Unlucky-Comparison — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$454

Unrealized P&L

+$544

Hit rate

87.7%

Resolved

679

Trades

9,015

lifetime

Volume

$235.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$13.2K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 09:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 129 days

Categories

Other

70% 86% +$2,431

Politics

16% 79% -$1,232

Crypto

13% 86% -$725

Tech

1% 67% -$127

Sports

0% 77% +$77

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 80 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-1,499	-$1,464	99¢	$-1481	-$17	08-21 13:01
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026?	No	-1,409	-$1,380	99¢	$-1397	-$17	10-21 08:12
Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	+1,100	$1,056	98¢	$1.1K	+$22	10-21 20:25
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	+985	$858	97¢	$959	+$101	10-23 22:53
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+926	$858	96¢	$884	+$27	10-23 09:23
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	No	+675	$613	97¢	$655	+$43	10-24 12:38
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	No	+620	$568	97¢	$603	+$35	10-06 16:18
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	+582	$553	97¢	$564	+$11	10-25 03:57
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	-530	-$521	99¢	$-523	-$2	09-17 17:00
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+386	$367	97¢	$376	+$8	08-25 05:35
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	-355	-$382	98¢	$-348	+$34	09-24 10:47
viktor orban arrested by december 31 20260708001041551	No	+340	$274	87¢	$295	+$21	07-08 11:31
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+300	$264	98¢	$294	+$30	07-02 16:34
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?	No	-293	-$289	99¢	$-289	$0	08-27 06:51
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	+300	$230	93¢	$278	+$48	06-15 18:18
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	+309	$264	84¢	$261	-$3	10-02 21:51
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	No	+260	$237	98¢	$254	+$18	09-11 03:42
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?	No	+265	$198	96¢	$253	+$55	05-20 13:00
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?	No	+280	$222	88¢	$248	+$26	09-18 19:19
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	+255	$237	96¢	$243	+$6	10-26 18:34
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	+255	$234	95¢	$242	+$7	10-07 03:29
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	No	+237	$222	97¢	$229	+$7	09-16 19:04
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	-220	-$212	99¢	$-218	-$6	10-26 18:32
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+215	$193	98¢	$211	+$18	10-21 20:22
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+202	$166	100¢	$202	+$36	07-06 15:02
New pandemic in 2026?	No	+180	$161	97¢	$174	+$13	10-06 23:39
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+180	$160	94¢	$170	+$10	08-21 09:01
Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026?	No	-175	-$170	97¢	$-170	+$1	09-21 18:22
Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026?	No	+171	$150	94¢	$159	+$10	08-28 02:35
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+156	$149	98¢	$153	+$4	08-21 11:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will silver si hit high 190 by end of february 182	41	$8.7K	4,026	4,741	-715	No	+$44	02-20 16:57
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	98	$6.1K	2,491	3,686	-1,195	No	-$21	05-06 08:20
will silver si hit high 140 by end of january 438 122 492	8	$3.7K	1,822	1,872	-50	No	+$0	01-31 08:40
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	44	$2.8K	900	1,945	-1,045	No	+$9	05-05 21:56
gc hit 6000 high jan 2026	11	$2.5K	987	1,485	-498	No	+$2	01-31 11:19
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April?	48	$2.4K	973	1,433	-460	No	+$3	04-26 20:30
was ilhan omar sprayed with pure water 783	11	$2.1K	1,045	1,100	-55	No	+$11	01-28 19:56
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026?	88	$2.1K	380	1,789	-1,409	open	—	10-21 08:12
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?	64	$2.1K	765	1,338	-573	No	$0	06-25 06:27
US strike on Cuba by January 31?	10	$2.0K	1,331	661	+670	No	+$25	02-01 06:33
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 7	14	$1.9K	717	1,370	-653	No	+$143	03-07 12:57
will silver si hit high 140 by end of february 384 774 953 735 356	4	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$65	02-26 17:38
will silver si hit high 185 by end of february 694 754	8	$1.8K	812	1,062	-250	No	+$24	02-14 00:19
will israel nuke iran by january 31	22	$1.8K	900	900	+0	No	+$6	01-30 11:56
will silver si hit high 180 by end of february 127 147	10	$1.8K	943	943	+0	No	+$95	02-21 07:46
nicols maduro released from custody by january 31 2026	3	$1.8K	900	900	+0	No	+$21	01-30 16:19
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	37	$1.8K	900	900	+0	No	+$34	02-13 03:29
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?	3	$1.8K	900	900	+0	No	+$37	02-01 06:27
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026?	98	$1.7K	716	1,071	-355	open	—	09-24 10:47
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$1.7K	900	900	+0	No	+$37	03-31 11:58
moltbook shutdown by feb 28	20	$1.7K	900	900	-0	No	+$71	02-28 21:49
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28 881	5	$1.7K	900	900	+0	No	+$69	03-01 00:20
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?	54	$1.7K	123	1,622	-1,499	open	—	08-21 13:01
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	5	$1.7K	830	900	-70	No	+$30	01-30 06:20
us strike on colombia by january 31	8	$1.7K	800	900	-100	No	+$36	01-30 11:46
will trump visit greenland by march 31	10	$1.6K	900	900	+0	No	+$173	03-20 21:41
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	19	$1.5K	913	605	+308	No	+$4	05-05 22:23
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?	21	$1.3K	676	676	+0	open	—	09-16 21:19
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?	139	$1.3K	231	1,082	-851	No	$0	06-10 04:49
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000?	25	$1.3K	873	773	+100	open	—	10-25 20:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 09:40:00	Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb6bb08…
10-27 02:31:38	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x786a76…
10-26 20:29:05	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xf80769…
10-26 20:29:03	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa43608…
10-26 20:29:03	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x846d99…
10-26 20:29:03	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x76e061…
10-26 18:34:02	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x34b57d…
10-26 18:32:41	Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xc5fab6…
10-26 14:00:56	Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x76500b…
10-26 13:57:35	Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x8cd3d8…
10-26 07:15:42	Will Plasma reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf9a469…
10-25 21:50:30	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb6f0bd…
10-25 20:07:15	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000?	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xde0c5d…
