Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
open
Total volume
$2,190
$363 in 24h
Trades
115
Unique wallets
49
Liquidity
$2,894
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-01
last 07-11 06:44
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $16 | $664 | $649 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 10 | $26 | $118 | $92 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $1 | $58 | $57 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 25 | $31 | $314 | $283 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $18 | $16 | +$2 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| Median | 8 | — | $172 | $172 |
| Below median | 3 | $5 | $1 | +$4 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $15 | $86 | $71 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $6 | $545 | $539 |
| unranked | 23 | $26 | $334 | $309 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | +569 | $523 | $523 | 14 | 06-12 15:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x33e9…1a74 | Yes | +400 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 07-03 23:52 |
| Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | +126 | $120 | $120 | 8 | 07-03 23:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +102 | $7 | $13 | 6 | 07-08 12:02 |
| Burly-Chronometer 0x0524…1479 | No | +90 | $86 | $86 | 1 | 07-11 06:44 |
| Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | +80 | $5 | $5 | 6 | 06-19 01:33 |
| Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | +76 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-21 23:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xa552…2e67 | No | +59 | $56 | $56 | 1 | 07-03 23:52 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +55 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 06-20 04:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xeef3…fb40 | No | +55 | $52 | $52 | 1 | 07-03 23:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x4cbf…e72d | No | +54 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 07-03 23:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x62ed…bfd3 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-03 23:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x2ae9…aa1a | No | +42 | $40 | $40 | 3 | 06-29 18:30 |
| Productive-Cappelletti 0xc68f…85ad | No | +33 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 07-01 10:36 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +33 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-20 12:36 |
| (anonymous) 0xc6cf…b265 | No | +31 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 07-02 14:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x3811…b304 | No | +23 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 07-02 11:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | +21 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-20 08:58 |
| (anonymous) 0x3413…d913 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-24 14:29 |
| Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | No | +17 | $16 | $16 | 1 | 06-12 15:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x3ecf…c85d | Yes | +16 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-05 03:12 |
| (anonymous) 0x9b72…a958 | Yes | +16 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-05 03:12 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 06:44:23 | Burly-Chronometer 0x0524…1479 | No | BUY | 90 | 96¢ | $86 | 0x208f31… |
| 07-11 06:44:23 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 12 | 96¢ | $11 | 0x208f31… |
| 07-11 06:44:23 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 78 | 96¢ | $75 | 0x208f31… |
| 07-08 12:02:38 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x5a1bf9… |
| 07-08 12:02:38 | (anonymous) 0x320a…781e | No | SELL | 3 | 95¢ | $3 | 0x5a1bf9… |
| 07-06 03:07:05 | Sociable-Resistance 0xc440…2e0e | No | SELL | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0x821522… |
| 07-06 03:07:05 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x821522… |
| 07-03 23:52:41 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 30 | 95¢ | $28 | 0xf897b4… |
| 07-03 23:52:41 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 30 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xf897b4… |
| 07-03 23:52:25 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x4ef80a… |
| 07-03 23:52:25 | (anonymous) 0xeef3…fb40 | No | BUY | 55 | 95¢ | $52 | 0x4ef80a… |
