Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$35,404
$875 in 24h
Trades
326
Unique wallets
129
Liquidity
$60,505
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-17 09:17
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+91.3¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $90
vs crowd: 9% YES on $22.2K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $12 | $2.8K | $2.8K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 23 | $1.2K | $15.7K | $14.5K |
| 🐟 Fish | 30 | $160 | $1.4K | $1.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 71 | $595 | $300 | +$295 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $90 | — | +$90 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 15 | $87 | $3.9K | $3.8K |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $1 | $3.2K | $3.2K |
| Median | 21 | $1 | $868 | $867 |
| Below median | 25 | $1.0K | $507 | +$537 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 6 | $6 | $9.2K | $9.2K |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $90 | — | +$90 |
| unranked | 46 | $619 | $2.6K | $2.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jubilant-Aggradation 0x9812…644f | Yes | +14,286 | $1,000 | $1,000 | 1 | 06-01 19:26 |
| Grounded-Snug 0xbfb3…4b43 | No | +9,913 | $9,219 | $9,219 | 16 | 06-03 09:13 |
| Immense-Businessman 0xd0db…b117 | No | +1,989 | $1,850 | $1,850 | 32 | 06-06 16:01 |
| Conventional-Interviewer 0xc208…bf1d | Yes | +1,667 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-07 19:40 |
| Notable-Tin 0xc315…fe18 | No | +1,000 | $910 | $2,810 | 11 | 06-11 05:05 |
| Cluttered-Con 0x797a…9cf2 | Yes | +1,000 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-06 16:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | +829 | $755 | $5,505 | 22 | 06-17 09:17 |
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +718 | $31 | $148 | 12 | 06-16 11:47 |
| Striped-Employ 0x5768…08fd | No | +540 | $502 | $502 | 1 | 06-01 19:26 |
| Foolish-Clipper 0xa14d…fcec | No | +400 | $370 | $746 | 3 | 06-06 16:01 |
| Keen-Spectacles 0x9fb7…cf03 | Yes | +286 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-02 16:04 |
| Unrealistic-Lighting 0xc19d…865e | Yes | +242 | $13 | $13 | 3 | 06-06 16:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xbdf7…65d9 | No | +211 | $200 | $200 | 1 | 06-16 10:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xe2a6…f638 | Yes | +200 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 06-04 05:57 |
| Delirious-Toaster 0x6339…ad29 | Yes | +200 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 06-11 05:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xef38…adc9 | No | +200 | $188 | $188 | 1 | 06-06 16:01 |
| (anonymous) 0x874b…4af0 | No | +191 | $181 | $181 | 1 | 06-10 14:35 |
| Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | +130 | $4 | $176 | 12 | 06-07 16:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x30e5…3ad1 | Yes | +129 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 06-01 17:42 |
| Weekly-Exocrine 0x4641…f6fb | Yes | +124 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-11 02:22 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +100 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-01 15:21 |
| Limited-Spec 0x41c7…0df5 | No | +100 | $93 | $93 | 1 | 06-03 09:13 |
| Deadly-Cofactor 0x4e23…d084 | Yes | +83 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-07 21:34 |
| Comfortable-Chromolithograph 0x633e…9a04 | Yes | +83 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-10 14:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x19bb…e7b1 | No | +54 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 06-06 19:28 |
| High-Level-Angstrom 0xfd52…f84d | Yes | +50 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 06-07 21:43 |
| Red-Girlfriend 0x7b64…8440 | No | +37 | $35 | $40 | 2 | 06-04 07:15 |
| (anonymous) 0xeb3c…9e01 | Yes | +32 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-01 06:05 |
| Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | +31 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-01 15:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x56d4…0042 | No | +21 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-07 19:20 |
| Powerless-Pig 0x3dab…e5d0 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 06-05 09:43 |
| Purple-Ignorance 0x2856…fe07 | No | +19 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 05-30 14:11 |
| Upset-Stack 0xe375…b335 | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-12 20:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x8091…064f | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-13 08:48 |
| Sunny-Icon 0xd530…725c | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-30 18:26 |
| Flaky-Senator 0xad65…8c6b | Yes | +14 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-03 04:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x5923…49cd | No | +13 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 06-16 11:47 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +7 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 06-03 22:54 |
