Humongous-Maybe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.17K

Unrealized P&L

-$378

Hit rate

60.1%

Resolved

1,425

Trades

28,112

lifetime

Volume

$1.04M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

$10.9K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-15 20:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 270 days

Categories

Politics

78% 54% +$1,591

Other

17% 51% -$4,985

Crypto

3% 48% +$824

Sports

1% 62% +$1,561

Tech

1% 60% -$158

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 267 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-5,350	-$4,754	94¢	$-5003	-$249	10-31 00:50
FAA outage attributed to hack?	No	+464	$415	98¢	$456	+$41	11-14 01:45
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in November?	No	+688	$488	62¢	$423	-$65	11-15 03:11
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	-383	-$371	99¢	$-378	-$7	08-12 19:37
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?	No	+381	$373	98¢	$374	+$1	10-30 00:05
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	+371	$339	98¢	$363	+$24	11-13 21:19
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	-364	-$345	100¢	$-363	-$18	08-14 10:04
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	-358	-$331	98¢	$-352	-$21	10-29 17:17
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-320	-$307	99¢	$-318	-$11	06-06 08:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+222	$214	98¢	$217	+$4	10-29 23:55
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	+200	$192	98¢	$197	+$5	10-30 05:22
Will Tim Cook be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	No	+200	$192	98¢	$196	+$3	11-13 16:55
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in November?	No	+551	$265	32¢	$179	-$86	11-15 02:58
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+167	$163	99¢	$165	+$2	10-30 00:03
us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027	Yes	+277	$168	56¢	$154	-$14	11-15 07:12
Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	+156	$152	98¢	$153	+$1	11-14 01:22
Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	+176	$162	84¢	$148	-$15	11-15 19:20
Will 5 Jensen Huang affairs be reported by December 31?	No	+159	$148	92¢	$146	-$2	11-15 03:28
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	Yes	+511	$109	28¢	$143	+$34	11-15 04:15
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-139	-$114	97¢	$-136	-$22	10-29 00:41
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	+164	$122	74¢	$121	-$1	10-29 23:25
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+119	$110	92¢	$110	+$1	11-15 20:25
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+111	$107	98¢	$108	+$2	10-29 23:57
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+151	$106	70¢	$105	-$1	10-30 23:23
Will it be confirmed that a problem with the FAA's SMART air traffic management system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13?	No	+105	$103	98¢	$102	-$1	11-14 12:05
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	+104	$83	96¢	$100	+$17	10-18 11:59
Will Colette Kress be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	No	+112	$99	89¢	$100	+$1	11-13 16:56
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	-100	-$90	98¢	$-98	-$8	10-29 17:17
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$91	96¢	$96	+$5	08-18 00:17
will trump visit north korea by december 31	No	+100	$94	96¢	$96	+$2	08-18 00:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	799	$55.2K	34,782	40,133	-5,350	open	—	10-31 00:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	319	$40.8K	38,679	38,047	+633	Yes	+$1,158	06-17 23:58
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	193	$38.1K	19,685	19,678	+6	No	-$34	02-13 04:54
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	135	$18.8K	13,167	13,197	-30	No	-$25	02-28 06:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	240	$17.7K	17,132	17,610	-479	Yes	-$277	04-08 01:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	213	$16.7K	13,995	14,295	-300	Yes	+$1,431	06-16 03:26
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	211	$15.2K	18,042	17,938	+103	Yes	+$83	02-28 04:48
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	349	$13.2K	15,496	16,760	-1,264	Yes	+$234	03-12 20:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	353	$11.5K	16,583	16,831	-248	No	-$295	05-31 01:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	158	$10.7K	12,147	9,110	+3,037	Yes	+$181	04-08 20:45
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	321	$10.7K	12,792	12,326	+465	Yes	-$37	08-11 22:59
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	23	$10.4K	5,367	5,367	+0	No	+$97	02-10 00:04
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	87	$10.3K	9,627	9,133	+495	Yes	+$338	07-20 21:28
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	170	$10.0K	11,277	9,059	+2,218	Yes	+$546	04-08 00:58
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	265	$10.0K	10,599	10,599	+0	No	+$171	03-31 01:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	160	$9.8K	38,490	11,453	+27,037	Yes	+$63	03-01 02:01
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	148	$9.6K	9,183	9,456	-273	Yes	+$46	04-22 09:23
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	47	$9.5K	4,715	4,831	-115	Yes	+$56	04-12 22:34
