Realized P&L
+$1.77K
Unrealized P&L
+$640
Hit rate
81.5%
Resolved
533
Trades
11,532
lifetime
Volume
$265.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$23
Open exposure
$16.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-05
last 10-30 16:03
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 116 days
Categories
Politics
57% 67% +$692
Other
36% 71% +$722
Sports
5% 57% +$161
Tech
1% 50% -$108
Crypto
1% 73% +$298
Pop-Culture
1% 100% +$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 220 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2,284 $1,932 94¢ $2.1K +$204 10-30 10:30
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,948 $1,626 82¢ $1.6K -$18 10-30 10:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +2,049 $1,363 60¢ $1.2K -$144 10-29 22:04
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +1,038 $720 90¢ $929 +$209 10-30 09:30
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +917 $818 92¢ $849 +$30 10-27 09:30
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +810 $774 95¢ $770 -$5 10-29 20:30
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No +706 $619 94¢ $667 +$47 10-30 09:30
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No +700 $621 94¢ $661 +$40 10-30 09:30
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +688 $637 94¢ $650 +$13 10-30 09:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +714 $563 88¢ $632 +$69 10-30 11:30
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +560 $446 98¢ $546 +$101 10-30 09:30
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +676 $522 70¢ $477 -$45 10-30 09:30
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +422 $398 97¢ $411 +$13 10-29 17:43
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +556 $366 72¢ $397 +$31 10-30 11:30
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +400 $371 94¢ $374 +$3 10-29 13:02
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? No +362 $345 97¢ $349 +$4 10-30 09:30
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +365 $322 94¢ $342 +$20 10-30 06:50
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +468 $311 72¢ $334 +$24 10-30 12:05
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +773 $449 40¢ $312 -$137 10-30 09:30
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +360 $288 85¢ $308 +$20 10-25 05:30
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +287 $276 98¢ $281 +$5 10-29 21:30
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No +297 $259 92¢ $271 +$12 10-29 21:26
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes +278 $245 93¢ $258 +$13 10-30 09:30
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? Yes +303 $246 84¢ $256 +$10 10-30 10:30
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +250 $236 93¢ $233 -$3 10-27 01:27
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No +237 $228 96¢ $229 +$1 10-14 05:30
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No +230 $133 92¢ $212 +$80 10-30 09:30
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +212 $176 99¢ $210 +$35 10-23 05:00
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No +209 $196 96¢ $201 +$5 10-30 09:30
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026? No +205 $191 94¢ $193 +$3 10-30 11:30