Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$3,355
$363 in 24h
Trades
293
Unique wallets
97
Liquidity
$2,894
Latest YES mid
5¢
Latest NO mid
95¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-01
last 08-04 11:14
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 9 | $16 | $1.2K | $1.2K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 14 | $26 | $141 | $115 |
| 🐟 Fish | 9 | $11 | $38 | $27 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 65 | $45 | $352 | $307 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $18 | $16 | +$2 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| Median | 33 | — | $703 | $703 |
| Below median | 14 | $5 | $14 | $9 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $14 | — | +$14 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 5 | $15 | $610 | $594 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $6 | $65 | $59 |
| unranked | 30 | $40 | $336 | $296 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | +569 | $523 | $523 | 14 | 06-12 15:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | +413 | $392 | $392 | 26 | 08-01 15:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x33e9…1a74 | Yes | +400 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 07-03 23:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x61a6…de5f | Yes | +257 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 07-23 20:51 |
| Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | +246 | $232 | $232 | 12 | 07-23 20:51 |
| Burly-Chronometer 0x0524…1479 | No | +90 | $86 | $86 | 1 | 07-11 06:44 |
| Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | +80 | $5 | $5 | 6 | 06-19 01:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xa552…2e67 | No | +59 | $56 | $56 | 1 | 07-03 23:52 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +55 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-20 04:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xeef3…fb40 | No | +55 | $52 | $52 | 1 | 07-03 23:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x4cbf…e72d | No | +54 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 07-03 23:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x62ed…bfd3 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-03 23:52 |
| Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | +45 | $42 | $42 | 6 | 07-27 03:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x2ae9…aa1a | No | +42 | $40 | $40 | 3 | 06-29 18:30 |
| Productive-Cappelletti 0xc68f…85ad | No | +33 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 07-01 10:36 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +33 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-20 12:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6cf…b265 | No | +31 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 07-02 14:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x3811…b304 | No | +23 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 07-02 11:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | +21 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-20 08:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x3413…d913 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-24 14:29 |
| Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | No | +17 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-12 15:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x3ecf…c85d | Yes | +16 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-05 03:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b72…a958 | Yes | +16 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-05 03:12 |
| Milky-Developing 0xe8e6…cb46 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-13 05:50 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 11:14:47 | Scientific-Impala 0x07d1…8ffa | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xfe888d… |
| 08-04 11:14:47 | (anonymous) 0xf2c4…8c91 | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0xfe888d… |
| 08-01 15:32:42 | Shallow-Astrology 0x45cc…6400 | No | SELL | 153 | 95¢ | $145 | 0xdafa5a… |
| 08-01 15:32:42 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 153 | 95¢ | $145 | 0xdafa5a… |
| 07-31 04:15:17 | (anonymous) 0xcc0e…0834 | Yes | SELL | 90 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x5096d7… |
| 07-31 04:15:17 | (anonymous) 0xe086…26f9 | No | SELL | 48 | 96¢ | $46 | 0x5096d7… |
| 07-31 04:15:17 | (anonymous) 0x98fe…9545 | No | SELL | 17 | 96¢ | $17 | 0x5096d7… |
| 07-31 04:15:17 | (anonymous) 0xf2c4…8c91 | No | SELL | 24 | 96¢ | $23 | 0x5096d7… |
| 07-31 02:13:41 | Likely-Mama 0x2f0d…7ca3 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x0ed7e3… |
| 07-31 02:13:41 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x0ed7e3… |
| 07-31 02:13:39 | Deserted-Alley 0xbf6f…be8e | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x6aaa8c… |
| 07-31 02:13:39 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x6aaa8c… |
| 07-31 02:13:36 | Studious-Whelp 0x4956…2a4d | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x4d6787… |
| 07-31 02:13:36 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x4d6787… |
| 07-31 02:13:33 | Tidy-Leverage 0x6b92…d7b9 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xa76de0… |
| 07-31 02:13:33 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xa76de0… |
| 07-31 02:13:30 | Polished-Scheme 0xb62e…f989 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xd4fe29… |
| 07-31 02:13:30 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xd4fe29… |
| 07-31 02:01:02 | Deserted-Alley 0xbf6f…be8e | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xdeb88f… |
| 07-31 02:01:02 | (anonymous) 0x98fe…9545 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xdeb88f… |
| 07-31 02:01:02 | (anonymous) 0x98fe…9545 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xc5e0f1… |
| 07-31 02:01:02 | Likely-Mama 0x2f0d…7ca3 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xc5e0f1… |
| 07-31 02:01:00 | Studious-Whelp 0x4956…2a4d | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x838510… |
| 07-31 02:01:00 | (anonymous) 0x98fe…9545 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x838510… |
| 07-31 02:00:57 | Tidy-Leverage 0x6b92…d7b9 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x31c6b6… |
| 07-31 02:00:57 | (anonymous) 0x98fe…9545 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xb161c7… |
| 07-31 02:00:57 | Polished-Scheme 0xb62e…f989 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xb161c7… |
| 07-31 02:00:57 | (anonymous) 0x98fe…9545 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x31c6b6… |
| 07-29 10:20:17 | (anonymous) 0x98fe…9545 | No | SELL | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x547d42… |
| 07-29 10:20:17 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 35 | 96¢ | $34 | 0x547d42… |
| 07-29 10:20:17 | (anonymous) 0x1b46…6576 | No | SELL | 52 | 96¢ | $50 | 0x547d42… |
