Questionable-Bafflement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64

Unrealized P&L

+$110

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,108

lifetime

Volume

$541.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$489

Open exposure

$6.03K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 07-21 22:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

51% — —

Other

42% 100% +$64

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	+2,074	$1,985	98¢	$2.0K	+$39	07-10 14:09
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-1,000	$-948	97¢	$-967	$-19	06-10 17:31
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,000	$940	95¢	$950	+$10	07-13 21:28
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+1,000	$925	92¢	$925	+$0	07-16 15:21
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+625	$522	96¢	$600	+$78	07-03 20:31
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	+400	$383	96¢	$383	$-0	07-21 15:44
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	No	+200	$180	92¢	$183	+$3	07-12 18:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	86	$59.5K	33,255	27,755	+5,500	open	—	03-04 18:47
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	15	$49.3K	32,186	17,290	+14,896	open	—	01-28 18:42
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$18.1K	9,692	8,692	+1,000	open	—	03-04 16:26
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$15.4K	15,500	0	+15,500	open	—	06-03 13:23
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	3	$14.4K	14,515	0	+14,515	open	—	02-05 02:54
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	21	$11.7K	10,409	2,602	+7,807	open	—	01-31 10:45
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	15	$11.1K	10,500	1,000	+9,500	open	—	03-06 15:42
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	17	$10.6K	10,799	0	+10,799	open	—	02-02 20:07
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	4	$9.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	02-02 03:40
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	21	$9.9K	7,000	3,400	+3,600	open	—	03-22 17:19
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	10	$8.9K	5,000	4,200	+800	open	—	05-11 20:05
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	5	$8.4K	8,400	0	+8,400	Yes	+$29	05-02 21:00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	6	$7.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	06-24 22:48
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	9	$7.5K	7,696	0	+7,696	open	—	02-23 17:39
us strikes iran by january 29 2026 183 883 657 383 499	6	$7.2K	4,416	2,915	+1,501	open	—	01-30 00:27
netanyahu out by march 31 854	16	$7.2K	5,937	1,485	+4,452	open	—	03-23 14:29
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	3	$7.0K	7,000	0	+7,000	open	—	02-07 00:21
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	7	$6.2K	6,246	0	+6,246	open	—	03-11 19:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$6.0K	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	07-04 19:46
Trump out as President by June 30?	3	$6.0K	4,000	2,000	+2,000	open	—	06-29 15:12
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	117	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	-0	open	—	04-28 04:19
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	11	$5.6K	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	07-12 23:42
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	4	$5.5K	5,464	0	+5,464	open	—	04-30 21:48
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	10	$5.3K	5,600	0	+5,600	open	—	01-30 21:33
will claude 5 be released by march 15 2026	38	$5.1K	2,358	2,855	-497	open	—	03-11 08:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	04-06 09:23
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	23	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	07-14 09:39
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$4.9K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	04-30 21:46
will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	20	$4.7K	3,821	912	+2,909	open	—	07-09 19:57
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$4.5K	4,500	0	+4,500	open	—	04-08 17:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 22:01:09	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xb075f2…
07-21 19:41:24	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xc1f516…
07-21 19:40:45	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x26d4ab…
07-21 15:44:51	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	82	95¢	$78	0xb11ae3…
07-21 02:56:13	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	93¢	$930	0x1f7119…
07-21 02:24:06	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	90	95¢	$86	0xce2468…
07-20 17:22:52	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$992	0xde3fb4…
07-20 16:04:48	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x4308db…
07-20 13:08:55	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x3fb7c3…
07-20 10:05:33	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	400	87¢	$348	0x079045…
07-20 08:46:39	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	95¢	$26	0xc1e2af…
07-19 16:02:46	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x513ea8…
07-18 23:18:43	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0xbd7021…
07-18 19:26:06	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x7033ea…
07-18 18:44:48	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x256ded…
07-18 18:43:12	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xecdae9…
07-18 17:10:43	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x835d78…
07-17 23:21:19	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x3a1990…
07-16 19:03:41	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x421f47…
07-16 15:21:10	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0xd83fc0…
07-16 14:30:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xed62ab…
07-15 23:19:11	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0xd5334a…
07-15 19:39:01	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x23754f…
07-15 14:27:56	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xac4b1c…
07-15 14:26:04	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0xd88534…
07-14 21:47:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x3b8cb3…
07-14 09:39:49	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$993	0x1be201…
