Questionable-Bafflement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64

Unrealized P&L

+$58

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

947

lifetime

Volume

$489.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$517

Open exposure

$5.36K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 06-29 15:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

52% — —

Other

41% 100% +$64

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 119 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+2,500	$2,331	95¢	$2.4K	+$47	06-18 15:43
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+2,020	$1,993	100¢	$2.0K	+$25	06-29 15:29
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	-1,000	$-948	96¢	$-962	$-14	06-10 17:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	86	$59.5K	33,255	27,755	+5,500	open	—	03-04 18:47
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	15	$49.3K	32,186	17,290	+14,896	open	—	01-28 18:42
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$18.1K	9,692	8,692	+1,000	open	—	03-04 16:26
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$15.4K	15,500	0	+15,500	open	—	06-03 13:23
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	3	$14.4K	14,515	0	+14,515	open	—	02-05 02:54
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	21	$11.7K	10,409	2,602	+7,807	open	—	01-31 10:45
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	15	$11.1K	10,500	1,000	+9,500	open	—	03-06 15:42
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	17	$10.6K	10,799	0	+10,799	open	—	02-02 20:07
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	4	$9.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	02-02 03:40
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	21	$9.9K	7,000	3,400	+3,600	open	—	03-22 17:19
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	10	$8.9K	5,000	4,200	+800	open	—	05-11 20:05
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	5	$8.4K	8,400	0	+8,400	Yes	+$29	05-02 21:00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	6	$7.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	06-24 22:48
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	9	$7.5K	7,696	0	+7,696	open	—	02-23 17:39
us strikes iran by january 29 2026 183 883 657 383 499	6	$7.2K	4,416	2,915	+1,501	open	—	01-30 00:27
netanyahu out by march 31 854	16	$7.2K	5,937	1,485	+4,452	open	—	03-23 14:29
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	3	$7.0K	7,000	0	+7,000	open	—	02-07 00:21
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	7	$6.2K	6,246	0	+6,246	open	—	03-11 19:08
Trump out as President by June 30?	3	$6.0K	4,000	2,000	+2,000	open	—	06-29 15:12
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	117	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	-0	open	—	04-28 04:19
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	4	$5.5K	5,464	0	+5,464	open	—	04-30 21:48
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	10	$5.3K	5,600	0	+5,600	open	—	01-30 21:33
will claude 5 be released by march 15 2026	38	$5.1K	2,358	2,855	-497	open	—	03-11 08:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	04-06 09:23
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$4.9K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	04-30 21:46
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$4.5K	4,500	0	+4,500	open	—	04-08 17:08
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	4	$4.3K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	02-23 14:17
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	8	$4.3K	4,333	0	+4,333	open	—	06-18 15:15
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	7	$4.0K	4,086	0	+4,086	open	—	05-25 16:13
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	4	$4.0K	4,000	0	+4,000	open	—	06-17 21:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 15:29:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$986	0xb739b4…
06-29 15:28:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	366	99¢	$361	0xe5a214…
06-29 15:13:31	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	654	99¢	$646	0x102700…
06-29 15:12:50	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	2,000	100¢	$1,998	0x6b5e86…
06-26 13:44:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	2,500	100¢	$2,492	0x6e8a99…
06-26 13:35:52	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	100¢	$1,498	0xf0a813…
06-26 13:32:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1,049	100¢	$1,047	0xa01235…
06-26 13:32:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	951	100¢	$949	0x0d123b…
06-26 13:32:07	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0x7090fb…
06-24 22:48:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	4,000	99¢	$3,972	0xaf7268…
06-23 15:57:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$996	0x3cc6ca…
06-23 15:20:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x5a9d53…
06-20 01:02:28	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,990	0xbb54db…
06-19 11:24:07	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	865	99¢	$859	0x0deddc…
06-19 10:51:14	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3ddaa7…
06-19 10:49:10	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xf68b1b…
06-19 08:35:17	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6fba9e…
06-19 04:47:11	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfe9960…
06-19 03:25:10	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x163ba8…
06-19 03:02:20	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	125	100¢	$124	0x467852…
06-19 02:47:25	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd2f38b…
06-19 02:45:02	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x9c5998…
06-19 02:33:59	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x720926…
06-19 02:27:04	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xc048c5…
06-19 02:20:07	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x53b902…
06-19 02:03:47	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x05a713…
