Long-Term-Overhead — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.79K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

8.3%

Resolved

Trades

21,993

lifetime

Volume

$1.95M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$89

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 08-11 00:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Other

61% 3% $-1,124

Politics

23% 14% $-297

Tech

7% 0% $-331

Sports

7% 0% $-37

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 293 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	90	$22.5K	23,549	23,549	+0	open	—	07-20 03:26
Fed rate hike in 2026?	28	$15.5K	16,407	17,144	-737	open	—	07-21 15:06
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	46	$15.4K	16,012	16,012	+0	open	—	08-05 18:50
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	55	$13.7K	13,448	13,448	+0	open	—	07-31 21:00
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	60	$13.7K	12,944	12,944	+0	open	—	08-09 10:13
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	46	$13.5K	12,425	12,425	+0	open	—	08-06 18:46
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	89	$12.5K	12,744	12,744	+0	open	—	08-07 19:28
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	49	$12.0K	10,348	10,348	+0	open	—	08-09 14:36
iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	100	$11.8K	11,267	11,267	+0	open	—	08-09 21:09
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	48	$11.7K	12,981	12,981	+0	open	—	08-10 07:41
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	43	$11.6K	11,661	11,661	+0	open	—	08-09 21:13
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	55	$11.3K	12,889	12,889	+0	open	—	07-28 19:56
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	32	$11.2K	12,389	12,389	+0	open	—	08-01 01:47
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	44	$10.1K	10,888	10,888	+0	open	—	07-26 18:10
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	40	$9.9K	10,781	11,021	-240	open	—	08-05 10:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	16	$9.8K	8,440	8,440	+0	open	—	05-18 19:09
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	43	$9.7K	10,476	10,476	+0	open	—	08-05 18:57
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	25	$9.6K	8,899	8,899	-0	open	—	07-21 15:41
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	21	$8.9K	9,286	9,286	+0	open	—	05-12 22:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	17	$8.5K	7,862	7,862	+0	open	—	05-17 22:05
Chirayu Rana sued?	22	$8.5K	6,352	6,090	+261	open	—	05-15 15:33
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	16	$8.4K	9,419	9,419	+0	open	—	05-10 17:53
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	10	$8.4K	8,297	8,297	+0	open	—	05-27 21:02
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	50	$7.7K	10,007	10,257	-250	open	—	08-10 07:41
tyler robinson convicted of homicide	24	$7.6K	6,954	6,954	+0	open	—	08-09 03:20
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	19	$7.5K	6,773	6,773	+0	open	—	06-04 11:58
spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	93	$7.5K	7,526	7,484	+42	open	—	06-29 18:54
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	38	$7.2K	6,444	6,444	+0	open	—	08-06 10:33
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	64	$7.2K	7,411	8,109	-698	open	—	08-08 17:18
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	33	$7.0K	6,487	6,487	-0	open	—	08-10 15:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 02:28:31	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	SELL	90	62¢	$56	0xd6fe65…
08-11 02:28:00	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	90	71¢	$64	0x82c4b2…
08-11 02:13:21	will wildcard make playoffs 20260810160605056	No	SELL	19	78¢	$15	0x035594…
08-11 01:43:01	will alex de minaur qualify for the nitto atp finals 2026 20260728191143801	Yes	SELL	45	53¢	$24	0xb1ac2d…
08-11 01:42:58	will alex de minaur qualify for the nitto atp finals 2026 20260728191143801	Yes	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xd78790…
08-11 01:42:51	will gamerlegion make playoffs 20260810160605044	Yes	BUY	33	41¢	$14	0x9bee2c…
08-11 01:24:55	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1480 by december 31 2026 20260804194832577	Yes	BUY	116	13¢	$15	0x26c601…
08-11 01:18:54	will wildcard make playoffs 20260810160605056	No	SELL	14	84¢	$11	0x979654…
08-11 01:18:52	will wildcard make playoffs 20260810160605056	No	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0xff42fc…
08-11 01:11:48	will ricardo quaresma attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630263	Yes	BUY	89	28¢	$25	0x888129…
08-11 01:02:12	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	200	24¢	$48	0x61b63d…
