666d | Yes | SELL | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xa99d60… |
| 08-12 19:37:16 | Humongous-Maybe 0xc5bd…ceaa | No | SELL | 102 | 97¢ | $99 | 0xa99d60… |
| 08-12 19:37:16 | (anonymous) 0x945a…a48c | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0xa99d60… |
| 08-12 19:37:16 | Foolish-Clipper 0xa14d…fcec | No | BUY | 72 | 97¢ | $70 | 0xa99d60… |
| 08-12 11:10:51 | (anonymous) 0xb1e2…666d | Yes | BUY | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x60df52… |
| 08-12 11:10:51 | (anonymous) 0xdfb5…8bd4 | No | SELL | 161 | 97¢ | $156 | 0x60df52… |
| 08-12 11:10:51 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | BUY | 1,500 | 3¢ | $46 | 0x60df52… |
| 08-12 11:10:51 | (anonymous) 0x6352…f719 | Yes | SELL | 1,667 | 3¢ | $52 | 0x60df52… |
| 08-12 06:20:40 | (anonymous) 0xb1e2…666d | Yes | SELL | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x65c7e5… |
| 08-12 06:20:40 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | SELL | 6 | 97¢ | $6 | 0x65c7e5… |
| 08-12 06:03:45 | (anonymous) 0xd369…b396 | No | BUY | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x90a874… |
| 08-12 06:03:45 | (anonymous) 0xb1e2…666d | Yes | BUY | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x90a874… |
| 08-12 05:38:09 | Impressionable-Set 0xd6c2…a53d | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xb57263… |
| 08-12 05:38:09 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb57263… |
| 08-12 01:30:01 | (anonymous) 0x5923…49cd | No | SELL | 22 | 97¢ | $22 | 0x89960b… |
| 08-12 01:30:01 | Mediocre-Paradise 0xc30c…6509 | No | BUY | 409 | 97¢ | $397 | 0x89960b… |
| 08-12 01:30:01 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 387 | 3¢ | $12 | 0x89960b… |
| 08-12 00:41:54 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 357 | 4¢ | $14 | 0x7fbcc7… |
| 08-12 00:41:54 | Worried-Poem 0x12b8…479c | No | BUY | 13 | 95¢ | $12 | 0x7fbcc7… |
| 08-12 00:41:54 | Juvenile-Jicama 0xd53e…0b73 | No | SELL | 369 | 96¢ | $355 | 0x7fbcc7… |
| 08-12 00:41:33 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 8 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x1e3cfd… |
| 08-12 00:41:33 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | SELL | 8 | 96¢ | $7 | 0x1e3cfd… |
| 08-12 00:40:18 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 85 | 4¢ | $3 | 0xe21db2… |
| 08-12 00:40:18 | Humongous-Maybe 0xc5bd…ceaa | No | SELL | 85 | 96¢ | $82 | 0xe21db2… |
| 08-12 00:40:10 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | SELL | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x2b0307… |
| 08-12 00:40:10 | Worried-Poem 0x12b8…479c | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x2b0307… |
| 08-12 00:40:09 | Worried-Poem 0x12b8…479c | No | BUY | 30 | 95¢ | $28 | 0x5d0113… |
| 08-12 00:40:09 | Affectionate-Solitaire 0xca97…5409 | No | SELL | 30 | 95¢ | $28 | 0x5d0113… |
| 08-12 00:39:58 | Worried-Poem 0x12b8…479c | No | BUY | 82 | 95¢ | $78 | 0xe0ae64… |
| 08-12 00:39:58 | (anonymous) 0x2324…6992 | No | BUY | 40 | 95¢ | $38 | 0xe0ae64… |
| 08-12 00:39:58 | Humongous-Maybe 0xc5bd…ceaa | No | SELL | 122 | 95¢ | $116 | 0xe0ae64… |
| 08-12 00:39:51 | (anonymous) 0x2324…6992 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xf881d4… |
| 08-12 00:39:51 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xf881d4… |
| 08-12 00:39:51 | Affectionate-Solitaire 0xca97…5409 | No | SELL | 35 | 95¢ | $33 | 0x5a152e… |
| 08-12 00:39:51 | Limp-Attraction 0x9d06…c4e8 | No | SELL | 3 | 95¢ | $3 | 0xdefbd6… |
| 08-12 00:39:51 | Variable-Beauty 0x70bc…a453 | No | BUY | 27 | 95¢ | $26 | 0x5a152e… |
| 08-12 00:39:51 | (anonymous) 0x2324…6992 | No | BUY | 3 | 95¢ | $3 | 0xdefbd6… |
| 08-12 00:39:51 | (anonymous) 0x2324…6992 | No | BUY | 8 | 95¢ | $7 | 0x5a152e… |