| Icky-Reparation 0x25c3…d277 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-01 13:19 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 09:17:38 | (anonymous) 0x308f…a797 | No | SELL | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9b3950… |
| 06-17 09:17:38 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0x9b3950… |
| 06-16 13:59:56 | Rich-Carotene 0xeb75…27a3 | No | SELL | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0xa2b1aa… |
| 06-16 13:59:56 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0xa2b1aa… |
| 06-16 11:47:46 | (anonymous) 0x5923…49cd | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x4d0f1b… |
| 06-16 11:47:46 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x4d0f1b… |
| 06-16 10:52:12 | (anonymous) 0xbdf7…65d9 | No | BUY | 211 | 95¢ | $200 | 0xc35bb8… |
| 06-16 10:52:12 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 211 | 5¢ | $11 | 0xc35bb8… |
| 06-16 10:37:39 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x746dcd… |
| 06-16 10:37:39 | (anonymous) 0x5923…49cd | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x746dcd… |
| 06-16 04:12:07 | (anonymous) 0xc8df…3774 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x86f600… |
| 06-16 04:12:07 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 45 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x86f600… |
| 06-15 08:52:21 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xcd3e0f… |
| 06-15 08:52:21 | Muted-Handlebar 0xd084…27ea | Yes | SELL | 82 | 5¢ | $4 | 0xcd3e0f… |
| 06-15 08:52:21 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | BUY | 81 | 5¢ | $4 | 0xcd3e0f… |
| 06-14 22:49:15 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | BUY | 111 | 5¢ | $6 | 0x39d13d… |
| 06-14 22:49:15 | (anonymous) 0x0550…c0f3 | Yes | SELL | 111 | 5¢ | $6 | 0x39d13d… |
| 06-13 11:41:25 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x3290cf… |
| 06-13 11:41:25 | Dishonest-Solicitation 0xaab3…e7a5 | No | SELL | 2 | 94¢ | $2 | 0x3290cf… |
| 06-13 10:51:22 | Cheerful-Voice 0xbc0c…ea01 | Yes | SELL | 233 | 5¢ | $12 | 0xfd463c… |
| 06-13 10:51:22 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | BUY | 233 | 5¢ | $12 | 0xfd463c… |
| 06-13 08:48:15 | (anonymous) 0x8091…064f | Yes | BUY | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xdeb7dc… |
| 06-13 08:48:15 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 17 | 94¢ | $16 | 0xdeb7dc… |
| 06-12 20:35:31 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 17 | 94¢ | $16 | 0xdce245… |
| 06-12 20:35:31 | Upset-Stack 0xe375…b335 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xdce245… |
| 06-12 10:41:03 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | BUY | 150 | 5¢ | $8 | 0x643e96… |
| 06-12 10:41:03 | Complicated-Nexus 0x2b25…97f9 | Yes | SELL | 150 | 5¢ | $8 | 0x643e96… |
| 06-12 00:54:01 | Euphoric-Headline 0x377d…dddd | No | SELL | 19 | 94¢ | $18 | 0x7d411a… |
| 06-12 00:54:01 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 19 | 94¢ | $18 | 0x7d411a… |
| 06-11 05:07:42 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x3ecd64… |
| 06-11 05:07:42 | Delirious-Toaster 0x6339…ad29 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x3ecd64… |
| 06-11 05:05:07 | Capital-Sari 0xbefa…300d | Yes | BUY | 35 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x9ccd40… |
| 06-11 05:05:07 | Notable-Tin 0xc315…fe18 | No | SELL | 65 | 95¢ | $62 | 0x9ccd40… |
| 06-11 05:05:07 | Basic-Chin 0x4a5c…48b6 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x9ccd40… |
| 06-11 02:22:16 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 124 | 94¢ | $117 | 0x291763… |
| 06-11 02:22:16 | Weekly-Exocrine 0x4641…f6fb | Yes | BUY | 124 | 6¢ | $7 | 0x291763… |
| 06-10 21:33:57 | Complicated-Nexus 0x2b25…97f9 | Yes | BUY | 150 | 6¢ | $9 | 0x2b1258… |
| 06-10 21:33:57 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 150 | 94¢ | $141 | 0x2b1258… |
| 06-10 18:57:39 | (anonymous) 0x6e56…92a1 | Yes | SELL | 111 | 5¢ | $6 | 0xd6c736… |
| 06-10 18:57:39 | Notable-Tin 0xc315…fe18 | No | SELL | 111 | 95¢ | $106 | 0xd6c736… |
| 06-10 14:35:25 | Notable-Tin 0xc315…fe18 | No | SELL | 191 | 95¢ | $181 | 0x3238a6… |
| 06-10 14:35:25 | (anonymous) 0x874b…4af0 | No | BUY | 191 | 95¢ | $181 | 0x3238a6… |
| 06-10 14:15:51 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 83 | 94¢ | $78 | 0xc1855e… |
| 06-10 14:15:51 | Comfortable-Chromolithograph 0x633e…9a04 | Yes | BUY | 83 | 6¢ | $5 | 0xc1855e… |
| 06-10 13:35:48 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x4f3389… |
| 06-10 13:35:48 | Delirious-Toaster 0x6339…ad29 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x4f3389… |
| 06-10 04:56:33 | (anonymous) 0x6ea6…e1a6 | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x594d27… |
| 06-10 04:56:33 | Notable-Tin 0xc315…fe18 | No | SELL | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x594d27… |
| 06-09 16:51:51 | Basic-Chin 0x4a5c…48b6 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x2d999c… |
| 06-09 16:51:51 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0x2d999c… |
| 06-08 20:06:21 | Notable-Tin 0xc315…fe18 | No | SELL | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xb55cc3… |