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	127	$9.3K	18,848	18,279	+569	No	+$856	06-04 00:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	76	$8.9K	4,542	4,719	-177	No	+$110	04-16 19:58
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	167	$8.4K	11,148	11,670	-522	Yes	+$553	04-07 23:16
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	58	$7.7K	5,528	3,584	+1,944	Yes	+$21	04-21 00:02
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	66	$7.6K	4,063	4,063	+0	No	+$278	02-22 18:03
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	113	$7.6K	4,639	4,639	-0	No	+$191	03-07 14:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	120	$6.5K	12,211	9,607	+2,605	No	-$796	04-28 23:50
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	128	$6.5K	5,123	5,166	-43	Yes	-$92	04-16 19:48
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	120	$6.4K	7,649	6,385	+1,264	No	-$81	02-21 01:07
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	83	$6.4K	6,220	4,953	+1,267	open	—	10-27 06:30
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	166	$6.2K	10,120	9,480	+640	No	-$452	03-31 02:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	91	$5.9K	9,824	9,824	+0	No	-$1,291	06-23 09:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-15 20:25:37	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	18	92¢	$17	0x4d1f96…
11-15 19:51:16	Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	5	55¢	$2	0x96a34a…
11-15 19:39:16	Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0x8c5631…
11-15 19:29:16	Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	46	76¢	$35	0x5300b4…
11-15 19:25:35	Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xc87faf…
11-15 19:25:23	Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x26364a…
11-15 19:20:59	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	56	80¢	$45	0xe67c27…
11-15 19:20:35	Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	81¢	$37	0xb99b44…
11-15 19:15:17	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	Yes	SELL	703	15¢	$109	0x6a07f7…
11-15 19:07:35	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	84	12¢	$10	0x9dbc7c…
11-15 17:57:56	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	No	BUY	0	67¢	$0	0xa618bc…
11-15 17:53:31	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	No	BUY	38	67¢	$25	0x22f7cf…
11-15 17:53:16	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	No	BUY	26	67¢	$17	0x47930b…
11-15 17:53:14	Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x3dbce4…
11-15 17:31:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x7eecb4…
11-15 17:31:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0x3e7bd3…
11-15 17:29:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x8d50e4…
11-15 17:28:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0x44087a…
11-15 17:03:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xee357d…
11-15 16:10:52	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xefcca0…
11-15 16:10:52	Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	BUY	30	39¢	$11	0xeae508…
11-15 16:02:11	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xd08de7…
11-15 15:41:11	Will Jensen Huang rejoin NVIDIA by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0xdcde53…
11-15 12:25:08	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0x989c16…
11-15 12:25:08	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x72f29f…
11-15 12:20:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xe6d8b9…
11-15 11:10:26	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	92	8¢	$7	0x898fb8…
11-15 08:29:02	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	13	53¢	$7	0x061919…
11-15 08:26:43	Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	13	53¢	$7	0xeed862…
11-15 07:12:20	US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x04a854…
11-15 07:12:01	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xd9fc84…
11-15 06:59:01	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0xcc5725…
11-15 06:52:40	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	44	89¢	$39	0x5e7e1f…
11-15 06:44:40	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x001dbb…
11-15 06:39:20	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x05bf87…
11-15 06:30:40	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xfe1078…
11-15 06:22:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x9f90b9…
11-15 06:22:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x0dbcc9…
11-15 06:22:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x6531fe…
11-15 06:22:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x493329…
11-15 06:22:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x6b71f2…
11-15 06:21:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xb99a96…
11-15 06:21:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xaeca58…
11-15 06:21:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x9af508…
11-15 06:21:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xca7946…
11-15 06:21:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x0fc378…
11-15 06:20:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x843cfa…
11-15 06:20:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x837707…
11-15 06:20:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	76	4¢	$3	0x1ce0e3…
11-15 06:18:59	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	13	89¢	$11	0x41c257…
