Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,182
$363 in 24h
Trades
59
Unique wallets
26
Liquidity
$2,894
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-01
last 06-20 12:36
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 6 | $16 | $523 | $507 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $25 | $3 | +$21 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | $1 | $16 | $15 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 11 | $10 | $20 | $10 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $18 | — | +$18 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $16 | $16 |
| Median | 2 | — | $1 | $1 |
| Below median | 2 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $14 | $523 | $509 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | $6 | — | +$6 |
| unranked | 10 | $5 | $23 | $18 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | +569 | $523 | $523 | 14 | 06-12 15:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +156 | $10 | $10 | 3 | 06-20 04:53 |
| Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | +147 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 06-20 04:52 |
| Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | +80 | $5 | $5 | 6 | 06-19 01:33 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +55 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-20 04:52 |
| Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | +50 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-20 04:52 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +33 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-20 12:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | +21 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-20 08:58 |
| Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | No | +17 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-12 15:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x3ecf…c85d | Yes | +16 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-05 03:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b72…a958 | Yes | +16 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-05 03:12 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-20 12:36:05 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x91ffbf… |
| 06-20 12:36:05 | (anonymous) 0x2c81…d9df | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x91ffbf… |
| 06-20 12:36:05 | (anonymous) 0x6ed1…a7d0 | No | SELL | 26 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x91ffbf… |
| 06-20 12:36:05 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | SELL | 78 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x91ffbf… |
| 06-20 08:58:10 | (anonymous) 0x6ed1…a7d0 | No | SELL | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xe0dbcc… |
| 06-20 08:58:10 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | BUY | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xe0dbcc… |
| 06-20 04:53:32 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | SELL | 52 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x2d8ad8… |
| 06-20 04:53:32 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x2d8ad8… |
| 06-20 04:53:32 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 22 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x2d8ad8… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 140 | 7¢ | $10 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 62 | 6¢ | $4 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | BUY | 130 | 6¢ | $8 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | Able-Notice 0x932f…2cd8 | Yes | SELL | 509 | 7¢ | $34 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-19 01:33:50 | (anonymous) 0x3349…2afe | Yes | SELL | 25 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x953ab8… |
| 06-19 01:33:50 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | BUY | 18 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x953ab8… |
| 06-19 01:33:50 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x953ab8… |
| 06-18 13:36:34 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | BUY | 3 | 92¢ | $2 | 0x54e752… |
| 06-18 13:36:34 | (anonymous) 0xd21f…88bd | No | SELL | 3 | 92¢ | $2 | 0x54e752… |
| 06-15 13:54:39 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x01a794… |
| 06-15 13:54:39 | (anonymous) 0xa3c2…df3d | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x01a794… |
| 06-12 15:50:06 | (anonymous) 0x545a…32c3 | No | SELL | 21 | 92¢ | $20 | 0x758571… |
| 06-12 15:50:06 | Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | No | BUY | 17 | 92¢ | $16 | 0x758571… |
| 06-12 15:50:06 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 4 | 92¢ | $4 | 0x758571… |
| 06-12 11:22:28 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 2 | 92¢ | $2 | 0xd9d4ec… |
| 06-12 11:22:28 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 2 | 92¢ | $2 | 0xd9d4ec… |
| 06-10 10:00:16 | (anonymous) 0x6664…614e | No | SELL | 25 | 92¢ | $23 | 0x16bfea… |
| 06-10 10:00:16 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 25 | 92¢ | $23 | 0x16bfea… |
| 06-08 00:27:19 | Optimal-Charter 0xab18…467d | No | SELL | 79 | 92¢ | $73 | 0xddf25e… |
| 06-08 00:27:19 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 79 | 92¢ | $73 | 0xddf25e… |
| 06-08 00:25:09 | Optimal-Charter 0xab18…467d | No | SELL | 237 | 92¢ | $218 | 0xb73d90… |
| 06-08 00:25:09 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 237 | 92¢ | $218 | 0xb73d90… |
| 06-05 07:41:46 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x5be5ce… |
| 06-05 07:41:46 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x5be5ce… |
| 06-05 07:41:18 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x6a799f… |
| 06-05 07:41:18 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x6a799f… |
| 06-05 03:13:04 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x9ecbe0… |
| 06-05 03:13:04 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x9ecbe0… |
| 06-05 03:12:03 | (anonymous) 0x3ecf…c85d | Yes | BUY | 16 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x49f19c… |
| 06-05 03:12:03 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 16 | 92¢ | $15 | 0x49f19c… |
| 06-05 03:12:01 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 16 | 92¢ | $15 | 0x9ed1e5… |
| 06-05 03:12:01 | (anonymous) 0x9b72…a958 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x9ed1e5… |
| 06-05 03:11:58 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x9ead79… |
| 06-05 03:11:58 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0x9ead79… |
| 06-04 19:22:13 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 4 | 92¢ | $4 | 0x037682… |
| 06-04 19:22:13 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 4 | 92¢ | $4 | 0x037682… |
| 06-02 09:43:50 | (anonymous) 0x3349…2afe | Yes | BUY | 25 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x6b554e… |
| 06-02 09:43:50 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 25 | 92¢ | $23 | 0x6b554e… |
| 06-01 22:06:24 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 100 | 92¢ | $92 | 0x242117… |
| 06-01 22:06:24 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 100 | 92¢ | $92 | 0x242117… |
| 06-01 00:30:15 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x7c167a… |
| 06-01 00:30:15 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x7c167a… |
| 06-01 00:30:15 | (anonymous) 0xe730…f0bb | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x10ecd1… |
| 06-01 00:30:15 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x10ecd1… |
| 06-01 00:30:03 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0x3c9568… |
| 06-01 00:30:03 | (anonymous) 0xe730…f0bb | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x3c9568… |
| 06-01 00:30:01 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0x3c1936… |
| 06-01 00:30:01 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x3c1936… |