| 07-29 10:20:17 | Weary-Axis 0x6c39…0b36 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 4¢ | $8 | 0x547d42… |
| 07-29 10:20:17 | (anonymous) 0x57e8…0bdb | No | SELL | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0x547d42… |
| 07-29 10:20:17 | (anonymous) 0xef4c…e162 | No | SELL | 52 | 96¢ | $50 | 0x547d42… |
| 07-27 10:08:22 | Weary-Axis 0x6c39…0b36 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 5¢ | $10 | 0xff9f3c… |
| 07-27 10:08:22 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 200 | 95¢ | $190 | 0xff9f3c… |
| 07-27 03:13:15 | Shameful-Consulting 0x51b4…460e | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x4561c5… |
| 07-27 03:13:15 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x4561c5… |
| 07-27 03:13:12 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x1ee33d… |
| 07-27 03:13:12 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x5169c2… |
| 07-27 03:13:12 | Complex-Valuable 0xd927…e8fb | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x5169c2… |
| 07-27 03:13:12 | Triangular-Swanling 0x6866…00ff | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x1ee33d… |
| 07-27 03:13:09 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xca6f86… |
| 07-27 03:13:09 | Pleased-Hearsay 0xffe6…41fd | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xca6f86… |
| 07-27 03:13:03 | Bustling-Investor 0x911f…2c48 | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x8828de… |
| 07-27 03:13:03 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | BUY | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0x8828de… |
| 07-27 02:47:46 | Shameful-Consulting 0x51b4…460e | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xa16a43… |
| 07-27 02:47:46 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x690cd8… |
| 07-27 02:47:46 | Complex-Valuable 0xd927…e8fb | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x690cd8… |
| 07-27 02:47:46 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xa16a43… |
| 07-27 02:47:43 | Pleased-Hearsay 0xffe6…41fd | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xf0c877… |
| 07-27 02:47:43 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x3ac9e5… |
| 07-27 02:47:43 | Triangular-Swanling 0x6866…00ff | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x3ac9e5… |
| 07-27 02:47:43 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xf0c877… |
| 07-27 02:47:42 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x1a5727… |
| 07-27 02:47:42 | Bustling-Investor 0x911f…2c48 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x1a5727… |
| 07-23 20:51:43 | Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8 | No | BUY | 40 | 94¢ | $37 | 0x1efa2d… |
| 07-23 20:51:43 | (anonymous) 0x61a6…de5f | Yes | BUY | 257 | 6¢ | $14 | 0x1efa2d… |
| 07-23 20:51:43 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 30 | 94¢ | $28 | 0x1efa2d… |
| 07-23 20:51:43 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x1efa2d… |
| 07-23 01:31:39 | Creepy-Phase 0x3403…cf73 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x8fdc33… |
| 07-23 01:31:39 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x8fdc33… |
| 07-23 01:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x52a5df… |
| 07-23 01:31:34 | Well-Documented-Sill 0xfc9b…0626 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xb7554d… |
| 07-23 01:31:34 | Oddball-Household 0xaaaa…a02f | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xd62ad6… |
| 07-23 01:31:34 | Boring-Standoff 0x6802…2199 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x64d99c… |
| 07-23 01:31:34 | Unfinished-Carload 0x7811…0068 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xadc776… |
| 07-23 01:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xb7554d… |
| 07-23 01:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xd62ad6… |
| 07-23 01:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xadc776… |
| 07-23 01:31:34 | Immense-Sovereignty 0xbdd5…a9ba | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x52a5df… |
| 07-23 01:31:34 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x64d99c… |
| 07-23 01:31:33 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x824356… |
| 07-23 01:31:33 | Young-Xylophone 0x4c2b…39ed | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x824356… |
| 07-23 01:25:24 | Boring-Standoff 0x6802…2199 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xfd38e0… |
| 07-23 01:25:24 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xfd38e0… |
| 07-23 01:24:39 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x0c02f5… |
| 07-23 01:24:39 | Young-Xylophone 0x4c2b…39ed | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x0c02f5… |
| 07-23 01:24:01 | Creepy-Phase 0x3403…cf73 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xc2006a… |
| 07-23 01:24:01 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xc2006a… |
| 07-23 01:23:52 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x945346… |
| 07-23 01:23:52 | Well-Documented-Sill 0xfc9b…0626 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x945346… |
| 07-23 01:23:49 | Immense-Sovereignty 0xbdd5…a9ba | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x17f75f… |
| 07-23 01:23:49 | Unfinished-Carload 0x7811…0068 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xa695c3… |
| 07-23 01:23:49 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x30a89f… |
| 07-23 01:23:49 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x17f75f… |
| 07-23 01:23:49 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xa695c3… |
| 07-23 01:23:49 | Oddball-Household 0xaaaa…a02f | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x30a89f… |
| 07-22 08:07:48 | Embarrassed-Lymphocyte 0xf82a…d221 | No | SELL | 16 | 95¢ | $15 | 0x1ad460… |
| 07-22 08:07:48 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 16 | 95¢ | $15 | 0x1ad460… |
| 07-22 07:49:57 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x190432… |
| 07-22 07:49:57 | Distant-Judo 0x9310…3b46 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x190432… |
| 07-22 07:49:54 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xda374d… |
| 07-22 07:49:54 | Great-Compassion 0xb773…a581 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xda374d… |
| 07-22 07:49:42 | Snarling-Stepson 0x5255…08eb | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x135a37… |
| 07-22 07:49:42 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xf2529f… |
| 07-22 07:49:42 | Wavy-Bourgeoisie 0x3da3…6bab | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xf2529f… |
| 07-22 07:49:42 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x135a37… |
| 07-22 07:49:39 | (anonymous) 0x8931…a90c | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x0330fb… |
| 07-22 07:49:39 | Lone-Balalaika 0xec22…b31a | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x0330fb… |