Questionable-Bafflement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$64

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,163

lifetime

Volume

$559.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$481

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-28

last 08-10 20:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

51% — —

Other

42% 100% +$64

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	86	$59.5K	33,255	27,755	+5,500	open	—	03-04 18:47
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	15	$49.3K	32,186	17,290	+14,896	open	—	01-28 18:42
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$18.1K	9,692	8,692	+1,000	open	—	03-04 16:26
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$15.4K	15,500	0	+15,500	open	—	06-03 13:23
us strikes iran by february 4 2026	3	$14.4K	14,515	0	+14,515	open	—	02-05 02:54
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	21	$11.7K	10,409	2,602	+7,807	open	—	01-31 10:45
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	15	$11.1K	10,500	1,000	+9,500	open	—	03-06 15:42
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	17	$10.6K	10,799	0	+10,799	open	—	02-02 20:07
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	4	$9.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	02-02 03:40
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	21	$9.9K	7,000	3,400	+3,600	open	—	03-22 17:19
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	10	$8.9K	5,000	4,200	+800	open	—	05-11 20:05
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	5	$8.4K	8,400	0	+8,400	Yes	+$29	05-02 21:00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	6	$7.9K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	06-24 22:48
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	9	$7.5K	7,696	0	+7,696	open	—	02-23 17:39
us strikes iran by january 29 2026 183 883 657 383 499	6	$7.2K	4,416	2,915	+1,501	open	—	01-30 00:27
netanyahu out by march 31 854	16	$7.2K	5,937	1,485	+4,452	open	—	03-23 14:29
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	3	$7.0K	7,000	0	+7,000	open	—	02-07 00:21
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	7	$6.2K	6,246	0	+6,246	open	—	03-11 19:08
Trump out as President by June 30?	3	$6.0K	4,000	2,000	+2,000	open	—	06-29 15:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$6.0K	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	07-04 19:46
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	117	$6.0K	3,000	3,000	-0	open	—	04-28 04:19
will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	11	$5.6K	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	07-12 23:42
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	4	$5.5K	5,464	0	+5,464	open	—	04-30 21:48
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	10	$5.3K	5,600	0	+5,600	open	—	01-30 21:33
will claude 5 be released by march 15 2026	38	$5.1K	2,358	2,855	-497	open	—	03-11 08:54
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	38	$5.1K	3,500	1,875	+1,625	open	—	08-01 16:06
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	3	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	08-10 20:24
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	7	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	07-22 14:58
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	04-06 09:23
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	23	$5.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	07-14 09:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 20:24:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,992	0x0fb4fe…
08-10 17:20:34	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x2401ea…
08-10 15:56:48	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x0fae0d…
08-10 12:36:57	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xe47f09…
08-10 12:36:57	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xd921f9…
08-10 12:36:57	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x469046…
08-10 12:36:57	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x34eb6f…
08-10 12:36:55	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	1,119	99¢	$1,112	0x05ceb6…
08-10 12:35:42	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$997	0x56e7c8…
08-10 12:35:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 15 20260727171036148	No	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,994	0x3f089b…
08-08 23:42:12	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x6a7456…
08-08 22:12:00	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x407f93…
08-08 17:35:36	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xcfca38…
08-08 11:53:15	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x0ca39a…
08-08 06:50:03	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xa3b0af…
08-08 00:05:46	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	800	99¢	$794	0xb5b2e7…
08-07 14:21:18	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	185	96¢	$177	0x0d921a…
08-05 23:27:30	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	382	96¢	$368	0x583713…
08-05 20:03:00	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$471	0x4d3a0c…
08-05 17:56:20	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	103	96¢	$99	0x4d050f…
08-05 17:36:03	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x3e6467…
08-05 17:30:38	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1,500	96¢	$1,444	0xf6440a…
08-05 13:15:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	Yes	BUY	2,000	100¢	$1,996	0x912a0d…
08-02 02:08:09	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	730	95¢	$696	0x0dd48b…
08-02 01:48:32	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0x279033…
08-02 01:43:32	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0xc40fc6…
08-02 01:42:42	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xc919c3…
08-02 01:39:05	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xa3b092…
08-02 01:37:38	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x63deac…
