Grounded-Snug — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$21.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.67K

Hit rate

90.5%

Resolved

124

Trades

2,390

lifetime

Volume

$989.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$414

Open exposure

$3.51K

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-21 10:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Other

56% 75% +$17,897

Politics

32% 78% +$2,774

Tech

13% 81% +$1,364

Sports

0% 0% -$160

Crypto

0% 0% -$25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+3,709	$3,189	55¢	$2.0K	-$1,150	06-22 08:51
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	No	-874	-$813	97¢	$-847	-$34	06-28 14:36
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	-635	-$615	98¢	$-620	-$5	08-16 14:45
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+0	-$900	94¢	$0	+$900	09-08 19:40
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+0	-$1,756	88¢	$0	+$1,756	09-01 12:01
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	+0	-$200	97¢	$0	+$200	08-17 08:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	163	$122.1K	63,339	63,339	+0	No	+$4,159	03-26 23:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	117	$91.8K	78,917	78,916	+0	No	+$19,447	05-25 21:10
will openai have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	9	$50.8K	25,927	25,927	+0	No	+$943	01-31 17:06
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	48	$41.7K	24,436	24,436	+0	open	—	09-01 12:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	47	$39.6K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	+$340	05-26 14:46
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	655	$31.2K	16,687	16,687	-0	open	—	07-29 06:16
will openai have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	62	$29.5K	19,402	10,426	+8,976	No	+$229	01-24 23:35
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	12	$28.6K	14,451	15,105	-654	No	+$58	01-12 11:54
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	12	$27.0K	14,245	14,245	+0	No	+$524	08-17 05:28
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	7	$20.2K	15,859	5,000	+10,859	No	+$563	02-25 02:31
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	4	$20.0K	20,291	0	+20,291	No	+$244	02-21 00:16
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	11	$19.3K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$260	02-28 06:45
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	24	$18.9K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	10-18 00:29
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	58	$17.7K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	09-08 19:40
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	41	$17.6K	18,188	0	+18,188	No	+$573	02-18 21:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	35	$17.0K	14,614	14,614	+0	Yes	+$7,836	04-20 13:34
us strikes iran by february 17 2026 833	5	$15.9K	8,000	8,000	+0	No	+$64	02-18 01:36
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	23	$15.4K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	10-21 10:48
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	43	$14.2K	8,363	8,363	+0	Yes	-$145	02-06 05:29
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	12	$12.9K	11,893	1,893	+10,000	No	+$337	02-25 08:38
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	7	$11.9K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	+$42	02-06 03:29
will artemis ii launch by february 28	30	$11.2K	5,667	5,667	+0	No	+$77	02-18 14:40
us strikes iran by january 12 2026 314	20	$10.3K	10,747	0	+10,747	No	+$479	01-13 02:01
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	23	$9.7K	10,475	0	+10,475	No	+$730	01-13 14:32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	1	$9.4K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$640	07-29 06:15
will uae strike iran by march 31	64	$9.3K	7,721	7,721	+0	No	-$819	03-09 04:50
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	8	$9.1K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	08-17 08:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	48	$9.0K	9,996	4,998	+4,998	Yes	-$2,156	04-21 14:13
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	1	$8.9K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$1,100	06-12 11:26
Will the US strike 3 countries in 2026?	20	$8.0K	8,182	15	+8,167	No	+$212	02-04 04:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 10:48:39	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	8,589	77¢	$6,613	0xf0b247…
10-21 07:01:32	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	35	77¢	$27	0x4d9e89…
10-21 04:08:54	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x6d21f3…
10-21 04:07:38	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	100	77¢	$77	0x7cd971…
10-21 03:40:51	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	3	77¢	$2	0xa7e70e…
10-21 03:40:21	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	70	77¢	$54	0x205195…
10-21 03:40:21	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	70	77¢	$54	0x15ac7e…
10-20 18:11:47	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	80	77¢	$62	0xcfde77…
10-19 18:24:59	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	40	77¢	$31	0x8b59be…
10-19 18:24:57	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x95e199…
10-19 18:24:57	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	30	77¢	$23	0x09186c…
10-18 10:27:45	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	323	77¢	$248	0x92ef23…
10-18 00:29:23	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x80e225…
10-17 10:36:32	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	51	77¢	$39	0xe5041c…
10-17 10:31:42	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	108	77¢	$83	0xaacc17…
10-17 09:51:09	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	120	77¢	$92	0x383ca8…
10-17 04:42:02	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x291a7f…
10-16 21:26:56	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	SELL	260	77¢	$200	0x26036b…
09-08 19:40:13	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	1,913	93¢	$1,779	0xd614bd…
09-08 15:39:49	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xf1ae19…
09-08 15:37:37	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	3,000	93¢	$2,790	0xc732d7…
09-08 08:14:49	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	195	93¢	$181	0xf22bd9…
09-08 05:23:51	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	36	93¢	$34	0x53fa17…
09-08 02:17:16	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x5ae30a…