| 07-03 23:52:25 | (anonymous) 0x33e9…1a74 | Yes | BUY | 400 | 5¢ | $20 | 0x4ef80a… |
| 07-03 23:52:25 | (anonymous) 0x62ed…bfd3 | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x4ef80a… |
| 07-03 23:52:25 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 23 | 95¢ | $22 | 0x4ef80a… |
| 07-03 23:52:25 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 30 | 95¢ | $28 | 0x4ef80a… |
| 07-03 23:52:25 | (anonymous) 0x4cbf…e72d | No | BUY | 54 | 95¢ | $51 | 0x4ef80a… |
| 07-03 23:52:25 | (anonymous) 0xa552…2e67 | No | BUY | 59 | 95¢ | $56 | 0x4ef80a… |
| 07-03 23:52:25 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 104 | 95¢ | $99 | 0x4ef80a… |
| 07-02 14:37:13 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 31 | 96¢ | $30 | 0x07bbe9… |
| 07-02 14:37:13 | (anonymous) 0xc6cf…b265 | No | BUY | 31 | 96¢ | $30 | 0x07bbe9… |
| 07-02 11:22:13 | (anonymous) 0x3811…b304 | No | BUY | 23 | 96¢ | $22 | 0x49578f… |
| 07-02 11:22:13 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 23 | 96¢ | $22 | 0x49578f… |
| 07-01 10:36:53 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 33 | 96¢ | $32 | 0x10875c… |
| 07-01 10:36:53 | Productive-Cappelletti 0xc68f…85ad | No | BUY | 33 | 96¢ | $32 | 0x10875c… |
| 06-30 05:29:46 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x7250b7… |
| 06-30 05:29:46 | Sociable-Resistance 0xc440…2e0e | No | SELL | 11 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x7250b7… |
| 06-30 00:55:19 | Severe-Raiment 0xcbaa…4ea3 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x7e8d54… |
| 06-30 00:55:19 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x7e8d54… |
| 06-30 00:55:16 | Soupy-Granny 0x9b2f…3ddd | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xa189e4… |
| 06-30 00:55:16 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xa189e4… |
| 06-30 00:55:14 | Well-Worn-Cashier 0xd9c4…4e2f | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x9cd02e… |
| 06-30 00:55:14 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x9cd02e… |
| 06-30 00:55:13 | Warlike-Wholesaler 0xe9a4…d04e | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xe32d89… |
| 06-30 00:55:13 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0xe32d89… |
| 06-30 00:55:11 | Authentic-Retrospective 0x1aac…80a0 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x51e9ae… |
| 06-30 00:55:11 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x51e9ae… |
| 06-30 00:14:01 | Authentic-Retrospective 0x1aac…80a0 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x283322… |
| 06-30 00:14:01 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x283322… |
| 06-30 00:13:53 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xcbdc2f… |
| 06-30 00:13:53 | Soupy-Granny 0x9b2f…3ddd | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x817b20… |
| 06-30 00:13:53 | Well-Worn-Cashier 0xd9c4…4e2f | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xcbdc2f… |
| 06-30 00:13:53 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x817b20… |
| 06-30 00:13:53 | Severe-Raiment 0xcbaa…4ea3 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x500f29… |
| 06-30 00:13:53 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x500f29… |
| 06-30 00:13:50 | Warlike-Wholesaler 0xe9a4…d04e | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x3662b9… |
| 06-30 00:13:50 | Beautiful-Thistle 0x7bd9…bd75 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x3662b9… |
| 06-29 18:30:52 | (anonymous) 0x2ae9…aa1a | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x8fe033… |
| 06-29 18:30:52 | Precious-Physical 0xe8a6…644b | No | BUY | 6 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x8fe033… |
| 06-29 18:30:52 | Sociable-Resistance 0xc440…2e0e | No | SELL | 7 | 95¢ | $6 | 0x8fe033… |
| 06-24 14:29:32 | (anonymous) 0x2ae9…aa1a | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x9e7dcb… |
| 06-24 14:29:32 | (anonymous) 0x3413…d913 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x9e7dcb… |
| 06-23 10:50:47 | (anonymous) 0x2ae9…aa1a | No | BUY | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xb5e594… |
| 06-23 10:50:47 | Delightful-Thanks 0x75b0…e7b7 | No | SELL | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xb5e594… |
| 06-21 23:06:28 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 147 | 5¢ | $7 | 0x544dfa… |
| 06-21 23:06:28 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x544dfa… |