08-11 01:02:10	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x2d595e…
08-11 00:51:33	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0xbfc08c…
08-11 00:51:30	will edu aguirre attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260806200934310	Yes	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0x9e16ba…
08-11 00:48:16	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	No	SELL	34	71¢	$24	0x7baf82…
08-11 00:48:12	andrew tate released from custody by december 31 2026 20260719025109264	No	BUY	34	72¢	$24	0xb22c7e…
08-11 00:44:46	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	Yes	SELL	113	21¢	$24	0xc32362…
08-11 00:44:45	will sir alex ferguson attend cristiano ronaldos wedding 20260803185630262	Yes	BUY	113	22¢	$25	0x3f90cf…
08-11 00:31:19	will mouz make cs2 ewc grand finals 20260810162242404	No	SELL	33	87¢	$29	0x7223ad…
08-11 00:31:16	will mouz make cs2 ewc grand finals 20260810162242404	No	BUY	33	88¢	$29	0x9c6b41…
08-11 00:27:54	will ken martin cease to be dnc chair by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	29	41¢	$12	0x73fab8…
08-11 00:27:52	will ken martin cease to be dnc chair by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	29	41¢	$12	0x0096ab…
08-11 00:10:30	next mythos class model released by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0xd6fcc3…
08-11 00:10:28	next mythos class model released by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0x5516e0…
08-11 00:08:00	will russia enter hannivka by september 30 2026 20260729205140183	No	SELL	87	38¢	$33	0x100d58…
08-10 23:40:45	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	Yes	SELL	31	53¢	$16	0x5d25e1…
08-10 23:40:43	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	Yes	BUY	31	53¢	$16	0x5153c9…
08-10 23:31:24	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	35	25¢	$9	0xdd4cf5…
08-10 22:54:39	will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	Yes	SELL	69	34¢	$24	0xebf9e3…
08-10 22:54:36	will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	Yes	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0xe22f13…
08-10 22:52:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	SELL	415	41¢	$172	0x6df523…
08-10 22:52:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	No	BUY	415	42¢	$174	0x86dc87…
08-10 22:19:34	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	103	26¢	$27	0xae630b…
08-10 22:16:40	will kai or speed die to a witch 20260808122756578	Yes	SELL	18	24¢	$4	0x86272e…
08-10 22:16:39	will kai or speed die to a witch 20260808122756578	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0x09376d…
08-10 22:12:34	will russia enter hannivka by september 30 2026 20260729205140183	No	BUY	87	44¢	$38	0xf9facb…
08-10 22:09:54	will over 50 senators vote for the clarity act 20260729193533307	Yes	SELL	6	35¢	$2	0xeaa631…
08-10 22:09:52	will over 50 senators vote for the clarity act 20260729193533307	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xe49229…
08-10 21:45:46	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 18 20260808192512602	No	SELL	13	75¢	$10	0xae2236…
08-10 21:45:45	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 18 20260808192512602	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x0b21b4…
08-10 21:28:07	will furia make cs2 ewc grand finals 20260810162242396	No	SELL	191	80¢	$153	0x5a3bae…
08-10 21:24:42	will furia make cs2 ewc grand finals 20260810162242396	No	SELL	31	86¢	$27	0xa7b5b4…
08-10 21:24:39	will furia make cs2 ewc grand finals 20260810162242396	No	BUY	222	88¢	$195	0xd0a5bb…
08-10 20:59:27	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	SELL	58	24¢	$14	0xe1293c…
08-10 20:58:57	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	58	27¢	$16	0x3a16fc…
08-10 20:52:37	will team spirit make playoffs 20260810160605039	No	SELL	135	10¢	$14	0x6dcee3…
08-10 20:52:36	will team spirit make playoffs 20260810160605039	No	BUY	135	11¢	$15	0x5e1423…
08-10 20:47:15	will any former nba player be drafted 2027 wnba draft	Yes	SELL	23	5¢	$1	0xa34f62…
08-10 20:47:12	will any former nba player be drafted 2027 wnba draft	Yes	BUY	23	5¢	$1	0x79c2c9…
08-10 20:46:37	will grok 5 be released by december 31 2026 20260710195520922	Yes	SELL	25	61¢	$15	0x20a3da…
08-10 20:46:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	SELL	892	51¢	$457	0xe06d63…
08-10 20:46:34	will grok 5 be released by december 31 2026 20260710195520922	Yes	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0x31950c…
08-10 20:46:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31	No	BUY	892	52¢	$464	0x85c489…
08-10 20:27:37	will team falcons make playoffs 20260810160605040	No	SELL	33	14¢	$5	0x0ff3d3…
