Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$2,166
$15 in 24h
Trades
74
Unique wallets
27
Liquidity
$2,454
Latest YES mid
16¢
Latest NO mid
84¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-12 05:16
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $11 | $276 | $265 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 10 | $19 | $228 | $209 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | — | $277 | $277 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 6 | $11 | $1 | +$10 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $11 | — | +$11 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | — | $272 | $272 |
| Below median | 4 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $6 | $34 | $28 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 5 | $13 | $135 | $122 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $166 | $166 |
| unranked | 8 | $6 | $175 | $169 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imaginary-Closet 0x2bcd…cbfb | No | +173 | $151 | $151 | 2 | 06-02 15:30 |
| Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | +128 | $110 | $110 | 3 | 06-08 00:27 |
| Private-Eviction 0x07cf…a9fa | No | +69 | $58 | $78 | 5 | 06-04 14:02 |
| Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | +57 | $48 | $48 | 3 | 06-12 05:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | +50 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 06-02 09:47 |
| Inferior-Championship 0xd211…6eaa | Yes | +37 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-06 12:49 |
| Circular-Coverage 0x07e0…e1e8 | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 2 | 06-12 05:16 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-28 20:07 |
| Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 06-12 05:16 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 05:16:07 | (anonymous) 0xde2c…ce79 | No | SELL | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0x32e410… |
| 06-12 05:16:07 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0x32e410… |
| 06-12 05:16:04 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | No | SELL | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x8f4c25… |
| 06-12 05:16:04 | Circular-Coverage 0x07e0…e1e8 | No | BUY | 4 | 84¢ | $4 | 0x8f4c25… |
| 06-12 05:16:04 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0x8f4c25… |
| 06-12 05:16:04 | Vigilant-School 0x3cff…6fbd | No | BUY | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0x8f4c25… |
| 06-12 05:15:55 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x51ca54… |
| 06-12 05:15:55 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x51ca54… |
| 06-11 22:16:46 | Mammoth-Hop 0x95dc…4b45 | No | SELL | 16 | 84¢ | $13 | 0xe22073… |
| 06-11 22:16:46 | Circular-Coverage 0x07e0…e1e8 | No | BUY | 16 | 84¢ | $13 | 0xe22073… |
| 06-11 22:07:12 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 7 | 86¢ | $6 | 0x6b042c… |
| 06-11 22:07:12 | Handmade-Burst 0x4f9a…436d | Yes | SELL | 7 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x6b042c… |
| 06-08 20:03:51 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 50 | 84¢ | $42 | 0x25bd93… |
| 06-08 20:03:51 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 50 | 84¢ | $42 | 0x25bd93… |
| 06-08 20:03:51 | Second-Domain 0x682d…4cd6 | No | SELL | 100 | 84¢ | $84 | 0x25bd93… |
| 06-08 00:27:43 | Optimal-Charter 0xab18…467d | No | SELL | 30 | 86¢ | $26 | 0x1cca9c… |
| 06-08 00:27:43 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | BUY | 30 | 86¢ | $26 | 0x1cca9c… |
| 06-06 12:49:25 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | BUY | 37 | 86¢ | $32 | 0xcda7c3… |
| 06-06 12:49:25 | Inferior-Championship 0xd211…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 37 | 14¢ | $5 | 0xcda7c3… |
| 06-04 21:14:27 | Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | BUY | 61 | 86¢ | $52 | 0x6140cc… |
| 06-04 21:14:27 | Amazing-Counseling 0xa639…f5e8 | No | SELL | 61 | 86¢ | $52 | 0x6140cc… |
| 06-04 21:11:33 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 100 | 87¢ | $87 | 0x2a7934… |
| 06-04 21:11:33 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 39 | 13¢ | $5 | 0x2a7934… |
| 06-04 21:11:33 | Amazing-Counseling 0xa639…f5e8 | No | BUY | 61 | 87¢ | $53 | 0x2a7934… |
| 06-04 14:02:37 | Private-Eviction 0x07cf…a9fa | No | SELL | 11 | 88¢ | $10 | 0x269126… |
| 06-04 14:02:37 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | SELL | 11 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x269126… |
| 06-02 22:25:29 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | SELL | 12 | 88¢ | $11 | 0xc10bbc… |
| 06-02 22:25:29 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | SELL | 12 | 12¢ | $1 | 0xc10bbc… |
| 06-02 15:30:32 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | SELL | 6 | 88¢ | $5 | 0x57c197… |
