Humongous-Maybe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$277

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.5%

Resolved

Trades

20,095

lifetime

Volume

$868.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 08-10 18:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

81% 69% +$397

Other

14% 0% $-120

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 460 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	193	$38.1K	19,685	19,678	+6	open	—	02-13 04:54
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	262	$32.1K	28,553	31,769	-3,216	open	—	06-17 23:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	251	$28.2K	22,217	18,405	+3,812	open	—	08-07 03:43
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	135	$18.8K	13,167	13,197	-30	open	—	02-28 06:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	240	$17.7K	17,132	17,610	-479	open	—	04-08 01:27
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	211	$15.2K	18,042	17,938	+103	open	—	02-28 04:48
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	349	$13.2K	15,496	16,760	-1,264	open	—	03-12 20:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	183	$13.1K	9,250	11,517	-2,267	open	—	06-16 03:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	353	$11.5K	16,583	16,831	-248	open	—	05-31 01:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	158	$10.7K	12,147	9,110	+3,037	open	—	04-08 20:45
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	23	$10.4K	5,367	5,367	+0	open	—	02-10 00:04
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	87	$10.3K	9,627	9,133	+495	open	—	07-20 21:28
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	170	$10.0K	11,277	9,059	+2,218	open	—	04-08 00:58
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	265	$10.0K	10,599	10,599	+0	open	—	03-31 01:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	160	$9.8K	38,490	11,453	+27,037	open	—	03-01 02:01
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	148	$9.6K	9,183	9,456	-273	open	—	04-22 09:23
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	47	$9.5K	4,715	4,831	-115	open	—	04-12 22:34
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	268	$9.3K	10,563	10,168	+394	open	—	08-10 21:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	76	$8.9K	4,542	4,719	-177	open	—	04-16 19:58
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	167	$8.4K	11,148	11,670	-522	open	—	04-07 23:16
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	58	$7.7K	5,528	3,584	+1,944	open	—	04-21 00:02
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	66	$7.6K	4,063	4,063	+0	open	—	02-22 18:03
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	113	$7.6K	4,639	4,639	-0	open	—	03-07 14:28
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	72	$6.7K	16,683	4,784	+11,899	open	—	06-04 00:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	120	$6.5K	12,211	9,607	+2,605	open	—	04-28 23:50
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	128	$6.5K	5,123	5,166	-43	open	—	04-16 19:48
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	120	$6.4K	7,649	6,385	+1,264	open	—	02-21 01:07
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	166	$6.2K	10,120	9,480	+640	open	—	03-31 02:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	91	$5.9K	9,824	9,824	+0	open	—	06-23 09:06
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	72	$5.8K	5,577	3,678	+1,900	open	—	08-08 17:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 21:22:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xe1a362…
08-10 20:48:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x8d4e28…
08-10 20:39:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	88	17¢	$15	0xae089b…
08-10 20:34:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0x1f4742…
08-10 19:35:25	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0x3dc1b6…
08-10 19:02:45	will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	29	9¢	$3	0xb78895…
08-10 18:55:45	will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	194	9¢	$17	0x7f7d6b…
08-10 18:52:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	SELL	404	1¢	$4	0xd04d0b…
08-10 18:37:04	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0xe06506…
08-10 17:59:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xd0d021…
08-10 17:34:24	will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x670916…
08-10 17:27:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x805f00…
08-10 17:14:04	will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	19	9¢	$2	0xcf09f7…
08-10 16:51:24	will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0x371ba3…
08-10 16:35:03	btc updown 5m 1786379400	Up	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0xe4e6db…
08-10 16:02:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0x657ec4…
08-10 16:01:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	242	4¢	$9	0x574739…
08-10 15:37:24	btc updown 5m 1786376100	Up	SELL	74	5¢	$4	0xbc5e27…
08-10 15:37:22	btc updown 5m 1786376100	Up	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xaeb40e…
08-10 15:36:24	btc updown 5m 1786376100	Up	BUY	21	26¢	$5	0xc11adc…
08-10 15:36:22	btc updown 5m 1786376100	Up	BUY	21	26¢	$5	0x855222…
08-10 15:36:03	btc updown 5m 1786376100	Up	BUY	21	30¢	$6	0xec66a5…
08-10 15:36:03	btc updown 5m 1786376100	Up	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0xa0f9b7…
08-10 15:34:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x7f4fa3…
08-10 15:17:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x857f21…
08-10 14:35:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	460	2¢	$9	0xe963ca…
08-10 14:23:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	73	5¢	$4	0xe1fcf0…
08-10 14:12:22	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xa347d5…
08-10 13:46:42	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xe00f4b…
