Humongous-Maybe — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$408

Unrealized P&L

+$81

Hit rate

51.8%

Resolved (30d)

115

Trades (30d)

1,729

27,793 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$34.0K

$1.03M lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

$9.31K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-02 19:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 263 days

Categories

Politics

78% 54% +$1,604

Other

17% 52% -$4,860

Crypto

3% 48% +$824

Sports

1% 62% +$1,561

Tech

1% 60% -$158

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 267 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-5,350	-$4,754	88¢	$-4735	+$19	10-31 00:50
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	-383	-$371	98¢	$-375	-$4	08-12 19:37
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?	No	+381	$373	97¢	$370	-$2	10-30 00:05
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	-364	-$345	100¢	$-363	-$18	08-14 10:04
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	-358	-$331	98¢	$-351	-$19	10-29 17:17
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-320	-$307	99¢	$-317	-$10	06-06 08:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+222	$214	98¢	$217	+$4	10-29 23:55
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	+200	$192	98¢	$195	+$3	10-30 05:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+261	$159	72¢	$187	+$27	10-30 06:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	+394	$144	46¢	$183	+$39	10-30 00:50
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+167	$163	98¢	$164	+$2	10-30 00:03
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	-139	-$114	97¢	$-135	-$22	10-29 00:41
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	+145	$133	90¢	$131	-$2	11-01 06:24
Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	+134	$130	97¢	$130	$0	10-29 22:33
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	No	+164	$122	70¢	$116	-$6	10-29 23:25
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+111	$107	97¢	$107	+$1	10-29 23:57
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	+104	$83	96¢	$99	+$16	10-18 11:59
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	-100	-$90	98¢	$-98	-$7	10-29 17:17
will trump visit north korea by december 31	No	+100	$94	96¢	$96	+$2	08-18 00:46
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	No	+100	$61	94¢	$94	+$33	08-19 15:30
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$91	92¢	$93	+$2	08-18 00:17
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+151	$106	60¢	$91	-$15	10-30 23:23
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Yes	+100	$79	88¢	$88	+$8	10-18 23:29
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	+90	$83	96¢	$86	+$3	08-02 18:32
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+93	$82	93¢	$86	+$4	10-10 15:17
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	-94	-$78	91¢	$-85	-$7	06-15 21:22
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+911	$57	9¢	$84	+$27	10-29 23:27
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	+84	$78	97¢	$82	+$4	10-23 10:03
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	+78	$76	98¢	$76	$0	10-27 01:58
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	+78	$75	96¢	$75	+$0	08-11 01:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	799	$55.2K	34,782	40,133	-5,350	open	—	10-31 00:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	319	$40.8K	38,679	38,047	+633	Yes	+$1,158	06-17 23:58
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	193	$38.1K	19,685	19,678	+6	No	-$34	02-13 04:54
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	135	$18.8K	13,167	13,197	-30	No	-$25	02-28 06:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	240	$17.7K	17,132	17,610	-479	Yes	-$277	04-08 01:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	213	$16.7K	13,995	14,295	-300	Yes	+$1,431	06-16 03:26
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	211	$15.2K	18,042	17,938	+103	Yes	+$83	02-28 04:48
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	349	$13.2K	15,496	16,760	-1,264	Yes	+$234	03-12 20:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	353	$11.5K	16,583	16,831	-248	No	-$295	05-31 01:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	158	$10.7K	12,147	9,110	+3,037	Yes	+$181	04-08 20:45
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	321	$10.7K	12,792	12,326	+465	Yes	-$37	08-11 22:59
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	23	$10.4K	5,367	5,367	+0	No	+$97	02-10 00:04
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	87	$10.3K	9,627	9,133	+495	Yes	+$338	07-20 21:28
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	170	$10.0K	11,277	9,059	+2,218	Yes	+$546	04-08 00:58
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	265	$10.0K	10,599	10,599	+0	No	+$171	03-31 01:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	160	$9.8K	38,490	11,453	+27,037	Yes	+$63	03-01 02:01
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	148	$9.6K	9,183	9,456	-273	Yes	+$46	04-22 09:23
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	47	$9.5K	4,715	4,831	-115	Yes	+$56	04-12 22:34
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	127	$9.3K	18,848	18,279	+569	No	+$856	06-04 00:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	76	$8.9K	4,542	4,719	-177	No	+$110	04-16 19:58
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	167	$8.4K	11,148	11,670	-522	Yes	+$553	04-07 23:16
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	58	$7.7K	5,528	3,584	+1,944	Yes	+$21	04-21 00:02
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	66	$7.6K	4,063	4,063	+0	No	+$278	02-22 18:03
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	113	$7.6K	4,639	4,639	-0	No	+$191	03-07 14:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	120	$6.5K	12,211	9,607	+2,605	No	-$796	04-28 23:50
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	128	$6.5K	5,123	5,166	-43	Yes	-$92	04-16 19:48
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	120	$6.4K	7,649	6,385	+1,264	No	-$81	02-21 01:07
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	83	$6.4K	6,220	4,953	+1,267	open	—	10-27 06:30
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	166	$6.2K	10,120	9,480	+640	No	-$452	03-31 02:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	91	$5.9K	9,824	9,824	+0	No	-$1,291	06-23 09:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 19:19:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x88469e…
11-02 19:18:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0xa66abe…
11-02 19:18:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	44¢	$1	0xd80bf2…
11-02 19:18:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0xd13f0c…
11-02 19:18:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	43¢	$1	0x79d88c…
11-02 19:18:09	Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	No	BUY	88	65¢	$57	0x87151a…
11-02 18:37:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	17¢	$1	0xa4cf5a…
11-02 18:35:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	18¢	$2	0x9f9b9c…
11-02 18:11:52	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x96b7da…
11-02 17:57:52	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	SELL	28	6¢	$2	0x231ba7…
11-02 16:42:24	Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Yes	BUY	52	21¢	$11	0x8eb50f…
