Unlucky-Mezzanine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.8%

Resolved

Trades

3,320

lifetime

Volume

$284.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$86

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-22

last 08-10 18:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

50% 67% +$9

Other

47% 100% +$5

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 108 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	32	$11.5K	4,800	6,900	-2,100	open	—	04-02 01:42
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	25	$8.5K	4,550	4,179	+371	open	—	05-21 03:27
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	10	$6.8K	1,513	5,300	-3,787	open	—	04-29 18:33
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	46	$6.6K	3,394	3,237	+157	open	—	03-31 00:01
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	53	$6.5K	3,250	3,250	+0	open	—	03-31 09:53
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	30	$6.0K	3,600	2,700	+900	open	—	05-27 13:49
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	71	$5.4K	8,895	7,990	+905	open	—	04-05 22:34
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	25	$5.1K	2,800	2,800	+0	open	—	07-19 02:47
will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	15	$5.0K	2,212	2,800	-588	open	—	04-15 18:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	17	$4.8K	2,450	2,450	+0	open	—	05-06 09:30
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	29	$4.7K	2,330	2,500	-170	open	—	05-15 11:26
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	9	$4.6K	1,700	2,900	-1,200	open	—	04-30 23:27
will the us invade iran by march 31	40	$4.2K	2,441	2,019	+421	open	—	03-31 22:44
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	36	$4.0K	2,058	2,037	+21	open	—	05-21 03:22
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	3	$4.0K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	07-01 21:05
new stranger things episode released by july 31	29	$3.8K	1,800	2,000	-200	open	—	07-25 08:05
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	14	$3.8K	1,900	1,900	+0	open	—	05-23 16:04
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	27	$3.5K	1,800	1,800	+0	open	—	04-15 18:36
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	11	$3.1K	1,578	1,578	+0	open	—	04-22 17:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	26	$3.1K	1,670	1,620	+50	open	—	05-15 12:49
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?	24	$2.9K	1,400	1,550	-150	open	—	04-12 21:19
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	11	$2.9K	1,872	1,174	+698	open	—	07-31 16:58
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	188	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	08-07 07:51
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	7	$2.6K	1,100	1,500	-400	open	—	04-08 16:12
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	44	$2.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	03-28 07:32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	14	$2.6K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	06-27 03:03
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	12	$2.6K	1,305	1,305	+0	No	+$4	05-08 11:13
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	38	$2.5K	1,224	1,406	-182	open	—	05-17 15:07
Netanyahu out by April 30?	19	$2.5K	1,256	1,256	+0	open	—	04-17 00:02
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	226	$2.5K	1,300	1,300	+0	open	—	07-19 18:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 18:36:24	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xdb388d…
08-10 17:53:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	300	98¢	$293	0xb03d78…
08-10 17:04:13	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	109	95¢	$104	0xbc2f76…
08-10 16:13:33	trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0xed5aeb…
08-09 15:20:42	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x41edbe…
08-07 07:51:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	202	96¢	$194	0xe51e2f…
08-07 07:48:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xe6064c…
08-07 07:39:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xcbf3be…
08-07 07:26:46	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x5b1958…
08-07 07:21:49	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	28	96¢	$27	0xe2cd13…
08-07 07:02:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x4a47f0…
08-07 06:52:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x079a8f…
08-07 06:42:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x94b849…
08-07 06:25:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xd45bfa…
08-07 06:24:57	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$12	0x4f8896…
08-06 12:31:21	Will Atalanta qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?	No	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xc54df0…
08-04 15:44:32	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	220	97¢	$214	0x98a6ab…
08-01 18:01:36	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$6	0xddb81a…
08-01 12:50:23	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xd6c546…
07-31 23:48:18	will donald trump publicly insult kevin warsh by july 31 2026 20260626210612736	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xe15fac…
07-31 19:40:05	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	193	99¢	$192	0xdf8efd…
07-31 19:39:30	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	287	99¢	$285	0xaa2510…
07-31 19:39:05	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	20	99¢	$19	0x19a760…
07-31 19:39:03	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xee99bd…
07-31 19:38:59	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x1ea18f…
07-31 17:24:39	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	67	96¢	$64	0x0c55ca…
07-31 16:58:23	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	550	96¢	$529	0x4ae11e…
07-31 16:13:00	Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$193	0xa12fa3…
07-29 14:28:29	atp mcdona rodiono 2026 07 29	Jurij Rodionov	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x1da8ce…
07-29 14:24:32	atp mcdona rodiono 2026 07 29	Jurij Rodionov	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xd1d26b…
07-29 13:37:20	wta tormo hennema 2026 07 29	Sara Sorribes Tormo	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0xc239f5…