10-25 19:56:26	US defaults on debt by 2027?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xceee21…
10-25 19:18:27	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x2a3f50…
10-25 17:01:15	Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$8	0x336a4d…
10-25 17:01:08	Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xfa972f…
10-25 17:00:41	Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xf7cfcc…
10-25 13:37:20	Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x41ba77…
10-25 11:35:00	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x94b4fc…
10-25 10:27:45	Will Ethena reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x8bb8fe…
10-25 07:15:41	Will Plasma reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x767310…
10-25 05:58:18	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x1636d5…
10-25 03:57:24	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x9a723c…
10-25 02:54:36	Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x924eeb…
10-25 02:09:41	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	97	97¢	$94	0x3b36d4…
10-24 23:11:20	Will Dogecoin reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x532d8e…
10-24 23:06:20	Will Dogecoin reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf6ae58…
10-24 18:17:39	Will BNB reach $1300 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xb2ac07…
10-24 15:42:50	Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x7ebcc2…
10-24 13:10:24	Will BNB reach $1300 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xb0e14f…
10-24 12:40:42	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xe6da8c…
10-24 12:38:15	Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2584c9…
10-24 10:14:30	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x11c81f…
10-24 08:34:53	Will Plasma reach $1.60 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x7b4c8b…
10-24 07:54:06	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0x1a1fae…
10-24 07:49:30	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0x84a693…
10-24 07:15:38	Will Plasma reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x43b545…
10-24 06:47:27	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xe3f246…
10-23 23:28:36	Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x45ee40…
10-23 22:53:41	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x68e00d…
10-23 20:59:44	Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x4358eb…
10-23 17:57:44	Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xfb5b4f…
10-23 16:51:24	Will Ilhan Omar be deported by June 30, 2027	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x783c45…
10-23 13:21:08	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0ba96e…
10-23 12:54:50	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x16829b…
10-23 12:06:44	Will Russia invade another country by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x982164…
10-23 11:51:42	Will Ilhan Omar be deported by June 30, 2027	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x3b1a25…
10-23 09:23:56	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x743248…
10-23 09:19:02	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$9	0x277aa5…
10-23 08:26:06	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0xbf3128…
10-23 08:23:09	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0xcfd9ab…
10-23 08:20:45	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x1a01d8…
10-23 08:19:14	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xe12528…
10-23 08:18:17	Will Ethena reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x89d388…
10-23 08:09:47	Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xea9632…
10-23 08:06:29	Will Ethena reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xc675e1…
10-23 08:04:26	Will Ethena reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x52478f…
10-23 07:59:08	Will Plasma reach $1.60 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x0e96bf…
10-23 07:45:06	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xd441cb…
10-23 07:45:06	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb34042…
10-23 07:15:38	Will Plasma reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xfea819…
10-23 06:44:18	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xdf70d7…
10-23 06:09:44	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x328d19…
10-23 06:09:42	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xcd61a0…
10-23 03:02:39	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x7d7166…
10-22 21:33:56	New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x3cc6de…
10-22 19:43:53	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$42	0x6ecf99…
10-22 19:24:00	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x9c91af…
10-22 15:43:50	Will Ilhan Omar be deported by June 30, 2027	No	BUY	72	87¢	$63	0x893b15…
10-22 14:15:02	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x450d66…
10-22 12:44:51	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xead204…
10-22 12:04:14	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x5d0d7b…
10-22 10:46:47	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x3f3eec…
10-22 10:11:03	Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xe08d3a…
10-22 08:55:03	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x1de430…
10-22 07:12:03	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0xf33ef7…
10-22 07:10:29	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x4694b2…
10-22 07:07:32	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x4a746e…
10-22 06:27:07	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xd6cba2…
10-22 06:18:26	Will world GDP growth be 3.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x4491a3…
10-22 05:18:02	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x652cf9…
10-22 04:38:45	France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xeac25d…
10-22 01:59:54	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x077566…
10-21 20:26:50	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x58e0e1…
10-21 20:25:21	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$960	0x3f4ea4…
10-21 20:22:39	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x425ad6…
10-21 20:16:21	Plague pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xd2c916…
10-21 19:01:54	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x42fae0…
10-21 19:01:51	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbe889d…
10-21 17:50:39	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xe4c405…
10-21 16:05:00	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xfe4060…
10-21 15:25:57	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x453342…
10-21 15:25:54	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xd34fd6…
10-21 15:22:33	New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x8f67f8…
10-21 15:07:38	Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$2	0x547a3a…
10-21 14:40:42	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x4ff785…
10-21 14:39:39	Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 75,000 and 80,000?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x58c133…
10-21 14:26:24	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x148d98…
10-21 13:54:00	Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x88e70c…