11-15 06:18:40	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	126	89¢	$112	0xf41b33…
11-15 05:38:59	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 November 9-15?	Yes	SELL	252	8¢	$20	0x453d84…
11-15 04:29:58	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 November 9-15?	Yes	SELL	118	8¢	$9	0x037f3d…
11-15 04:15:17	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	Yes	BUY	19	35¢	$7	0x45a9dd…
11-15 04:14:37	Will Iran target Bahrain by November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0xd0f867…
11-15 04:12:56	Will Iran target Bahrain by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0xeb8bea…
11-15 04:12:37	Will Iran target Bahrain by November 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	91¢	$17	0x7121e8…
11-15 03:46:58	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	Yes	SELL	32	40¢	$13	0x73d80e…
11-15 03:45:37	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	Yes	BUY	32	41¢	$13	0xd9a981…
11-15 03:29:56	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 November 9-15?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x74f11f…
11-15 03:29:56	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 November 9-15?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x29d18c…
11-15 03:28:37	Will 5 Jensen Huang affairs be reported by December 31?	No	SELL	4	91¢	$4	0x88baf9…
11-15 03:24:35	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 November 9-15?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x84dd4f…
11-15 03:19:56	Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 November 9-15?	Yes	BUY	69	15¢	$10	0xc9106d…
11-15 03:11:35	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in November?	No	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0x29ce05…
11-15 03:11:16	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in November?	No	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0xc8dcb3…
11-15 02:58:55	Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in November?	No	SELL	262	31¢	$82	0x54d31c…
11-15 02:32:56	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November?	Yes	BUY	213	6¢	$12	0xde365a…
11-15 02:31:56	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in November?	Yes	BUY	496	9¢	$43	0x0e2483…
11-15 02:25:47	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in November?	No	BUY	128	61¢	$78	0x696f9f…
11-15 02:25:44	Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in November?	No	BUY	104	39¢	$41	0x593cd6…
11-15 02:19:35	Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in November?	No	BUY	104	39¢	$41	0xe4c722…
11-15 02:18:16	Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in November?	No	BUY	104	36¢	$37	0xc1cf17…
11-15 02:07:16	Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in November?	No	BUY	500	46¢	$228	0x5f36ff…
11-15 01:58:37	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in November?	No	BUY	41	76¢	$31	0xd2d6af…
11-15 01:56:14	Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in November?	No	BUY	459	75¢	$345	0xfca0b5…
11-15 01:41:55	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xd913b6…
11-15 01:36:34	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	37	90¢	$33	0x89eea7…
11-15 01:34:55	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	19	90¢	$17	0x7985a4…
11-15 01:34:34	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	19	90¢	$17	0xc72872…
11-15 01:29:35	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	29	90¢	$26	0xe7f5ef…
11-15 01:29:14	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	No	SELL	409	89¢	$365	0xab2442…
11-15 01:27:14	Will there be no new be CEO of NVIDIA by December 31, 2028?	Yes	BUY	618	10¢	$64	0x57981a…
11-15 00:37:13	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xd0621d…
11-15 00:37:13	US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x464b94…
11-14 23:02:02	FAA outage attributed to a foreign actor?	No	SELL	355	98¢	$349	0xf535f9…
11-14 23:02:02	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?	Yes	SELL	188	41¢	$77	0xc969f6…
11-14 23:02:02	Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	37	87¢	$32	0x61b157…
11-14 12:05:35	Will it be confirmed that a problem with the FAA's SMART air traffic management system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x029a8b…
11-14 12:01:58	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x8c0be8…
11-14 12:01:58	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x0b31ce…
11-14 11:45:37	Will it be confirmed that a problem with the FAA's SMART air traffic management system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x29b1c3…
11-14 11:19:16	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	Yes	SELL	22	26¢	$6	0xfb39ef…
11-14 11:19:16	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	Yes	SELL	17	26¢	$4	0x3f1483…
11-14 11:14:56	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xe6efaf…
11-14 11:14:56	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x693272…
11-14 11:10:14	Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	No	BUY	37	5¢	$2	0xab5bbd…
11-14 11:09:56	Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	No	BUY	109	5¢	$5	0x620249…
11-14 10:58:16	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	Yes	SELL	9	25¢	$2	0x16584c…
11-14 10:35:16	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xb6022e…