08-10 13:42:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	144	4¢	$6	0xc7d9be…
08-10 13:35:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	107	1¢	$1	0x9fbfba…
08-10 13:34:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0xe32796…
08-10 13:34:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	23	2¢	$0	0xd631b4…
08-10 12:51:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x70166c…
08-10 11:39:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xc5e226…
08-10 11:39:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	38	5¢	$2	0x48790c…
08-10 11:33:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	42	5¢	$2	0x0f3a35…
08-10 11:22:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0x22fbda…
08-10 11:18:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0xcc9036…
08-10 11:01:58	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	30	5¢	$1	0x7b1495…
08-10 10:24:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	30	5¢	$1	0x46d03b…
08-10 10:23:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	47	5¢	$2	0x2a041b…
08-10 10:11:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0xcf73d4…
08-10 09:54:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x9fdbeb…
08-10 08:50:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x7673a7…
08-10 08:29:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	22	5¢	$1	0x76ddb3…
08-10 08:26:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xec9ee3…
08-10 08:21:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0x3b8b10…
08-10 08:21:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xbf609d…
08-10 07:31:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	556	2¢	$12	0x9a98c1…
08-10 07:05:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xa0f612…
08-10 06:41:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xee6a27…
08-10 06:37:34	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	16	5¢	$1	0xa97268…
08-10 06:36:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	93	5¢	$5	0xc630cc…
08-10 06:36:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0x590e07…
08-10 05:49:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	376	13¢	$49	0xe35be1…
08-10 05:47:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x2dbd45…
08-10 05:47:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	52	14¢	$7	0x11c0a2…
08-10 05:47:33	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x3f4b8e…
08-10 04:12:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	221	3¢	$6	0x1faa0c…
08-10 02:38:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x4b4fde…
08-10 02:10:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x8fbdc5…
08-10 02:03:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	310	4¢	$13	0x5ac419…
08-10 02:03:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	310	4¢	$13	0x781486…
08-10 01:53:30	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xb9525b…
08-10 01:53:30	btc updown 5m 1786326600	Down	BUY	21	25¢	$5	0x9076cf…
08-10 01:24:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	556	6¢	$33	0x46cda5…
08-10 01:13:09	btc updown 5m 1786324200	Up	SELL	9	83¢	$7	0x598fe8…
08-10 01:13:09	btc updown 5m 1786324200	Up	SELL	11	82¢	$9	0x18cd1d…
08-10 01:12:30	btc updown 5m 1786324200	Up	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xc9bf8b…
08-10 00:06:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	102	15¢	$15	0x75735b…
08-10 00:06:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	11	15¢	$2	0x3e3edc…
08-09 23:54:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0xef0f45…
08-09 23:48:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	46	15¢	$7	0xde42cc…
08-09 22:51:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	35	91¢	$31	0xee01cb…
08-09 22:47:45	btc updown 5m 1786315500	Up	SELL	9	29¢	$3	0x68a339…
08-09 22:46:06	btc updown 5m 1786315500	Up	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0x68ee8c…
08-09 22:43:45	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 26 20260808192512606	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xe4d920…
08-09 22:42:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	172	14¢	$24	0xf629d4…
08-09 21:51:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x8db661…
08-09 21:43:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	300	91¢	$273	0xc9107f…
08-09 21:40:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	249	89¢	$221	0x1340ab…
08-09 21:38:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0xfea0bc…
08-09 21:25:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0x33283a…
08-09 21:16:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	SELL	117	1¢	$2	0x42d380…
08-09 20:24:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x00dd19…
08-09 20:23:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xf5e01a…
08-09 20:23:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xc50c0f…
08-09 20:23:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	6	59¢	$3	0x0f824f…
08-09 19:32:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x551040…
08-09 18:38:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	556	2¢	$11	0x3ba4be…
08-09 18:14:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	284	60¢	$170	0x2b0cd6…
08-09 18:14:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x68da13…
08-09 18:12:37	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 31 20260808192512607	Yes	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x9a5774…
08-09 17:57:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	333	3¢	$10	0x49d897…
08-09 17:56:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	333	3¢	$9	0xa3ffdf…
08-09 17:40:57	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7fd172…
08-09 17:40:57	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x730310…
08-09 17:40:57	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x381ee1…
08-09 17:40:57	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x294a4d…