| 06-21 23:06:28 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | SELL | 120 | 95¢ | $114 | 0x544dfa… |
| 06-20 12:36:05 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | SELL | 78 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x91ffbf… |
| 06-20 12:36:05 | (anonymous) 0x6ed1…a7d0 | No | SELL | 26 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x91ffbf… |
| 06-20 12:36:05 | (anonymous) 0x2c81…d9df | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x91ffbf… |
| 06-20 12:36:05 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x91ffbf… |
| 06-20 08:58:10 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | BUY | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xe0dbcc… |
| 06-20 08:58:10 | (anonymous) 0x6ed1…a7d0 | No | SELL | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xe0dbcc… |
| 06-20 04:53:32 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | SELL | 52 | 6¢ | $3 | 0x2d8ad8… |
| 06-20 04:53:32 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x2d8ad8… |
| 06-20 04:53:32 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 22 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x2d8ad8… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | BUY | 130 | 6¢ | $8 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | Able-Notice 0x932f…2cd8 | Yes | SELL | 509 | 7¢ | $34 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 62 | 6¢ | $4 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-20 04:52:37 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 140 | 7¢ | $10 | 0xb35020… |
| 06-19 01:33:50 | (anonymous) 0x3349…2afe | Yes | SELL | 25 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x953ab8… |
| 06-19 01:33:50 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | BUY | 18 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x953ab8… |
| 06-19 01:33:50 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x953ab8… |
| 06-18 13:36:34 | (anonymous) 0xd21f…88bd | No | SELL | 3 | 92¢ | $2 | 0x54e752… |
| 06-18 13:36:34 | Unnatural-Expansion 0x64ad…ca63 | No | BUY | 3 | 92¢ | $2 | 0x54e752… |
| 06-15 13:54:39 | (anonymous) 0xa3c2…df3d | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x01a794… |
| 06-15 13:54:39 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x01a794… |
| 06-12 15:50:06 | (anonymous) 0x545a…32c3 | No | SELL | 21 | 92¢ | $20 | 0x758571… |
| 06-12 15:50:06 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 4 | 92¢ | $4 | 0x758571… |
| 06-12 15:50:06 | Limited-Spokesman 0xa58c…56e3 | No | BUY | 17 | 92¢ | $16 | 0x758571… |
| 06-12 11:22:28 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 2 | 92¢ | $2 | 0xd9d4ec… |
| 06-12 11:22:28 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 2 | 92¢ | $2 | 0xd9d4ec… |
| 06-10 10:00:16 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 25 | 92¢ | $23 | 0x16bfea… |
| 06-10 10:00:16 | (anonymous) 0x6664…614e | No | SELL | 25 | 92¢ | $23 | 0x16bfea… |
| 06-08 00:27:19 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 79 | 92¢ | $73 | 0xddf25e… |
| 06-08 00:27:19 | Optimal-Charter 0xab18…467d | No | SELL | 79 | 92¢ | $73 | 0xddf25e… |
| 06-08 00:25:09 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 237 | 92¢ | $218 | 0xb73d90… |
| 06-08 00:25:09 | Optimal-Charter 0xab18…467d | No | SELL | 237 | 92¢ | $218 | 0xb73d90… |
| 06-05 07:41:46 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x5be5ce… |
| 06-05 07:41:46 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x5be5ce… |
| 06-05 07:41:18 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x6a799f… |
| 06-05 07:41:18 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | BUY | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x6a799f… |
| 06-05 03:13:04 | Deadly-Grid 0x57ee…8112 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x9ecbe0… |
| 06-05 03:13:04 | Ordinary-Bird 0x5296…6d7b | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x9ecbe0… |
| 06-05 03:12:03 | (anonymous) 0x3ecf…c85d | Yes | BUY | 16 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x49f19c… |
| 06-05 03:12:03 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 16 | 92¢ | $15 | 0x49f19c… |
| 06-05 03:12:01 | (anonymous) 0x9b72…a958 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x9ed1e5… |
| 06-05 03:12:01 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 16 | 92¢ | $15 | 0x9ed1e5… |
| 06-05 03:11:58 | Straight-Apprehension 0x0362…449e | No | BUY | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0x9ead79… |