| 06-08 20:06:21 | Live-Copying 0xfc48…1349 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xb55cc3… |
| 06-08 12:25:46 | (anonymous) 0x8422…69f7 | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x55c4a0… |
| 06-08 12:25:46 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x55c4a0… |
| 06-08 12:24:46 | Flamboyant-Snug 0xf394…78dc | Yes | SELL | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x67ddc3… |
| 06-08 12:24:46 | Notable-Tin 0xc315…fe18 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x67ddc3… |
| 06-07 21:43:00 | High-Level-Angstrom 0xfd52…f84d | Yes | BUY | 50 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x6c0bf4… |
| 06-07 21:43:00 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 50 | 94¢ | $47 | 0x6c0bf4… |
| 06-07 21:34:46 | Deadly-Cofactor 0x4e23…d084 | Yes | BUY | 83 | 6¢ | $5 | 0x08b219… |
| 06-07 21:34:46 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 83 | 94¢ | $78 | 0x08b219… |
| 06-07 20:37:57 | Notable-Tin 0xc315…fe18 | No | SELL | 582 | 95¢ | $553 | 0x566290… |
| 06-07 20:37:57 | (anonymous) 0x525f…b707 | Yes | SELL | 582 | 5¢ | $29 | 0x566290… |
| 06-07 20:02:52 | (anonymous) 0x01c3…6da6 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xbc3a83… |
| 06-07 20:02:52 | Notable-Tin 0xc315…fe18 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xbc3a83… |
| 06-07 19:40:40 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | BUY | 1,468 | 94¢ | $1,380 | 0xa312f8… |
| 06-07 19:40:40 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 199 | 6¢ | $12 | 0xa312f8… |
| 06-07 19:40:40 | Conventional-Interviewer 0xc208…bf1d | Yes | BUY | 1,667 | 6¢ | $100 | 0xa312f8… |
| 06-07 19:20:12 | (anonymous) 0x56d4…0042 | No | BUY | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0x4119bb… |
| 06-07 19:20:12 | Notable-Tin 0xc315…fe18 | No | SELL | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0x4119bb… |
| 06-07 19:10:51 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 233 | 6¢ | $14 | 0x89951f… |
| 06-07 19:10:51 | Cheerful-Voice 0xbc0c…ea01 | Yes | BUY | 233 | 6¢ | $14 | 0x89951f… |
| 06-07 16:00:19 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x6a0460… |
| 06-07 16:00:19 | Unkempt-Statement 0x2687…9a43 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x6a0460… |
| 06-07 02:30:06 | Grubby-Participation 0x9972…a4e8 | Yes | SELL | 86 | 5¢ | $4 | 0xd7d87c… |
| 06-07 02:30:06 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | BUY | 86 | 5¢ | $4 | 0xd7d87c… |
| 06-06 19:28:16 | (anonymous) 0x19bb…e7b1 | No | BUY | 54 | 95¢ | $51 | 0x087c6b… |
| 06-06 19:28:16 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | BUY | 54 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x087c6b… |
| 06-06 18:44:25 | Failing-Wedding 0xb8a4…a13b | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x3ac4d0… |
| 06-06 18:44:25 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | SELL | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x3ac4d0… |
| 06-06 18:44:25 | Breakable-Stepsister 0xe23b…f147 | Yes | BUY | 84 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x3ac4d0… |
| 06-06 18:44:25 | Immense-Roast 0x40d6…d9d2 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x3ac4d0… |
| 06-06 17:25:07 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 17 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x757727… |
| 06-06 17:25:07 | Thrifty-Representative 0x9dd4…a038 | No | SELL | 17 | 94¢ | $16 | 0x757727… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | (anonymous) 0x95ef…ed62 | No | SELL | 53 | 95¢ | $50 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | (anonymous) 0xd5a7…6fe2 | No | SELL | 51 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | Cluttered-Con 0x797a…9cf2 | Yes | BUY | 1,000 | 5¢ | $50 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | (anonymous) 0x559a…2107 | No | SELL | 51 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | (anonymous) 0xfca0…b8dd | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | (anonymous) 0x9fdb…d222 | No | SELL | 51 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | (anonymous) 0xaab1…ce4a | No | SELL | 51 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | (anonymous) 0x9d7d…4f6d | No | SELL | 2,489 | 95¢ | $2,365 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | (anonymous) 0x807c…e9ca | No | SELL | 51 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | Unrealistic-Lighting 0xc19d…865e | Yes | BUY | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | (anonymous) 0xa206…f666 | Yes | SELL | 5,510 | 5¢ | $275 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | (anonymous) 0x5f61…9b4c | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $47 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 449 | 5¢ | $22 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | (anonymous) 0xb421…8291 | No | SELL | 38 | 95¢ | $36 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:03:01 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 1,026 | 95¢ | $974 | 0x3bb39d… |
| 06-06 16:01:52 | Worthwhile-Sock 0x682c…17ae | Yes | BUY | 109 | 6¢ | $7 | 0x49c54b… |
| 06-06 16:01:52 | (anonymous) 0xa206…f666 | Yes | SELL | 559 | 6¢ | $34 | 0x49c54b… |