Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$10,299
$15 in 24h
Trades
214
Unique wallets
66
Liquidity
$2,454
Latest YES mid
12¢
Latest NO mid
88¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-23 14:33
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 11 | $37 | $1.2K | $1.2K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 21 | $57 | $1.1K | $1.1K |
| 🐟 Fish | 19 | $7 | $1.4K | $1.3K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 15 | $16 | $1.0K | $1.0K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 8 | $30 | $315 | $285 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | — | $299 | $299 |
| Median | 6 | — | $317 | $317 |
| Below median | 7 | $18 | $769 | $751 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $6 | $34 | $28 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 8 | $41 | $206 | $165 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 4 | $7 | $867 | $860 |
| unranked | 25 | $15 | $1.9K | $1.9K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| albert.c 0x0655…475d | No | +885 | $800 | $800 | 3 | 07-12 14:24 |
| Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | +369 | $321 | $978 | 20 | 07-15 12:55 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +362 | $326 | $326 | 2 | 07-15 12:18 |
| (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | +283 | $264 | $1,273 | 11 | 07-23 14:33 |
| Far-Flung-Transom 0xf6c6…7d80 | No | +242 | $220 | $220 | 1 | 07-08 21:09 |
| Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | +183 | $158 | $248 | 8 | 07-15 12:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6cf…b265 | No | +174 | $157 | $157 | 1 | 07-02 14:36 |
| Imaginary-Closet 0x2bcd…cbfb | No | +173 | $151 | $151 | 2 | 06-02 15:30 |
| Scared-Administrator 0xb8ad…ff58 | No | +128 | $110 | $110 | 3 | 06-08 00:27 |
| Golden-Anguish 0x23a8…8004 | No | +76 | $65 | $65 | 1 | 06-20 00:21 |
| Optimal-Charter 0xab18…467d | No | +70 | $64 | $116 | 2 | 07-04 21:28 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +70 | $61 | $61 | 8 | 07-15 12:55 |
| Ill-Fated-Browsing 0x0fe5…91aa | No | +67 | $60 | $60 | 2 | 07-21 16:49 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +41 | $4 | $4 | 3 | 07-12 20:39 |
| Inferior-Championship 0xd211…6eaa | Yes | +37 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-06 12:49 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +30 | $27 | $27 | 1 | 07-15 12:18 |
| Circular-Coverage 0x07e0…e1e8 | No | +20 | $17 | $17 | 2 | 06-12 05:16 |
| Burly-Chronometer 0x0524…1479 | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 07-11 06:44 |
| Private-Eviction 0x07cf…a9fa | No | +18 | $15 | $121 | 8 | 06-23 22:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x3413…d913 | Yes | +15 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-24 14:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 07-15 12:58 |
| Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 07-15 12:21 |
| Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | +9 | $1 | $3 | 2 | 07-04 21:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x7e62…6cf7 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-20 21:01 |
| (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | +1 | $-0 | $12 | 2 | 06-20 17:43 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 14:33:15 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 46 | 12¢ | $6 | 0x382ea9… |
| 07-23 14:33:15 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 46 | 88¢ | $40 | 0x382ea9… |
| 07-22 08:21:48 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | BUY | 22 | 87¢ | $19 | 0x88eb5a… |
| 07-22 08:21:48 | Automatic-Riding 0xa575…f2d0 | No | SELL | 22 | 87¢ | $19 | 0x88eb5a… |
| 07-21 16:49:15 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 35 | 11¢ | $4 | 0x421182… |
| 07-21 16:49:15 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | No | SELL | 21 | 89¢ | $19 | 0x421182… |
| 07-21 16:49:15 | Ill-Fated-Browsing 0x0fe5…91aa | No | BUY | 56 | 89¢ | $50 | 0x421182… |
| 07-21 16:48:49 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 11 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x9e02fd… |
| 07-21 16:48:49 | Ill-Fated-Browsing 0x0fe5…91aa | No | BUY | 11 | 89¢ | $10 | 0x9e02fd… |
| 07-20 21:01:03 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x44d406… |
| 07-20 21:01:03 | (anonymous) 0x7e62…6cf7 | No | BUY | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x44d406… |
