Unlucky-Mezzanine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.04K

Unrealized P&L

+$65

Hit rate

88.8%

Resolved

772

Trades

4,803

lifetime

Volume

$453.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

$2.01K

15 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 10-27 03:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 135 days

Categories

Politics

50% 91% +$709

Other

42% 66% +$55

Crypto

4% 84% +$152

Tech

2% 100% +$131

Sports

1% 51% +$3

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (15) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+400	$383	96¢	$385	+$2	10-24 12:01
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	No	+343	$336	98¢	$337	+$1	10-16 18:38
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+200	$215	98¢	$196	-$19	10-21 01:56
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+200	$181	98¢	$196	+$15	10-26 01:18
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	+200	$192	98¢	$196	+$4	10-21 20:24
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$188	97¢	$194	+$6	10-26 19:10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+200	$164	94¢	$187	+$23	10-27 02:28
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	No	+100	$75	97¢	$97	+$22	10-20 17:33
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+100	$82	86¢	$86	+$4	10-18 01:44
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+100	$75	76¢	$76	+$2	10-27 12:34
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	No	-50	-$46	96¢	$-48	-$2	06-13 08:11
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	+20	$6	54¢	$11	+$5	08-17 02:14
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	+3	$1	99¢	$3	+$2	10-13 10:52
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	+$0	07-15 16:50
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	+$0	06-04 14:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	90	$25.8K	12,954	12,954	+0	No	+$23	06-24 05:05
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	68	$12.6K	6,772	6,572	+200	open	—	10-21 01:56
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	32	$11.5K	4,800	6,900	-2,100	No	+$2	04-02 01:42
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	237	$10.6K	5,600	5,400	+200	open	—	10-26 01:18
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	52	$8.8K	5,000	4,800	+200	open	—	10-27 02:28
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	25	$8.5K	4,550	4,179	+371	No	+$91	05-21 03:27
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	40	$7.9K	4,002	4,002	+0	Yes	+$9	06-28 16:28
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	10	$6.8K	1,513	5,300	-3,787	No	-$15	04-29 18:33
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	46	$6.6K	3,394	3,237	+157	No	+$4	03-31 00:01
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	53	$6.5K	3,250	3,250	+0	No	+$5	03-31 09:53
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	31	$6.4K	4,000	2,700	+1,300	No	+$47	05-27 13:49
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	15	$6.4K	3,209	3,200	+9	No	+$8	06-24 03:54
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	71	$5.4K	8,895	7,990	+905	No	-$3	04-05 22:34
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	9	$5.4K	2,700	2,700	+0	Yes	+$8	06-23 21:56
will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	15	$5.0K	2,212	2,800	-588	No	+$2	04-15 18:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	17	$4.8K	2,450	2,450	+0	No	-$18	05-06 09:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	29	$4.7K	2,330	2,500	-170	No	+$4	05-15 11:26
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	9	$4.6K	1,700	2,900	-1,200	Yes	+$1	04-30 23:27
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	41	$4.5K	2,307	2,307	+0	Yes	+$24	07-04 06:37
will the us invade iran by march 31	40	$4.2K	2,441	2,019	+421	No	+$48	03-31 22:44
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	36	$4.0K	2,058	2,037	+21	No	+$8	05-21 03:22
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	3	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	+$2	07-01 21:05
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31?	31	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$3	07-25 08:05
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	14	$3.8K	1,900	1,900	+0	No	+$3	05-23 16:04
Iran leadership change by September 30?	20	$3.5K	1,815	1,800	+15	No	+$15	09-27 23:58
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	27	$3.5K	1,800	1,800	+0	No	+$3	04-15 18:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	27	$3.3K	1,670	1,870	-200	No	$0	05-15 12:49
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	11	$3.1K	1,578	1,578	+0	Yes	+$16	04-22 17:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	17	$3.0K	1,800	1,800	+0	open	—	10-27 03:22
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?	24	$2.9K	1,400	1,550	-150	No	+$1	04-12 21:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 12:34:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x4ea6ea…
10-27 03:22:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x9b7ca8…
10-27 02:28:59	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	106	93¢	$99	0x05c512…
10-27 02:25:57	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0xcdaeb9…
10-27 01:49:05	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	86	93¢	$80	0x0b770d…
10-26 22:26:53	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	300	94¢	$282	0xee0e26…
10-26 19:10:17	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x8fed1d…
10-26 01:18:21	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0xc8557a…
10-26 00:10:11	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	300	92¢	$276	0xefe573…
10-24 22:35:35	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	206	92¢	$190	0xb97b24…
10-24 20:16:21	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	194	92¢	$178	0x9387f1…
10-24 12:01:35	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	400	97¢	$386	0x07de34…
10-23 22:39:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x5ff7a2…
10-22 15:44:50	Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	28¢	$5	0x14a35e…
10-22 15:43:11	Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	26¢	$10	0x8f321c…
10-22 05:01:15	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xf7a557…
10-21 20:24:12	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$193	0x7429cc…
10-21 18:47:36	NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	SELL	116	99¢	$115	0x556cbd…
10-21 11:21:02	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xadefaf…
10-21 10:33:44	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	90	94¢	$85	0x797877…