11-02 15:56:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x7a1fcb…
11-02 15:24:09	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x915e40…
11-02 15:14:46	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x0f0fdf…
11-02 15:13:45	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x824461…
11-02 15:08:48	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x35ea31…
11-02 15:08:04	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x522c75…
11-02 15:05:52	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0xad0fb8…
11-02 15:05:40	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0x1c9afe…
11-02 15:04:37	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	SELL	348	2¢	$7	0x2d9c2b…
11-02 15:04:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	44	23¢	$10	0xe4ec3a…
11-02 15:04:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	17¢	$6	0x4d9a82…
11-02 15:04:34	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x3111f8…
11-02 15:04:34	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x22c9ad…
11-02 15:04:34	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	246	2¢	$4	0x12e978…
11-02 15:04:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	78	23¢	$18	0x79b7ef…
11-01 18:09:33	Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by November 30?	Yes	BUY	56	97¢	$54	0x117200…
11-01 18:09:31	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0xee3c74…
11-01 18:09:31	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0x12abe7…
11-01 16:11:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	14¢	$21	0x4d4fed…
11-01 14:25:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	16¢	$6	0x83c2df…
11-01 14:06:10	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	183	16¢	$29	0x4cff59…
11-01 12:05:28	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xb7253f…
11-01 11:17:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	51	12¢	$6	0x2bc35f…
11-01 10:28:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	253	24¢	$61	0xfa0d44…
11-01 10:18:07	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	SELL	257	1¢	$3	0x239439…
11-01 07:54:48	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	BUY	91	6¢	$6	0x1f9fdf…
11-01 07:54:43	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	BUY	257	6¢	$16	0x5ba043…
11-01 06:24:42	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	145	92¢	$133	0xde4cbe…
11-01 06:24:42	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	50	11¢	$5	0xb730d0…
11-01 06:24:42	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	No	BUY	67	83¢	$56	0x4f449d…
11-01 06:24:42	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x13db8d…
11-01 06:24:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x053370…
11-01 01:34:54	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	SELL	46	2¢	$1	0x82e25f…
11-01 01:34:22	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	222	4¢	$9	0x5908ff…
11-01 01:16:16	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0xcd2a80…
11-01 01:13:13	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0xbfd60e…
11-01 00:40:33	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0xffc658…
11-01 00:37:52	U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x291d23…
11-01 00:00:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	85	12¢	$10	0x5b420c…
10-31 22:53:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	SELL	28	8¢	$2	0x83e7ec…
10-31 21:56:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	SELL	86	8¢	$7	0xa838a2…
10-31 21:54:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	SELL	130	8¢	$10	0xb498d9…
10-31 19:13:06	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0xd0a352…
10-31 19:11:07	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x0d329c…
10-31 19:11:06	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x178c80…
10-31 19:02:25	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0xbd97f5…
10-31 18:58:19	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x748c2f…
10-31 18:57:39	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x2ad2c3…
10-31 18:57:00	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0xe9059b…
10-31 18:52:27	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xfbb194…
10-31 18:31:46	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	97¢	$24	0xe93ce1…
10-31 17:44:37	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x40d88a…
10-31 17:43:48	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x303efe…
10-31 16:34:27	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x5eead7…
10-31 16:34:15	Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x37b71c…
10-31 14:26:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	32¢	$20	0x3c45c9…
10-31 08:50:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x82b981…
10-31 00:50:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	11	83¢	$9	0x1e55db…
10-31 00:16:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	97	8¢	$8	0xfc0165…
10-30 23:53:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x3121e6…
10-30 23:29:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x1fe28d…
10-30 23:23:01	Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	63¢	$9	0x090295…
10-30 21:54:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	500	12¢	$60	0xf03f4d…
10-30 21:46:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	68	50¢	$34	0x243e3c…
10-30 21:43:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	30¢	$57	0x63beeb…
10-30 20:21:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	116	24¢	$28	0x7cf467…
10-30 20:20:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	22	25¢	$6	0x1de43b…
10-30 18:53:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0xf4b538…
10-30 18:49:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	29¢	$4	0xb30a3a…
10-30 17:58:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	28¢	$1	0xefbbb7…
10-30 17:56:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	28¢	$1	0xad0e75…
10-30 17:49:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0x2bae4a…
10-30 17:46:55	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	85	28¢	$24	0xfeb6be…
10-30 11:32:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xe250d2…
10-30 11:11:58	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	40¢	$15	0x81102b…
10-30 11:11:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0x28fd61…
10-30 10:56:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	21	49¢	$10	0x9bf83e…
10-30 10:56:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	52	1¢	$1	0xb84e51…
10-30 10:56:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	290	1¢	$3	0x5b9e8a…
10-30 10:55:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	342	1¢	$3	0x941217…
10-30 10:28:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xe4a57f…
10-30 09:57:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	36	48¢	$17	0xcf5a9c…
10-30 09:57:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	31	48¢	$15	0x964c9a…
10-30 09:57:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	7	48¢	$3	0x49728e…
10-30 08:18:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x7c829c…
10-30 08:18:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x35c9a4…
10-30 08:18:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xe9e010…
10-30 08:18:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xcc96f0…
10-30 08:18:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0xc67018…