| 07-15 12:58:34 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x9d493e… |
| 07-15 12:58:34 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0x9d493e… |
| 07-15 12:55:32 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 100 | 86¢ | $86 | 0xf60ae2… |
| 07-15 12:55:32 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 33 | 86¢ | $28 | 0xf60ae2… |
| 07-15 12:55:32 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | SELL | 133 | 86¢ | $114 | 0xf60ae2… |
| 07-15 12:55:26 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0x5d5c73… |
| 07-15 12:55:26 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 50 | 87¢ | $44 | 0x5d5c73… |
| 07-15 12:55:26 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | SELL | 170 | 87¢ | $148 | 0x5d5c73… |
| 07-15 12:55:26 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 100 | 87¢ | $87 | 0x5d5c73… |
| 07-15 12:28:04 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 40 | 88¢ | $35 | 0x1f8216… |
| 07-15 12:28:04 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 10 | 88¢ | $9 | 0x1f8216… |
| 07-15 12:28:04 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | SELL | 109 | 88¢ | $96 | 0x1f8216… |
| 07-15 12:28:04 | (anonymous) 0xd43f…c66b | Yes | SELL | 9 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x1f8216… |
| 07-15 12:28:04 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 50 | 88¢ | $44 | 0x1f8216… |
| 07-15 12:21:50 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | BUY | 10 | 89¢ | $9 | 0x13700d… |
| 07-15 12:21:50 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 10 | 89¢ | $9 | 0x13700d… |
| 07-15 12:19:43 | (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | BUY | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0x91403a… |
| 07-15 12:19:43 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0x91403a… |
| 07-15 12:18:47 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 60 | 88¢ | $53 | 0x1a3f37… |
| 07-15 12:18:47 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | No | SELL | 60 | 88¢ | $53 | 0x1a3f37… |
| 07-15 12:18:38 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 33 | 89¢ | $29 | 0x8e7e92… |
| 07-15 12:18:38 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 89¢ | $27 | 0x8e7e92… |
| 07-15 12:18:38 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 3 | 89¢ | $2 | 0x8e7e92… |
| 07-15 12:18:37 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 160 | 90¢ | $144 | 0x1eabb9… |
| 07-15 12:18:37 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 100 | 90¢ | $90 | 0x1eabb9… |
| 07-15 12:18:37 | Ugly-Platinum 0x5c91…5ccc | No | BUY | 60 | 90¢ | $54 | 0x1eabb9… |
| 07-15 12:18:34 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 53 | 91¢ | $48 | 0x836cff… |
| 07-15 12:18:34 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 53 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x836cff… |
| 07-15 12:18:07 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 175 | 91¢ | $159 | 0xbad75e… |
| 07-15 12:18:07 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | BUY | 412 | 91¢ | $375 | 0xbad75e… |
| 07-15 12:18:07 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 100 | 91¢ | $91 | 0xbad75e… |
| 07-15 12:18:07 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 102 | 9¢ | $9 | 0xbad75e… |
| 07-15 12:18:07 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 600 | 91¢ | $546 | 0xbad75e… |
| 07-15 12:18:07 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 1,389 | 91¢ | $1,264 | 0xbad75e… |
| 07-12 20:39:26 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x875098… |
| 07-12 20:39:26 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 71 | 91¢ | $65 | 0x875098… |
| 07-12 20:39:26 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 51 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x875098… |
| 07-12 14:24:07 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x6547f7… |
| 07-12 14:24:07 | albert.c 0x0655…475d | No | BUY | 330 | 91¢ | $300 | 0x6547f7… |
| 07-12 14:24:07 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 246 | 91¢ | $224 | 0x6547f7… |
| 07-12 14:24:07 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 24 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x6547f7… |
| 07-12 14:24:07 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | SELL | 3 | 91¢ | $2 | 0x6547f7… |
| 07-12 14:24:07 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | SELL | 38 | 91¢ | $35 | 0x6547f7… |