09-08 02:17:09	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x2c0f7a…
09-08 02:17:06	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xe18480…
09-08 02:17:06	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x338580…
09-07 21:58:58	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0xcfc21a…
09-07 21:12:07	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	500	93¢	$465	0x6974df…
09-07 18:50:49	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	27	93¢	$25	0x1ac1e2…
09-07 18:32:27	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	70	93¢	$65	0x83dc69…
09-07 17:39:49	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x347c8a…
09-07 17:30:16	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$9	0xfb9594…
09-07 16:02:07	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0x2c6498…
09-07 12:09:18	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x4fd862…
09-07 09:14:10	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x9d35fa…
09-06 22:35:10	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x49bd83…
09-06 21:41:04	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x2184f7…
09-06 16:26:06	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	249	93¢	$232	0xd35e95…
09-06 16:25:46	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0xc027cc…
09-06 15:29:10	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	160	93¢	$149	0x8e0cc4…
09-06 15:20:00	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x5ea740…
09-06 09:49:28	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x6ea0fe…
09-06 05:46:06	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x49b516…
09-05 15:44:21	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0xbbd4f2…
09-05 15:35:43	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	1,132	93¢	$1,053	0x2dedd1…
09-05 12:30:24	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	56	93¢	$52	0x9852ca…
09-05 11:26:46	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x6e1398…
09-05 11:26:33	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x72e8a7…
09-05 11:24:49	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	50	93¢	$46	0xf8419f…
09-05 11:24:48	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xb34f39…
09-05 11:24:48	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	29	93¢	$27	0x9afd76…
09-05 11:24:45	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x71eaec…
09-05 11:24:42	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x479054…
09-05 08:43:43	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	40	93¢	$37	0xe91c3c…
09-05 08:43:33	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x6e659e…
09-05 02:43:16	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x98869e…
09-04 23:17:22	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	2,332	93¢	$2,169	0x8d7972…
09-01 12:01:09	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	24	89¢	$22	0x037078…
08-30 13:14:40	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x5099a9…
08-30 12:01:34	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	23	89¢	$21	0xc51fba…
08-30 08:41:54	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	31	89¢	$27	0x7c2563…
08-29 10:47:42	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	2,952	89¢	$2,627	0x0c087f…
08-29 05:02:45	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	1,302	89¢	$1,159	0x977d69…
08-28 20:45:37	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	1,000	89¢	$890	0xa1346c…
08-28 19:07:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	1,000	89¢	$890	0x2fa023…
08-27 09:45:33	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,861	97¢	$2,764	0xd69bb3…
08-26 10:11:18	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x5e9a7a…
08-25 19:59:58	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	6,482	89¢	$5,769	0xd5b016…
08-25 19:51:48	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	5,346	89¢	$4,758	0x53d6e0…
08-25 18:34:04	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	1,911	89¢	$1,701	0xec19d1…
08-25 15:36:07	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0x096829…
08-24 15:25:30	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	128	89¢	$114	0x544167…
08-24 14:22:03	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0x7284b4…
08-24 14:21:36	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0x4ec60f…
08-24 14:21:19	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$1	0xb3d56e…
08-24 14:21:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	3,891	89¢	$3,463	0xf3e893…
08-21 09:54:49	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6,923	96¢	$6,669	0x1a980a…
08-20 18:12:12	Will Trump nationalize elections?	No	SELL	437	90¢	$394	0xad4bda…
08-19 20:09:45	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	966	82¢	$792	0x95ad0c…
08-19 17:14:46	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	1,337	81¢	$1,083	0xdd27ce…
08-19 15:49:39	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$15	0xbc2ee8…
08-19 13:34:22	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	45	81¢	$36	0x52e9be…
08-18 15:59:46	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	92	81¢	$74	0x01d8f3…
08-18 14:46:09	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0xd513d5…
08-18 12:25:45	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,073	77¢	$1,596	0x042959…
08-18 11:28:39	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	77¢	$5	0x8de2cd…
08-18 11:28:39	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0x675543…
08-18 10:15:13	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	167	97¢	$162	0x4f4a27…
08-18 08:43:57	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	913	77¢	$703	0xf0123f…
08-17 19:51:58	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0xccaf55…
08-17 18:40:54	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	123	81¢	$100	0xa64a99…
08-17 08:53:19	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	123	81¢	$100	0xc48855…
08-17 08:24:12	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0xbc1a72…
08-17 08:21:07	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0x0ac618…
08-17 08:21:06	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	67	93¢	$62	0xfaef9b…
08-17 08:21:06	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x021f00…
08-17 08:18:51	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x7e96e8…
08-17 08:18:42	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	4,805	93¢	$4,468	0xc54a52…
08-17 08:14:13	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	64	81¢	$52	0xac09cb…