07-29 13:31:09	atp mcdona rodiono 2026 07 29	Jurij Rodionov	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xef1905…
07-29 13:26:32	wta shymano volynet 2026 07 29	Katie Volynets	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x0bed90…
07-29 13:23:56	atp mcdona rodiono 2026 07 29	Jurij Rodionov	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x5f92ce…
07-28 22:55:49	Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x9c36b0…
07-28 18:32:31	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x2638f6…
07-28 16:24:53	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x08a939…
07-28 16:13:38	atp mannari tien 2026 07 27	Learner Tien	BUY	62	83¢	$51	0x3de71a…
07-28 16:00:07	atp barton nedic 2026 07 27	Hynek Barton	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0xa3ed84…
07-28 15:47:08	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	BUY	74	100¢	$74	0xaf73e8…
07-27 21:32:51	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	300	94¢	$283	0xfe652e…
07-27 14:48:13	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 7 2026 20260630182730885	No	SELL	8	93¢	$8	0xd115c3…
07-27 12:14:12	wta quevedo fetecau 2026 07 27	Kaitlin Quevedo	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x06db9e…
07-27 10:55:40	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x0a1093…
07-26 22:23:45	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x89fe1e…
07-26 20:20:46	mlb ari wsh 2026 07 26	Washington Nationals	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x346133…
07-26 20:19:24	wta prozoro drenser 2026 07 26	Tatiana Prozorova	BUY	135	92¢	$124	0xbceb66…
07-26 20:10:34	wta prozoro drenser 2026 07 26	Tatiana Prozorova	BUY	140	92¢	$129	0x7f53f0…
07-26 19:51:21	wta prozoro drenser 2026 07 26	Tatiana Prozorova	BUY	150	92¢	$138	0x447730…
07-25 08:05:51	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0xaac796…
07-25 04:28:39	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x34cbd2…
07-25 04:21:39	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 7 2026 20260630182730885	No	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xbb91a6…
07-25 03:54:00	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	179	100¢	$179	0x79699d…
07-24 22:16:03	mlb sea tex 2026 07 24	Texas Rangers	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xd79bfc…
07-24 21:45:15	mlb col mil 2026 07 24	Colorado Rockies	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xb87c30…
07-24 21:43:01	mlb col mil 2026 07 24 total 8pt5	Over	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xf05999…
07-24 21:41:04	mlb col mil 2026 07 24 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x155f64…
07-24 21:11:46	mlb col mil 2026 07 24	Colorado Rockies	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x293790…
07-24 21:11:13	mlb col mil 2026 07 24	Colorado Rockies	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x725bf6…
07-24 20:27:30	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	18	98¢	$18	0x373aaa…
07-24 20:27:27	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xf7599e…
07-24 19:53:22	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	SELL	181	100¢	$180	0x52430a…
07-24 19:49:46	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x424bd3…
07-24 18:11:37	mlb col mil 2026 07 24	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0xb871e1…
07-24 16:22:45	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xa0f40d…
07-24 16:22:42	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xe67420…
07-24 16:03:42	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	122	93¢	$114	0x38a61f…
07-24 15:34:31	Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xf2ba87…
07-24 15:18:54	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	78	93¢	$72	0x63052a…
07-24 14:59:15	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8c11db…
07-24 12:39:13	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x9866a3…
07-24 12:27:39	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x2cd7d8…
07-24 09:28:12	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xaf3641…
07-24 07:13:49	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x6f035a…
07-24 06:23:54	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xf8f60d…
07-24 01:11:07	new stranger things episode released by july 31	No	BUY	300	100¢	$299	0x456763…
07-24 00:29:27	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xb8f688…
07-23 23:55:36	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xa76738…
07-23 22:50:16	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2cc75d…
07-23 22:31:09	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x6c05b5…
07-23 22:21:30	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xe88d4e…
07-23 22:12:12	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0xdc969a…
07-23 21:47:03	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x7b1840…
07-23 15:29:24	will ethereum reach 2500 in july 2026	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x86348e…
07-23 14:15:13	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x427ba6…
07-23 13:22:18	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xc6b806…
07-23 13:09:15	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x94c162…
07-23 13:03:39	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x040f84…
07-23 12:31:12	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x73f9e5…
07-23 11:23:24	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x570088…
07-23 11:20:52	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x8da694…
07-23 09:05:16	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x33ef17…
07-23 08:21:57	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xbb372f…
07-23 07:34:30	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x96d189…
07-23 07:12:40	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x99457c…
07-23 06:41:31	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x09aaa1…
07-23 06:13:09	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	300	94¢	$283	0x3ad1ee…
07-23 05:50:43	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xde1664…
07-23 05:23:10	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2e4917…
07-23 04:53:03	will wti dip to 45 in july 2026 954	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xde1f98…