08-10 20:27:34	will team falcons make playoffs 20260810160605040	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x1fb9ef…
08-10 20:19:24	us x cuba economic deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	32	75¢	$24	0x0b96fd…
08-10 20:19:21	us x cuba economic deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	32	76¢	$24	0x2afab8…
08-10 20:12:16	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	45	43¢	$19	0x70ce22…
08-10 20:12:15	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	45	44¢	$20	0xa61eea…
08-10 20:10:04	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	Yes	SELL	208	23¢	$48	0xe06311…
08-10 20:10:01	will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	Yes	BUY	208	24¢	$50	0x37f724…
08-10 20:01:52	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	Yes	SELL	202	18¢	$36	0xa2ef02…
08-10 19:59:36	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	Yes	SELL	430	20¢	$85	0x21d96e…
08-10 19:59:33	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	Yes	BUY	632	21¢	$133	0x0fb833…
08-10 19:58:18	will a us iran deal in 2026 include surrender of iranian enriched uranium 20260623023201640	Yes	SELL	555	9¢	$50	0xff7072…
08-10 19:58:15	will a us iran deal in 2026 include surrender of iranian enriched uranium 20260623023201640	Yes	BUY	555	10¢	$56	0x0c8823…
08-10 19:44:16	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	SELL	43	54¢	$23	0x8de1fd…
08-10 19:11:12	Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $7B in 2026?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xc87125…
08-10 19:06:00	Natural Disaster in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	26¢	$4	0xc74c98…
08-10 19:05:57	Natural Disaster in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	27¢	$4	0x24e24f…
08-10 19:04:45	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	SELL	243	37¢	$90	0xadf93b…
08-10 19:03:55	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	BUY	243	41¢	$100	0xe91b72…
08-10 19:03:07	iran full airspace closure by september 30 20260727170320670	Yes	SELL	566	17¢	$96	0x1cd6b1…
08-10 18:23:49	will andrew scott be nominated for best actor at the 99th academy awards	No	SELL	111	25¢	$28	0x7c912c…
08-10 18:11:55	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	SELL	56	75¢	$42	0xa489f5…
08-10 18:11:52	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	56	77¢	$43	0xd69cdf…
08-10 18:00:52	will kai or speed die to a ghast 20260806175301189	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0xe31eca…
08-10 17:30:09	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xd447c5…
08-10 17:30:06	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0xa8e8b2…
08-10 17:22:48	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	30	15¢	$4	0xaa7137…
08-10 16:53:01	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	BUY	602	17¢	$102	0x5dd04f…
08-10 16:52:49	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0xfedfde…
08-10 16:52:48	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0xade380…
08-10 16:35:25	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	Yes	SELL	169	58¢	$98	0x59ffe2…
08-10 16:35:22	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	Yes	BUY	169	59¢	$100	0xfdf78a…
08-10 16:31:39	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	SELL	33	67¢	$22	0xfc9000…
08-10 16:31:36	russia elections united russia wins every region	Yes	BUY	33	67¢	$22	0xc998de…
08-10 16:19:27	will the serbian national assembly be dissolved by august 31 20260629164744651	No	SELL	40	71¢	$28	0x213fbe…
08-10 16:18:49	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	Yes	SELL	36	27¢	$10	0x15ad50…
08-10 16:18:46	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	Yes	BUY	36	29¢	$10	0xa2a48b…
08-10 15:57:21	vik quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 18 2026 1pt24	No	BUY	65	22¢	$14	0xa43d9c…
08-10 15:50:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	30	20¢	$6	0x6d5097…
08-10 15:50:24	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	300	22¢	$66	0xbe6676…
08-10 15:49:49	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	55	24¢	$13	0x31d7f9…
08-10 15:49:48	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	217	19¢	$41	0xfe0f59…
08-10 15:49:36	will the serbian national assembly be dissolved by august 31 20260629164744651	No	SELL	80	71¢	$57	0x19bbe2…
08-10 15:49:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	642	58¢	$375	0x0558da…
08-10 15:49:06	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	SELL	72	62¢	$45	0x47ac61…
08-10 15:48:51	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	No	BUY	714	67¢	$478	0x57d260…
08-10 15:46:03	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	Yes	SELL	95	62¢	$59	0x560017…