06-19 01:59:16	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x09bb63…
06-19 01:58:10	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x84351e…
06-19 01:57:55	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0x605518…
06-19 01:56:11	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf53b9b…
06-19 01:54:55	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x265840…
06-19 01:43:44	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	128	99¢	$128	0x257c51…
06-19 00:26:28	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4b1117…
06-18 23:29:46	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x76633f…
06-18 23:24:32	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x06c04d…
06-18 23:18:08	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x424629…
06-18 23:12:07	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$54	0xe7fd1f…
06-18 23:09:44	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x69f8b3…
06-18 23:09:40	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xafbed9…
06-18 23:03:17	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0xd1dace…
06-18 22:48:26	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7f2354…
06-18 22:48:07	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0xbe3361…
06-18 22:42:41	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0xc5766f…
06-18 22:25:13	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x57ca0b…
06-18 22:04:46	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$96	0xeb94a3…
06-18 21:32:26	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x448b40…
06-18 21:24:01	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	141	100¢	$141	0x264791…
06-18 18:17:22	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xf3a611…
06-18 18:08:50	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x27a799…
06-18 17:52:56	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x641bb1…
06-18 17:32:02	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2bcecd…
06-18 16:44:20	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xf489fe…
06-18 16:43:53	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0dbc3e…
06-18 16:39:32	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x22d5fd…
06-18 16:36:41	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	440	100¢	$438	0xe27496…
06-18 15:43:47	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	500	93¢	$465	0x923c72…
06-18 15:34:25	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2bd2b6…
06-18 15:34:14	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$468	0x47d235…
06-18 15:23:35	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1c9004…
06-18 15:18:28	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3fe176…
06-18 15:18:02	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,500	100¢	$1,494	0x6b4059…
06-18 15:18:01	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x03bf1c…
06-18 15:17:44	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x892794…
06-18 15:17:41	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbf1b45…
06-18 15:17:38	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe96d59…
06-18 15:17:38	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdd9ae2…
06-18 15:17:38	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdc4b94…
06-18 15:17:38	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9fe47b…
06-18 15:17:38	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x721234…
06-18 15:17:38	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x454625…
06-18 15:17:38	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x1c683a…
06-18 15:15:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$994	0xcb60c0…
06-18 15:15:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0xabfe20…
06-18 15:14:20	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xeaad5a…
06-18 15:14:11	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xf4895b…
06-18 15:14:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xcdce64…
06-18 15:14:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x94888e…
06-18 15:14:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7e7beb…
06-18 15:14:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x716d3b…
06-18 15:14:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x58a847…
06-18 15:14:08	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xb5c964…
06-18 15:14:08	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x492761…
06-18 15:13:08	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	969	99¢	$957	0x978a50…
06-18 15:09:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	1,500	99¢	$1,491	0xc8ff6e…
06-18 15:09:11	kharg island no longer under iranian control by june 24	No	BUY	228	100¢	$227	0x39b59f…
06-17 21:34:23	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0xcd281a…
06-17 15:35:50	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xdc9124…
06-17 15:27:23	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xfd5d14…
06-17 14:25:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x24a7fc…
06-16 21:43:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	404	100¢	$403	0x809c2c…
06-16 21:41:38	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	96	100¢	$95	0x56b1b2…
06-16 11:51:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0xc05864…
06-16 10:16:34	New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1c9575…
06-16 08:36:30	New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa96f10…
06-16 00:33:31	New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xcab7f2…
06-15 17:32:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x2ba775…
06-15 17:03:25	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1,500	99¢	$1,482	0x5ca9a2…
06-12 18:02:06	New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?	No	BUY	116	100¢	$115	0x133a64…
06-11 13:09:28	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x96bf01…
06-10 21:04:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$991	0x018ac9…