Realized P&L
+$16.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$812
Hit rate
63.0%
Resolved
2,049
Trades
236,794
lifetime
Volume
$2.16M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$2.84K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-30 09:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 242 days
Categories
Politics
61% 46% +$10,974
Other
37% 46% +$6,075
Tech
2% 43% -$656
Pop-Culture
0% 33% +$33
Sports
0% 69% +$423
Crypto
0% 29% -$49
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 795 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? Yes +2,232 $456 54¢ $1.2K +$741 10-24 16:40
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -1,483 -$273 18¢ $-274 -$1 10-30 00:18
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes -3,283 -$457 3¢ $-103 +$354 10-25 22:27
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +2,067 $105 5¢ $103 -$1 10-28 08:13
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -124 -$97 82¢ $-101 -$5 07-03 10:05
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes +1,728 $176 4¢ $78 -$98 10-28 00:46
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes -73 -$107 97¢ $-71 +$36 10-08 18:32
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No +1,050 $167 6¢ $68 -$99 10-28 03:41
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes +436 $56 15¢ $63 +$7 10-26 11:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +407 $62 14¢ $55 -$7 10-30 08:12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +1,484 $72 4¢ $53 -$19 10-29 20:41
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes +1,764 $76 2¢ $44 -$31 10-27 03:56
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +593 $47 7¢ $44 -$3 10-30 09:28
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? Yes +662 $48 6¢ $43 -$5 10-30 05:22
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No -42 -$41 99¢ $-42 $0 08-15 00:38
Blue wave in 2026? No +361 -$70 12¢ $42 +$112 10-30 09:52
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes +1,013 $73 4¢ $41 -$32 10-22 02:48
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +351 $149 12¢ $40 -$109 10-30 09:15
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? Yes +3,972 $88 1¢ $40 -$48 10-25 21:46
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +199 $104 18¢ $36 -$68 10-26 18:35
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No -39 -$37 91¢ $-36 +$1 10-07 10:18
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? No +250 $36 14¢ $35 -$1 10-27 07:42
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes -1,528 -$163 2¢ $-34 +$128 10-09 08:02
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? Yes +294 $70 11¢ $31 -$39 10-29 06:32
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes +329 $58 9¢ $30 -$29 10-30 05:52
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,220 $31 2¢ $29 -$3 10-30 00:05
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +94 -$34 30¢ $28 +$62 10-29 21:21
ukraine election called by december 31 2026 Yes +720 $53 4¢ $28 -$25 10-30 00:55
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes -210 -$30 13¢ $-27 +$2 10-29 13:49
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +187 $33 14¢ $26 -$7 10-30 04:08