08-02 01:25:11	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x0e8720…
08-02 00:51:47	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	62	95¢	$59	0xd3dec9…
08-02 00:43:45	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	108	95¢	$103	0x867f52…
08-02 00:38:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xf56d01…
08-02 00:27:35	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	23	95¢	$22	0x50c197…
08-02 00:22:36	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	27	95¢	$26	0x036948…
08-02 00:19:20	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	108	95¢	$103	0x6aef96…
08-01 23:36:54	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xc79165…
08-01 22:48:11	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0x223787…
08-01 22:47:02	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0xa43ba4…
08-01 22:36:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xa3734d…
08-01 21:39:11	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x7e321f…
08-01 21:35:02	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x36ca1c…
08-01 21:33:33	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x92d74b…
08-01 21:17:14	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x776917…
08-01 20:34:09	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xfebc15…
08-01 19:28:45	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	197	95¢	$187	0xeda9fd…
08-01 16:06:29	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$960	0x6b96b4…
07-31 16:38:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xd7878f…
07-31 12:12:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	189	98¢	$186	0xcad5fd…
07-31 12:02:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xa226e3…
07-29 11:52:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	838	100¢	$835	0x2bf447…
07-29 11:52:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	162	100¢	$161	0x9cc5bd…
07-24 12:13:13	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0x66b401…
07-23 11:20:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	611	97¢	$595	0x865db1…
07-22 14:58:07	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,500	100¢	$1,498	0x399816…
07-21 22:01:09	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xb075f2…
07-21 19:41:24	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0xc1f516…
07-21 19:40:45	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x26d4ab…
07-21 15:44:51	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	82	95¢	$78	0xb11ae3…
07-21 02:56:13	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	93¢	$930	0x1f7119…
07-21 02:24:06	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	90	95¢	$86	0xce2468…
07-20 17:22:52	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$992	0xde3fb4…
07-20 16:04:48	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x4308db…
07-20 13:08:55	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$497	0x3fb7c3…
07-20 10:05:33	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	400	87¢	$348	0x079045…
07-20 08:46:39	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	95¢	$26	0xc1e2af…
07-19 16:02:46	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x513ea8…
07-18 23:18:43	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0xbd7021…
07-18 19:26:06	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x7033ea…
07-18 18:44:48	2026 FIFA World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x256ded…
07-18 18:43:12	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xecdae9…
07-18 17:10:43	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x835d78…
07-17 23:21:19	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x3a1990…
07-16 19:03:41	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x421f47…
07-16 15:21:10	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0xd83fc0…
07-16 14:30:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	500	100¢	$498	0xed62ab…
07-15 23:19:11	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0xd5334a…
07-15 19:39:01	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x23754f…
07-15 14:27:56	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xac4b1c…
07-15 14:26:04	will gpt 6 be released by july 31 2026 20260610221318220 197	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0xd88534…
07-14 21:47:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x3b8cb3…
07-14 09:39:49	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$993	0x1be201…
07-14 08:28:11	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	354	88¢	$312	0xc44a1a…
07-13 21:28:04	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	437	94¢	$411	0x9e1245…
07-13 21:12:10	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	94¢	$470	0x5564b2…
07-13 19:06:43	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	94¢	$59	0x17f046…
07-13 17:20:58	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	58	96¢	$56	0xad6df4…
07-13 16:17:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	4,000	100¢	$3,988	0x791ca3…
07-13 16:02:23	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	311	93¢	$289	0x03612d…
07-13 14:43:16	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	75	96¢	$72	0xc11cd2…
07-13 14:07:13	Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	67	96¢	$64	0x3f697c…
07-12 23:42:41	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	964	99¢	$949	0x67234c…
07-12 22:41:07	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x3061bc…
07-12 21:58:56	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xcb3743…
07-12 19:37:11	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	SELL	19	98¢	$19	0xc7c123…
07-12 18:04:50	Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xe543a4…
07-12 11:45:52	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	189	93¢	$176	0x277e1f…
07-11 13:52:02	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	1,000	95¢	$951	0x2143b2…
07-11 07:43:32	jd vance out as vp by july 31 20260626154902197	No	BUY	102	99¢	$101	0x23dd9b…
07-10 23:57:38	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0xa7a064…