| 07-11 06:44:26 | Burly-Chronometer 0x0524…1479 | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xa65297… |
| 07-11 06:44:26 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xa65297… |
| 07-10 20:30:40 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 7 | 89¢ | $6 | 0x692f11… |
| 07-10 20:30:40 | (anonymous) 0x4ca9…7aa1 | No | SELL | 7 | 89¢ | $6 | 0x692f11… |
| 07-10 15:21:44 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 7 | 10¢ | $1 | 0xba0801… |
| 07-10 15:21:44 | (anonymous) 0x4ca9…7aa1 | No | BUY | 7 | 90¢ | $6 | 0xba0801… |
| 07-10 12:46:04 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | No | SELL | 50 | 89¢ | $44 | 0x7de8f7… |
| 07-10 12:46:04 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 40 | 11¢ | $4 | 0x7de8f7… |
| 07-10 12:46:04 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 10 | 89¢ | $9 | 0x7de8f7… |
| 07-10 10:03:34 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 187 | 89¢ | $167 | 0xfa68cf… |
| 07-10 10:03:34 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 10 | 89¢ | $9 | 0xfa68cf… |
| 07-10 10:03:34 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | No | BUY | 50 | 89¢ | $44 | 0xfa68cf… |
| 07-10 10:03:34 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 247 | 89¢ | $220 | 0xfa68cf… |
| 07-10 10:03:20 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 10¢ | $5 | 0x8cf14f… |
| 07-10 10:03:20 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 247 | 90¢ | $223 | 0x8cf14f… |
| 07-10 10:03:20 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | BUY | 100 | 90¢ | $90 | 0x8cf14f… |
| 07-10 10:03:20 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 103 | 10¢ | $10 | 0x8cf14f… |
| 07-10 10:03:20 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 500 | 90¢ | $450 | 0x8cf14f… |
| 07-08 21:09:16 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 51 | 10¢ | $5 | 0x129fad… |
| 07-08 21:09:16 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 104 | 91¢ | $95 | 0x129fad… |
| 07-08 21:09:16 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | SELL | 87 | 91¢ | $79 | 0x129fad… |
| 07-08 21:09:16 | Far-Flung-Transom 0xf6c6…7d80 | No | BUY | 242 | 91¢ | $220 | 0x129fad… |
| 07-04 21:28:40 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | SELL | 29 | 91¢ | $27 | 0xda07d1… |
| 07-04 21:28:40 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xda07d1… |
| 07-04 21:28:40 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 51 | 10¢ | $5 | 0xda07d1… |
| 07-04 21:28:40 | Optimal-Charter 0xab18…467d | No | BUY | 100 | 90¢ | $90 | 0xda07d1… |
| 07-04 12:07:53 | albert.c 0x0655…475d | No | BUY | 330 | 91¢ | $300 | 0xbd1673… |
| 07-04 12:07:53 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 150 | 91¢ | $136 | 0xbd1673… |
| 07-04 12:07:53 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 56 | 9¢ | $5 | 0xbd1673… |
| 07-04 12:07:53 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | SELL | 50 | 91¢ | $45 | 0xbd1673… |
| 07-03 20:37:13 | Junior-Burn 0xc77b…a526 | No | SELL | 13 | 89¢ | $12 | 0x102c8a… |
| 07-03 20:37:13 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 13 | 11¢ | $1 | 0x102c8a… |
| 07-02 14:36:23 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 50 | 10¢ | $5 | 0xb21b2c… |
| 07-02 14:36:23 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | SELL | 50 | 90¢ | $45 | 0xb21b2c… |
| 07-02 14:36:23 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | SELL | 74 | 90¢ | $67 | 0xb21b2c… |
| 07-02 14:36:23 | (anonymous) 0xc6cf…b265 | No | BUY | 174 | 90¢ | $157 | 0xb21b2c… |
| 06-28 14:18:49 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 50 | 90¢ | $45 | 0x99c17d… |
| 06-28 14:18:49 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 10¢ | $5 | 0x99c17d… |
| 06-28 14:18:28 | albert.c 0x0655…475d | No | BUY | 224 | 89¢ | $200 | 0x4caee4… |
| 06-28 14:18:28 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 11¢ | $6 | 0x4caee4… |
| 06-28 14:18:28 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 54 | 90¢ | $49 | 0x4caee4… |
| 06-28 14:18:28 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 11¢ | $6 | 0x4caee4… |
| 06-28 00:16:04 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 82 | 11¢ | $9 | 0xd9f37c… |
| 06-28 00:16:04 | Grave-Combination 0x49b1…c280 | No | SELL | 82 | 89¢ | $73 | 0xd9f37c… |
| 06-28 00:16:02 | (anonymous) 0xd43f…c66b | Yes | BUY | 9 | 12¢ | $1 | 0xdaf836… |
| 06-28 00:16:02 | (anonymous) 0x1424…c73f | Yes | SELL | 196 | 12¢ | $24 | 0xdaf836… |