07-14 08:28:11	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	354	88¢	$312	0xc44a1a…
07-13 21:28:04	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	437	94¢	$411	0x9e1245…
07-13 21:12:10	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0x5564b2…
07-13 19:06:43	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	94¢	$59	0x17f046…
07-13 17:20:58	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	58	96¢	$56	0xad6df4…
07-13 16:17:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	4,000	100¢	$3,988	0x791ca3…
07-13 16:02:23	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	311	93¢	$289	0x03612d…
07-13 14:43:16	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	75	96¢	$72	0xc11cd2…
07-13 14:07:13	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	67	96¢	$64	0x3f697c…
07-12 23:42:41	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	964	99¢	$949	0x67234c…
07-12 22:41:07	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x3061bc…
07-12 21:58:56	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xcb3743…
07-12 19:37:11	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	19	98¢	$19	0xc7c123…
07-12 18:04:50	Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xe543a4…
07-12 11:45:52	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	189	93¢	$176	0x277e1f…
07-11 13:52:02	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$951	0x2143b2…
07-11 07:43:32	jd vance out as vp by july 31 20260626154902197	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x23dd9b…
07-10 23:57:38	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0xa7a064…
07-10 19:28:46	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	250	99¢	$248	0xc87f48…
07-10 18:16:58	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	130	99¢	$129	0xb0df6f…
07-10 17:47:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x14b682…
07-10 17:13:43	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	1,000	97¢	$971	0x8d07e1…
07-10 16:02:47	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x3edd52…
07-10 14:55:16	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$963	0x4ca169…
07-10 14:09:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	800	96¢	$770	0x3c8f3b…
07-10 13:32:05	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	46	88¢	$40	0x6241b7…
07-10 13:27:44	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	900	98¢	$879	0x650af8…
07-09 23:13:01	jd vance out as vp by december 31	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x7f820e…
07-09 19:57:23	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	607	99¢	$603	0x79b3dc…
07-09 19:48:58	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0xa81939…
07-09 19:47:59	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	962	99¢	$956	0x0485cd…
07-09 18:48:43	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0xcc93b2…
07-09 16:45:44	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x2955e1…
07-09 15:37:14	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$993	0xee8083…
07-09 14:12:31	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0x21c34e…
07-09 14:09:17	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x75c3a8…
07-09 13:22:46	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	104	99¢	$104	0x85fdcc…
07-09 13:08:01	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xb6bbf1…
07-08 21:26:55	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0x7fbda1…
07-08 14:59:50	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	400	97¢	$389	0xb03e10…
07-08 14:46:40	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	133	99¢	$132	0xb0c7d7…
07-08 14:23:11	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	209	99¢	$207	0xf3e67c…
07-08 14:15:34	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	BUY	970	99¢	$963	0x33417a…
07-07 06:21:58	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0x4620ba…
07-07 04:10:58	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x67b046…
07-06 22:34:07	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0xcc3b26…
07-06 21:27:41	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0xfae3c0…
07-06 21:25:50	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x3699ec…
07-06 21:03:11	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x18a8d4…
07-06 20:48:31	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x02a955…
07-06 20:46:50	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xc9099a…
07-06 20:45:38	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdb8104…
07-06 20:21:26	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	BUY	967	99¢	$960	0xb4daa6…
07-05 22:32:07	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	500	97¢	$486	0xbfb89b…
07-05 15:28:59	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	912	99¢	$904	0xc61c2a…
07-04 21:10:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	91	95¢	$87	0xf5e629…
07-04 20:38:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	95	95¢	$90	0xfeeeb5…
07-04 20:35:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	133	95¢	$126	0xbd40eb…
07-04 19:47:13	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	85	95¢	$81	0x73c354…
07-04 19:46:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0xed3db2…
07-04 19:09:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	597	95¢	$569	0xe6d615…
07-04 17:50:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	274	96¢	$262	0x038012…
07-04 17:48:22	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	255	98¢	$249	0xd70e3b…
07-04 17:48:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0xa0f723…
07-03 22:00:16	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	732	100¢	$730	0x3660db…
07-03 21:43:20	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	268	100¢	$267	0xc524b2…
07-03 20:31:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	195	97¢	$189	0x266b6e…
07-03 20:31:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xa9d870…
07-03 20:26:05	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x394e4b…
07-03 20:25:41	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xd1c942…
07-03 20:25:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x9c4ed5…
07-03 20:22:28	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x215dd4…
07-03 20:20:11	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x3701d4…