10-21 01:56:42	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x475fb6…
10-20 20:29:35	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x0198cf…
10-20 19:14:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$195	0x4a7774…
10-20 17:33:24	Ebola pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xfb3ac8…
10-19 07:07:30	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x1530c1…
10-18 08:52:26	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0x6e4df8…
10-18 05:40:02	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	400	98¢	$392	0x444d04…
10-18 02:02:33	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0x807f71…
10-18 01:44:54	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xb5c09b…
10-17 23:56:30	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	90	97¢	$88	0x82e682…
10-17 23:54:35	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	107	97¢	$104	0x4752f4…
10-17 23:34:18	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$193	0xe1152b…
10-17 23:16:56	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x57ebf1…
10-17 12:20:51	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	73	38¢	$28	0xa4956a…
10-17 09:40:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	SELL	219	99¢	$217	0x39cbe3…
10-17 09:19:06	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	27	38¢	$10	0x40e647…
10-17 08:42:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	SELL	81	99¢	$81	0x58726b…
10-17 06:12:37	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0x924532…
10-17 02:42:29	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	87¢	$10	0xfeada1…
10-17 02:42:29	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	164	87¢	$142	0xc19329…
10-17 01:24:38	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0xe518a6…
10-16 23:27:33	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x48670a…
10-16 19:50:32	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	300	98¢	$293	0xab5993…
10-16 19:00:43	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	300	95¢	$285	0x78175e…
10-16 18:38:28	Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	No	BUY	194	98¢	$190	0x96eb68…
10-16 10:22:51	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xe3f289…
10-16 06:42:57	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$191	0xa3c389…
10-16 03:17:00	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	85	100¢	$85	0x45b977…
10-16 03:17:00	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	77	38¢	$29	0x3ac573…
10-16 03:17:00	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0x244465…
10-16 01:03:10	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	23	38¢	$9	0xff64f8…
10-16 01:02:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	No	BUY	300	99¢	$298	0x02102c…
10-15 23:16:49	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe8a5d6…
10-15 23:03:58	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$195	0x5afc1f…
10-15 20:16:49	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	85¢	$171	0x90613c…
10-15 18:35:23	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$193	0x3424de…
10-15 14:10:04	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x052c99…
10-15 13:33:44	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x45d9ce…
10-14 20:26:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xec8e0b…
10-14 16:26:24	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$197	0xb19e6f…
10-14 02:43:40	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xb74232…
10-13 21:50:06	Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0xc017f8…
10-13 20:42:04	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0xaa4681…
10-13 20:33:13	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x35c5c4…
10-13 18:37:46	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x9ba0a8…
10-13 17:34:40	Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x0f13d3…
10-13 13:32:40	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	175	86¢	$150	0x326070…
10-13 10:52:07	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x054e31…
10-13 03:43:53	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0xcc4db3…
10-12 21:58:59	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x086970…
10-12 21:39:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x18df44…
10-12 21:31:11	NATO dissolves before 2027?	No	BUY	116	99¢	$114	0x868a0b…
10-12 21:30:17	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x6aa654…
10-12 09:20:14	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	87¢	$15	0x691eb1…
10-12 03:41:24	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	87¢	$7	0x96829b…
10-11 13:54:40	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	86¢	$22	0xaad799…
10-11 09:25:09	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xecd4a6…
10-08 23:15:45	Ebola pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0xafe037…
10-06 21:53:51	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xf28fbc…
10-05 18:53:35	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x93739c…
10-05 17:35:40	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0xf69717…
10-05 17:35:40	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x985940…
10-05 08:52:37	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	399	100¢	$397	0x344e4d…
10-04 01:59:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	400	84¢	$336	0x843802…
10-03 22:58:08	Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xadc447…
10-03 22:58:08	Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x69c50a…
10-03 22:58:08	Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x04509f…
10-03 22:55:14	Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x3d7b38…
10-03 22:55:13	Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xd4a90e…
10-03 19:09:35	Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0xf732c0…
10-03 19:09:14	Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xd33a97…
10-03 19:08:50	Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0xbacfb2…
10-03 16:35:09	Ebola pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0x130782…
10-03 06:47:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xb6a9de…
10-03 04:03:53	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0xbf9bd3…
10-03 03:34:02	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0xc76914…
10-02 23:26:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0xcee859…
10-02 21:36:36	Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x47ef63…
10-02 18:03:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x1e38cc…
10-01 21:13:36	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xbb7602…