| 06-02 15:30:32 | Imaginary-Closet 0x2bcd…cbfb | No | BUY | 6 | 88¢ | $5 | 0x57c197… |
| 06-02 11:09:52 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | SELL | 41 | 13¢ | $5 | 0x44439d… |
| 06-02 11:09:52 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 80 | 87¢ | $70 | 0x44439d… |
| 06-02 11:09:52 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 39 | 13¢ | $5 | 0x44439d… |
| 06-02 09:47:11 | Imaginary-Closet 0x2bcd…cbfb | No | BUY | 168 | 87¢ | $146 | 0x0d5274… |
| 06-02 09:47:11 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 12¢ | $6 | 0x0d5274… |
| 06-02 09:47:11 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 39 | 13¢ | $5 | 0x0d5274… |
| 06-02 09:47:11 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | BUY | 53 | 13¢ | $7 | 0x0d5274… |
| 06-02 09:47:11 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | SELL | 26 | 86¢ | $22 | 0x0d5274… |
| 05-31 13:03:02 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | SELL | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x18d194… |
| 05-31 13:03:02 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | SELL | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x8559ac… |
| 05-31 13:03:02 | (anonymous) 0xe730…f0bb | Yes | SELL | 20 | 14¢ | $3 | 0x8559ac… |
| 05-31 13:03:02 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 14¢ | $3 | 0x18d194… |
| 05-31 13:02:55 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xcc272b… |
| 05-31 13:02:55 | (anonymous) 0xe730…f0bb | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x380bfa… |
| 05-31 13:02:55 | Private-Eviction 0x07cf…a9fa | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0xcc272b… |
| 05-31 13:02:55 | Private-Eviction 0x07cf…a9fa | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0x380bfa… |
| 05-31 12:57:10 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | SELL | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x2cf7fe… |
| 05-31 12:57:10 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | SELL | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0xf6f374… |
| 05-31 12:57:10 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 14¢ | $3 | 0x2cf7fe… |
| 05-31 12:57:10 | (anonymous) 0xe730…f0bb | Yes | SELL | 20 | 14¢ | $3 | 0xf6f374… |
| 05-31 12:57:01 | (anonymous) 0xe730…f0bb | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xc13b4e… |
| 05-31 12:57:01 | Private-Eviction 0x07cf…a9fa | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0xc13b4e… |
| 05-31 12:57:01 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xcfd654… |
| 05-31 12:57:01 | Private-Eviction 0x07cf…a9fa | No | BUY | 20 | 85¢ | $17 | 0xcfd654… |
| 05-30 16:52:51 | Feline-Resemblance 0xd6a8…58fd | Yes | SELL | 300 | 16¢ | $48 | 0x6783dc… |
| 05-30 16:52:51 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 300 | 84¢ | $252 | 0x6783dc… |
| 05-30 14:44:54 | Big-Hearted-Cockpit-Standing 0x6300…41ad | Yes | SELL | 107 | 14¢ | $15 | 0x572d19… |
| 05-30 14:44:54 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 34 | 15¢ | $5 | 0x572d19… |
| 05-30 14:44:54 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | SELL | 73 | 86¢ | $63 | 0x572d19… |
| 05-29 20:06:02 | Unpleasant-Facelift 0x9a01…0c8d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x709801… |
| 05-29 20:06:02 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0x709801… |
| 05-28 20:07:16 | Instructive-Friction 0xc54d…8be1 | No | SELL | 485 | 82¢ | $399 | 0x03f6d0… |
| 05-28 20:07:16 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 93 | 81¢ | $75 | 0x03f6d0… |
| 05-28 20:07:16 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 10 | 82¢ | $8 | 0x03f6d0… |
| 05-28 20:07:16 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 33 | 18¢ | $6 | 0x03f6d0… |
| 05-28 20:07:16 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | BUY | 200 | 83¢ | $166 | 0x03f6d0… |
| 05-28 18:36:49 | (anonymous) 0xde2c…ce79 | No | SELL | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0x4a5750… |
| 05-28 18:36:49 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 1 | 16¢ | $0 | 0x4a5750… |
| 05-28 18:36:48 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | No | SELL | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x329b6a… |
| 05-28 18:36:48 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x329b6a… |
| 05-28 18:36:39 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | SELL | 1 | 86¢ | $1 | 0x91ead6… |
| 05-28 18:36:39 | (anonymous) 0xde2c…ce79 | No | BUY | 1 | 86¢ | $1 | 0x91ead6… |
| 05-28 18:36:35 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | No | BUY | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x63907f… |
| 05-28 18:36:35 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | SELL | 20 | 86¢ | $17 | 0x63907f… |